There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 319 comments are related to the topic:
Today's thought(s) thread for 2016.....
Today's thought(s) thread for 2016.....
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 319
|
By:
Robster a safe Saturday anyway wd
 |
|
By:
all the best lobby hope it goes well
|
|
By:
Result bet 4
Le Reve Pl + 0.4pts (+ £4) Running total - 1.6pts (- £16) Bet 5. 1pt E.W. Mozoltov 14.20 Fairyhouse 14-1 B365 (1/4 odds a place) With nothing much doing on this side of the water in terms of quality racing I'm having a rare selection in Ireland, and on the card at Fairyhouse there appears a really nice Grade A contest, a chase handicap that roughly equates to a class 1, Grade 3 affair in Britain. Having gone through the runners and riders I thought at his price it was worth taking a chance with Mozoltov, who at fair double figured odds has enough talent within to spring a mini surprise in today's contest. You are obviously going to need to forgive his effort Lto in a decent renewal of that Cup race at Cheltenham, which was off the back of a 592 day absence. His backers pretty much knew their fate once he had got over the first in a fashion, Ruby immediately glancing down to his hind quarters which were probably strewn with birch such was that poor jump, a possible indicator something may have been amiss. Ruby persevered for about another mile or so, with Mololtov never having any real cut at his fences, running down plenty and looking a horse short on confidence, with the suspicion he could well have needed the outing despite how good the stable are at getting them fit. Connections have given him just short of a month to get over that prematurely ending come back run, I'd be fairly sure given this outfit he has been showing at home he still retains plenty of ability for them to be aiming him at races of this nature, although they naturally will be fairly limited as to where they can go in relation to his current mark. Today is only his 16th lifetime start, and has some pretty good form in the book in both jumping disciplines, but just fell short in both his contested grade 1 contests prior to his break. Whether those couple of poor efforts where ground related is very debatable, however his form with any heavy described in the going reads 2-1-2-1-3-1-3-1-1, in contrast his last 4 performances without heavy described in the going reading U-U-5-PU . With all the rain Ireland's had I'd expect today's ground to be "extremely" heavy, which will obviously suit. He will however need to have brushed up on his fencing, which hasn't always been the best during some of his chases to date, but at 14-1 it's simply a case of why the hell not, especially given the fact there are more than just him in the line up with questions to answer. GL if you get involved. |
|
By:
Hi rob
Took the 9/2 Bright New Dawn yesterday. Happy with that. |
|
By:
Facts • January 10, 2016 9:57 AM GMT
Hi rob Took the 9/2 Bright New Dawn yesterday. Happy with that. The only downside, it's 'The Weasel'wise!  |
|
By:
GL facts, in a way BND a little like Mozoltov, both haven't scaled the heights in this sphere as their hurdle and early novice chases(very similar achievements) may have suggested.
|
|
By:
Thanks for the write up Rob
G/L |
|
By:
TheNorfolkMafia 10 Jan 16 10:06 Facts • January 10, 2016 9:57 AM GMT Hi rob Took the 9/2 Bright New Dawn yesterday. Happy with that. The only downside, it's 'The Weasel'wise! Cry Bugger !!  |
|
By:
To be fair he has been in winning form lately, so there is hope the revival will continue
GL (both) |
|
By:
 |
|
By:
GL lobby.
|
|
By:
poor ride
 |
|
By:
Place counts Rob
WD |
|
By:
Ran well.
|
|
By:
Happy with the place, although I did get the impression the lad on board was looking after him a little.... May have a decent handicap in him on similar ground.
|
|
By:
Well done
|
|
By:
Nice place Robster, well done buddy.
|
|
By:
Result bet 5.
