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epsom derby 2018

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By:
Madhu
When: 04 Jun 18 19:18
Kincsem

I referenced Sandown’s AWD statistics rebuttal (28 May 18 17:15), and agreed with his assertions- I really do not see how you can leave out the record of progeny who raced in Japan merely on the basis that races are run differently in Japan. That is a HUGE assumption which leaves you with little to work with (28 May 18 16:07)- the use of a single horse being rated 25 lbs behind the winner is not one to use if you are building or establishing a case for DI progeny not staying (27 May 18 16:59).

Regarding the running of the Deep Impact colt Conclusion you ask- Was the “saddle slipped” comment added later to the comments in running? – You state- The Irish Field for Saturday, June 2, 2018- The video on Youtube.  The best images are the head-on pictures from 02:40 onwards. The stirrups are level, the jockey is cantering, and to me everything looks ok, except that the fields has gone away. Blah, blah, kin blah, listen, it was in the “complete” RP comments in running I read from the Gallinule Stakes. Do I give a boo locks whether the “Raced in mid-division” was added later to the comment you had supposedly originally seen?

I quoted Japanese races in order to debunk your “fact-based” assessment of Deep Impact’s progeny along with your comment- Deep Impact could produce good 12f horses, but I think to do that he should be matched with quality staying mares.

To my mind any useful pedigree analysis of Deep Impact would acknowledge he has sired alongside juvenile champions, multiple winners of both the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), and a winner of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St.Leger - 3000m); the pedigrees of the dams of some of Deep Impact’s best middle distance offspring in Japan, that of Gentildonna Japan Cup (2012, 2013), Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (2012), Shonan Pandora Japan Cup (2015), Deep Brillante Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (2012), Kizuna Tokyo Yushun (2013), Makahiki Tokyo Yushun (2016), and Satono Diamond  2013 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) are dominated by speed, and his page includes the winners of both the Epsom Derby and Oaks.

I think your interpretation of the performance of Deep Impact in the 2006 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a non-stayer is erroneousness, and your repetitive negative emphasis on him being drug-fuelled completely worthless. I referred to the widespread doping of professional cyclists and cobalt cases and the film Lean on Pete to analogously emphasise the needless exaggeration on your part. Whereas, in contrast I view the Deep Impact doping controversy as grave mistake in what should have been routine equine veterinary support and believe without doubt he was a sick horse during the lead-up, and given his task as a Japanese contestant and subsequent performance, there are good grounds to imagine in different circumstances it might well have been a different story on the day.

Having cited the Japanese St Leger 15f (Kikuka Sho) and Tenno Sho Spring 16f you then inadvertently only listed his times for middle distance races over 12f -12.5f. Following on, you ask- Who cares about a Japanese 3200 metre world record.  How many races are in the world at 3200 metres? I doubt Australia runs a race as long as 3200 metres.

Deep Impact’s world record over 3,200 metres (2.0 miles) is comparable to the Melbourne Cup over the same distance and therefore, categorically a blatant oversight in your analysis.

You ask- Do you think a mare in the 4th generation is more important than the dam, Maybe (a 7f, 8f winner), or the 2nd dam Sumora (a 5f sprinter)?

Obviously you think the race record of his dam and the 2nd dam is more important, however, what I contend is that your overall evaluation is flawed and biased simply because you consistently dismissed the rest of his tail-female line in your pedigree analyses.

I feel that given the mitigating circumstances the performance of Deep Impact in the 2006 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is intangible and your particular interpretation blinkered; your pedigree analysis of Deep Impact lackadaisical; your use of statistics relating to his European progeny from a limited pool wholly inadequate, and I considered your overarching interpretation of Japanese racing as amusing irrelevant nonsense.

When you smugly asked – “If Jack Bauer '24' or anyone else wants to read my posts on the thread on my analysis of Saxon Warrior's pedigree (sire and dam) come back with something more than the word "nonsense", my first thought was how could he be sitting at home like a Cheshire cat with cream on your lips when all four of his picks finished in the last five home and all were beaten by 17l or more. After your somewhat slick defence I still wonder. Unfortunately “you got luck on the day” included a spelling error. It was meant to be “you got lucky on the day”, as in, in this instance.

Explain "sly in your analysis"? Perhaps English is not your native language and you meant astute?

Obviously I have riled you here. With "sly in your analysis" I was thinking in terms of dodgy, incomplete, escape notice.

As for “Perhaps English is not your native language and you meant astute?”  Kincsem you must be a kin ee jit, astute?  Only a complete weigh anchor would respond to critique with bigotry, utterly shameful.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 18 22:13
This will have to be done the hard way.
You came to the thread late, and it is obvious you have not read the thread thoroughly.

Here is your first piece of humble pie, my response to the Sandown post 28 May 2018 17:15

You say
I referenced Sandown’s AWD statistics rebuttal (28 May 18 17:15), and agreed with his assertions-
I really do not see how you can leave out the record of progeny who raced in Japan merely on the basis that races are run differently in Japan.
That is a HUGE assumption which leaves you with little to work with (28 May 18 16:07)- the use of a single horse being rated 25 lbs behind the winner is not one to use if you are building or establishing a case for DI progeny not staying (27 May 18 16:59).

................................................................................................................
Sandown 28 May 18 17:15
kincem
But I'll keep thw AWD to myself.

I may have less in-depth knowledge of breeding than yourself, but I do know a thing or two about stats. And the key variable in the AWD stat is the A. A is for AVERAGE which can be seriously misleading without knowledge of the standard distribution. It's possible that a sire may get winners ranging from 6-14f with an average of 10 if evenly distributed or more likely 8 as more runners included at shorter distances. It's clear from the list that DI has produced some good 10+f (Gentildonna, Harp Star,  Dee Majesty etc) horses and that is all we really need to know to disprove the argument that he CAN'T sire horses with stamina.
................................................................................................................

Here was my response to Sandown
Kincsem  30 May 18 12:03

I did point out that the 10.1f AWD for Deep Impact on the RP website was also from a very small number of low grade winners in GB.

I went further and examined the winning distances of 350 runners sired by Deep Impact.
AWD is wins as a 3yo or older.
Many of the 350 had no wins, a handful only had wins as a 2yo.

201 wins 0,4,14,50,44,46,13,28,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0 (5f to 20f left to right)
Deep Impact progeny AWD 9.39 (my calculation).

Of course my selection may not be representative of his crops.
Gentildonna had 5 of the 28 wins at 12f.
Satano Diamond had the 2 wins at 15f.

226 wins form 1815 runs = 12.45%
241 horses had 0 wins
56 horses had 1 win
22 horses had 2 wins
16 horses had 3 wins
8 horses had 4 wins
3 horses had 5 wins
2 horses had 6 wins
1 horse had 9 wins (Gentildonna)
1 horse had 10 wins (A Shin Hinari)

I find the numbers a little surprising.
241 horses with 0 wins looks wrong.  My guees is most of their racing record is missing.
The Racing Post Deep Impact runners might be those who ran outside Japan, or competed in top Japanese races against Gentildonna, A Shin Hikari, and other top runners.
In the data are 205 runners with RPR 100+


You should read the thread properly
These are the 350 horses used in my Deep Impact AWD calculation.  To save you counting the (JPN) horses in the calculation it is 346 of 350.

Madhu said
I really do not see how you can leave out the record of progeny who raced in Japan merely on the basis that races are run differently in Japan.


