GL crooser, two of them on my list today.

Result bet 76.

Le Maitre Chat   Un Pl  -2pts(-£20)

Running total      -48.5pts (-£485) 

Bet(s) 77,78 & 79.

1pt E.W. Bathos 13.45 Haydock 14-1 with a few, 12-1 generally 
1pt E.W. Grand Inquisitor 16.15 Ascot 12-1 generally available this morning (5places)
1/2pt E.W. Double (12-1 & 12-1)

Use a BOG firm.

Today I'm relying on a couple more horses from the notebook, both seem to be reasonable value in their respective races, with both Imo looking to hold very decent chances in their contests.


The first at Haydock is a really nice class 3 handicap, it looks a race full of fairly unexposed types that will undoubtedly make progress as the season unfolds, I'd be amazed if it wasn't a race capable of throwing up a few winners in the immediate future. However it's today's winner I covet, with the Mark Johnston trained Bathos my idea of a horse that is miles better than his seasonal bow on tapeta at Wolverhampton 6 weeks ago. I personally struggle to get this trainer right, as he has that many horses in different yards he seems to come in and out of form as regular as clockwork. Yesterday's offering produced a couple of winners and a few frame efforts, which could be an indicator his string(s) are about to come back in form, but that remark as speculative as panning for gold.

Bathos looked highly progressive in his 2yrold campaign, winning 4 nurseries off the trot, ascending from class 5 to a class 2 contest within those runs, all at around a mile on turf and all on a decent surface, adding best part of 2 stone to his mark in the process.  He did disappoint in soft ground on his final start of the season last year, a combination of soft ground and a busy campaign a couple of excuses that could have accounted for such a run.  His seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton was in a fairly warm race, but nothing went right for him on that occasion. Having reared as the gates opened and took his time to get into stride by the time they had ran a furlong he was approximately 10 lengths adrift at the rear of the field, but most importantly he was 20 or so lengths off the speed which was being set by stablemate Monsarrat. He took plenty of encouraging to make his ground by Adrian Nicholls, but did consent to do so and as they passed the 3 pole made a huge move around the wide outside to sit within two or three lengths of the pace as the straightened up for home. Taking into consideration the ground he made up in such a short space of time it was understandable his race was run when they leveled up, Adrian Nicholls merely giving him a hand ride up to the line, finishing an extremely credible 7th, beaten just over 6 lengths. That should have put him spot on for today, and is nicely berthed to attack early (providing he jumps on terms) as he does look a horse that’s happy bowling along in front or at least helping a decent pace along. Paul Mulrennan takes over who has a very decent record for the yard, and is 1-1 when riding Bathos, who could be set to resume progress at quite rewarding odds.


The Victoria Cup is always a devilishly difficult race to workout, but having looked at the race I'm happy to keep on side another notebook horse, the Sir Michael Stoute trained Grand Inquisitor.  He was quite progressive last season as a 3 yrold, running in some well contested handicaps at the back end of summer and not beaten too far in those contests, with the winners and close up horses in each of those respective events looking capable of winning pattern races. His recent comeback was at Newmarket in the mud, and having been outpaced a little in the early exchanges just could not get involved at the business end, wherever Ryan Moore tried to navigate a passage the route was blocked by a horse coming in or across him on at least  3 or 4 occasions, as a result was spared a hard ride and came home under hand riding a never nearer 6th.   Judging by yesterday evenings straight mile the place to be drawn at Ascot looks centre, so in (19) he looks reasonably berthed to be on the ground in the middle of the course that all jockeys seemed to want to be on yesterday. In the absence of Ryan Moore who is riding for team O'Brien at Lingfield Ted Duran gets the nod, but I'm not really a great Ted Durcan fan. However he is at least having plenty of success from the nice opportunities that have been presented to him by Sir Michael, who does seem to have his horses in the most sensational form presently, Grand Inquisitor could well  be set to continue both parties good run of form.

GL if you get involved.

As always I wish you the best of luck mate.
Excellent write up as usual.
I'm with Buckstay at 14s in the Vic, hopefully Spencer will be on a good day and the horse will produce its devastating turn of foot.

