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epsom derby 2018

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By:
Sandown
When: 08 Jun 18 14:52
kincem

I've stated my argument as clearly as I could and if that is not good enough for you to accept then I will leave it there.Suffice to say, in essence, imo the whole weight of your posts was aimed at questioning whether DI ever truly demonstrated stamina in his races, as well as that of his progeny. That would include SW. If I have misinterpreted anything, then that is my fault but I believe not. As for pre-event statements, I did post that I considered that SW would not only stay 12f but improve for the trip. I believe that the evidence shows the first part of that to be true but not apparently the second half. Time will tell whether that is indeed the case.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Jun 18 16:04
'kinscem', may I ask where you'd seen or heard Godolphin said Masar would go for the Irish Derby (after all)? I understood Godolphin (Appleby) mentioned the Irish Derby soon after winning the Derby, later the option of the Eclipse even though he'd need to be supplemented, and now (from your post timed 1:58PM) the Irish Derby - is that the latest from Godolphin or Appleby? If so, the present 4.3 here looks a steal, in my opinion.
By:
A_T
When: 08 Jun 18 18:55
Kincsem regarding Deep Impact's ability to stay 12f - well he won many times over 12f-15f and the one occasion he raced outside Japan was beaten by 3/4 length in the Arc.

Your counter to this evidence is "Japan races aren't proper tests of stamina" and "he lost the Arc because he didn't stay". Once you've taken that position there's nowhere to take the discussion - you've made your mind up to interpret evidence to suit yourself
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 08 Jun 18 20:09
If so, the present 4.3 here looks a steal, in my opinion.

Impossible,

How much do you want on Masar if i lay you 4.5 ?
By:
kincsem
When: 08 Jun 18 20:35
A_T
First of all Deep Impact did not stay in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
In a very small field of 8 runners he was 3rd, passed twice near the finish.
He was later disqualified from the race for a prohibited substance, a substance to aid his breathing.
It seems Japanese pride can not accept this.  Their JBIS website says in capital letters "FAIL TO FINISH"


All of what you mentioned about Deep Impact runs in the Arc and in Japan was mentioned in my early posts on the thread.

I looked at the 10.1 AWD in the Racing Post for Deep Impact, and broke it into the individual wins that made up the 10.1f,.
It was only 8 wins in the 10.1f AWD calculation, 5 of those were in maidens, 2 in low level handicaps, and 1 in a Group 1.
Not happy with the very poor quality of the winners I decided to do something els.

I took hundreds of the best Deep Impact progeny and did an AWD calculation with those.
The result was a 9.39f AWD for Deep Impact progeny.

Yes, in my sample there were 28 wins at 12f by Deep Impact progeny.
One horse had two wins at 15f.
But the other 171 wins were from 6f to 11f.

The evidence I interpreted is a Deep Impact AWD of 9.39 against a Galileo AWD of 11.2f.
And Saxon Warrior had not run beyond 8f before the English Derby.

If you call that "you've made your mind up to interpret evidence to suit yourself" then that is what I did.
I used evidence.
I collected the evidence and generously put it in the thread for others to read.

Japanese 12f races are run about 11 seconds faster than the English Derby.
Look at the track profiles of the top ten Japanese racecourses.
The elevation change averages about 3 metres over the whole track, always with only one "hill"
You can claim Japanese horses have equal or better stamina that European runners but their races are easier.
And how many times have they come 2nd in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, usually outstayed in a duel, or passed near the finish?
Horses that can run 12f (or 2400 m) in 2:24 in Japan don't seem to be able to do the business in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, about the only race they contest at 12f in Europe.

Year…Finish…Horse
2014…6…Harp Star
2014…8…Just A Way
2014…14…Gold Ship
2013…2…Orfevre
2013…4…Kizuna
2012…2…Orfevre
2010…2…Nakayama Festa
2010…7…Victoire Pisa
2008…10…Meisho Samson
2006…3…Deep Impact
2004…17…Tap Dance City
2002…13…Manhattan Cafe
1999…2…El Condor Pasa

I apologise if any of these are not Japanese trained (a quick list).


Saxon Warrior did not win the English Derby, he was 4th.
He failed for a reason.
Was it lack of speed, or a lack of stamina?
By:
kincsem
When: 08 Jun 18 20:38
I have posted enough.
If Deep Impact / Saxon Warrior fans can not accept evidence up to now we can wait to see if the records turned around in future races.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 08 Jun 18 21:05
In an interview on ATR just now, O'Brien said they think Saxon Warrior didn't handle the track and was too babyish and never got into top gear, and that he goes to the Irish Derby where the track is fair for all and tactics don't play a part.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Jun 18 21:17
I think it was fairly clear Saxon Warrior was not totally at ease at Epsom...Moore did not help his course either nevertheless, I'm not convinced he stayed the 12f as well as the front three; he ran past Hazapour (5th) who clearly did not stay the Derby trip.