These were the horses in my calculation of the Deep Impact average winning distance of his progeny of 9.39f

A Day In The Life (JPN), A Shin Hikari (JPN), Adam's Peak (JPN), Admirable (JPN), Admire Cima (JPN), Admire Colin (JPN), Admire Daio (JPN), Admire Oja (JPN), Admire Robson (JPN), Aim High (JPN), Akihiro (JPN), Al Ain (JPN), Albert Dock (JPN), All For Love (JPN), Altissimus (JPN), Ambitious (JPN), Anchuras (JPN), Ancienne Ville (JPN), Andriette (JPN), Ange Desir (JPN), April Mist (JPN), Aquamarine (JPN), Archive (JPN), Ardent (JPN), Ares Barows (JPN), Argente (JPN), Arusha (JPN), Asakusa Tiara (JPN), Aster Venus (JPN), Atom (JPN), Avenir Marcher (JPN), Ayusan (JPN), Barbara (JPN), Bariolage (JPN), Barocci (JPN), Bartaba (FR), Beatritz (JPN), Beauty Parlour (GB), Best Deal (JPN), Beste Geschenk (JPN), Biche (JPN), Black's Beach (JPN), Blanc Bonheur (JPN), Blason D'Amour (JPN), Boreas (JPN), Brainy Run (JPN), Cadenas (JPN), Candy Barows (JPN), Canoro (JPN), Cantabile (JPN), Cath Palug (JPN), Centelleo (JPN), Centifolia (JPN), Ceu Azul (JPN), Chocolate Vine (JPN), Chouchou Brise (JPN), Clear The Track (JPN), Comet Seeker (JPN), Conclusion (JPN), Contessa Thule (JPN), Cosmo Speed (JPN), Cotillion (JPN), Culminar (JPN), D'Accord (JPN), Danon Apollon (JPN), Danon Ballade (JPN), Danon Diva (JPN), Danon Gelato (JPN), Danon Grace (JPN), Danon Majesty (JPN), Danon Platina (JPN), Danon Premium (JPN), Danon Shark (JPN), Dear My Baby (JPN), Dee Grande (JPN), Dee Majesty (JPN), Deep Brillante (JPN), Deep Exceed (JPN), Deep In Love (JPN), Deep Jewelry (JPN), Deep Sound (JPN), Deep Spirits (JPN), Deep Warrior (JPN), Deep Wave (JPN), Denim And Ruby (JPN), Donau Blue (JPN), Dragon Forte (JPN), Duomo (JPN), El Norte (JPN), Electronica (JPN), Encore Plus (JPN), Ennead (JPN), Entscheiden (JPN), Erbschaft (JPN), Eroica (JPN), Etendard (JPN), Ever Blossom (JPN), Ever Miranda (JPN), Extra End (JPN), Fan Dii Na (JPN), Fata Morgana (JPN), Fermezza (JPN), Fierce Impact (JPN), Fiero (JPN), Final Form (JPN), Flawless Magic (JPN), Floret Alley (JPN), Fragoline (JPN), Franz (JPN), Frere Jacques (JPN), Garibaldi (JPN), General Gozzip (JPN), Gentildonna (JPN), Gibeon (JPN), Girls Band (JPN), Glenmacnass (JPN), Glory Vase (JPN), Grand Prix Blood (JPN), Greater London (JPN), Gruyeres (JPN), Gullveig (JPN), Hanalei Moon (JPN), Happy Glass (JPN), Happy Moment (JPN), Harp Star (JPN), Hartley (JPN), Hela (JPN), Heldentenor (JPN), Hercules (JPN), Hiraboku Deep (JPN), Hiraboku Impact (JPN), Historical (JPN), Hokulani Misa (JPN), Hubble Bubble (JPN), Iberia (JPN), Iguazu (JPN), Imagine That (JPN), Impact Point (JPN), In To The Storm (JPN), Ingrid (JPN), Invisible One (JPN), Isabel (JPN), Joie De Vivre (JPN), Jongleur (JPN), Jour Polaire (JPN), Kanaloa (JPN), Katie Pride (JPN), Katsuji (JPN), Kawakita Enka (JPN), Keiai Nautique (JPN), Killer Contents (JPN), Kilohana (JPN), Kiminonawa Center (JPN), King Of Arms (JPN), Kizuna (JPN), Kukui Nuts Lei (JPN), Kukulcan (JPN), La La Champagne (JPN), Lachesis (JPN), Laevateinn (JPN), Langley (JPN), L'Arc (JPN), Las Venturas (JPN), Laser Impact (JPN), Last Impact (JPN), Lathyros (JPN), Les Planches (JPN), Lethal Impact (JPN), Lethal Weapon (JPN), Libertas (JPN), Lilikoi Pie (JPN), Little Darling (JPN), Loaded (JPN), Logi Princess (JPN), Lord Acclaim (JPN), Love Conquers (JPN), Love Is Enough (JPN), Lyceenne (JPN), Makahiki (JPN), Mallow Blue (JPN), Marcellina (JPN), Marialite (JPN), Martinborough (JPN), Matsurida Umekichi (JPN), Mau Lea (JPN), Medetashi (JPN), Medjerda (JPN), Meiner Strano (JPN), Meisho Meigetsu (JPN), Meisho San Ai (JPN), Meisho Tensha (JPN), Midsummer Common (JPN), Mighty Spirit (JPN), Mikki Data (JPN), Mikki Glory (JPN), Mikki Isle (JPN), Mikki Joy (JPN), Mikki Position (JPN), Mikki Queen (JPN), Mokulele (JPN), Mondo Intero (JPN), Monster Munchie (JPN), Moonlit Lake (JPN), Moscato Rosa (JPN), Mount Robson (JPN), Mount Shasta (JPN), Move The World (JPN), Narita King Road (JPN), New Dynasty (JPN), New World Power (JPN), Night Museum (JPN), Noble Coronet (JPN), Nobori Legend (JPN), Nouvelle Vague (JPN), Obsession (JPN), Ohana (JPN), One To One (JPN), Only The Brave (JPN), Only Tomorrow (JPN), Orchid Lei (JPN), Osumi Mica (JPN), Osumi Nine (JPN), Palio Minoru (JPN), Para La Salud (JPN), Passion Dance (JPN), Pavlenko (JPN), Peace Mind (JPN), Pegasus Boss (JPN), Pivot Point (JPN), Pixie Princess (JPN), Popocatepetl (JPN), Porte D'Auteuil (JPN), Prehistory (JPN), Primo Scene (JPN), Prince D'Etoile (JPN), Prix Mondial (JPN), Prodigal Son (JPN), Pure Soul (JPN), Quatre Feuilles (JPN), Queen Riviera (JPN), Rawhide (JPN), Real Impact (JPN), Real Steel (JPN), Red Arcana (JPN), Red Avancer (JPN), Red Belle Rose (JPN), Red Landini (JPN), Red Leon (JPN), Red Lucifer (JPN), Red Oval (JPN), Red Rafaga (JPN), Red Rigel (JPN), Red Saints (JPN), Red Sakuya (JPN), Red Storia (JPN), Red Teodora (JPN), Regatta (JPN), Reliable Ace (JPN), Retro Rock (JPN), Return L'Arc (JPN), Roosevelt Game (JPN), Round World (JPN), Sakura Ardito (JPN), Salacia (JPN), Salonika (JPN), Satono Aladdin (JPN), Satono Ares (JPN), Satono Arthur (JPN), Satono Da Vinci (JPN), Satono Diamond (JPN), Satono Fairy (JPN), Satono Ferrari (JPN), Satono Lupin (JPN), Satono Max (JPN), Satono Noblesse (JPN), Satono O (JPN), Satono Pegasus (JPN), Satono Rasen (JPN), Satono Ruler (JPN), Satono Saltus (JPN), Satono Walkure (JPN), Saxon Warrior (JPN), Sazanami (JPN), Seewind (JPN), September (IRE), Sergei (JPN), Shining Lei (JPN), Shonan Pandora (JPN), Sieg Kaiser (JPN), Silent Sonic (JPN), Silk Kingly (JPN), Sinhalite (JPN), Sir Rembrandt (JPN), Smart Layer (JPN), Smart Robin (JPN), Smoke Free (JPN), Snatch Mind (JPN), Sole Impact (JPN), Spielberg (JPN), Staphanos (JPN), Starry Stage (JPN), Stella Starlight (JPN), Success Selene (JPN), Sunday Bess (JPN), Sungrazer (JPN), Supple Mind (JPN), Supreme Gift (JPN), Suzuka Teio (JPN), Taisei Dream (JPN), Tale Of Life (JPN), Tamuro Miracle (JPN), Target Machine (JPN), Tempel (FR), Tempel (JPN), Temujin (JPN), Tenderly Voice (JPN), Tosen Amber (JPN), Tosen Bless (JPN), Tosen C'Est La Vie (JPN), Tosen Duke (JPN), Tosen Homareboshi (JPN), Tosen Matakoiya (JPN), Tosen Ra (JPN), Tosen Reve (JPN), Tosen Stardom (JPN), Tosen Warp (JPN), Touching Speech (JPN), Trine (JPN), Uliuli (JPN), Umbruch (JPN), Vanquish Run (JPN), Veneto (JPN), Verxina (JPN), Victory Star (JPN), Vijay (JPN), Vincennes (JPN), Vivlos (JPN), Wagnerian (JPN), Waratchauyone (JPN), Wisconsin (JPN), World Ace (JPN), World For Love (JPN), World Impact (JPN), X Mark (JPN), Yamanin Pedalada (JPN), Yamano Fairy (JPN), Yamano Wizard (JPN), Yell Greets (JPN), Zipper Lane (JPN), Zippor (JPN),