Not sure on the arrangements Rob, but Spencer gave it a great ride last time it won in Oct, would be happy with a similar outcome.
All the best.

Gl ROB

You see Bathos very similarly to me today, I have a stats based (placement/trainer profiling) Mark Johnston thread and though there are a couple of slight concerns with this horse, the placement looks decent for this runner to me.

fingers crossed for us

dead heat 5th grand inquisitor...could have been worse.

Arrange these words into a well known phrase or saying, in 30 seconds!

Moment barn at f*cking I hit door a couldn't the!

Where's he gone?

He knows I'm only joking!

Seriously, I consider him to be the best judge on the forum, well second best!

You better hurry up, I ain't got that long to live!

Aaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

If it's any consolation, I have Lucky Beggar top-rated albeit by just 1 lb!

Good Luck, always!

Result bet 80.

Lucky Beggar   Un Pl -4pts (-£40)

Running total      -55.5pts (-£555)


Bet 81 & 82.


E.W. Lucky 15 (£1 E.W. = 3pts in total)

Kimberella   16.00 Thirsk 5-1
Manatee Bay 16.35 Thirsk 16-1
Imperial Aviator 16.30 Newbury 7-2
Arthenus 17.35 Newbury 7-2

1/2pt E.W. Manatee Bay 16-1 generally, use BOG






Any realistic punter involved in horse racing knows a poor spell of form is inevitable, discipline and patience is of paramount importance when going through such a prolonged unprofitable period. Having taken the decision this season to concentrate on higher level handicaps, the right opportunities for me have been fairly sporadic, normally Saturdays and festival mid week racing are what I now find myself concentrating on. During such barren periods like the one I now find myself in approaching races seems that much more laboured, processing and decision making when analysing form is always questioned that little bit more, possibly down to the confidence factor. When it gets to this stage I quite often shut up shop and give myself 2 or 3 weeks away form the sport, this purely just to give myself a break from the old routine and recharge the batteries. Saying that I have a notebook horse running today, also I've been drawn to a few others who's chance is reflected in their respective odds, so with confidence low in relation to finding winners and the awareness that my betting bank is not in a position to absorb a big points loss today I've decided to just throw a few points at an E.W. lucky 15, not everyone's cup of tea but It's a bet I quite like form time to time.


A small addendum to this bet will be an additional E.W. single on my notebook horse, who I feel is well worth backing as a stand alone bet in relation to his double figured price.


And on that note I will start with said horse, Manatee Bay, who is trained by David Nicholls, and when it comes to training sprinters Imo he's still up there with the best of them despite the class of animal he now tends to have in his yard. Manatee Bay seems to be a horse that is adaptable regards ground conditions, but he does seem to be at home over the quick surface he will undoubtedly encounter at Thirsk today, 9.3 on the going stick to be suggesting nothing but this type of ground. He is also a sprinter that has been fairly consistent in his 3 seasons to date, making pleasing enough improvement in each of those campaigns, consistently finishing off each with a higher rating than when starting out. During his last 2 campaigns he has improved significantly for his seasonal reappearance, a close 2nd and a 1st on his second start back, ironically both on the same mark as was his reappearance run and both around this time in May( the win over today's C/D). Today, just like Lto he is contesting off 77, with that run miles better than the result, having been much too far out of his ground as a result of his poor start and being taken in behind he made up many lengths from 2 out to the furlong pole, never in a position to get at the leaders and finished his race off with running still to give. Today he looks to be drawn on the right side of the track, which Imo has been 4-5 lengths quicker in recent meetings, and has plenty of horses around him over there almost guaranteed to run the race to suit him, Franny Norton also positive ( On board for 3 from 4 of his wins) and looks to have been underestimated by the books at 16-1.



For obvious reasons I'm also a fan of Kimberella in the previous contest, despite the yard throwing three at the race I'm of the opinion he is the one to be on. When winning Lto he did so with more authority than the eventual winning distance would suggest, beating a couple of horses that were in the form of their lives, looking to settle that contest more efficiently than the 5lb penalty he incurred for that victory , and Imo still has room to maneuver in relation to his current mark. Franny Norton again on board, with Kimberella also given a kind stall to embark from, where he should once again be given a nice tow into the contest and hopefully be produced to get involved at the finish.