Mozoltov Pl +2.5pts (+£25) Running total + 0.9pts ( +£9 ) Bet 6. 1pt E.W. Glastonberry 16.10 Kempton 12-1 JC & L's, use BOG firm. Due to restricting my own personal betting to class 4 and above on the level, tomorrow looks fairly slim pickings for opportunities, that as you would expect for a run of the mill Monday in January. However, the 5th contest on the Kempton card is a tricky little sprint handicap, which falls within my filters in terms of a back-able event. Glastonberry is a mare that I'm interested in at her very fair odds of 12-1, in a race where nothing appears to be without some sort of a squeak. She does look pretty much in the grip of the handicapper, then in truth so do the rest of her rivals, with nothing in the field suggesting they are about to go on a sequence that would make the assessor look foolish. Unlike a couple in the race she doesn't bring any recent form to the table, in fact she's returning from a few months off and has usually needed a run from such a break during her last few campaigns. However, she has won once back from a similar sort of break, that the first time when ridden by George Baker, who is charged with getting the best out of her tomorrow. He has a fine association with this mare who probably takes a bit of knowing, and can boast a nice enough form line when up of 1-2-1-2-5-3-5-2-2-2-2. Glastonberry has probably had her most recent break by design, and has possibly been brought back tomorrow ahead of a winter / spring campaign, having some reasonable form in the book during this time in her previous couple of campaigns, with her first runs in January(which is tomorrow) producing a lifetime form line of 3-2-2-1. She has also been fairly consistent when contesting class 4 events on a poly surface, and looks a good stone better value on this type of surface than on turf. She also looks highly likely to get a decent pace to be anchored off, with no doubt connections deploying such tactics, which has served her well on numerous occasions and could be closing with purpose at the business end. GL if you get involved. |
|
By:
Good stuff Rob, nice EW
|
|
By:
 |
|
By:
Had a look at this race Robster and it does look devilishly tricky. I backed Light From Mars last week when he deadheated over 7fs at Kempton and whilst i think that 7f is his best trip i think the 6lb hike and drop to 6fs could well be his undoing. At the bottom of the h'cap Royal Normandy is the likely fav for scrambling home in a C5 from a 33/1 shot and goes up 5lb for that with Apprentice allowance reduced by 2lbs. Feel that Doctor Parkes wrong trip and Archie Stevens too high in weights and better at Wolver are out of it. Stellarta generally runs well here but marked up to its best but has a chance. Searchlight doesn't have much recent form and is still weightd to the hilt, Foreign Diplomat won a decent race at Chelmsford but was well btn at Wolver lto off this mark and this quicker surface may not help.
Which leaves your selection Glastonberry who looks better h'capped on turf imo and may just need this run and the horse i think has a decent chance in Yeeoow! Yeeoow runs well here with a C/D record of 12128442 from marks between 75-90, has also ran excellent races on GF ground on turf over 6fs, winning a C3 h'cap at Ascot off 90 and a close 2nd to Goldream at Newmarket from the same mark. I think that Mr Burke may have been running him on the slower surface at Chelmsford to get the h'capper to drop him a few pounds and it seems to have worked as in 3 runs there he's dropped 5lbs. He also gives a 1st ride to Justin Newman who has been around for ages but think he has had weight problems, he did ride quite a few winners for Bryan Smart a few seasons ago though and still takes another 5lbs off his back. At 12/1 still available i'll have a little interest EW on that one, good luck. |
|
By:
Think Glastonberry is a much better animal on a poly surface despite it's mark on turf stewarts, but everything you speak about in the write up is more or less on the lines I was thinking to be honest. Had Yeeoow on the shortlist, but the booking of Baker on Glastonberry was the clincher.
I may give Geoffrey Deacon a ring and check she still has 4 legs before they load her on the horse box, 12's out to generally 20-1 over night.... I will watch with interest, having just about written my £20 off in my head. GL and hope Yeeoow run's well for you. |
|
By:
See that you've influenced the market Rob 12/1 out to 50s!