346 of the 350 are Japanese as you can see by the (JPN) after each name.

I think you comment about leaving out japanese horses in my AWD calculation has been comprehensively defeated.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 18 22:17
Madhu
Regarding the running of the Deep Impact colt Conclusion you ask- Was the “saddle slipped” comment added later to the comments in running? – You state- The Irish Field for Saturday, June 2, 2018- The video on Youtube.
The best images are the head-on pictures from 02:40 onwards. The stirrups are level, the jockey is cantering, and to me everything looks ok, except that the fields has gone away.
Blah, blah, kin blah, listen, it was in the “complete” RP comments in running I read from the Gallinule Stakes. Do I give a boo locks whether the “Raced in mid-division” was added later to the comment you had supposedly originally seen?


Again you are getting abusive.

If you read the “comments in running” carefully you will learn that the first horse in the field to e asked a question was Conclusion, 3f from the finish.
If the saddle did actually slip the comment does not say when it slipped.  I doubt the jockey would ask the horse for an effort after the saddle slipped.

Just to update you on Conclusion.  He ran today at Gowran Park in a 9 1/2f maiden race, down in class from the Group 3 Gallinule, and down in distance from 10f to 9 1/2f.
He was 8/11 fav and finished second.  That Deep Impact colt has now run six races with winning a maiden (or any race).
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 18 22:24
Madhu
I think your interpretation of the performance of Deep Impact in the 2006 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a non-stayer is erroneousness, and your repetitive negative emphasis on him being drug-fuelled completely worthless.


I said he did not stay as he was passed by two horses near the finish.
He was disqualified for a prohibited substance.
The words “drug-fuelled” are I think, your own, first seen in your above post.

Madhu
I referred to the widespread doping of professional cyclists and cobalt cases and the film Lean on Pete to analogously emphasise the needless exaggeration on your part.
Whereas, in contrast I view the Deep Impact doping controversy as grave mistake in what should have been routine equine veterinary support and believe without doubt he was a sick horse during the lead-up,
and given his task as a Japanese contestant and subsequent performance, there are good grounds to imagine in different circumstances it might well have been a different story on the day.


Again I have no idea why you refer to drugs in cycling.
What is the needless exaggeration on my part?
The horse was disqualified for a prohibited substance, a substance to aid his breathing.
If you want to imagine Deep Impact winning the Arc on another day go ahead.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 18 22:38
Madhu
Obviously you think the race record of his dam and the 2nd dam is more important, however, what I contend is that your overall evaluation is flawed and biased simply because you consistently dismissed the rest of his tail-female line in your pedigree analyses.


You are not dealing with a pedigree analysis beginner here.
I correctly pointed out that the person who said the Oaks winner, Dancing Rain, and the Derby winner, Dr Devious, were in the pedigree of Saxon Warrior was incorrect.

If I think the 1st dam and the 2nd dam of the horse should be considered that does not mean that I have ignored the rest of the dam line or that my views are “flawed and biased

My data goes back 31 generations on the dam line of Saxon Warrior:
Maybe; Sumora; Rain Flower; Rose Of Jericho; Rose Red; Cambrienne; Torbella; Djebellica; Nica; Canalette; Hallebarde; Membrilla; We Shall Remember; Sonsie Queen; Highland Lassie; Glengowrie; Glencairne; Trampoline; Web; Penelope; Prunella; Promise; Julia; Partner mare; Bonny Lass (1723); and so on

I have a pedigree database of 396,091 horses, all input by me.
I write computer programs to analyse pedigrees, comparing inbreeding to horse ratings, identified significant relationships between the two that I have confirmed by statistical analysis.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 18 22:55
Madhu
I feel that given the mitigating circumstances the performance of Deep Impact in the 2006 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is intangible and your particular interpretation blinkered; your pedigree analysis of Deep Impact lackadaisical;
your use of statistics relating to his European progeny from a limited pool wholly inadequate, and I considered your overarching interpretation of Japanese racing as amusing irrelevant nonsense.

When you smugly asked – “If Jack Bauer '24' or anyone else wants to read my posts on the thread on my analysis of Saxon Warrior's pedigree (sire and dam) come back with something more than the word "nonsense",
my first thought was how could he be sitting at home like a Cheshire cat with cream on your lips when all four of his picks finished in the last five home and all were beaten by 17l or more.
After your somewhat slick defence I still wonder. Unfortunately “you got luck on the day” included a spelling error. It was meant to be “you got lucky on the day”, as in, in this instance.

Explain "sly in your analysis"? (Madhu's comment)
Perhaps English is not your native language and you meant astute?(my comment)
Obviously I have riled you here. With "sly in your analysis" I was thinking in terms of dodgy, incomplete, escape notice.


As for “Perhaps English is not your native language and you meant astute?”
Kincsem you must be a kin ee jit, astute?
Only a complete [b]weigh anchor would respond to critique with bigotry, utterly shameful.[/b]


You are on a right rant.
weigh anchor ..... I think the readers can see that you have nothing to offer except abuse.
Thank you for keeping them amused, and showing that Japanese racing are poor losers (I assume you are a representative, or a fan of Japanese racing).


You quote many Japanese races where Deep Impact sired winners.
But those races are confined to Japanese horses.
When Japanese horse race abroad they meet real competition.

In the Japan Cup foreign trained horses won 14 times in 26 years (54%), but all the last 12 races were trained by Japanese trainers.

You probably know that entry to the Japan Cup for international entries is by invitation (is that correct?).
Just to educate myself I decided to look at the first year of the current run of 12 undefeated years for Japanese trainers.

The foreign invites to the Japan Cup in 2008 were:
Purple Moon:  finished 9th of 17
before the Japan Cup (where he) he had won: a maiden at Newbury; Tom McConnell/Country Refreshments Novices' Hurdle at Musselburgh; a listed race at Goodwood; the Ebor Handicap at York.

Papal Bull: finished 14th of 17
Before the Japan Cup he had won a maiden at Leicester; a handicap at Newmarket; a Group 3 at Chester; finished 10th of 18 to Sir Percy in the English Derby;
won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot; A Gr 3 at Newmarket; a Gr 2 at Newbury; before going to the Japan Cup he was 12th of 16 to Zarkava in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

The foreign invites to the Japan Cup:
2009: Conduit 4th of 18; Just As Well 7th; Scintillo 11th; Interpatation 14th
2010: Cirrus des Aigles 9th of 18; Joshua Tree 10th; Dandino 11th; Mores Wells 13th; Timos 15th; Voila Ici 16th; Marinous 17th; Marinous 18th.
2011: Danedream 6th; Shareta 7th; Sarah Lynx 12th; Mission Approved 14th
I could go on to list those to 2017 but I have other things to do.