Let's hope Masar turns up, then we could witness a ding-dong duel; Delano Roosevelt too, I hope.
By:
MrDinos
When: 08 Jun 18 21:18
Deep Impact beat Delta Blues by 14.5 lengths in the Tenno Sho Spring (2m). Delta Blues next race was the Caulfield Cup (1m 4f) and he was 3rd, half length away from winning... he then went on to win the Melbourne Cup (2m) with Pop Rock another Japanese runner in 2nd. The great IRISH stayer **** was 4 lengths behind in 7th.

Conclusion, these Japanese donkeys don't stay 1m 4f. LaughWink
By:
MrDinos
When: 08 Jun 18 21:21
*4 times Ascot Gold Cup winner... you know the one!
By:
MrDinos
When: 08 Jun 18 21:34
I was too kind to the great Ascot Gold Cup winner he was 8 lengths behind. Tongue Out
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 08 Jun 18 22:00
Missed break, soon recovered to race in midfield, steady headway around outside to go 2nd halfway, led over 4f out to over 2f out, one pace

Y E A T S  was passed by six horses inside the final two furlongs. I guess he didn't stay 2 miles either.Crazy
By:
MrDinos
When: 08 Jun 18 22:09
Flemington is so flat and down under it's just a 1m 2f race Jack... Y E A T S couldn't quicken like the others in a sprint finish! Laugh
By:
Madhu
When: 08 Jun 18 22:30
Stop it you two your hurting my stomach.Excited
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 09 Jun 18 06:58
All these excuses for SW, we didn't hear any after 2,000 when Masar and Roaring Lion were left isolated and on slower ground.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 09 Jun 18 09:05
Breeding is not an exact science, although guidance most punters worth their salt would use. Vincent O'Brien is on record stating his biggest concern the night before the Epsom Derby was knowing if Nijinsky would get the 12f trip. If he didn't know for sure, then who did Wink

Take Red Rum as an example, sired by Quorum, half-decent and runner up in the 2000 guineas.
Red Rum won races between 5f and 4.2 miles. Cherry picked perhaps, but only to illustrate my point.

Any heated discussion on here whether Saxon Warrior will stay 12f is simply based on heresay and conjecture, but we will have a good idea on June 30th.

I disagree SW ran badly at Epsom, although concur he may not have been happy on the course. As for comments about RM, absolute nonsense, but it's all about opinions.

Posters that say SW didn't handle the course will probably want to lay him at The Curragh, as there are undulations and 3/4 of the race is on a 'turn'. It also has a lateral camber, though not as severe as Epsom. Having said that, there isn't much of a market up here anyway, surprising considering some think he may not even run there. Good luck.
By:
MrDinos
When: 09 Jun 18 09:11
Breeding is not an exact science, although guidance most punters worth their salt would use. Vincent O'Brien is on record stating his biggest concern the night before the Epsom Derby was knowing if Nijinsky would get the 12f trip. If he didn't know for sure, then who did.

Take Red Rum as an example, sired by Quorum, half-decent and runner up in the 2000 guineas.
Red Rum won races between 5f and 4.2 miles. Cherry picked perhaps, but only to illustrate my point.


Spot on Andrew. Cool
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jun 18 12:12
If SW is beaten (assuming he runs) at the Curragh I still don't see how it will settle the argument between those who think he stays and those who don't. It seems most of us on here believe he was beaten despite him staying. The Coolmore team obviously believe the same. If they thought there was any possibility he failed due to stamina limitations they would've wasted no time in announcing a 10f campaign for him. Fact is they haven't really a clue why he ran below par. The horse lost his form and they're just hoping he'll regain it.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 09 Jun 18 12:25
As for comments about RM, absolute nonsense, but it's all about opinions.

Absolute nonsense is Bungle`s speciality.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 09 Jun 18 12:28
Yep, he stayed but just got beat by better horses over the trip.
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jun 18 12:37
Souldancer, you think he showed his Guineas form at Epsom?
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 09 Jun 18 13:08
I was impressed by the Guineas run and thought he could improve again over 1 mile.

But 4 furlongs more is a lot.

In the Derby he had problems and possibly could have finished closer but all in all ran well.

Since looking at the Guineas run again it all went his way that day so maybe I'm not as impressed as I was.


