Today's thought(s) thread for 2016.....

Result bet(s) 48,49,50 & 51.

Goken      Pl    - 0.125pt (- £1.25)
Anglophile Pl    + 0.375pt (+ £3.75)
Race Day   Pl    + 0.125pt (+ £1.25)
Treble Pl bit up + 2.75pts (+ £27.50)


Running total  - 25.9 pts (-£259)

Bet(s) 52 & 53.

1pt E.W. William Money 16.20 Haydock 10-1 generally
1pt E.W. Oscar Blue 14.35 Haydock 14-1 (when B365 reverted at 8.30)

Both bets struck with B365 , BOG.


It's Easter Saturday, which is nowadays associated with Haydock Park's finals day, with this years card as good as I've seen since it's inception in 2012. These type of events usually don't attract the higher ranked trainers, which is nice as it usually gives the trainers from lower echelons to have a decent payday on a Saturday for a change and also have a winner on the telly.

However, I will start with the horse that is not running in any of the finals races, but on today's good ground has underfoot conditions I'm convinced will help him outrun run his now double figured price with ease. William Money has ran in some fair staying races already this season, The Rehearsal and Eider at Newcastle, as well as a Borders National at Kelso, but despite looking to have a lively outsiders chance in all of those races he did not cut much ice in either. His biggest success to date was in the renewal of this contest last year, putting a disappointing run behind him in the Grimthorpe to spring a big surprise as the total rag of the field, but the manner he won was that of a hot pot favourite.

This season as a result of that performance he started off on a mark of 130, but has never at any stage thus far looked like he was capable of winning of any of his contested marks, Imo that very much down to the bottomless conditions that he's ran on in many of those races(bar his seasonal reappearance). Despite the fact he won the race last year on soft ground I really think he is a better animal on decent spring ground, and we are most definitely heading towards the time of year where he appears to come to himself, with his mark dropping to a very attractive 117 another factor that should aid his cause. His trainer Chris "Rambo" Grant looks to be turning a corner regards form, getting plenty placed and some winners already during this month, no surprise really as March over the years has been very kind to the stable regarding winners, lets hope William Money can add another.


Brian Ellison always seems to target this meeting over the years, and has had a fair degree of success. He has one in each race for owner P J Martin, it wouldn't surprise me if they weren't trying to emulate Richard Fahey's achievements on Ayr Gold Cup day, that little coup had been plotted a fair way out, my best guess for this one (if indeed it is one) was probably hatched at the turn of the year. Good luck to anyone throwing a few quid at a lucky 15 on those runners, but I personally am only interested in one of today's runners, Oscar Blue ridden by Will Kennedy.  Connections possibly did have Cheltenham aspirations for this horse, but in truth needed to win the qualifier he ran in pulling a cart to get a mark that would have gotten him in to the final. He qualified for a crack at today's race when finishing 3rd in a qualifier on the last day of February at Ayr, that race was the reason he went into my tracker. That day when ridden by Paddy Brennan Oscar Blue was not unduly persevered with when the front pair had went beyond recall in the 21F race, but still looked to have plenty left in the tank as he was nursed home under a "sympathetic" ride by his jockey, that a trip very much short of his optimum.

He has form lines with plenty, including point to point form with the strongly fancied Fingerontheswitch, and is entitled at today's weights to finish in front of that rival. He now gets his ground that has seen him win his NH flat race, maiden and novice hurdles, to go with that they have slung on the first time blinkers on and put Will Kennedy up who is 2 from 2 when riding him. 14-1 a very reasonable E.W. poke now tackling a trip that plays to his strengths.

GL if you get involved

Oscar Blue, Rob.

Would you still be as keen on him today if the ground was to get softer?

I feel like I should congratulate you on these mammoth write ups btw, better man than me.

Hi Ryan, I'd be happy with G/soft or on the softer side of good.... I know there are showers f/cast, but was hoping they would not alter the ground too dramatically from  what is currently described. However that going is possibly misleading as going stick reports would indicate it's already soft, my bets on so its possibly a case of hope for the best (as usuaul) GL with PTP by the way

If the weather reports are correct the rain not arriving at Haydock until after 3pm...

Yeah I've not really watched much racing from Haydock this season, so I'm guessing as to what the ground is like there myself.

I'm sure they said it was drizzling there on The Morning Line 30 mins ago or so.

Result bet(s) 52 & 53.

Oscar Blue     Un PL  -2pts (-£20)
William Money  Un PL  -2pts (-£20)

Running total       29.9pts (-£299)

Bet 54.

1pt E.W. Bollin Ace 16-1 SJ, 14-1 generally, BOG.

Today's Betfred hurdle series final is the 16.10 on the Sedgefield card, which looks a class 2 contest in name only, with the top rated horse being a fairly lowly 122 rated animal.  There does seem to be rather a few non-runners on the card, plenty because of the ground, I can only assume connections that have withdrawn were hoping for better ground than the currently described soft. I'd be amazed if it was anything like as soft as it has been during the winter months, and I'm hoping also the spring air can spark some improvement into the legs of Tim Easterbys Bollin Ace, who has drifted to a fairly backable price at 16-1 considering the now the non-runners.

His opening handicap mark of 110 looks to me as quite fair, especially given that he has ran in novice events where he has been in and around much higher rated horses, and to my eye has far from disgraced himself in all contests to date. His latest race in a novice event at Wetherby had a look of mission impossible about it, with the two who fought out the finish that day looking very smart prospects in the hurdling ranks, both I'd wager were 15-20lb better animals than the selection, that on heavy ground(GStick5.3). It's his penultimate race over C/D that has given me hope he's a better animal than 110, that was boxing day where the ground was heavy(GStick 5.0) and plugged on to finish a remote 3rd. The winner that day won his next couple of starts, with the runner up only finding the thriving Captain Redbeard too good on his next start, and the 4th home Nuts Well winning his latest race at Newcastle very nicely indeed. Today the GStick reading is 6.5 (that an indication to me it's not real soft winter ground), which can only be positive if you take into consideration He's by Bollin Eric, who appreciated a decent surface. Bollin Ace could well be a project for the future as the stock he's from usually progress and improve with time and racing, but I just can't help think there may be a big run in him today and at 16-1 it's just about worth the risk of finding out.

GL if you get involved.

Missed the race Robster but a length from glory well done

What was the Rule 4 Deduction?

Just in to watch the replay myself Virgin, just out pointed by another that looks to be ahead of his mark. No rule 4 TNM.

Result Bet 54.

Bollin Ace    Pl     + 2.2pts (+£22)

Running total      - 27.7pts  (-£277)

Bet 55.

1/2pt E.W. Portrait King 17.00 Fairyhouse 33-1 generally , use 5place forms and BOG.


Nothing much has caught my eye in terms of a bet on theses shores, but having gone over the Irish National for some time I'm willing to have a very small something on Portrait King.

At the age of 11 there won't be any dramatic improvement to be made, but in a race where you will need a horse that won't be inconvenienced by any hustle and bustle, will keep galloping and jumping when plenty others have cried enough, Portrait King will be high up on the short list.

At his age he possibly won't be catching many punters attentions, but double digit aged animals are more than capable of putting it up to there more junior counterparts, including twice in the last 4 renewals. Carrying less than 10-06 is also quite handy in a horses quest to succeed, 15 of the last 20 winners have done so, 10 of those 15 were under 10-03, a sure fire indicator that a featherweight and low BHA rating is a must(50% of last 10 winners were rated 132 or less). It's also a race that more often than not throws up a bigger priced winner, with 7 of the last 10 renewals going to horses that were sent off 20-1+. When you take into consideration some of that reading, Imo it takes quite a few out of the equation in today's event, in doing so it also gives the 33-1 Portrait King a better chance than you would have first assumed.

He now appears to be working himself into form, running a super race in the Eider behind Rocking Blues, who looked a bit of a handicap blot if truth be known. Connections come here today as it appears he won't get a run in the big one at Aintree, having looked likely to play a supporting role in that particular race last season before coming down 3 from home, at least showing that he is versatile as far as the ground goes, and surely won't be found out for the stamina test today's assignment will pose.