I think readers who know European racing can see what is happening here.
Lower quality international horses are invited to compete.
In the case of higher quality horses e.g. Danedream 6th and Shareta 7th, who the previous month had finished 1st and 2nd
in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, both 3yos carried 8-5 in the japan Cup, the winner, the 5yo Buena Vista, carried 8-9.
The previous month the allowance to these two in the Arc was 8 pounds, but in the Japan Cup a month later they got 4 pounds.

Poor quality horses invited, good horses getting minimal allowances.
It looks like Japan does not want the type of competition they had from 1981 to 2005 where international horses won consistently.
Generally their races are not open to international competition, only a small number are.
By:
kincsem
When: 04 Jun 18 22:56
I think I will leave it at that, and do a lap of honour.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Jun 18 22:57
Some of the horse with (JPN) after their name ran in Europe - for instance Aquamarine, Lethal Impact, Love Conquers.
The country in brackets just indicates where it was foaled and what studbook it is registered to.

Pretty basic knowledge for a breeding expert I’d have thought.Wink
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Jun 18 09:46
gpz6316, RL did not win for you but you're right about the stamina doubt of Hazapour - going swimmingly well 2/3f out - and your hope of Saxon Warrior not handling the track could have been proven. Perhaps next year we'll hit the target.
By:
Madhu
When: 05 Jun 18 10:01
Kincsem

Kincsem- I can not find any stats on the AWD of his Japanese progeny, but I think that would be worthless based on the Japanese style of racing, very different to here (28 May 18 14:29).

Sandown- I really do not see how you can leave out the record of progeny who raced in Japan merely on the basis that races are run differently in Japan (28 May 18 16:07).

Worthless, leave out- I understood this in terms of discounting contextualised around “Japanese style of racing”. Furthermore, you failed to address Sandown’s AWD statistics rebuttal (28 May 18 17:15) concerning the average variable in AWD, and standard deviation.

Kincsem- If you read the “comments in running” carefully you will learn that the first horse in the field to e asked a question was Conclusion, 3f from the finish. If the saddle did actually slip the comment does not say when it slipped.  I doubt the jockey would ask the horse for an effort after the saddle slipped.

Perhaps you could after all advise me on whether the “Raced in mid-division” was also added later to the incomplete comment you had supposedly seen and then used in your original fabrication?

Sandown- the use of a single horse being rated 25 lbs behind the winner is not one to use if you are building or establishing a case for DI progeny not staying (27 May 18 16:59).

Here again you have neglected to address this point, only updating with more useless irrelevant “I told you so” information on the horse in question.

Kincsem- What is the needless exaggeration on my part?

I am referencing your repetitive highlighting- “on medication”, “he was on drugs”, “(on drugs)”, “with drug assistance”- that you have used to constantly sully Deep Impact. 

Kincsem- An Oaks winner and a Derby winner were stated to be in the pedigree of Saxon Warrior. They were not. One parent of each of those horses was in the pedigree.

Kincsem- You are not dealing with a pedigree analysis beginner here. I correctly pointed out that the person who said the Oaks winner, Dancing Rain, and the Derby winner, Dr Devious, were in the pedigree of Saxon Warrior was incorrect. My data goes back 31 generations on the dam line. I have a pedigree database of 396,091 horses, all input by me. I write computer programs to analyse pedigrees, comparing inbreeding to horse ratings, identified significant relationships between the two that I have confirmed by statistical analysis.

Blah, blah, kin blah, I was not referencing “in the pedigree” from a simple 5 generation pedigree from say pedigreequery.com, I was reflecting his page and his family has indeed produced winners of both the Epsom Derby and Oaks. Only a novice would write a thesis relating to the breeding of Saxon Warrior without accounting for his page, which can be found here- 

http://www.equineline.com/tdn/pedigree.cfm?tk=DON&cy=ENG&rd=10/28/2017&rn=4&de=D%20%20&ref=9996188

Kincsem- You quote many Japanese races where Deep Impact sired winners.

Yes because as I have already stated, to my mind any useful pedigree analysis of Deep Impact would acknowledge he has sired alongside juvenile champions, multiple winners of both the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), and a winner of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St.Leger - 3000m).

I really do not need this constant anorak spiel which consists almost entirely of gathered information; you should give someone a warning because I have become pretty drowsy browsing your lists these last few days, in particular “the 350 horses used in my Deep Impact AWD calculation” was an eye-sore on my computer screen.

In addition, Kincsem you failed to respond to this part of my critique - Having cited the Japanese St Leger 15f (Kikuka Sho) and Tenno Sho Spring 16f you then inadvertently only listed his times for middle distance races over 12f -12.5f. Following on, you ask- Who cares about a Japanese 3200 metre world record.  How many races are in the world at 3200 metres? I doubt Australia runs a race as long as 3200 metres.

Deep Impact’s world record over 3,200 metres (2.0 miles) is comparable to the Melbourne Cup over the same distance and therefore, categorically a blatant oversight in your analysis.

Explain "sly in your analysis"? Perhaps English is not your native language and you meant astute?

After your critique I could now probably add shoddy and subtle, and bighead.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 05 Jun 18 13:17
I think readers who know European racing can see what is happening here.
Lower quality international horses are invited to compete.
In the case of higher quality horses e.g. Danedream 6th and Shareta 7th, who the previous month had finished 1st and 2nd
in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, both 3yos carried 8-5 in the japan Cup, the winner, the 5yo Buena Vista, carried 8-9.
The previous month the allowance to these two in the Arc was 8 pounds, but in the Japan Cup a month later they got 4 pounds.


Poor quality horses invited, good horses getting minimal allowances.
It looks like Japan does not want the type of competition they had from 1981 to 2005 where international horses won consistently.



A lot of opinions flying around and not much fact, so it's nice to see some facts - although it would be better if they were correct.

In the Arc, Danedream received a 3lb fillies allowance plus wfa of 8lb (11lb total allowance)
In the Japan Cup she received a mixture of fillies allowance and wfa which added up to 9lb. Buena Vista is a Mare you see, Kincsem so not the horse to base your calculations on.

If the Arc had been run on November 27th (Japan Cup day 2011) instead of October 2nd, Danedream would have received her 3lb fillies allowance plus wfa of only 6lb...and that 9lb of total allowances was exactly the same she got in Japan.

Let's see an end to this ****-bashing, eh? It's way off the mark and rather tiresome.
By:
Cool Dawn
When: 05 Jun 18 16:53
I agree Headmaster. What started off as an interesting discussion as to why the odds on Saxon Warrior might have stamina limitations seems to have degenerated into a tedious series of petty exchanges going backwards and forwards.

Personally I think Kincsem's original argument presented a convincing angle to oppose him given his price. But neither would I get carried away assuming that Deep Impact is incapable of siring many European group 1 middle distance winners given the many other variables involved.

Surely it all comes down to price. If SW were 10-1 last Saturday then stamina concerns become less relevant given his proven class. With him at odds on, opposing becomes much more appealing.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Jun 18 17:52
Now that Saxon Warrior (SW) has been confirmed for the Irish Derby let's hope Masar (M) goes there too to re-affirm he's the number 1 3 yr old colt at 12f than SW and others.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 06 Jun 18 17:57
he has got nothing to prove masar, fingers crossed we see him in the eclipse against his elders
By:
Sandown
When: 07 Jun 18 13:04
On the day, Masar was the best horse and with hindsight he was over-priced by the market and by me.

Might that be as good as he can be? Well, on 123 RPR  he rates 2 lb behind the average Derby winner for the past 30 years. He won on his 9th run which makes him just one of three winners in that period to have had that many runs (the others were Erhaab 94 Dr Devious 92). I wouldn't be too confident that he might prove worthy of a higher rating in future but that might not stop him winning another G1 if there isn't anything better around.

