There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 81026 comments are related to the topic:
this is for people who like tips as they like racing and dont study form,
this is for people who like tips as they like racing and dont study form,
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 81,026
|
By:
Getting late.. *Probable* not probably! Duhhh.
|
|
By:
hi ryan just had look, on any known form you can only bet the horse with garanteed three year old top form, thats canford cliffs, yes xtension was right behind him but if you look at result that day it looks like high draw was favourable so canford cliffs ran a blinder.and form franked
with **** turpin run . so looks solid form and decent time to. |
|
By:
Think the problem with CC in the 2000 Guineas was that Hughes rode him like he wasn't going to stay, had way too much to do. I just can't see Xtension turning the form around either, thought he had the run of the race and no excuses. Don't know what to make of Steinbeck, even if he was fully fit, is he really good enough? CC is almost too obvious to back at 3/1.. and I want to, but even though SJ and VC are NRNB, no mention of GP.. under threat at 3/1 on betfair atm too.
|
|
By:
nrnb and gp at pp 11/4 though
|
|
By:
Thanks Ryan will get there soon.. think I had 5 placed out of the 8? Need to get a few more winners.
|
|
By:
Just emailed VC and SJ to see if they are GP.. as although a quarter of a point doesn't sound so much, for every hundred put on that's £25 difference.. which can make all the difference!
|
|
By:
You started off well though didn't you Kirty. Haha well mine placed at 12/1, and I managed to get the only favourite beat at Wetherby, shame I went for the wrong one though! Kirty, got any opinions on 2000 Guineas / Temple Stakes?
|
|
By:
tomorrow looks like some of mine that have chances, so hoping for my bank to start going in right direction, but patience will prevail im sure lol.
so will give my two for my continued quest, then i think i will give two to stick in also for you yankee lovers, just remember stake evenly and dont go crazy. foxtrot alpha -3 00 yarmouth £6 win camerooney -7.40 mussel £6 win |
|
By:
my other two for the yankkee lovers are.
granston 4 20 catterick. that'll do nicely 4 50 catterick |
|
By:
Ryan my views are pretty rubbish as I am more of a statsman but I am trying to learn more about the whole game so I can give better reasoning behind my selections,
I did the scoop 6 last week on Usaidits thread and had the winner in the first 3 races and 2nd placed in the 4th because the horse couldn't stay in a straight line and had 3rd and 4th in the final leg. I will run the figures through the spreadsheet I have and also factor in the jockey/trainer form and then get back to you.. :) |
|
By:
mepoor had Camerooney a few weeks back at around 33's if I remember rightly had been running at 8f and was entered into a 7f race? Ran a little eratically and I was sat at home shaking thinking get the bugger home.. :) Paid for my night out .. also placed next race at decent odds?
|
|
By:
All your selections done through stats? Not sure how to word it.. but surely opinion has to be involved somewhere?!
|
|
By:
yep that race he won , there is horses in that race came out and won since and was a grade 4, then he himself came out up to a grade 3 and run a great race just going down .
and the winner has now won to day in other grade 3, so his form is working out all over the place yet he is dropping to grade 5, he looks a good thing. but there is one thing worrying me in the form that makes nufoudh closer than i would like and i think i have maybe only a length or so on him so might be tighter than looks, but no matter how you weight it he should win. |
|
By:
No Ryan, I read the cards for US and also the form on Racing Post and what not and also keep notes of horses that I see run well,
The thing I mean is I use the draw bias and also take into account if the yards have been firing home winners, you also notice certain trainers will have purple patches across the season.. as I have only been playing since August I have to take a lot of my knowledge of how the race will be run on previous form (what I class as stats) sorry. I do not just stick a number into a spreadsheet and go with that, I have been sticking winning draws and distances into excel sheets for the last couple months to give myself a minds eye visual. :) |
|
By:
Guess this is why when you see the jumps, it doesn't look like it makes much sense?
 |
|
By:
Its like tonight Ryan just stuck the basic ratings into my spread sheet and it has thrown up the following:
HORSE GRAND TOTAL Kingsgate Native 38.4 Benbaun 21.4 Borderlescott 19.4 Total Gallery 17.4 Equiano 11.4 Blue Jack -9.6 Reverence -10.6 Wi Dud -17.6 Spin Cycle -18.6 Look Busy -23.6 Top rated and Spin Cycle with Jockey booking and recent trainer form standing out but need to look at draw bias and ground distance what not.. my play at intial looks would be play the 2 I mentioned.. |
|
By:
Right so the highest grand total is the selection yeah?
|
|
By:
Ryan, I am trying to learn a couple bits at a time so thought seeing I spent the winter on US and A/W I should concentrate on the flat season then when It gets to the next NH season I should have learnt enough from the people I have met on here to be able to play the game without going in blind.
|
|
By:
Confused as Spin Cycle is a negative grand total? And don't see 2 selections as "Top Rated" isn't a horse?!