GL if you get involved.

Result bet 54.

Portrait King  Un Pl  -1pt(-£10)

Running total   -28.7pts (-£287)

Bet(s) 55,56 & 57.

1pt E.W. Wilde Inspiration 33-1 Coral (5places) 28-1 generally  (5places)
1pt E.W. Express Himself 10-1 generally (11's in places)        (5places)

1/2pt E.W. double at 28's & 10's with B365 , 5 places




The first race on today's Doncaster card is the Spring Mile, which accommodates those horses not quite high enough in the handicap to make the cut for the Lincoln, more often than not leaving connections disappointed if they have a potentially well handicapped younger horse missing out. Despite Predominance being half a stone out of the Lincoln reckoning, Imo he has the potential to be a wolf in sheep clothing in this line up, especially with the winter break giving him time to develop both physically and mentally and looks just the type of older horse that Willie Haggis usually gets to make the transition from handicap to pattern company. Despite his chance and others at the head of the betting that were also just shy of making the Lincoln, I've decided to take a flyer on a one, with his odds very rewarding should he manage to just even squeeze into the frame.


Wilde Inspiration appears to be a dependable enough sort given the right circumstances, with his mark in the grand scheme of things not looking too prohibitive, Imo he has plenty going for him in today's contest. Since joining Julie Camacho he appears a horse that maybe best to keep onside in the early part of the season, with his fist couple of runs back in the spring in each of his previous campaigns under her handling producing a form line of 2-1-2-1.  The softer surface he will encounter today is another huge positive, form with soft described in the going reads 2-1-1-3-2-4-4-3, form without soft  a fairly contrasting 9-7-2-2-5-5-1-8-16th. If he is to play a part in today's finish it won't be until very late on, so any sort of decent gallop will aid his cause considerably, the likelihood of getting one almost a given. It's also nice to see Connor Beasley back riding again after injury, winning a race of this stature will be a no doubt be a most welcome boost for the lad in terms of both exposure and confidence. He does seem to be able to get the best out of Wilde Inspiration, when riding has a record of 1-2-1, and has reasonable association with the yard in general.


In the main event half an hour or so later the dog's have been barking about the chances of Lord Of The Land for weeks, with the David O'meara's entire heading the market as an extremely well supported 5-1 clear favourite. People sitting with the 20-1 that was available about him when betting opened will be very pleased with themselves, but at today's odds and some of the comments the trainer has made about him..."Whether he is a miler or want's shorter time will tell" have me sceptical regards his chance, the ground also another major factor that had me looking elsewhere.

That elsewhere was at the chances of Express Himself, who has some extremely solid handicapping form in the book during his career to date, and it's hard to knock the consistency he has shown in these type of events along with his very progressive profile. His concluding run of last season was the one that makes me think there is plenty more to come, that a win over a mile at Haydock on an easy enough surface. Having blew the start by approximately 4 lengths he trailed the tails for the majority of the contest, Jim Crowley switching him off and looking to ride an ultra confident race. It actually  worked out ok, he was at least able to cover the move George Baker made on Mitchum Swagger, and despite those ahead quickening off fairly sedate early fractions Express himself found a rare turn of pace to mow down that extremely well handicapped horse, those pulling clear of their toiling rivals in the manner of a couple of decent animals. The runner up has franked the form quite nicely, only finding the improving Big Baz too good in a listed event at H.Q. in his next race, an indicator he was miles ahead of his mark when getting chinned off the selection. Despite the assessor shoveling 8lbs onto Express Himself's mark for that success it's arguable he still could have plenty in reserve, with Jim Crowley attempting to make it a hat trick of victories from as many rides, which is not impossible given he will get the race run to suit.

GL if you get involved.

good luck rob...you going to smash them books up soon.

well overdue a good one rob,GL

knot in wood • April 2, 2016 9:37 AM BST
good luck rob...you going to smash them books up soon.

If only he'd followed, 'The Weasel'wise!

He can't stop banging in winners plus write-ups to die for!

Well fairly close to securing a little bit of place money back, but just not quite my day.

TNM, that latter statement you've made is contextually wrong. It should have read " write-ups for the dead"

GL later at Newbury, I will be winning that Lady Godiva into ya account from sports book

winning * willing

TNM, that latter statement you've made is contextually wrong. It should have read " write-ups for the dead"

Result bet(s) 55,56 & 57.

Wilde Inspiration     Un Pl -2pts (-£20)
Express Himself       Un PL -2pts (-£20)
Double                 Lost -1pt  (-£10)

Running total           -33.7pts (-£337)


Bet(s) 58,59 & 60.


1pt E.W.Joey's Destiny 15.30 Doncaster 18-1 (10p R4)

2pts E.W. Treasury Notes 17.15 Doncaster   4-1
1pt E.W. Burano                ^^^^        12-1

1/4pt  E.W. doubles

Total staked = 9pts (£90)

All bets struck with B365, BOG.


Well having been caught out by the Doncaster going yesterday I will hopefully learn by that mistake, but I do get the feeling that the going would have been far worse than that described in the updates on plenty of racing sites sooner than punters got to know. Going by the times and those of soft ground a couple of years ago, yesterday Imho, could only have been heavy all over, so like me I'm sure many a punter will feel aggrieved with ground possibly the biggest factor when formulating a selection.


Anyhow, rant over and soapbox away, at least we know where we stand regards the going today(hopefully).


Having gone through the card a few horses appeal to me today, they don't exactly fall into the category of "Mud-lark", but they all look to handle extremely testing ground just fine.


I will start with Joey's Destiny in the 15.30 on the card, who for a 6yrold sprinter has fairly low mileage on the clock,  with his BHA rating of 95 just about summing him up, but Imo is capable of a performance off this type of mark  which  his current odds don't really reflect. Six of his last three appearances have been on ground described as heavy, those contests where a couple of class 2 handicaps and a Group2 on champions day. He ran as well as to be expected in that Group2, with his final run of the season over 7F behind Withernsea a decent effort also, that a race that was better in terms of quality than today's. He has been mainly contesting  class 2 handicaps in his last couple of campaigns, but during the same time has contested 3 races at today's level(class3), which produces a form line of 2-2-3, not beaten by much in either of those races.  The 2 at the start of the sequence was in this contest in 2014, that on a soft surface, and can count himself a little unlucky not to have reached Flyman on the run to the line that day.  The one thing he will appreciate is a blistering pace, It's debatable how fast they are likely to go off in the early exchanges, but with Whozthecat  and Adams Ale both drawn high he is sure to have something like the desired pace to set things up for him, 18-1 on the high side considering.

A little later on the card at 17.15 there is a nice class 4 ten furlong race, where I have been drawn to the David O'meara pair of animals for quite different reasons. The most interesting of the pair is the switcher Burano, who is making his debut for the yard. We all know how good David O'meara is at getting other yards quirky/souring types to improve, Burano most definitely in that category. In his pomp he was a 100+ horse, keeping some fairly decent company in his time, but for a horse of that ability did not really win that many races, with his career total to date a fairly uninspiring 3 from 36. That said O'Meara could have purchased him at the right time(and the right price £20K), especially now he has fallen to a career low mark of just 83 (last 2 wins off 87 & 88), the yard also wasting no time in gelding him ahead of his seasonal bow.

He has been fitted with head gear in the past, but all of his wins and placed form have been achieved without it, and whether he will handle today's heavy ground is an unknown, but he has handled and won on soft and has an additional 3lb of his back through Shirley Birkett's claim. If the gelding procedure has "straightened him out", then he could be an extremely well handicapped horse, and could not be in better hands to exploit such a mark. 12-1 very fair Imo.


The stable companion to Burano, Treasury Notes is the choice of retained jockey Danny Tudhope, and it's not hard to see why. He, like Burano is another to have made the switch David O'Meara, this during the summer of last year, with the O'Meara magic quickly working, racking up a win and a couple of close up placed efforts from as many runs. His latest run was his seasonal reappearance, that on heavy ground over a mile at Redcar, looking to travel kindly on that holding ground for a decent way in the contest. He was beaten that day by a very lightly raced type hailing from the David Barron, just lacking the resoluiton of that horse in the closing stages, with daylight back to the third home. I'm fairly certain he will improve for stepping up in trip, and being by Lope De Vega out of a Saddlers Wells mare he should once again appreciate underfoot conditions. I'm sure that run will have brought him on considerably, and did win his race last season having been turned out quickly off the back of his run from a break(albeit a shorter break on different ground). He's my idea of the winner, with progress surely to be made this season from his current mark of just 77.