Excluding SW for the moment,the result was not unfathomable. No doubt Hazapour will prove to be better over shorter whilst DeeExBee will perhaps improve again over further still.

On the sectional evidence, I would say that although it rates below average on RPR's it was evenly run with the first 4 all indicating that they stayed well enough even though RL might prove better at 10f - although on this evidence he could win a weakish G1 at least over 12f imo.

Clearly SW ran well below expectations for reasons which are still not clear to me.I'm not sure that I buy into the "immature,baby" angle. He was somewhat agitated when being saddled but seemed to be perfectly OK going to post.To my eyes he was well enough positioned throughout being alongside both Masar and RL so I don't see that the draw had much of a part in the explanation. I thought that he looked ill at ease in the straight, rolling around a little and hanging his head both ways. I think that he put his tongue over the bit for a good time , perhaps others may like to comment.If so, that might explain why he couldn't pick up at the end as he had at Newmarket. As I've said, I think that he stayed well enough so I'm not convinced by the lack of stamina argument. Did he regress, as Figgis said he might? Well, yes, he may have done and if so that was a great call by Figgis. However, given the stable vibes, the strength in the market, you have to wonder about that. I've not seen a word in print about the rumours of coughing so I don't know what to believe about that.

I can't see how he should be a shorter price than Masar for the Irish Derby unless someone knows something that we don't and they are not saying. Otherwise, I can't see it. Perhaps he will prefer the more galloping nature of the Curragh, perhaps he just has been over-rated. It wouldn't be the first time. At the prices, he won't be getting my money to reverse the form, anyway, not unless something more tangible emerges.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Jun 18 13:18
impossible123
06 Jun 18 17:52

Now that Saxon Warrior (SW) has been confirmed for the Irish Derby let's hope Masar (M) goes there too so my maximum £5 antepsot bet isn't lost


FTFY
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Jun 18 13:57
SW stumbled as he was leaving the stalls; he did not look comfortable at all times; he even hung when in the clear towards the finish and did not make up ground on Masar.

I do not think he's regressed either; he just did not handle Epsom as well as the others apart from Young Rascal and Delano Roosevelt (DR), and was outstayed by Masar even if he and Masar had contested the last two furlongs together, I believe. So, why is SW shorter than Masar for the Irish Derby?

First and foremost, SW has been confirmed for the race, and Masar has not; 2ndly SW is AOB trained, and general consensus was SW did not act at Epsom, and possibly was not himself either on the day.

Masar's been matched at 5.9 here - bookies no bigger than 7/4 - means he could be an unlikely runner. But I hope not as I've availed myself to some at over 4.2 and more; he'd be a lot shorter if he's confirmed a runner which I hope he'd be soon.

I might even oppose SW with his stablemate DR if Masar does not show because I do not believe SW is a top class 12f horse - to me 10f would be his optimum trip; The Eclipse should SW not make the Irish Derby. If SW is beaten by Masar and/or DR then the Juddmonte and/or Champion Stakes would beckon, I firmly believe.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 07 Jun 18 14:14
I think we can rule coughing out, who in their right mind would have still run the horse.

Masar certainly handled Epsom the best, despite slipping. Saxon Warrior did find trouble in running. I think he sweated up before race too.
  Thought he found the last furlong a bit of a struggle. I'd like to see them do battle again.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jun 18 14:37
However, given the stable vibes, the strength in the market, you have to wonder about that

Sandown, I can't say for absolutely sure if he regressed due to the factors I thought beforehand. Maybe I just got lucky here and there were other issues at work. However, I do know it is possible to get it more right than wrong in the long term when predicting peaks and troughs in certain cases. As for the stable vibes, I'm sure you've fancied one to 'bounce' when connections have been confident and proved their confidence wrong. In SW's case, I doubt he's one that they've ever been massively keen on due to his work at home, so a bit of a decline would probably be less obvious. Regarding points made elsewhere about him not handling Epsom, he didn't handle it purely because he couldn't run fast enough on the day.
By:
Sandown
When: 07 Jun 18 14:52
Figgis

To my chagrin, I believe that on this occasion I gave too much weight to stable opinions about the horse (SW) and too little weight to the figures. As a result I over-rated his potential and ended up taking a price which I wouldn't have normally touched. You are never too old to learn - or relearn - old lessons.Angry
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jun 18 14:57
Sandown, yes possibly, but you shouldn't always blame yourself after one result. Camelot seemed a very short price to me for his Guineas (not his Derby where I thought the price was justified) but still won. All depends on how you fare on such bets/decisions in the long term.
By:
Sandown
When: 07 Jun 18 15:21
No excuses Figgis. In the long-run, I lose backing horses below my estimated price. Didn't stop me doing it this time, though. The big race markets have strong markets and you can get a decent bet on here.The more work you put into a race, the more confident you can become that you have it sussed when in practice that doesn't follow.Over-confidence leads to the temptation to rate the horse shorter.It's possible to play several betting strategies, they all have their place. My single bet, single runner bets have a good record but when analysed, the profit is always made at bigger prices not shorter prices.
By:
kincsem
When: 07 Jun 18 16:52
What I find tiresome about the discussion is I did all the work on Deep Impact and his runners in GB/Ire and elsewhere.

The after the event experts put nothing on the forum before the race.
Even on the Irish forum (where I had been a moderator until I resigned recently) a poster was very upset when I said Saxion Warrior should be around 3/1.

A poster here accused me of basing my Deep Impact AWD work on a few runners in GB/IRE.
The latecomer didn’t bother to read the thread. 
I pointed out that I based the Deep Impact 9.4f AWD on hundreds of his best horses, the great majority with Japanese form.
When I listed the horses, his reaction, instead of apologizing, was to say he did not want his screen clogged with the names.
If anyone wants the spreadsheet send me a PM.

A poster said I do not know Buena Vista!.  Where did I say that?
What I was stressing was that the Japan Cup went from a 54% international win rate to a 0% international win rate.
It would be useful if there was any poster willing to do a bit of work and investigate why.
My guess is Japanese horses did not suddenly improve.
Either the race conditions changed, the race date changed, or the invitation process changed.
This is where you get an edge.  You do a bit of work that others will not do.

A poster said I do not know what the (JPN) suffix means.  Where did I say that?
I have a full set of the GSB, and sets of French, Italian, German, American stud books.
I have a database with 744,712 horses and their country foaling suffixes.  The database is named “country”.

If you look at the profiles of the top ten Japanese racecourses readers will be surprised to learn (because you do no research) that the greatest elevation change on any of those ten oval courses is 5 metres, and invariably there is only one “hill”on those courses.
My guess is the average elevation change is about 3 metres on top Japanese courses
One course has an elevation change of about ½ metre over the entire distance.
These are not conditions to test stamina.

About the only Japanese runner in the Arc that had reasonable stamina imo was El Condor Pasa.
His breeding was almost entirely European.
The pedigree has interesting inbreeding of Nureyev, Sadler’s Wells and Lissadell.
A Japanese breeding expert wanted to buy the dam, Saddlers Gal, but she was withdrawn form auction.
He sent his agent to find locate the farm and bought her.
From memory she was the cheapest Sadler’s Wells yearling in her year at about 20k.
He knew his breeding.
By:
kincsem
When: 07 Jun 18 16:53
*Buena Vista was a mare
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Jun 18 17:20
I like 'El Condor Pasa'. I rather be a sparrow than a snail; I rather prefer my selection runs as fast as a sparrow can fly; I rather prefer a sparrow than a snail...as a delicacy.