 Only joking buddy, best of luck. |
|
By:
You must have lumped on again with your team Robster, halved in price now!
|
|
By:
Well done Robster, grabbed 3rd, i was way of the mark!
|
|
By:
nice drift better a place at 20's than 12's
decent run, well done  |
|
By:
ran well
|
|
By:
I must say stewarts when it drifted out to 40's with a few firms for some strange reason I was half tempted, but I'd just about written of my original stake so just let it go. As the dealer points out its still a 20-1 place as opposed to 12's as I backed it with a BOG firm, so have to be happy all thing considered
|
|
By:
Correction, correction!!!! Didn't even get paid BOG.... when did Coral's do away with this concession? settled as 12-1 the bar stewards.......every little helps
|
|
By:
not sure Rob they are doing a Ladbrokes and only after 9.00am
|
|
By:
have a look on OC,BOG is not offered with Coral for tomorrows racing
|
|
By:
Yes jodean, I checked there immediately...no BOG offered, can't recall an email regarding them stopping this.
|
|
By:
Result bet 6
Glastonberry Pl +1.4pts (+£14)  Running total + 2.3pts (+£23) |
|
By:
12-1 about a 20-1
365 had some 28-1 on offer with BOG but I missed that window ..good try could you blame George only watched it once live and looked to be turbo finish  |
|
By:
Personally thought Search Light was good value for the winning margin virgin, was in a similar position to the waited with Glastonberry when making his (what turned out to be a winning run), looked to stop a bit when he'd got to the front, hence Pat Cosgrave had to administer a few decent persuaders to keep his mind on the job. It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts.
|
|
By:
Happened to me some time ago. Didn't get BOG from VC on a bet, when queried, they confirmed the facility had been removed for my account. No notice received beforehand. Apparently they all have small print in T & Cs that state BOG can be removed at discretion of the Bookmaker..
Good place effort on your tip today, not far off winning. I never bother if selection drifts in price. |
|
By:
Bet 7. 1pt E.W. Winning Spark 15.10 Taunton 13-2 B365 (generally6-1) BOG...write up to follow...
|
|
By:
........Tomorrow at Taunton there are a couple of nice little class 3 races, with the latter of those contests the hurdle at 15.10 the race I'm interested in. Having done some preliminary workings around this race I was drawn to the chances of Winning Spark, but having been unable to complete my analysis prior to the 7-1 on offer with a couple firms I thought I'd avail myself to the 13-2 that was still available with B365, with any price in the region of 6-1 Imo fair enough value.
Having been handled by both John Hammond and Gary Moore, Winning Spark is now in the care of Jackie Du Plesis, a trainer I know absolutely nothing about, but seems to have done quite well with the limited stock she's trained over the years. She looks to be doing a reasonable job currently with Winning Spark, who has undoubtedly had his problems during his career to date. It's fair to say that this horse has thrived under new connections, and it's his latest piece of form that's convinced me he could be a fair bit better than his current mark of 115. The race in question was New Years day at Exeter, with ground conditions on the extremely testing side of heavy. Winning Spark was conceding weight to all, in particular he was trying to give the eventual winner, and potentially smart horse Braavos 9lb with the young lads claim. That day James Best crept Winning Spark round at the rear of the field for almost the entire journey, only advancing into the race as horses tired around him, looking to be nursed into the race as they turned for home. On the approach to 3 out Winning Spark was just a length off the eventual winner before coming to grief, and was yet to have been asked any serious questions. Who can say for sure what would have happened, but the mere fact Braavos was in the race off just a mark of 113 in hind sight was possibly a big ask for anything in that line up to beat him, having split a highly promising pair of novices on his previous outing at Aintree, those both being assessed to be 130+ animals after there next respective starts . Tomorrow Winning Spark heads back to a very favourable hunting ground in Taunton, with the trip and going also looking in his favour. Presently Jackie Du Plesis looks to have her string in fair order, I can't particularly see any real reasons as to why Winning Spark won't continue her good run at the foot of the handicap tomorrow. GL if you get involved. |
|
By:
Well played sir
|
|
By:
well done
|