My bets where on prior to writing this up, so prices have changed because of N/R's.


GL if you get involved.

3 of his last 6 appearances ^^^

'The Weasel'wise had another winner yesterday and the day before that and the.....

With write-ups to die for too!

Burano is definitely interesting given the angles you've mentioned I've had a little dabble at 12's.I fancied Arcano strongly when I saw the declarations and if he's right he'll be hard to keep out of the frame though his price has gone now.

I also found Acrano Gold fairly interesting regards today's race, but I just have a feeling he is going to be more suited to stiff 7 or mile on better ground, but something may have been amiss at the end of last season so who can say for sure. GL Fatlad

Gl today mate. Sure you gonna nail one soon. Cant say I'm too involved until flat settles down a bit.

Result bet(s) 58,59 & 60 (61+62 for the small doubles which are not previously indicated)

Joey's Destiny     Un PL  -2pts(-£20)
Treasury Notes     Un Pl  -4pts(-£40)
Burano             Pl  + 1.7pts(+£17)
Doubles            Lost   -1pt (-£10)

Running total          -39pts (-£390)

Not the greatest start to a year I've ever had, but still plenty of time to turn things around (if the betting bank holds out)


Bet 63.

1pt E.W. Al Co 16.20 Aintree 25-1 generally, use a BOG firm.

The listed handicap proceeding the Grand National is the race I'm most interested in on the card, where I think  Al Co could have a say at his current price of 25-1 with first time cheek pieces enlisted.

Judging him on his first couple of runs this season he'd be a 100-1 shot for this, but habitually has looked a horse that needs a few runs to get himself up to race fitness, the soft and heavy surface he encountered in either of those races would also not have been to his liking. His latest sharpener over hurdles at Doncaster was much more encouraging, going with plenty of zest for a long way in that contest, giving the outside up to know one for the vast majority, and at least when beaten could be seen plugging on again as the camera panned back to the chasing masses in behind.

His latest win was 2 years ago, that in the Scottish National, showing plenty of resolution that day to master Godsmejudge, who was of course defending his crown from the season before. His last couple of wins in this sphere have come off 136 & 140, with the assessor looking to cut him some real slack today, contesting this off a career low rating of 132. He fits quite nicely in with some recent trends to the race, with 7 of the last 8 winners doing so from a mark ranging between 131-138, with half of the winners over the last decade carrying less than 10-09 and 4 of the last 7 have been aged between 9&11. Bar his Scottish National victory all of his best runs and chase form has come up to and around this type of distance (3M / 3M2F), and seems to reserve his best for the spring. He does look suited to a decent surface, and during last years meeting was quite well supported quietly fancied 18-1 shot for the Grand National off a mark of 145, unfortunately for his supporters his race was over before it had even started.

Peter Bowen had been particularly quiet of the winter by his own standards, but looks very much to have turned a corner regarding the yards form, and it's always dangerous to discount this father and son combination in any staying chase no matter what the odds are. It's also worth noting that the last 3 Aprils have been good to the yard in terms of both prize money , winners and a level stake profit from those previous runners, I'm personally hoping Al Co can help contribute to those good recent April stats.



GL if you get involved.

ran well w/d on the place

WD with the place. Was 7-7.4 earlier on here even though it had been backed 25>20's. 6/1 TBP for 14/1 SP ain't bad at all.

Result bet 63.

Al Co        Pl    + 5.25pts (+£52.50)

Running total    - 33.75pts (-£337.50)


Bet(s) 64 & 65.

1pt E.W. Masters Hill 40-1 JC (4 places best price guarantee) 
1/2pt E.W. Goodtoknow 25-1 generally (BFspbk 5 places, BOG)

3pts staked in total

Both in 16.10 Ayr tomorrow - Scottish National. I'm on this morning in case prices change throughout the course of the day, will post reasoning later this evening..off to work now.

As promised (yesterday), better late than never I suppose


Today's Scottish National looks as you would expect a really competitive renewal, with plenty of old favourites heading to post, among them lining up will be former Grand National winner Pineau De Re,  who like a few others didn't make the cut of the big race last week, I'm sure all of those will have their supporters. I'm really interested in the place prospects of the Colin Tizzard trained Masters Hill, who at 40-1 was far too tempting not to have an investment in, with a little saver on Goodtoknow hailing from the Kerry Lee yard.


The fact Masters Hill has not won a handicap of any nature hardly bodes well for his chance in one of the more larger field races of that nature this season, but why should that put me off in light of last weeks Grand National winner. Like many horses in today's race he looks a thorough stayer, but he also looks a fairly ground dependent horse to give his running, Imo he will get as close to ideal underfoot conditions as you could hope for this afternoon. The ground at Ayr is currently described as soft, with good to soft places, which with the dry day and sunny intervals forecast could edge it towards more of a good to soft surface on both courses, that would suit Masters Hill just fine. In that respect it's been no surprise to see his latest couple of runs being his best of the season, his penultimate run in a veterans chase at Newbury signaled a return to form when staying on to finish 3rd to what turned out to be a fairly well handicapped Shotofvodka. His latest run also another step forward for the season when he possibly snatched defeat out of the jaws of a win when buffeting two out that day, re-rallying close home to almost get back up when going down narrowly to Goodtoknow over 28F at Taunton, a course that would not necessarily have suited.

Colin Tizzard on numerous occasions has publicly advised he's always thought a lot of this lad, and in one interview I watched post his poor run in the Rehearsal he suggested the 3mile slog in the mud around the galloping expanse of Gosforth Park nowhere near a desirable enough test for him. The Tizzards have had a superb season so far, despite plenty of the forums theories regards the upturn in the yards rise to prominence I'm just willing to accept it for what it's been and go with it. The booking of James Reveley has also been quite eye catching, who is riding winners left right and centre presently both here and France, Imo he does not always receive the accolades he deserves, so here's hoping he(to the best of my knowledge)can make his first ride for the yard an extremely memorable one.


The Tizzard's are not the only yard to have made changes to their set up and personnel, that leads me quite nicely on to my saver bet in the race, the Kerry Lee trained Goodtoknow. It would be an understatement to say that since Kerry Lee has taken over the licence from her father the change in fortune has been nothing short of remarkable, she seems to have breathed new life into what was a fairly stagnant if not declining set up.

In light of what she's already achieved in an excellent season, It's not inconceivable to think the yard could land another massive pot, Goodtoknow the horse charged with doing just that. This horse is a typical example of what Kerry Lee has achieved with the majority of her string already this season, improving this horse that had ran to a similar level as a 2nd season chaser (120 animal),into a horse that is now a 20lbs superior animal. Despite Goodtoknow looking an improving type and a horse that looks like an extreme test will suit, it was his run Lto when accounting narrowly for Maters Hill that has lead me to have a small saver on him, that form subsequently been given a boost by 3rd home Benvolio outstaying his rivals emphatically nto off the same mark. The yard as a whole have been synonymous with these ultra tough staying chasers for years, and have been renowned with maintaining a decent level of form well into the twilight of a horses career. Goodtoknow not in that category just yet, but it's fair to say that for the time being there could be much more to come, especially over a trip like today's.