I rather Masar do battle with Saxon Warrior in the Irish Derby than not.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 07 Jun 18 17:51
If you knew Buena Vista was a mare, Kincsem, then why on earth are you trying to work out Danedream's allowances using her as your benchmark?  This is folly.  You go to an elder horse, not a mare, to do that.  What I posted about the allowance in the Arc and Japan Cup is very clear and needs no further explanation to anyone with the faintest clue about the wfa scale and how it ebbs away through the year.  It demonstrates your weird theory about the Japan Cup (and the people that stage it) to be nothing more than trash-talk.  Believe you me they want the best horses running in that race and are more than happy to take them on.

As an aside, did you actually watch the Derby?  The very clear non-stayers from the 1st five home are Roaring Lion and Hazapour (which a staying-on Saxon Warrior goes past in the last furlong).
By:
Madhu
When: 07 Jun 18 18:19
Kinscem


•    Discredit related to Deep Impact European progeny concerned the use of a single horse/statistics from a limited pool as wholly inadequate.

•    AWD debunk was referencing your failures to address Sandown’s AWD statistics rebuttal (28 May 18 17:15) concerning the average variable in AWD, and standard deviation.

•    Only a novice would write a thesis relating to the breeding of Saxon Warrior without accounting for his page, which can be found here- http://www.equineline.com/tdn/pedigree.cfm?tk=DON&cy=ENG&rd=10/28/2017&rn=4&de=D%20%20&ref=9996188

•    You blithely discounted Deep Impact’s world record over 3,200 metres and doubted Australia runs a race over that distance, yet obviously Deep Impact’s world record over 3,200 metres (2.0 miles) is comparable to the Melbourne Cup over the same distance and therefore, categorically a blatant oversight in your analysis.

•    kincsem you asked- If Jack Bauer '24' or anyone else wants to read my posts on the thread on my analysis of Saxon Warrior's pedigree (sire and dam) come back with something more than the word "nonsense".  … go through the above one at a time and debunk each of my comments.

Well… go through the above one at a time and debunk each of my comments.
By:
MrDinos
When: 07 Jun 18 19:40
I think readers who know European racing can see what is happening here.
Lower quality international horses are invited to compete.


Japan Cup

Win Prize Money: $2,727,273 (USD) | Bonus 1st $2,000,000 (USD) 2nd $400,000 (USD) 3rd $250,000 4th and below $100,000 if you have won one of the races below.

Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE)
Dubai World Cup (UAE)
The Derby (UK)
Prix du Jockey Club (FR)
Prince of Wales's Stakes (UK)
The lrish Derby (IRE)
Eclipse Stakes (UK)
Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (FR)
Grand Prix de Paris (FR)
King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (UK)
Arlington Million (USA)
International Stakes (UK)
Sword Dancer Stakes (USA)
Irish Champion Stakes (IRE)
Grosser Preis von Baden (GER)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (USA)
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (FR)
Champion Stakes (UK)
Cauleld Cup (AUS)
Canadian lnternational (CAN)
Cox Plate (AUS)
Breeders' Cup Turf (USA)
Breeders' Cup Classic (USA)
Melbourne Cup (AUS)

The winners of the races designated for the aforementioned bonus system which are held after the closing date of the Early Nomination and those horses deemed equivalent may be considered by the JRA Selection Committee as qualified runners for the bonus.

Early Nomination Close: 9th October 2018
Nomination Fee: Free of Charge

For invited overseas horses for the Japan Cup, the JRA will provide the following:
1. Air transportation between Japan and the point of embarkation / disembarkation for the horse and two attendants (economy class).
2. Return business class air tickets for Owner, Trainer, Jockey, and their spouse / partner (Not transferable).
3. Five nights accommodation (one room) for Owner, Trainer, and Jockey at JRA Official Hotel.

Yep, the Japanese really, really DON'T want the best from Europe or the rest of the world to race in the Japan Cup! Laugh

Some huge willy waving statistics... deep and impactful. Wink
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 07 Jun 18 20:52
I think we can rule coughing out, who in their right mind would have still run the horse.

If there was a minor issue during the week that meant SW wasn't quite 100% on the day, but AOB/Coolmore let him run because they thought his class would prevail. Could that be a logical explanation ?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 07 Jun 18 21:12
He doesn't have a clue what he's talking about, Mr Dinos.  It's odd...as up to this year's Derby thread I always thought Kincsem was a good poster who knew his onions.  This database he's compiled has turned him batshit mental.
By:
MrDinos
When: 07 Jun 18 22:09
Laugh

I haven't made any contribution to this thread Headmaster but it has been a fun and interesting read most of the time... especially those Kinscem stats. I'm surprised he hasn't self combusted... heaven help us if Saxon Warrior and Study of Man run in the Arc!!
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 07 Jun 18 22:28
Andrew,

I wouldn't class coughing during week of race as a minor issue. Horses get pulled out of races for a lot less.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 07 Jun 18 22:40
Anyway, if that was true, the connections would have made it public after race to protect Saxon Warrior's reputation and value.
By:
kincsem
When: 08 Jun 18 01:20
Madhu
•    Discredit related to Deep Impact European progeny concerned the use of a single horse/statistics from a limited pool as wholly inadequate.


Sandown 28 May 18 17:15

I may have less in-depth knowledge of breeding than yourself, but I do know a thing or two about stats. And the key variable in the AWD stat is the A. A is for AVERAGE which can be seriously misleading without knowledge of the standard distribution. It's possible that a sire may get winners ranging from 6-14f with an average of 10 if evenly distributed or more likely 8 as more runners included at shorter distances. It's clear from the list that DI has produced some good 10+f (Gentildonna, Harp Star,  Dee Majesty etc) horses and that is all we really need to know to disprove the argument that he CAN'T sire horses with stamina.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

I did not say Deep Impact can not sire horses that can get 12f.
When working out my AWD 9.39f for that sire there were 28 wins at 12f
Although when Gentildonna met St Nicholas Abbey she came second.
I took the trouble to examine the racing record of hundreds of his progeny.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………


Kincsem 25 May 18 09:58

I can't be sure about Saxon Warrior staying or not staying.
But it has to be seen, and in my mind there are doubts.

Deep Impact won at 15f and 16f.
My concern about those races is the Japanese style of long distance racing.
The tracks are very firm, flat, with big sweeping bends.

With Saxon Warrior we have:
A sire that in one attempt at 12f in France was passed by two horses near the finish, and he was on a drug to improve his breathing.
A sire that on the Racing Post website has only 18 runners in GB/IRE and 10 of his 14 progeny wins were at 7f -9f

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………


Kincsem 28 May 18 14:29

The Racing Post shows the AWD (average winning distance of Deep Impact progent as 10.1 furlongs

Is this it?

If you know anything about horse statistics you will know that they are as close to useless as you can get.

The AWD (average winning distance) is, as far as I know, the average for wins as three years old and older.
You and I now know what others do not know i.e. the numbers behind Deep Impact's 10.1f AWD (see my calculation below).

Will this fill you with confidence that Deep Impact's son, Saxon Warrior. will get the Derby 12f distance?
He may get the distance if Deep Impact's Japanese racing form transfers to his progeny racing in Europe.
I can not find any stats on the AWD of his Japanese progeny, but I think that would be worthless based on the Japanese style of racing, very different to here.

Horse ...................All Ages........3yo+ ..........Comment
Saxon Warrior...........8f...............................(2yo win)
Saxon Warrior...........8................................(2yo win)
Saxon Warrior...........8................................(2yo win)
Saxon Warrior...........8...............8................Group 1
September...................7................................(2yo win)
September...................7................................(2yo win)
Pavlenko.....................7...............7...............Maiden (5th attempt)
Fierce Impact.............8................................(2yo win)
Monster Munchie...9.5............9.5..............Maiden AW (3rd attempt)
Monster Munchie....9.5...........9.5..............0-65 AW Handicap
Sunday Bess..............10............10...............0-75 fillies handicap (10th attempt)
New World Power......12...........12...............Maiden AW (10th attempt)
Wisconsin.................12.5........12.5............3yo maiden
Love Conquers..........12.5.........12.5...........Maiden AW class 5 (6th attempt)
Average distance.......9.1..........10.1     


Comments:
Deep Impact's average winning distance calculation of 10.1f is what you see in the above list.
It is based on 8 wins, 7 of those wins in the lowest of grades.
1 win was a Group 1 race, 5 wins were in 3yo maidens, 2 wins were in handicaps.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Sandown 28 May 18 17:15

kincem
But I'll keep thw AWD to myself.

