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epsom derby 2018

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Replies: 766
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 20:18
Jack, it remains to be seen how he's going to be priced nearer his next race but don't you think it's more likely he'll be priced to already forgive this run? So if that's the case I'll definitely be against.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jun 18 20:20
I firmly believe Saxon Warrior did not run his true race - he'd not have won at 8f let alone 12f today. But I'm hoping he's ok, and runs in the St James's Palace and later the Eclipse now that The Triple Crown bubble is busted. 

I hope some righteous well meaning posters here would refrain from stifling discussions here but allow others with private info or otherwise the opportunities to share them. I can assure these Samaritans there are some well informed, experienced and savvy individuals/posters who could easily separate genuine meaningful posters from charlatans.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 02 Jun 18 20:24
Masar didn't have to improve from the 2OOO, he's just better over 1m 4f and that's why he won. He wouldn't beat Saxon Warrior over a mile if they raced again but SW would have to improve to beat Masar over 1m 4f.

Wouldn't be surprised if SW doesn't race 1m 4f again, he looked formidable in 2000 so why not a drop back down in trip?
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 02 Jun 18 20:25
Spot on souldancer, it was the perfect trip for Masar. It was well mooted that Masar and Roaring Lion might enjoy the stamina trip more than Saxon Warrior, and that showed today.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 20:28
You're probably right, he won't be as big a price next time as I would hope, we'll have to wait and see.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 20:29
If SW's best trip is 8f (I don't agree at all but just for argument's sake) then his future at the top of the tree is still doubtful as that Guineas was nothing special as far as Gp1 mile form goes.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 20:34
It wasn't the trip that beat him. I'm sure he's a middle distance horse.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 02 Jun 18 20:38
Can't understand why you think the Guineas form was nothing special, bit early to be saying that especially since those from it all ran well today.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 20:56
I'm sure the trip beat him.  He might win on a flat 12f course, but he didn't do it when it mattered, where it mattered.
By:
Sandown
When: 02 Jun 18 20:57
Masar given a rating of 122 RPR,(it was a genuine pace for the rating) SW 115 down 8lb on his Gns win. AOB not ruling out Irish Derby. So, Figgis you were correct, the horse did regress. Or perhaps he didn't stay as Kincem maintains? Or maybe he was ailing - as has been suggested on this thread? No doubt the reason will emerge, but as has been stated already the Gns form was the key to the race. AOB retains the faith.RL looks like he will go to Sandown for the Eclipse.

All in all,it was one of those races where the unknowns played a large part and I for one didn't play this race right at all.No matter how much one knows its humbling to be reminded that you can never know enough.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 21:00
I hope you'll be laying him then next time over 12 furlongs when I'll be looking to back him. We might get a decent price after all if there are plenty who share your opinion.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 02 Jun 18 21:00
So Masar proved he has stamina.Really !!!,in a 3 furlong sprint !!!.I can't believe the stuff written here.
You knew after 3 furlongs that the fav was beat.
It's simple Ballydoyle didn't make it a test of Stamina,never used their pacemakers [for some bizarre reason],and it ended up being a sprint finish.Which of course doesn't allow ANYBODY to put forward a case of evidence of Stamina.
The Fav got caught flat footed when the pace suddenly quickened,totally different to the pace in the 2000 guineas.
That is the reason for the reversal in the form,i.e. PACE !!!!!!!,or as in today lack of it.
I'd dearly like to hear O'Briens explanation for his race tactics.It will remain a mystery to all that know a bit about racing as to why he chose these tactics.
By:
dunlaying
When: 02 Jun 18 21:08
After 3f? Christ you must be rich tonight.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 02 Jun 18 21:13
Spot on souldancer, it was the perfect trip for Masar. It was well mooted that Masar and Roaring Lion might enjoy the stamina trip ground and track more than Saxon Warrior, and that showed today (and of course the stall draw). Saxon Warrior may well still be the pick of the lot on a different track.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 21:16
I won't be laying any horse next time based on today's race.
Each race is assessed on its merits, on the merits of the runners in the race.

I though Saxon Warrior might not stay in the Derby and he was 4th of 12.
I was not definite, but at the price it was not a good pick.
Too much groupthink, no dissenting voices.
About 70% of the money on Betfair was for one horse.