GL if you get involved

PS. lets's hope I can celebrate my recent 10th Betfair anniversary with a winner, that would be nice

Fatlad 1981
03 Apr 16 10:42
Joined: 24 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 860 | Blogger: Fatlad 1981's blog
Burano is definitely interesting given the angles you've mentioned I've had a little dabble at 12's.I fancied Arcano strongly when I saw the declarations and if he's right he'll be hard to keep out of the frame though his price has gone now.
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therobster27

therobster27
03 Apr 16 10:53
Joined: 14 Apr 06
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I also found Acrano Gold fairly interesting regards today's race, but I just have a feeling he is going to be more suited to stiff 7 or mile on better ground, but something may have been amiss at the end of last season so who can say for sure. GL Fatlad

Hope you had a few quid on you were right about the drop in trip

Tried to reply yesterday fatlad re your question but could not post for some reason. Didn't back him (Arcano Gold), thought the trip would suit but still thought the ground was against him yesterday. Hope you kept the faith

I did keep the faith but if he wasn't drawn somewhere near the rail I wouldn't have backed him luckily got 1.My main fancy on the day was Related which I put up on my value thread but I misjudged him going on the ground,he'll be knocking around in some nice races this year but will struggle to win a Heritage h'cap but could still win a nice race.

Result bet(s) 64 & 65

Masters Hill     Un Pl -2pts (-£20)
Goodtoknow       Un Pl -1pt  (-£10)

Running Total     -36.75pts (-£367.50)




Bet(s) 66,67,68,69 & 70(combination doubles)

1/2pt E.W. Wilde Inspiration 14-1 & 1/2pt E.W. Express Himself 9-1 15.20 Haydock

1/2pt E.W. Hadrians Approach 16-1 & 1/2pt E.W. Measureofmydreama 14-1 16.10 Sandown (5places)

4 x 1/4pt E.W. doubles

All above on with B365, BOG... Total points staked 6pts.

It's always nice to see a decent price for a horse you have ear marked in your note book / tracker for it's next contest (should conditions be favorable), but it's truly annoying when your note book horses turn up contesting the same race. Having put up both Wilde Inspiration and Express Himself 3 weeks on this thread in the Spring Mile & Lincoln respectively I'm not going to desert either, but it will mean I'm splitting stakes.

And on those very lines it is very much a case deja vu in the last big show piece of the jump season at Sandown, it was in one respect very pleasing to see another horse turning up from my tracker at rewarding odds, not so pleasing the fact I really like another in the race. Yet again I can't bring myself to leaving either one out, so I will be splitting stakes once again just like in the earlier contest. The same principle will be applied to my doubles, which will also be smaller stakes to cover the four E.W. doubles just in case Lady Luck should decide to pay me a visit this week.


In the 15.20 at Haydock a couple of previous winners of the race turn up, Wilde Inspiration the most recent, I really do like his chance in a wide open affair. He is only a few pounds higher in the handicap when winning this last season, and always seems to come on a bundle for his initial reappearance, with his 2nd start back in each of his last couple of campaigns resulting in wins. I'm not convinced that the way the Spring Mile unfolded would not necessarily have suited, looking to race a little freely at times with no cover for the entire mile trip, just keeping on at the one pace in the closing stages. Quite a few like to be up with the pace in tomorrows contest, which could help keep the gallop honest, such a gallop will suit Wilde Inspiration and cover looks assured jumping from stall 4.

Express Himself will also have found his way in to many a note book, but again the way things panned out in the Lincoln may also not have helped his cause. Because of prevailing conditions that day I'm not certain the early fractions being set would have played to his strengths. Express Himself seems to be a horse that is capable of settling well off a real good gallop, and is usually asked into the race traveling powerfully, being produced late in the day and delivered well inside the final furlong to try and win his race. He hasn't won his races by any extravagant distances, this has possibly helped his mark, but most importantly I'm of the opinion he doesn't need to be in front too long. The conditions in the Lincoln were fairly desperate, but at one stage Express Himself would have gone very short in running, but once he tanked for a share of the lead seemed to flounder in the ground and got tired very quickly.  Tomorrow he has been drawn in the car park(17), but that not too much of a disadvantage for a horse that will undoubtedly be taken back in behind the field for cover, and does seem to like Haydock as a venue, with his last 3 visits producing a form line of 1-1-1, tomorrows better ground certain to see him in a better light.

The 16.10 at Sandown will always be in my mind the Whitehead Gold Cup, which has had over the years had seen some epic battles going on up the run in, the 1991 renewal my most vivid recollection of the race, Seagram, Cahervillahow and eventual winner thanks to the stewards Docklands Express jumping two out almost in a line, Cahervillahow would have kept the race in this day and age. I'm hoping Hadrian's Approach can add to some happy memories of this race, but if he's to succeed he will need to accomplish what both Royal Edge in the late 70's early 80's and Ad Hoc in the early 90's did, regain their crown the year after they lost it. Hadrians Approach is extremely lightly raced for a horse in this sphere of his age, but at least comes here without having a hard slog in the mud around Aintree thanks to unseating at the first, with this type of test much more suitable. Pro rata most of his best performance have come on right-handed track, with 3 of his 4 lifetime wins coming that way around. He's now contsting tomorrow on a career low handicap mark and will almost certainly appreciate the better ground, I'd al so be amazed despite contesting the Grand National if Nicky Henderson didn't have one eye on this race for him all season long, everything Imo points to a decent run.

That was my note book horse, with Measureofmydreams a horse I simply can't get away from, Imo looks to have a very good chance for making amends for his early Ayr exit and could very easily end up wrestling the trainers title out of Paul Nicholls hands into those of Willie Mullins. Just like Hadrians Approach his previous race was over before it hjad really started, but prior to his early exit at Ayr had been in excellent form, and when finishing 3rd in the amatuers race at the Cheltenham festival had the Scottish National winner in behind, with plenty of others running well and winning their next respective contests. Measureofmydreams was made 8-1 jt fav for that 28 runner grade3 handicap, yet despite how well he was punted that day tomorrow in the same grade with 8 less runners in opposition he is available at 6 points bigger at 14-1, that seems to me a little on the generous side.

GL if you get involved

hadrian's approach actually won the grand national....but without a jockey,done the complete course apparently henderson was not a happy chappy.

i bet the horse earlier in the week and did not know this until today.

good luck rob

same here KIW did not realise it had run the whole bloody race, probably be a good pub quiz question though regards what was first past the post in the 2016 National...the monies down so what will be will be. GL

same hear rob monies down and they talking about watering tonight,surely they should give the fast ground horses a chance after all the soft ground we have had.

i misread the write up.

he did not "win" the race but did jump the whole course riderless.

Kiw

Don't see a ' fast ground ' runner in the field.

Bloody hell rob. I'm worried about tomorrow now,
I'd already backed Express Myself and Measureofmydreams. 
Now I find you've backed then too.
Which means we're either  both right or both wrong.
My records show I have a chance, yours however,  ytd, leaves a lot of room for improvement. No disrespect intended.
Hopefully tomorrow your fortunes improves !

i have to go with it rob as ill kick myself one lands and i dont back it.

im on it like a car bonnet

perhaps "fast" ground is the wrong word facts but im pretty sure the druids nephew southfield theatre saint are just a par and hadrians approach would prefer good ground than soft.

Amazing scenes on the Betfair forum as 'facts' famed for 'having only one bet a day', lets it slip that he has had two bets

Good luck tomorrow, robster

"facts" may have only a tenuous grasp on his own opinion

GEORGE.B    22 Apr 16 21:52 
Amazing scenes on the Betfair forum as 'facts' famed for 'having only one bet a day', lets it slip that he has had two bets Shocked

Good luck tomorrow, robster


I have stated in the past ( many times) , that there are occasions, especially where Grade 1 Tracks and class 1 and 2 races are taking place, that I will have more than one bet. So not the ' shock horror' you declare I'm afraid

be afraid of nothing ,the truth is your own enemy

And others

I do hope my fortunes improve today facts, the dreadful start to the year I've encountered seems to be unshakable, but like anyone else who invests in horse racing you're only as good as your last winner (I'm sure they will present themselves sooner or later, not much later I hope)


But at least the way I bet gives me license to be "nearly right" and still have a reasonable return(especially in the place double respect), GL to us both and anyone else who fancies these beasts., they both look cracking races tbf.

Just had a scroll through my write up, WTF is the Whitehead Gold Cup * Whitbread, reading through you'd have thought I'd been drinking some of the stuff

Hope you followed up on Treasury Notes therobster27,I'm sure you would've left Burano at the price

If only he had followed 'The Weasel'wise!