I may have less in-depth knowledge of breeding than yourself, but I do know a thing or two about stats. And the key variable in the AWD stat is the A. A is for AVERAGE which can be seriously misleading without knowledge of the standard distribution. It's possible that a sire may get winners ranging from 6-14f with an average of 10 if evenly distributed or more likely 8 as more runners included at shorter distances. It's clear from the list that DI has produced some good 10+f (Gentildonna, Harp Star,  Dee Majesty etc) horses and that is all we really need to know to disprove the argument that he CAN'T sire horses with stamina.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY COMMENT
I had done an AWD calculation for 350 Deep Impact progeny that I was going to keep for myself, but I decided to post it on the thread.

It appears many of you do not know how the AWD (average winning distance) in the Racing Post is calculated.
They use the same calculation as was used in the Wetherbys publication, the Statistical Record, an annual publication of breeding statistics. 
Unfortunately, in the last few years the have discontinued the annual.

I followed the standard calculation used by the Racing Post and Weatherbys.
If I diverged from the standard calculation I am sure people would complain.


……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………


kincsem 30 May 18 12:03

I did point out that the 10.1f AWD for Deep Impact on the RP website was also from a very small number of low grade winners in GB.
I went further and examined the winning distances of 350 runners sired by Deep Impact.
AWD is wins as a 3yo or older.
Many of the 350 had no wins, a handful only had wins as a 2yo.

201 wins 0,4,14,50,44,46,13,28,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0 (5f to 20f left to right)
Deep Impact progeny AWD 9.39 (my calculation).


Of course my selection may not be representative of his crops.
Gentildonna had 5 of the 28 wins at 12f.
Satano Diamond had the 2 wins at 15f.


226 wins form 1815 runs = 12.45%
241 horses had 0 wins
56 horses had 1 win
22 horses had 2 wins
16 horses had 3 wins
8 horses had 4 wins
3 horses had 5 wins
2 horses had 6 wins
1 horse had 9 wins (Gentildonna)
1 horse had 10 wins (A Shin Hinari)


TODAY COMMENT
I do not have access to Deep Impact statistics of average winning distance from a Japanese website.
But I found after entering the winning distances of about twenty of his runners the AWD settled close to where it finally ended after inputting the wins of his good runners, many among his highest ratings.
The Deep Impact AWD was 9.39f.
This is a lot less than Galileo 11.2f and Montjeu 11.8f, noted sires of English Derby winners.
By:
kincsem
When: 08 Jun 18 01:51
POINT BY POINT for madhu

The first of his points was covered above.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Madhu
•    AWD debunk was referencing your failures to address Sandown’s AWD statistics rebuttal (28 May 18 17:15) concerning the average variable in AWD, and standard deviation.


Sandown did not debunk anything.
I gave the numbers of wins for each distance.
If he wants to work out the median, the standard deviation, or any other statistic he has the data.
He didn’t do anything.
You won't get anything like the AWD numbers of Galileo and Montjeu with Deep Impact runners.


Already posted on the thread. 
201 wins 0,4,14,50,44,46,13,28,0,0,2,0,0,0,0,0 (5f to 20f left to right)
The 50 wins are at 8f, 44 at 9f, 46 at 10f, 13 at 11f, 28 at 12f.
Only two wins at greater than 12f.

…………………………………………………………………………………………..
Madhu
•    Only a novice would write a thesis relating to the breeding of Saxon Warrior without accounting for his page, which can be found here- http://www.equineline.com/tdn/pedigree.cfm?tk=DON&cy=ENG&rd=10/28/2017&rn=4&de=D%20%20&ref=9996188


Again you use disparaging comments.
I pointed out that I have prepared a database of all winners of IRE/GB/FR/GER/ITY/USA Group1, Group 2, Group 3 races from 1900 to the present (USA is Grade 1 only).
I am very familiar with sales catalogues.
When I bought my mare last December I downloaded the sales lots from Goffs, Tattersalls, Arqana, Just the names, sires, dams.

The catalogue is imo useless as are most of the buyers.

I downloaded all the unnamed yearlings from a 2014 yearling sale, looked up their names, racing wins, earnings.  This took a long time.
Result: 18 yearlings out of 462 sold made a racing profit (racing earnings minus auction price minus training fees of 40k (two years).
In other words, the buyers of 444 out of 462 yearlings bought at the auction bought horses that lost money.

Looking up “black type” in the sales catalogue, or getting the horses to walk up and down to examin the conformation, was a monumental waste of time.
“Black type” sounds good. 
He has a “lovely page” sounds good.
They are guessers, and poor guessers.
"Black type" in a catalogue is largely padding. 
The only "black type" that is relevant is the dams on the dam line, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th dam.
If you consider any other horses (i.e. horses not in the pedigree of the sales lot) you should only consider full-siblings of horses in the pedigree.

But if they are buying for a client, and getting commission they don’t have to know anything.



Have a good read of this information I prepared by following yearling lots in their subsequent racing career

A Yearling Sale…………...…..……….……..Lots……….Earnings €……….Price €………..Profit/Loss €……….P/L each €
                           
Profit before training (top 10)…………10……….3,018,866……..….408,500…….…..2,610,366……....….261,037
Profit before training…………………….…52……….1,585,503……..….649,700…....……..935,803……......….17,996.......... deduct 40,0000 from the 18k profit, and you get an average loss of 22k
Loss before training………….....….…….242……….1,196,896……….5,195,000………..-3,998,104…...…….-16,521 ........ deduct 40,000 training (two years) from this to give a 56k average loss
Unraced / Untraced……………..………..130……....…….0,000…..…….1,624,300………..-1,624,300……..….-12,495 ........ probably never raced as they were useless
Withdrawn from sale………….….……..28……...…...….0,000………...….….0,000………….……..0,000……...…….0,000
                           
All lots at sale…………...………….……..462……..….5,801,265…..…….7,877,500………..-2,076,235……...….-4,494
average for yearlings…………….....……1……………..….12,557……...…….17,051…….……………………….……….-4,494
                           
Deduct about 40,000 from the P/L each number to find the real profit.       


Black type on the catalogue page
I have examined the dams of Group races winners for all those years (36,000+ Group winners) and found that only 11% of dams of group winners were themselves group winners.
This shows that black type, so beloved by people who do no research, is a poor indicator of quality in the sales lot on offer.


And if you add in Listed race winners, who are about equal in number to Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 winners combined you double the black type winner numbers.
Then add in the horses placed second and third, and you again treble the horses who get black type.
If (Grp 1 +Grp 2+ Grp 3) = 100 then add Listed = 200 and placed (x3) = 600
The page of a horse in a catalogue is next to useless.

Don't  forget to add in all the half-siblings (as Madhu insists) and you have a massive number of horses who are vaguely related to the auction lot
e.g. a five generation pedigree has 2+4+8+16+32 = 62 ancestors, or 31 on the dam side.
And average mare produces 10 foals.
You have over 300 slightly related horses that can be added to the "page" of the sales lot to pretty it up.


The Australian trainer Bart Cummings, who trained 12 Melbourne Cup winners, ignored what was on the page of each lot.
Instead he listed the racing record of the runners of the dam that were not on the pedigree page.
In other words, he was not swayed by all the black type shown.
He looked for the information that the auction house do not put on the page – the bad runners by the dam.