Still think he'll be better over 1 mile.Think he'll find it hard to reverse form with Masar and Roaring Lion over 12 furlongs.
By:
A_T
When: 09 Jun 18 13:17
looking at the race again SDS (intentional or otherwise) did a bit of a job on SW - the Balldoyle colt checked and lost momentum. It would be interesting to see the sectionals for the the closing 2 furlongs as I suspect SW covered it as quickly as anything. Aidan O'Brien himself said "I don't think you could say he didn't stay at Epsom as he wasn't stopping all the way up the straight" - I'm not going to argue with him.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 09 Jun 18 13:35
I hear John Magnier is saving all his weekend pocket money to back SW with at the Curragh Laugh
By:
Sandown
When: 09 Jun 18 13:52
Andrew

There was only 0.4 sec between the front 4 over the last 2f . They finished in even time which usually means that they stayed. Hazapour clearly didn't get home , 1.2 secs slower over the final 2f.He looked the winner over 2f out.I thought that SW maybe got his tongue over the bit but no-one else has said anything. I thought that he also lost his action suggesting he wasn't at home on the camber. Did he run below his 2000 Gns form? Yes, both on the clock and collaterally.
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jun 18 14:12
I have Masar running to his Guineas form, just 1lb lower, which is negligible. I don't believe he actually improved for the trip. In truth very few horses do on the clock, despite what people say, it's just that 3yos generally aren't as fast over the longer trip, so competition is thinner, which is why 3yos get a bigger allowance against their elders over longer trips.

I have him as about an average winner, no better but no worse. The question is whether he'll go on from this. If he doesn't a lot of people will say it was a crap Derby. I've never really understood this mentality as it doesn't happen with other sports. If a tennis player plays brilliantly to beat, say, an in form Nadal in a slam final but doesn't win another slam, there isn't a need to denegrate the earlier achievement. Back to Masar, he has had a busy time of things and I wouldn't be totally confident of him being able to repeat his Derby win soon but I'd still rather be with him than SW at the prices, however I'd rather lay SW than back Masar.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 09 Jun 18 14:18
Sandown,

Good information, many thanks.

You've probably read my posts here regarding SW ref being hampered et all. I think we will see a different horse in Ireland and fully expect him to win, even with Masar in the field. I feel the latter will go for the Eclipse anyway. Good luck.
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jun 18 14:19
* denigrate
By:
Madhu
When: 09 Jun 18 14:31
Sandown regarding "SW maybe got his tongue over the bit" If you download this picture and enlarge it, it does appear that his ring bit has moved outward.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/irish-derby-could-be-next-as-o-brien-retains-belief-in-saxon-warrior/333802
By:
Sandown
When: 09 Jun 18 14:38
There was a bet reported on SW of £125,000-150,000 so it would suggest that at least one of the "lads" got burned.  My guess is that it was Tabor. I wouldn't get involved with the horse again -not at quoted prices at least - until a better explanation is given.
By:
Sandown
When: 09 Jun 18 14:41
Madhu

If you look closely at the video from around 2f marker you will see what looks  like his tongue getting over the bit. The head-on also shows that it came out both sides.If so, it might have affected his breathing.No comment from Moore however.
By:
Madhu
When: 09 Jun 18 14:54
Sandown

I have looked at this version and I think it is his dislodged bit 2f out but inside the final furlong there is definately something flapping and it could only be his tongue, I concur.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PayT2-o_74
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 09 Jun 18 14:57
Figgis, very few horses improve for the trip.

You didn't mean that did you? You must have meant something else.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Jun 18 15:05
Assuming Masar ducks another encounter against Saxon Warrior in the Irish Derby and heads for the Eclipse which of these will have the best chance eg Roaring Lion, Masar or Hazapour? They were all going swimmingly well. Personally, I'll have Roaring Lion or Hazapour (for value), before Masar.
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Jun 18 15:05
Very few 3yos who can run very competitively in a top mile race, as Masar did in the Guineas, actually run faster (comparatively speaking) over 12f. They get more weight off their elders over 12f than 8f for a reason.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 09 Jun 18 15:21
Figgis,

O.k.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 09 Jun 18 17:43

Jun 8, 2018 -- 3:05PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


In an interview on ATR just now, O'Brien said they think Saxon Warrior didn't handle the track and was too babyish and never got into top gear, and that he goes to the Irish Derby where the track is fair for all and tactics don't play a part.


apart from the 2008 renewal obviously....

Not that I'm still bitter all these years later Wink

By:
dunlaying
When: 11 Jun 18 11:11
It might be worth getting a couple of rags into the Curragh portfolio . Both Knight To Behold and Kew Gardens can do a lot better than they did at Epsom . Should both Masar and Saxon Warrior drop out they would be well fancied . An unlikely scenario but not impossible and Kew Gardens' beating of Dee Ex Bee reads better now than it did .
By:
gpz6316
When: 11 Jun 18 21:23
i think saxon is a miler , he should be going for the st james palace imo . forget breeding just look at the performances . masar to win the irish derby and prolly the king george . then fresh horses kick in
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Jun 18 23:38
I think Saxon Bomber could be champion 3 year old over 8f and 10f, I believe, but 12f is stretching his stamina a touch; he faces little competition in the Irish Derby unless Masar and/or Dee Ex Bee or Delano Roosevelt show up.
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