Agree facts .... Fatlad I still had him and Burano in the tracker, however I made the choice to go with other horses in there.... I only ever bet on horses that are put up on the thread.  Treasury Notes wasn't the only un-backed horse that won yesterday from my tracker list, but simply thought that I was making the correct decision in backing the horses I did.

Morning mate.
Just keep doing what you have always done and the results will come, it will only take a couple of decent winners to get you back in the black. As I'm sure you know from keeping proper records each year, the profits usually come in spikes after long periods of treading water and the figures over the 12 months are what matters.

Result Bet(s) 66,67,68,69 & 70.


Wilde Inspiration   Pl    +1.25pts (+£12.50)
Express Himself    Un PL  -1pt     (-£10.00)
Measureofmydreams  Un PL  -1pt     (-£10.00)
Hadrians Approach  Un Pl  -1pt     (-£10.00)
Doubles             Lost  -2pts    (-£20.00)

Running Total        -40.5pts     (-£405.00)



Bet 71. 1pt E.W. Rusty Rocket 20-1 generally , use a BOG firm.

Having looked at today's 5F contest at Thirsk I've decided to have an interest in the race, with Paul Green's inmate Rusty Rocket my idea of a horse that could go well.

There are a few others that did initially catch the eye, C/D specialist Captain Dunne and Desert Ace are both dropping back down to a more accommodating level, with the Switcher horse Free Zone sure to be very popular in anticipation of the O'Meara improvement factor. The very short favourite Bapak Asmara could still have plenty more to come, but I would not be wading in at 13-8 not knowing for sure his wellbeing off the back of what I can only presume would have been some sort of injury. With that horse far too short and Free Zone's price already having the O'meara angle factored in it was time to look elsewhere, with Captain Dunne, Desert Ace and Rusty Rocket heading my short list of horses that were more interesting than the remainder.


The 20-1 on offer for Rusty Rocket was a fairly big deciding factor, but there are other positives that can be gleaned from his overall form that gives him (Imo) a better chance than those odds suggest.  He has won on decent quick ground, but I'd have been happier with slighlty more ease than the currently described good/gsoft in places, but none the less  should handle conditions just fine. He's a horse at his best when running 5F at a ferocious gallop, whether that's from the front or chasing such a breakneck pace, that assured with the likely candidates of Whozthecat or Captain Dunne in the line up. 


His mark of 81 just about sums him up, and has been either side of it by 4 or 5lbs for just about his entire racing career. Paul Green may have been a little shocked to see him go so close at 50-1 on his seasonal reappearance over Sothwell's 5F, but quickly reverted back to type Nto over Wolverhampton's quick 5F about a fortnight later. I have noticed that connections seem to be using the A.W. to prime him for a decent turf run. Having initially been given a run or couple of runs from any sort of reappearance on an artaficial surface he has a reasonable record when reverting to turf, a form line reading 1-5-2-1, on occasions being well supported. Last season is looking not too dissimilar to his current one, when he had two runs at  Wolverhampton (40 & 20-1), before winning on turf a well supported 9-4 fav. I wouldn't be the biggest surprise if  the money come once again, but he's a year older and in a slightly better race than last season, but at the price Imo he's well worth an E.W. punt.


GL if you get involved.

Appreciate the write up Robster. The favourite puts me off having any serious bets in the this. May just have a small ew on the old boy Captain Dunne purely out of sentiment. GL

Result bet 71.

Rusty Rocket  Un Pl  -2pts (-£20)

Running total  -42.5pts  (-£425)


Bet(s) 72,73,74 & 75.
 

2pts win Mutamakkin 14.00 Newmarket 3-1 generally

1pt E.W. Lincoln 14.50 Goodwood 8-1 B365 , 7-1 generally

1pt E.W. Gran Canaria Queen 17.45 Doncaster 25-1 generally

1/2pt E.W. Percy Street 16.55 Newmarket 33-1 generally (B365 1/4 odds)

Use BOG firms, total points staked 7pts.


I've a couple of note book horses running today, and a one that has caught the eye at Doncaster, to go with these I've been given a horse from an owner who advises me this is the best horse he's ever be involved in and they really think a lot of him, with his fairly recent seasonal bow a very long way off what they expected.


I will start with one of my note-book horses who goes in th 14.00 at Newmarket, the Sir Michael Stoute animal Mutamakkin. There is'nt really that much to go on in terms of his overall form, but visually he looks a really imposing type and can see him developing into a real nice older horse. His seasonal debut a fortnight ago was his first as a gelding, and despite looking a little run off his feet for most of the 7F contest, once they hit the rising ground in the closing stages he came home extremely well, giving the impression there was plenty left in the locker and needed to stap up in trip. His great big round knee suggest's todays G/soft ground will be perfect, as will stepping up to 9F on track. It's not beyond the realms of possability that this horse could be bound for pattern and group races in the not too distant future, Stoute fairly good at plotting a rise to the top with just this type of horse.

A little later at Goodwood another note-book horse is scheduled to take his chance in the14.50 race, that horse the Mick Channon trainded Lincoln. Last year ran an excellent 2nd in the Victoria Cup off a 4lb higher mark, I also get the feeling connections are again trying to plot him for that race, which would really mean winning something of this nature to enable him at least to have a chance of making the cut in terms of his mark. His recent come back run at Haydock is much better than his finishing position and beaten distance, Paddy Pilley just taking him to the rails and hoping some daylight would appear, travelling powerfully just waiting for a gap to appear, sadly for his supporters that day it didn't. The handicapper dropped him a little and will surely have done more at home on the gallops than what he did on his seasonal bow. He won't mind the ground and Charles Bishop takes back over, who looks to get on really well with him. He was rated 104 at his peak last season, and placed in a G3, he has become dagenerously well handicapped and Imo you are backing him at 8-1 for a trouble free run to get a return.

On the twilight card at Doncaster I'm really interested in Gran Canaria queen at her price of 25-1, she again was in the process of running a better race than her finishing positon would indicate on her return at Ripon recently. I just can't have her as nigh on outsider of this field, and last season when contesting this class(3) ran up a sequence of 4-1-2-1, running well in big handicaps such as the Great St Wilfred off a mark off 94. She is another horse that has dropped to an attractive mark, and like Lincoln her regular partner Rachel Richardson gets back in the plate, easing the horse of an additional 5lbs, has the ability to leave that seasonal reappearance miles behind her.


To cut a long story very short I was given Percy Street form the the bloke who owns him with Karl Burke, Joe Henderson, who I worked for as an apprentice in the early 90's and recently spoke with him at a funeral of a work colleague and friend of that particular era of my life. He suggetsed that this is the best horse he's had anything to do with, Karl Burke also thinks he is a very nice horse and could end up being top class. He did tell me he was travelling to Epsom to watch him Lto, but he did say they felt he would need it and would want better ground. I personally thought it wasn't a bad come back run behind So Mi Dar, but he will need to be miles better than that to figure in today's contest. I'm backing him on no other reason but the say so of the owner, but I'd hate for this to turn out to be a good horse and go unbacked today, hence my small involvement at huge odds.

GL if you get involved

Good to see you back again Rob, ATB mate.

Good luck today mate.
I'm with you on Mutamakkin, and also backed the Johnston horse at 28s.
Hope today is the big day you are due to get your year going.

therobster you had hard lines last week with Wilde Inspiration as he made a big move into the strong pace gl today

Hope today is the big day you are due to get your year going..... Polab I've been hoping that for months now Good support for Johnston horse, but still really sweet about Mutamakkin even in light of the drift. Paddy Power opened the book on Thursday, went 6-1 and I clambered to get my cash on at said price....but only offered a stake of £1.28 so just waited for today.  Still think he could be well supported late on, and I can't remember Stoute having this sort of start to a season for quite some time. GL today mate

GL crooser, two of them on my list today.

Result bet(s) 72,73,74 & 75.