The page of a horse is misleading, and I pointed out a number of times that the Oaks winner Dancing Rain and the Derby winner Dr Devious are not in the pedigree of Saxon Warrior.
If they are on his “page” they are there as filler to make his pedigree appear more attractive than it is.
Black type is an advertising item beloved by auction houses.

Rose of Jericho, 4th dam of Saxon Warrior – in my data she is the producer of 10 horses in the 1st generation; 310 in the 2nd generation; 208 in the 3rd generation; 17 in the 4th generation.
Rain Flower, 3rd dam of Saxon Warrior – in my data she is the producer of the numbers are: 1st generation 6; 2nd generation 6; 3rd generation 3.

The approx 600 horses from Rose Of Jericho have nothing to do with Saxon Warrior, except the one mare, Rain Flower.

If you can understand this you will see that the many offspring of Rose Of Jericho are through her son Dr Devious (178 offspring); Archway (90 ofspring); Shinko King (28 offspring) and nothing to do with the Derby 4th.
The line from Rose Of Jericho through Rain Flower has produced fewer.
Claiming that Dr Devious is part of the pedigree, or is an influence, is wrong.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Madhu
•    You blithely discounted Deep Impact’s world record over 3,200 metres and doubted Australia runs a race over that distance, yet obviously Deep Impact’s world record over 3,200 metres (2.0 miles) is comparable to the Melbourne Cup over the same distance and therefore, categorically a blatant oversight in your analysis.


I think you need to realise that Deep Impact does not hold that world record with 3:13.40.
The record is 3:12.50, which is 0.90 seconds faster than his time.  Please come back to me on that.
And what use is a “world record” set in a race where only Japanese horses can compete?
The very flat, firm,  oval track with sweeping bends must be the reason for the “world records” not the horses.

Why would a fast time in extremely form conditions have anything to do with the English Derby on good ground with a 134 foot hill (Kyoto 16 foot)?


………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Madhu
•    kincsem you asked- If Jack Bauer '24' or anyone else wants to read my posts on the thread on my analysis of Saxon Warrior's pedigree (sire and dam) come back with something more than the word "nonsense".  … go through the above one at a time and debunk each of my comments.

Well… go through the above one at a time and debunk each of my comments.



Done
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 08 Jun 18 04:15
I wouldn't class coughing during week of race as a minor issue. Horses get pulled out of races for a lot less.

Souldancer,

I didn't mention coughing, you did, i simply stated a 'minor issue' Grin
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 08 Jun 18 08:36
Sorry, when you reposted my post about coughing, thought that was what you were on about.

Anyway, poor Masar wins the Derby and all we can talk about is that other horse.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Jun 18 09:49
If Masar runs in the Irish Derby my money will be on Masar, and likely too on Delano Roosevelt who I know will stay the 12f better than Saxon Warrior; I hope Godolphin fields a pacesetter to ensure the furious is furious and not sedate to accommodate Saxon Warrior.

This year's Epsom Derby might not turn out to be a classic renewal nevertheless, it was unquestionable Masar won on merit, and was a well-deserved winner. If Wild Illusion had won the female equivalent a day earlier I'd have joined the band wagon of astute backers of Masar for sure; he was over=looked by most especially the professional pundits and tipsters.

Sheikh Mohammed, please give us the pleasure of witnessing Masar cementing his Epsom Derby triumph at the Curragh on 30th June at the Curragh.
By:
Sandown
When: 08 Jun 18 12:14
Kincem

When I questioned your conclusions about the likelihood or not of SW being able to win a G1 at 12f, I was in no way questioning the breadth and depth of data which you provided about DI nor the possibility that SW might have stamina limitations. I do disagree however with the degree of certainty which you  attached to your conclusion that he wouldn't have the requisite stamina based on his breeding which to my eye did not pass the test of "on the balance of probabilities" let alone the much harder test of "beyond reasonable doubt". Let me explain why.

1. Because there is so much data derived from the sire and so little derived from the dam, due to the obvious fact that the dam is limited to one foal p.a. whereas the sire is not, pedigree analysis is focused on the sire line  almost to the exclusion of the dam side. That is to ignore 50% of the genetics which is the first red flag as far as certainty or probability of predictions is concerned.

2.Statistical analysis using average distance of winners of progeny is fraught with the possibility of error ranging from sample being too small for statistical significance, to sample bias which with distance analysis is always prevalent given that top class horses have been racing over shorter distances for years now as 8f and 10f is where breeders prefer to race so as to prove speed and class. Stamina is a much lesser requirement now so fewer attempts are made at longer trips.The result is that distribution of wins is almost always heavily biased towards shorter distances.This is the reason why I brought up the issue  of standard deviation. It really isn't necessary to go through the stats on this - the pattern would follow the Poisson rather than the Normal curve as distribution is biased towards one end- but I'm pretty certain that (if I remember my stats training from many decades ago,) you could expect a large standard deviation.

3. From a logical standpoint, it is hard to prove a positive and much easier to disprove a negative. You can count all the white swans in the world but it won't help to prove that all swans are white whilst one black swan disproves that all swans are white and disproves the argument that there are no black swans. DI has sired 28 black swans which have won over 12f. And, importantly, there are some who have won quality races. Therefore, logically you cannot conclude that DI can't get 12f winners.Full stop.

4. Using your own excellent analysis of sires based on the Equinome theory of CC,CT,TT genes you yourself posted on here that SW is most likely either a CT or TT horse which means  that there is a 75% chance that he will stay middle or longer distances and only a 25% chance that he would be a miler or sprinter.Personally, I think that this approach to likely stamina aptitude is sensational and will change how we will discuss this factor in pedigree research in future and your work on this is very helpful. I have run off your data that you posted on an earlier thread.

5. I posted on this thread my conclusion that based on sectional time analysis, which I have studied now for many years  like you with pedigrees, I concluded that using his RP and 2000 Gns runs I had few doubts that the horse runs like a stayer and would comfortably get 10f and probably 12f. You did not respond to this statement either because you are too wrapped up in your pedigree data or because you didn't think it important, something which ,if I wished to, could take offence at.

6. Anyway, and finally, SW did NOT get outstayed in the Derby, based on sectionals, which is the final  disproof of your claim that SW would not stay 12f. I hope that you do not take this as a criticism but rather as Keynes said, "when the facts change, I change my mind."

Please keep up your posts as they add to the pleasure that we all derive from following this great sport.
By:
kincsem
When: 08 Jun 18 13:58
And again

My comment was
I can't be sure about Saxon Warrior staying or not staying.
But it has to be seen, and in my mind there are doubts.


The 28 Deep Impact progeny who won at 12f are not all his 12f winners, only the winners in my large sample of his best runners.
Ever horse stays.  Some just stay too long on the course doing it.
Federico Tesio pointed out (he was fond of paradoxical examples) that if you have a long distance race and the runners are all sprinters one of them would win.  The same for a sprint distance race between stayers.

You say "Therefore, logically you cannot conclude that DI can't get 12f winners.Full stop"
This comment after I pointed out his 28 winners at 12f in my large sample is very strange.
Read that again.  I pointed out he had 28 winners at 12f.
You are saying I concluded something that I did not say, and then calling me to task for your comment.

All the post race analysis is of questionable value..
Why not pick a race, do some analysis before the race, and educate us..
Few had the courage to ignore the Saxon Warrior groupthink, do analysis, and come on the thread with an opinion pre-race.

You finish with "which is the final disproof of your claim that SW would not stay 12f"
Again, I can't be sure about Saxon Warrior staying or not staying.
But it has to be seen, and in my mind there are doubts.


What I liked in the last week was Godolphin said Masar would go for the Eclipse.
Then Ballydoyle said Saxon Warrior would go for the Irish Derby.
Then Godolphin said Masar would go for the Irish Derby.
I think Ballydoyle were outmaneuvered.
Their horse could win, but it looks like a race to enjoy.
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