I detest excuses.
It has become a regular feature.
Please, please, say the horse was beaten by a better horse, or the horse was not good enough.

It was a frustrating day for me .
In the Dash just before the Derby I had €10 on the 2nd at 55s.
I place laid Saxon Warrior to be in the first 4 (€ 600 win missed).
And I lost about €380 Kew Gardens and Knight To Behold.

I am looking forward to the World Cup, and visiting my mare and foal on Tuesday for only the second time.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 21:25
You'll never be a long term winner if you believe the best horse always wins and don't believe in excuses. The ability to spot genuine reasons for a horse not showing its true form is where finding value lies.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 21:49
Still trying to put people down, Jack?
I am a long term winner.
I got downloads from Paddy Power and Betfair and I am in profit on both since I started.
Thanks for your advice.
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 02 Jun 18 21:54
Ryan Moore blameless gents, with a clearer run Saxon Warrior would have won and the authorities should take a good long look at some of the tactics employed by other stables out there today.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 21:59
I noticed a strange filling of the stalls in the Derby, a first.

From 1967 to 2010 they filled the stalls starting from the inner rail, stall 1 against the inner rail.

2011 they went machine 1 (inner rail) 6, machine 2 (outer), 7
2012 machine 1,  9 horses (under 10 runners. stalls machines hold 10)
2013 inner 6, outer 6
2014 inner 10, outer 2 (traditional style filling)
2015 inner 7, outer 5
2016 inner 8, outer 8
2017 inner 9, outer 8
2018 inner 2, outer 10

The BHA designated Epsom as a left turning course (all courses are designated left or right turning)
But the Epsom 12f start is right turning.
Previously they put stall machine 1 tight against the inner rail.
Now they put the two stalls machines in the centre (breaking their own rules?)
And in 2018 they filled the stalls incorrectly according to the BHA rules.

If any horses were disadvantaged more than usual it was was Knight To Behold and Saxon Warrior in 2 and 1.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 22:01
I never put anyone down. I respect the opinions of all informed posters and I don't take offence if someone disagrees with me in the way you seem to. Most on here don't seem to agree with your analysis that Deep Impact is a negative over middle distances and as I have already said I am pretty certain you will be proven wrong by Coolmore over the next few years when they start sending their Galileo mares to him. I'll leave it there as I don't want to upset you any further.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 22:02
I differentiate between excuses and reasons.
By:
Howellsy
When: 02 Jun 18 22:06
Yes Kinscem, it did seem a bit off that stall 1 of 12 became stall 1 of 14 effectively. I wonder if that information could be published in advance for big races.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 22:06
Jack,
I am not upset.
You came on the thread on the day of the race (is that correct?) and since then you have talked condescendingly to me as if you are and expert and I am an idiot.
You have posted nothing on here except excuses why the favourite lost, but am I right in saying you posted no analysis before the race?

Just give us all the dates and times of your pre-race analysis.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 02 Jun 18 22:29
impossible123    02 Jun 18 17:05 
Saxon Warrior's been backed off the board for the St James's Palace


Really ?

£363 matched, so actually bet £181.50. Currently trading @ 6.4

What price do you want for the race ?

I would even give you odds he doesn't even run in the SJP Wink
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 22:36
I made a single post this afternoon describing your Deep Impact analysis as nonsense. This has clearly upset you. Maybe my words were too harsh but I have strong views and sometimes I may come over that way. After the race you quote me saying that the horse didn't handle the track and say I am making excuses, and state that the horse didn't stay, clearly thinking your view had been vindicated.

I have no interest in arguing with you or anyone else for that matter but I believe your analysis of Deep Impact is nonsense. I'm sorry if that sounds condescending but that is my honest view. Go and read both 2000 Guineas threads if you want my pre-race analysis of Saxon Warrior and the Derby.
By:
Madhu
When: 02 Jun 18 22:50
As we know after Thursday’s draw there was a massive red flag simply because SW got stall one. It was easy to find out, without doing any work that over a hundred horses since 2000 in double-figure fields over 1m4f at Epsom from stall 1 (including stall 2 when stall 1 was a NR) have failed to win.  This included six previous Derby fields with 12 runners this century and/or nine that had fields of between 12 and 14. Another stat was that no grey horse has won the Derby since 1946.