Mutamakkin             Lost   -2pts  (-£20)
Lincoln                 Pl    +1pt   (+£10)
Gran Canaria Queen     Un Pl  -2pts  (-£20)
Percy Street           Un Pl  -1pt   (-£10)

Running total         -46.5pts (-£465)


Bet 76. 1pt E.W. Le Maitre Chat 15.10 Chester 16-1 generally, Wednesday (Chester Cup)

Despite the imminent  48hr decs for the Chester Cup I'm prepared to put my wager on today, the horse in question being Le Maitre Chat trained by Ian Williams. Looking at the way the race has been priced up those at the head of the market, Steve Rogers Eshtiaal and Quick Jack have been priced up as though they've already secured a plumb draw, with others that are well fancied such as Gang Warfare and Moonlight Landing looking short enough considering all of their recent progress has come on an artificial surface over the winter that has now been converted on to their respective turf marks. It also seems a race for horses aged between 4-6, with only 2 winners outside of  that age range coming from the last 17 renewals, and it's also a race that doesn't throw up that many shock winners, with 15 of the last 21 renewals being won by a horse 10-1 or less.

Ian Williams has not had Le Maitre Chat all that long, in fact having acquired the horse from the Clive Cox yard in August 2015 he's only had two starts for the yard, one of those races being the Cesarewitch At Newmarket. Having travelled well off the pace in that race he made smooth headway as the race started to develop up ahead, not navigating the greatest of passages through it has to be said when staying on very nicely to be 6th. He is a relitively unexposed type who could well be suited to extrem trips, and has plenty of form lines that tie him in with plenty ahead of him in the betting pecking order, and at Wednesdays weights he has every right to finish in and around those principles given the rub of the green in running. This race could have been the plan for a while, with connections booking the able services of Franny Norton to do the steering, who has a fairly decent record of riding this track over the years. It won't be surprising to learn it's been the turf track he's rode the most at during his career to date, it's also the track responsible for  his highest percentage regarding the ratio of wins to rides, which at such a unique track to ride has to be a huge positive. 

It's been a little bit of a quandary in relation to putting the bet on today and holding on for the overnight market to form, but just thought if he was given a really nice low draw to jump from his current price may contract significantly. At his current odds even with a wide double figured draw he could still just about be backed (probably get slightly bigger), that very much not the case to those that are single figured prices ahead of him in the betting.  If he was designated a favorable starting pitch, (Imo that would be stall 1 to 7 with 12 of last 19 winners from this range), he could well end up being a single figured price come the off, so I'm quite happy to be on at today's more favourable odds in that respect.

GL if you get involved

Result bet 76.

Le Maitre Chat   Un Pl  -2pts(-£20)

Running total      -48.5pts (-£485) 

Bet(s) 77,78 & 79.

1pt E.W. Bathos 13.45 Haydock 14-1 with a few, 12-1 generally 
1pt E.W. Grand Inquisitor 16.15 Ascot 12-1 generally available this morning (5places)
1/2pt E.W. Double (12-1 & 12-1)

Use a BOG firm.

Today I'm relying on a couple more horses from the notebook, both seem to be reasonable value in their respective races, with both Imo looking to hold very decent chances in their contests.


The first at Haydock is a really nice class 3 handicap, it looks a race full of fairly unexposed types that will undoubtedly make progress as the season unfolds, I'd be amazed if it wasn't a race capable of throwing up a few winners in the immediate future. However it's today's winner I covet, with the Mark Johnston trained Bathos my idea of a horse that is miles better than his seasonal bow on tapeta at Wolverhampton 6 weeks ago. I personally struggle to get this trainer right, as he has that many horses in different yards he seems to come in and out of form as regular as clockwork. Yesterday's offering produced a couple of winners and a few frame efforts, which could be an indicator his string(s) are about to come back in form, but that remark as speculative as panning for gold.

Bathos looked highly progressive in his 2yrold campaign, winning 4 nurseries off the trot, ascending from class 5 to a class 2 contest within those runs, all at around a mile on turf and all on a decent surface, adding best part of 2 stone to his mark in the process.  He did disappoint in soft ground on his final start of the season last year, a combination of soft ground and a busy campaign a couple of excuses that could have accounted for such a run.  His seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton was in a fairly warm race, but nothing went right for him on that occasion. Having reared as the gates opened and took his time to get into stride by the time they had ran a furlong he was approximately 10 lengths adrift at the rear of the field, but most importantly he was 20 or so lengths off the speed which was being set by stablemate Monsarrat. He took plenty of encouraging to make his ground by Adrian Nicholls, but did consent to do so and as they passed the 3 pole made a huge move around the wide outside to sit within two or three lengths of the pace as the straightened up for home. Taking into consideration the ground he made up in such a short space of time it was understandable his race was run when they leveled up, Adrian Nicholls merely giving him a hand ride up to the line, finishing an extremely credible 7th, beaten just over 6 lengths. That should have put him spot on for today, and is nicely berthed to attack early (providing he jumps on terms) as he does look a horse that’s happy bowling along in front or at least helping a decent pace along. Paul Mulrennan takes over who has a very decent record for the yard, and is 1-1 when riding Bathos, who could be set to resume progress at quite rewarding odds.


The Victoria Cup is always a devilishly difficult race to workout, but having looked at the race I'm happy to keep on side another notebook horse, the Sir Michael Stoute trained Grand Inquisitor.  He was quite progressive last season as a 3 yrold, running in some well contested handicaps at the back end of summer and not beaten too far in those contests, with the winners and close up horses in each of those respective events looking capable of winning pattern races. His recent comeback was at Newmarket in the mud, and having been outpaced a little in the early exchanges just could not get involved at the business end, wherever Ryan Moore tried to navigate a passage the route was blocked by a horse coming in or across him on at least  3 or 4 occasions, as a result was spared a hard ride and came home under hand riding a never nearer 6th.   Judging by yesterday evenings straight mile the place to be drawn at Ascot looks centre, so in (19) he looks reasonably berthed to be on the ground in the middle of the course that all jockeys seemed to want to be on yesterday. In the absence of Ryan Moore who is riding for team O'Brien at Lingfield Ted Duran gets the nod, but I'm not really a great Ted Durcan fan. However he is at least having plenty of success from the nice opportunities that have been presented to him by Sir Michael, who does seem to have his horses in the most sensational form presently, Grand Inquisitor could well  be set to continue both parties good run of form.

GL if you get involved.

A right-up two die four!

As always I wish you the best of luck mate.
Excellent write up as usual.
I'm with Buckstay at 14s in the Vic, hopefully Spencer will be on a good day and the horse will produce its devastating turn of foot.

GL Polab, thought off a BHA rating of 107 it's going to be tough, but not impossible. Just wondering who would have been the prefered jockey, Jamie Spencer or Jim Crowley? I thought Jim suceeded Jamie as 1st retained jockey  for Mrs Fitri Hay.... although he may have family loyalties riding for his sister-in-law on The Warrior.

Not sure on the arrangements Rob, but Spencer gave it a great ride last time it won in Oct, would be happy with a similar outcome.
All the best.

If you wait till 13.45 Rob, you'll miss the race.

Gl ROB

You see Bathos very similarly to me today, I have a stats based (placement/trainer profiling) Mark Johnston thread and though there are a couple of slight concerns with this horse, the placement looks decent for this runner to me.

fingers crossed for us

PHS , hope it doesn't take him those 5minutes to finish the race.
Everything crossed here stridingedge, GL

dead heat 5th grand inquisitor...could have been worse.

Totally agree KIW, pleased to be getting my money back on a horse I thought was 6th

Come on Norfolk elaborate, I'm no good at bloody catchphrase!

Arrange these words into a well known phrase or saying, in 30 seconds!

Moment barn at f*cking I hit door a couldn't the!

Times up!

Where's he gone?

Harsh. But fair

He knows I'm only joking!

Seriously, I consider him to be the best judge on the forum, well second best!

now if you had of posted a cows arse and a shovel I'd have clicked straight away, I know it's all about the "long game", but I think I'm going to apply for an extension all the same

You better hurry up, I ain't got that long to live!

Aaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

Result bet(s)77,78 & 79.

Bathos                     Un Pl  -2pts(-£20)
Grand Inquisitor DH 5th(cash back) 0pts
Double                     Lost   -1pt (-£10)

Running total                -51.5pts (-£515)


Bet 80.