In the London Gold Cup handicap at Newbury there looks a very well assembled field of 3yrolds, but the one that I really think could be well ahead of his mark could be the Roger Charlton trained Imperial Aviator. He has the potential to be absolutely thrown in off 85 today, with the horse he beat when pulling well clear of the remainder in a reasonable maiden winning his maiden Nto by an effortless 8 lengths, that horse of Sir Michael Stoute's is entered in the Derby & the Edward the VII at Royal Ascot. Imperial Aviator is obviously a nice horse in his own right, and on the face of it looks well treated, but against such an unexposed progressive set of horses it's arguable that his current price suggests value, regardless of that he looks to hold plenty of potential and should give another good account of himself today.


In the conclusion to the Newbury card I'll be hoping  Arthenus is good enough to help my wager along in some capacity, and could be set to resume last seasons excellent progress in the handicapping ranks. His 6th Lto on his seasonal reappearance is better than both the beaten distance and finishing position would suggest over that 9F at Newmarket, having been in behind a wall of horses as the race developed passing the cutaway(2 1/2F out), Fred Tylicki managed to get some clear daylight to go at and the horse responded well, lengthening nicely enough as he was sent for the judge. However  his momentum was halted and daylight taken by his stablemate and eventual winner at a crucial point in those closing stages, Luke Morris merely compounding the issue by keeping him in behind on another of today's rivals Strong Steps, it's debatable as to where he would have finished but it would have been closer than where he did. Ground  and trip  looks fine, with the fair galloping expanse of Newbury also a positive regarding his chance, again at his price it's very debatable regards value, but I personally think he can go well in relation to his current mark.




My bet(s) were placed earlier with B365, BOG, I'm aware some have now drifted but I'm on at prices detailed above.   




GL if you get involved

Cheers Norfolk, well and truly needed I may add

All the best with your selections today therobster hopefully Manatee Bay will be on a going day massive price if he is

Well, that was awful from Arthenus. Never went a yard.

robster you need a clean slate, it might be mad for a page with -55.5pts but we want you exclusively at onthesnaff.co.uk, we will be live by the end of the month, let me know

GL therobster27 I think Joey's Destiny is a good ew bet today your reasonings are spot on I found the dash too hard but GL with Mukaynis

Result bet(s)83, 84 & 85.

Mukaynis        Pl    + 2.5pts
Joey's Destiny Unpl   - 2pts
Double          Lost  - 1pt

Running total  -59pts (-£590)

Bet 86.

1pt E.W. Long Awaited  14.55 Goodwood, 12-1 generally use a BOG firm.

In the veteran sprint on today's Goodwood card  likely favourite Pettochside looks short enough at the head of the market all things considered, but there's no denying he  has an excellent record over C/D  ahead of this race. However the mark he contests off could be a significant stumbling block regarding his chances, having contested 12 races with marks ranging from 71-75 prior to today's race he's only managed to get placed once, and has never won off the back of a victory when his mark has been increased. At his price stable switcher Long Awaited makes more appeal, having been claimed recently via a race at Wolverhampton out of the David Barron yard, today he makes his debut for Conor Dore. His far from consistent profile means he's not a horse to place maximum faith in, but is very capable when on a going day and his mark has worked it's way down to an all time career low of just 81.

For a sprinter of his age he's still got fairly low mileage, and is just the type of cast off horse this yard excels with. Despite not winning at Goodwood he's at least shown a liking for the C/D by running a few nice races from as many tries, those contests much better than the event he tackles today. He's a horse that really appreciates a race that falls apart and coming through horses, so looking at today's line up it's a race that's surely going to be run at a break neck pace that will undoubtedly suit his hold up style of racing. I'm certain he still has enough ability to figure at this level on turf, if so he could have a say in this with his fair share of luck in running.

GL if you get involved.

Spice Fair also a non runner in last