Some argued what was their SP’s, how many were odds on shots or had won a 2000gns and RPT, and there’s only 12 runners and of his 11 rivals four are stablemates; and that being grey will not stop RL from winning, while others thought simply that probabilistically both are in-your-face obvious negatives.

Incidentally, since starting stalls were introduced in 1967, nine Derby winners have come from stall 10, including coincidently Galileo (2001): the most successful gate was this year occupied by the winner Masar, a chestnut son of a chestnut Derby winning son of Galileo who has only ever produced Epsom Derby winners who were chestnuts. I think you could argue tongue in cheek that probabilism won the day overall.

As for Deep Impact, fair play kincsem for taking such so strong a position in doubting SW had the stamina specifically for 12f at Epsom because of his sire DI and simultaneously having concerns over SW’s dam Maybe  and second dam Sumora. I looked at his page and saw what I believed were good grounds to think he would have no problem staying the trip today but we’ll see future-wise more substantial data on Deep Impact like we have on Scat Daddy, who some thought was a speed sire whose offspring would fail to train-on and had no chance of staying intermediate distances.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jun 18 23:06
At 17:05 Saxon Warrior was backed off the board. Yes, I did help myself to some between 5/1 and 7/1 ('billies' only 7/4) for the SJP, and 8/1 for The Eclipse. I understand AOB has not lost faith in him however, I cannot see him running in the Irish equivalent. The Eclipse would be ideal for him, in my opinion; the SJP might come too soon, but it is an easy race to win this year, I believe.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 03 Jun 18 06:21
Impossible123,

At 17:05 Saxon Warrior was backed off the board. Yes, I did help myself to some between 5/1 and 7/1 ('billies' only 7/4) for the SJP, and 8/1 for The Eclipse

We obviously have different opinions of 'backed off the boards' Wink

Only small sums have been traded on SW/SJP, as for the Eclipse only 'buttons' and nothing under 9s' on here. Hardly earth shattering.

In my opinion, anyone trying to second guess AOB plans for SW and backing him with hard cash is going to lose in the long run. I very much doubt SW even runs in the SJP, and i think John Gosden might have a comment to make with your thoughts it's an easy race to win. The fact that WH have SW at 7/4 (others much higher) means zilch, they're simply attracting mug punters at those odds. 

I layed SW yesterday (not for form reasons) but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he won a major race(s) over 12f this season, including the Irish Derby.

Good luck with your SJP bets, but you may need it.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 03 Jun 18 08:07
this was a massive blunder by anyone who reads form and looks for value, no escaping that fact, with the
unknown extra 4f and only 1 3/4 lengths to make up on the winner that day SW, and 16 x the price.
plus looking closely at masar's form , beaten an irish guineas winner, beaten a group class winning
sprinter on debut, placed in a guineas, placed in a group 1 in france. had already shown he was a decent
enough group 1 performer. by a stallion who had won the derby himself. mistake i made was losing interest
in the race with such a short priced fav, should of increased my interest to find the value bet against it.
happens all to often, when you are not very keen on the price of a horse in a race, only to findout later
it was well beat and their was another horse lurking in the race with good form at a value price.

WD to masar backers
By:
twonky
When: 03 Jun 18 09:05
Well done to the winners in a race that I got totally wrong betting wise but was more or less right about my thoughts, except on the winner obviously.

I would maintain that Roaring Lion was beaten due to fatigue...4th run in 6 weeks. A nice 5/6 week break to the eclipse is enough recovery time and back over a trip which saw him produce the best performance of any of the trials.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jun 18 09:25
The most relevant and solid form was the 2000G, and Masar (M) was discounted by most except the astute few (for value perhaps) because of Saxon Warrior (SW) and Roaring Lion (RL); against SW it was generally accepted he'd most likely stay the 12f, and a turnaround in form was very unlikely; against RL, because of his scintillating triumph in the Dante. It could also be trainers' induced eg AOB and Gosden against Appleby.

The Epsom track might not have suited; the stall was an inconvenience too. But to me I was never happy with the way SW was going at any time; he did not pick up even when he was alongside (M) - M was going the better. And when SW was pulled out (eventually) there was about two lengths between himself and M, but M finished further than that at the finish. From that I'd deduce SW was more inconvenienced by something more telling eg his well-being or the Derby trip.