2pts E.W. Lucky Beggar 14.10 York. 16-1 generally , use BOG firm.


The sprinters head to post for the first big field handicap on the York card, with plenty old favourites set to do battle for best part of 16K.  Following a sprinter in form can quite often be the easiest and safest  way of formulating a selection(s) in these tricky conundrums, with plenty today bringing  some nice recent winning and placed form to the table, but as a consequence plenty don't look particularly that well handicapped in relation to their winning chances today(Imo). I backed Lucky Beggar in a handicap at Doncaster  towards the back end of last season, he's been in my notebook for quite some time now, kept there waiting for the right time, place and circumstances to get back involved with this horse, That time by jove is now.

The notes I have detailed on my tracker are as follows... Flat straight  track, distance 5F, springtime on decent ground??.. The treble is up in that respect, the cherries on the cake being that this horse is now contesting off  a career low handicap mark of just 89(started last season on 104), there has been a crack apprentice booked in Ed Greatrex to relieve the horse of a further 5 lbs, and Charlie Hills has had  5 winners and 2 placed from his last 8 runners, the only thing that tempers my enthusiasm slightly is the draw(I'd have prefered him to be berthed5or6 boxes to his left, but hopefully he will race centre then drift over). Lucky Beggar has also shaped as if he's coming very much to the boil form wise, having been patiently ridden over 6F at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance at the beginning of April he merely kept on under a hand ride without troubling the judge, then approximately 4 weeks ago over 6F at Headquarters shot off like a scalded cat, isolated on the far side but had  pulled what looked like 5 or 6 lengths clear of the remainder on the stand side as they approached 2 out.  He was still leading just inside the final furlong, but as you would expect lost many places very quickly close home because of those earlier exertions, a run miles better than his finishing position would indicate. 16-1 looks a really decent E.W. poke today, I've backed him accordingly and hoping for a massive run from him today.

GL if you get involved.

If it's any consolation, I have Lucky Beggar top-rated albeit by just 1 lb!

Good Luck, always!

Cracking write up,I agree also about the draw scenario hopefully he can trap out and edge a bit left he's definitely the value play at 16's and I think Royal Birth will be a big danger though he is now priced up right.Gl today

Result bet 80.

Lucky Beggar   Un Pl -4pts (-£40)

Running total      -55.5pts (-£555)


Bet 81 & 82.


E.W. Lucky 15 (£1 E.W. = 3pts in total)

Kimberella   16.00 Thirsk 5-1
Manatee Bay 16.35 Thirsk 16-1
Imperial Aviator 16.30 Newbury 7-2
Arthenus 17.35 Newbury 7-2

1/2pt E.W. Manatee Bay 16-1 generally, use BOG






Any realistic punter involved in horse racing knows a poor spell of form is inevitable, discipline and patience is of paramount importance when going through such a prolonged unprofitable period. Having taken the decision this season to concentrate on higher level handicaps, the right opportunities for me have been fairly sporadic, normally Saturdays and festival mid week racing are what I now find myself concentrating on. During such barren periods like the one I now find myself in approaching races seems that much more laboured, processing and decision making when analysing form is always questioned that little bit more, possibly down to the confidence factor. When it gets to this stage I quite often shut up shop and give myself 2 or 3 weeks away form the sport, this purely just to give myself a break from the old routine and recharge the batteries. Saying that I have a notebook horse running today, also I've been drawn to a few others who's chance is reflected in their respective odds, so with confidence low in relation to finding winners and the awareness that my betting bank is not in a position to absorb a big points loss today I've decided to just throw a few points at an E.W. lucky 15, not everyone's cup of tea but It's a bet I quite like form time to time.


A small addendum to this bet will be an additional E.W. single on my notebook horse, who I feel is well worth backing as a stand alone bet in relation to his double figured price.


And on that note I will start with said horse, Manatee Bay, who is trained by David Nicholls, and when it comes to training sprinters Imo he's still up there with the best of them despite the class of animal he now tends to have in his yard. Manatee Bay seems to be a horse that is adaptable regards ground conditions, but he does seem to be at home over the quick surface he will undoubtedly encounter at Thirsk today, 9.3 on the going stick to be suggesting nothing but this type of ground. He is also a sprinter that has been fairly consistent in his 3 seasons to date, making pleasing enough improvement in each of those campaigns, consistently finishing off each with a higher rating than when starting out. During his last 2 campaigns he has improved significantly for his seasonal reappearance, a close 2nd and a 1st on his second start back, ironically both on the same mark as was his reappearance run and both around this time in May( the win over today's C/D). Today, just like Lto he is contesting off 77, with that run miles better than the result, having been much too far out of his ground as a result of his poor start and being taken in behind he made up many lengths from 2 out to the furlong pole, never in a position to get at the leaders and finished his race off with running still to give. Today he looks to be drawn on the right side of the track, which Imo has been 4-5 lengths quicker in recent meetings, and has plenty of horses around him over there almost guaranteed to run the race to suit him, Franny Norton also positive ( On board for 3 from 4 of his wins) and looks to have been underestimated by the books at 16-1.



For obvious reasons I'm also a fan of Kimberella in the previous contest, despite the yard throwing three at the race I'm of the opinion he is the one to be on. When winning Lto he did so with more authority than the eventual winning distance would suggest, beating a couple of horses that were in the form of their lives, looking to settle that contest more efficiently than the 5lb penalty he incurred for that victory , and Imo still has room to maneuver in relation to his current mark. Franny Norton again on board, with Kimberella also given a kind stall to embark from, where he should once again be given a nice tow into the contest and hopefully be produced to get involved at the finish.


In the London Gold Cup handicap at Newbury there looks a very well assembled field of 3yrolds, but the one that I really think could be well ahead of his mark could be the Roger Charlton trained Imperial Aviator. He has the potential to be absolutely thrown in off 85 today, with the horse he beat when pulling well clear of the remainder in a reasonable maiden winning his maiden Nto by an effortless 8 lengths, that horse of Sir Michael Stoute's is entered in the Derby & the Edward the VII at Royal Ascot. Imperial Aviator is obviously a nice horse in his own right, and on the face of it looks well treated, but against such an unexposed progressive set of horses it's arguable that his current price suggests value, regardless of that he looks to hold plenty of potential and should give another good account of himself today.


In the conclusion to the Newbury card I'll be hoping  Arthenus is good enough to help my wager along in some capacity, and could be set to resume last seasons excellent progress in the handicapping ranks. His 6th Lto on his seasonal reappearance is better than both the beaten distance and finishing position would suggest over that 9F at Newmarket, having been in behind a wall of horses as the race developed passing the cutaway(2 1/2F out), Fred Tylicki managed to get some clear daylight to go at and the horse responded well, lengthening nicely enough as he was sent for the judge. However  his momentum was halted and daylight taken by his stablemate and eventual winner at a crucial point in those closing stages, Luke Morris merely compounding the issue by keeping him in behind on another of today's rivals Strong Steps, it's debatable as to where he would have finished but it would have been closer than where he did. Ground  and trip  looks fine, with the fair galloping expanse of Newbury also a positive regarding his chance, again at his price it's very debatable regards value, but I personally think he can go well in relation to his current mark.




My bet(s) were placed earlier with B365, BOG, I'm aware some have now drifted but I'm on at prices detailed above.   




GL if you get involved

Sincerely, Good Luck!

Cheers Norfolk, well and truly needed I may add

Presumably 30pts in total Rob.

Agree on Arthenus. Fancy it but doesn't look value, and the drying ground, re-forecast as Good - GSIP is against it.

All the best with your selections today therobster hopefully Manatee Bay will be on a going day massive price if he is

Well done with Imperial Aviator, robster

Well, that was awful from Arthenus. Never went a yard.

Keep at it Rob  mate. As long as the bank is in place then no need for any drastic action. You have done it for years so no reason to think the year can't be turned around.

robster you need a clean slate, it might be mad for a page with -55.5pts but we want you exclusively at onthesnaff.co.uk, we will be live by the end of the month, let me know

Result bet(s) 81 & 82.