|
|
By:
Guess NH is less predictable.. but that's why I love it, things aren't obvious and one's own judgement is probably the most influential factor. Guess it depends on where your success is though, if you naturally find flat and US racing more exciting than NH, then each to their own!
|
|
By:
No no.. I will look at why the horse is the top rated and then take into account the draw bias jockey booking and what not,
Last week I had the following posted up.. Leg 2 of the Scoop 6 Newmarket 2.15pm Good To Firm 1m Number of runners: 8 The Rowley Mile course is massively wide and due to the amount of racing on it the rails are constantly moved and different parts of it used, so it is difficult to be conclusive about any overall biases which exist. You need to watch the earlier races on the same day. The course is a straight course with a slightly inclined finish so if horses go off to fast in the 5 or 6 furlong races then they don’t get home HORSE GRAND TOTAL Draw Last results Vainglory 12.8 (2) -61484 St Moritz 7.8 (7) 115 Ilie Nastase 5.8 (8) 320547 Dajen 3.8 (1) 26111 Invisible Man 9.8 (5) 4119 Highly Regal -3.3 (4) 558-13 Willow Dancer -5.3 (6) 7906-9 Audemar -10.3 (3) -17385 Newmarket results yesterday : R1) 6 3 8 4 R2) 1 8 11 7 R3) 2 6 5 1 R4) 2 6 8 1 R5) 6 1 3 4 R6) 1 4 12 Ilie Nastase and VainGlory are my selections Result into round 3 1st 3 Vainglory 14.13 11 +25% 2nd 4 Audemar 5.54 5 +8% 3rd 2 St Moritz 6.23 6 -1% 7 ran Non-runner: 8 Dajen Jockey: Martin Lane Trainer: D M Simcock |
|
By:
For what its worth with the 1,000 G steinbeck has a nabit of coming back lame from work and races but well regarded regardless.I dont think even if Fit enough his good enough.My personal opinion is that Fencing Master is a nice Ew at 13/2 but overall I think its not a great 1000 G
|
|
By:
Yes Ryan the stats are a guide to what the highest rated horses are but you have to factor in lots of things hence why I would at a push would play Kingsgate Native
and Spin Cycle. but once I have looked into deeper I will see a better picture and change my selections accordingly. |
|
By:
But how has Kingsgate Native come out as such a big positive? Stoute is in poor form? Horse usually needs a run? etc. How many factors go in to working out the ratings?
|
|
By:
Hey BBJ. Murtagh on Steinbeck, would that put you off Fencing Master at all? Can't say I'd back FM to even get placed
. |
|
By:
Ryan, the spreadsheet works out the horses 'OR TS RPR' ratings then you use your own opinion to narrow down the field,
|
|
By:
Not sure how you get Spin Cycle though.. never won a group race of any kind, and rated 11LB lower than Kingsgate Native and Total Gallery. Trainer is in decent form though, but still..
|
|
By:
Haha I don't understand it though, Spin Cycle came out with a negative score and below a lot of the other horses. What makes you want to back him?
|
|
By:
Ryan, pick a race tomorrow other than a maiden and see if the spread sheet I use can help us find a winner, any race with some data as per previous post.. we all need to work together to find some winners. :)
|
|
By:
if it is a poor guineas then canford cliffs classic form should make him a cert.
|
|
By:
do the 5 10 chepstow if you dont mind i have a squeek for one it it.
|
|
By:
Kirty.. Catterick 3-50! Work that crazy system of yours!
|
|
By:
Actually yeah just go for mepoor's one, doesn't matter to me.
|
|
By:
Jonny doesn't always get it right.I personally cant back canford cliffs because I dont think he stays.One thing thats noting in the 2000 is that O brien didn't have any pacesetters to make it a fast or true run race.This time around he hasn't made that mistak eand if he does get a true run race fencing master may well be there.I may well have a soft spot for him but you know he was well supported for the 2000
|
|
By:
No worries just give me 5 / 10 missus is moaning its time for bed.. :)
|
|
By:
Just because Canford finished best of these in the 2000 and this is a poorer race doesnt always mean his the obvious winner.It will be a different run race i think with O Brien having pace setters,they will be looking to test the real stamina of all and not make it a sprint merchants dream
|
|
By:
Why do you think CC doesn't stay?
|
|
By:
I just feel that the last day He was praying for the line.Thats just my opinion but I wouldn't be backing at 11/4 or 3/1 an di would think that the bookies will take him on knowing that O Briens Aim is to test the stamina in the race
|
|
By:
Time was very reasonable, only half a second slower than STS last year.. and if you think the race was a speed race, then surely CC who was held up near the back done well to finish so close. The Standard Time to complete the 1mile at the Currage on GF is around a second longer than Newmarket.. so we'll see what happens!
|
|
By:
trust me bilybob the guineas was run at good pace, so he did stay a mile, if it was a slow run race then yes there would be doubt but it wasnt.
|