As such, I believe SW next race will be another unknown and could be exhaustive 12f hence, a possibility the SJP and/or The Eclipse; the former is an easier race to win, why? SW has beaten Tip Top Win the 2nd fav, and Without Parole (WP) is 'fav' because of his trainer given limited form; Gustav Klimt, to me does not stay and would probably be dropped in distance. The only notable danger is his own stablemate ie US Navy Flag, but I believe he'd be prepared for America.

At prices of between 5/1 and 7/1 (I tried to get 8/1 but was long gone) in the SJP SW is worth the risk of (not showing up) - 7/4 is not; if he does run, he'd probably be just odds against. I do not think SW has regressed either; possibly a bounce given the 2000G was his 1st of the season or well-being as he was little on his toes prior to the race yesterday.

As always horse racing is mainly about opinions, certainly the markets.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jun 18 09:32
I meant "as such, I believe SW next race will not be another unknown and could be exhaustive 12f."
By:
unclepuncle
When: 03 Jun 18 09:49
Maybe Coolmore will suggest running him in the July Cup as he has 'so much pace'.Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 03 Jun 18 10:57
I think after a race result the tendency is to look back on it like it was a puzzle to be solved. If anyone took a position against the fav who uses a method of spreading their stakes to back a few 'value' runners then you can say they should've had Masar covered. As for the fav, I was against him but does the fact that he was beaten make him a poor bet at 4/5? After all 4/5 shots are supposed to be beaten 4 times out of every 9 so hardly a certainty. If he'd won people would be saying why did anyone look beyond the obvious. The only issue I'd have is people comparing his Guineas win to such as Dancing Brave and calling him a 'freak', absurd.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 03 Jun 18 11:15
All about opinions (and I layed SW) but i feel his next run is at the Curragh on June 30th giving him 4 weeks to 'recover' Wink

He will hose up.

I will eat one of my shoes if he runs in the SJP, and JG will win it, but good luck to anyone that thinks differently.
By:
kincsem
When: 03 Jun 18 11:20
If Jack Bauer '24' or anyone else wants to read my posts on the thread on my analysis of Saxon Warrior's pedigree (sire and dam) come back with something more than the word "nonsense".

My posts are all fact based, the racing record of Deep Impact and Maybe, their progeny in Europe, how the AWD (average winning distance) shown on the Racinp Post of 10.1f for Deep Impact is based on less that ten 3yo maiden winners in class 4,5,6 races in GB/IRE and should never be used.
My post also stated that I listed all the wins from the best 350 Deep Impact progeny that I could find (they had 201 wins) and calculated Deep Impact's AWD as 9.4f.
Deep Impact was 3rd in the 12f Prix de l"Arc de Triomphe, passed twice in the last furlong, and even then he was on a prohibited substance to aid his breathing. 
That Arcrun was imo an indication that he did not stay 12f, although every man and his dog knows about his Japanese wins in races longer than that.
I can not find a Japanese runner by Deep Impact that has won a 12f European Group 1 race (has one won a 12f Group 2 or Group 3?).
And I posted that Deep Impact has led the Jananese 2yo sire lists every year, indicating precocity/early maturity for his runners, possibly not ideal for a 12f Derby runner.
Deep Impact could produce good 12f horses, but I think to do that he should be matched with quality staying mares.

Use your "nonsense" comment and go through the above one at a time and debunk each of my comments.

The beest way to prove Saxon Warrior stays the Epsom 12f course is for him to run in the Coronation Cup in 2019.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 03 Jun 18 11:35
Kincsem,

You can lead a horse to water etc ......... Wink

Whilst i disagree SW will not stay 12f, you make valid points above (and in another thread) and the word 'nonsense' used as a retort is simply ridiculous. It's all about opinons, and I respect yours, and other similarly minded posters. Good luck.
By:
jair1970
When: 03 Jun 18 12:23
they'd be crazy to run him over 12f again imo
plenty of 10f races to go at
By:
jair1970
When: 03 Jun 18 12:23
they'd be crazy to run him over 12f again imo
plenty of 10f races to go at
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 03 Jun 18 13:46
kincsem, I believe your analysis that Deep Impact did not stay 12 furlongs is nonsense and that he isn't a middle distance sire is also nonsense. You will have to learn to accept that not everyone can agree with you all the time. Betting on horse racing only exists because people will always have opposing opinions. That is my final word on the subject. I will not respond to you any further.
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