Lucky 15    -2pts (-£20)

Manatee Bay -1pt  (-£10)

Running total  - 58.5pts (-£585)


Bet 83,84 & 85.

1pt E.W. Mukaynis 15.45 Epsom 14-1 generally
1pt E.W. Joey's Destiny 17.50 Epsom 16-1 generally
1/2 pt E.W. double




Due to my poor form I decided to give myself a little break away from betting, which I quite often do when things aren't going my way, and during this time I've quite enjoyed watching racing without having any particular interest or opinions on the races. It's fair to say in doing so I've accrued plenty of notebook horses for various different reasons, but many in there are horses I think to be on handy enough marks, with their finishing positions during some of those contests better than the bare form would suggest. In that respect I'm willing to play one in each of the sprints on the Epsom card, Mukaynis in the Dash and Joey's Destiny in the lucky last.




I'm certain Mukaynis will have gone into many a notebook / tracker off the back of his Chester run behind Kimberella, which did not really appear to go to plan right from the outset. That day at Chester he appeared to have an extremely good draw, but as the gates opened Mukaynis jumped as he started, that split cost him half a length at the gate, missing it in a 5F sprint is bad enough, but to do it at Chester where horses automatically come out running left to the rail only means one thing, you will be shuffled back and have to suffer. In a nutshell that is what happened, Mukaynis in the blink of an eye found himself back in the pack 5 lengths or so off the speed. He did however have the natural speed and ability to quickly get back into a more promising position just of the speed as they turned for home, travelling kindly on the bridle a furlong or so off the pace, looking poised to reel in the pacesetters as he liked. However the bad luck continued for Shane Gary, now finding himself flanked by horses both to the right, left and ahead, with the gap he was hankering for to his right simply not materialising, thereafter merely hand riding Mukayis to the line. He is drawn in and around pace a plenty on the usually favoured stand side, with Seeking Magic, Caspian Prince and Kimberella all no doubt wanting to get on with things, and despite once again in that respect being a hostage to fortune hopefully the gaps will appear for Mukaynis to exploit, who will handle conditions just fine.


Joey's Destiny has been left in my tracker for a while now, but having watched his latest race at Windsor at the back end of last month I simply had to include him today. You have to go back a couple of years for his last win, but at least has worked his way back down to within a pound of that mark in respect of the handicap, and shaped Lto as though very much coming to hand. In the early stages of that 6F contest a few jocks appeared to be looking for a lead, as a result the first couple of furlongs did not appear that strong for such a contest, not much of a help for a hold up horse of his nature. As they headed under half way Joey's Destiny was still stone dead last, a good couple of lengths off the back of the main body of runners, but still travelling very kindly for Liam Keniry who looked in no particular hurry. The way the race developed as they quickened on the run for home was no help what so ever, the rail route he waited for closed and never reopened, Keniry switched in and around runners but by the time any real daylight appeared the race was all but over with Joey's Destiny yet to begin, but did consent to run on very nicely, serving notice that his return to the winners enclosure may not be too far away. I'm sure the pace he'll get today will be far more generous than that of the Windsor contest, and the additional ease in the ground another welcoming factor, hopefully he will also get the gaps required to run his race, if so he is capable of being involved.


GL if you get involved

GL therobster27 I think Joey's Destiny is a good ew bet today your reasonings are spot on I found the dash too hard but GL with Mukaynis

Good to see you back Robster. GL today

Result bet(s)83, 84 & 85.

Mukaynis        Pl    + 2.5pts
Joey's Destiny Unpl   - 2pts
Double          Lost  - 1pt

Running total  -59pts (-£590)

Bet 86.

1pt E.W. Long Awaited  14.55 Goodwood, 12-1 generally use a BOG firm.

In the veteran sprint on today's Goodwood card  likely favourite Pettochside looks short enough at the head of the market all things considered, but there's no denying he  has an excellent record over C/D  ahead of this race. However the mark he contests off could be a significant stumbling block regarding his chances, having contested 12 races with marks ranging from 71-75 prior to today's race he's only managed to get placed once, and has never won off the back of a victory when his mark has been increased. At his price stable switcher Long Awaited makes more appeal, having been claimed recently via a race at Wolverhampton out of the David Barron yard, today he makes his debut for Conor Dore. His far from consistent profile means he's not a horse to place maximum faith in, but is very capable when on a going day and his mark has worked it's way down to an all time career low of just 81.

For a sprinter of his age he's still got fairly low mileage, and is just the type of cast off horse this yard excels with. Despite not winning at Goodwood he's at least shown a liking for the C/D by running a few nice races from as many tries, those contests much better than the event he tackles today. He's a horse that really appreciates a race that falls apart and coming through horses, so looking at today's line up it's a race that's surely going to be run at a break neck pace that will undoubtedly suit his hold up style of racing. I'm certain he still has enough ability to figure at this level on turf, if so he could have a say in this with his fair share of luck in running.

GL if you get involved.

Result bet 86.

Long Awaited  Un Pl  -2pts


Running total -61pts (-£610)


Bet(s) 87,88 & 89.


1pt E.W. Red Tycoon 17.20 York 8-1 generally
1pt E.W. Spice Fair 17.05 Sandown 12-1 generally
1/2 pt E.W. Double


Use a BOG firm.


As usual there is plenty top class racing around the country on a Saturday, from a punting perspective with so much choice it can be hard deciding where and what to play. There is  also the added uncertainty of underfoot conditions, the type of showers that have been evident up and down the country this week very much the ones that can change going very quickly. Having browsed plenty of races I've decided to go with a couple of notebook horses, who run in the lucky last at each of their respective venues.


In the 17.20 at York Red Tycoon looks to be working his way back to form, and should get today's contest ran to suit his style of racing, with the handicapper also showing some gradual  mercy to his mark, 79 making him interesting enough in this particular race despite having yet to taste victory in any sort of handicap. Both of his last couple of starts have been better than the finishing result would tell you, travelling well off a generous pace on his penultimate start when a little short of room before consenting to merely keep on in the closing stages under a hand ride, but it's his latest run over 7F a Catterick that has made me think he's coming to the boil. Having be fairly tardily away that day he picked his way through the field nicely enough to eventually hold on for 3rd, but had no real chance of getting to the couple that finished in front of him, who both could have been quite nicely handicapped it has to be said. It's arguable he's nicely drawn today, but is certain to get a furious toe into the race considering the line up, and David Barron has booked Rown Scott to ease his already  diminishing mark by a further 7lbs, who is 2 from 5 for the yard in the last 12 months, boasting a tidy +£16.50 to a £1 level stake. 8-1 seems a solid enough E.W. price all things considered


Sandowns conclusion to their card is a 14F handicap, with Spice Fair no stranger to this race, having been 2nd and 1st  during the last 3 runnings. At the ripe old age of 9 you'd hardly expect any major improvement from this gelding, but in the spring took his hurdle mark to a whole new level, and Imo despite his advancing years holds the ability to go close today should things drop right for him. It looks for all the world that this race has been the target off the back of that solid spring hurdling campaign, being given a couple of month off to freshen up and then an extremely considerate pipe opener after that break in a fairly recent spin at Salisbury. That race would not have been run to suit him, with the first 3 home filling those positions from the drop of a flag, a sure fire indicator those three very much had things their own way during the contest. Despite those at the head of the race quickening in the straight, at the back of the telly Steve Drowne looked to be giving Spice Fair a mountain to climb, but eventually Drowne did realise it was a race and not a canter on the gallops, his mount running on without being allowed to threaten those that had always been handy. Tactically it might be a similar scenario today, but there are a few that like to go forward which may suggest a more even honest pace to sit in behind off. Frankie rides for the first time, but he seems to be enjoying a renaissance in his career presently and wouldn't need to do anything dramatic today to give Spice Fair a better ride than he received Lto, I'm sure there's a big run in this horse today considering his love of the course, especially over today's trip, who better than man of the moment Dettori to tease out a decent performance. 12-1 far too big with 3 places.


Good luck if you get involved..


I was on with B365 early this morning, however I do realise the price  has changed for Spice Far on account of non runners (now only 2 places).

Spice Fair also a non runner in last

Hope the tide turns soon Robster.