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epsom derby 2018

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Replies: 766
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 02 Jun 18 16:50
That's my biggest win of the year.

When I posted he was the e.w. value at 16-1 went on exchange and he was 26.0. Thought I'd have some and lay it of later at 12.0. But he kept going out and I kept betting him.


26.0, 27.0. 28.0. through 30's 40's took 50.0. Went to 82.0, but I was having none of that, I'm not stupid, I've already paid for the stable xmas party. Struggled for weeks but laid it all off around 20's.

Unbelievable, who was laying that, where were connections.

Travelled well all the way.
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jun 18 16:52
Well done 'Souldancer'! Everyone needs a winner like Masar to keep going.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 02 Jun 18 16:53
Same here Souldancer. Even topped up at 22/1 e/w earlier.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 16:53
Jack Bauer '
He hasn't handled the track, ran into trouble and then become unbalanced down the straight due to the camber.

Put the excuse book away.  He didn't stay.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 16:58
I'm sorry but you're wrong, stamina was not the issue but you are obviously going to continue with this Deep Impact nonsense which will be proven wrong in time. The horse clearly did not handle the track after meeting trouble in running.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 16:59
Kincsem, do you think he could've even won over 10f though? Never really looked like winning to me.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 02 Jun 18 17:00
Oisin did a peach of a job hemming Warrior in behind DEB and Masar. Got the trip okay but clearly not ideal for it. As many of us suspected the trip suited RL and Masar better.
By:
Sandown
When: 02 Jun 18 17:01
Just enjoying my very expensive humble pie.

First thoughts.


It was a stayers race as demonstrated by how Dee Ex Bee ran on.

Roaring Lion will be best at 10f.

SW ran so far below expectations that I won't be surprised if there is something wrong. He had every chance but not good enough. Didn't seem to have any finishing kick so either he didn't stay (as Kincem said all along) or maybe the horse did cough earlier.

The form looks average with Masar given a great ride. He came from the same place as RL & Sw at Tatt Crnr so he ran hugely better than expected.
Well done those who kept the faith.

I've got the race time figure at 120 provisionally with the finishing splits confirming that.

Expensive mistake ignoring value strategy.Looking for the winner is a virus that one can never really lose it seems.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 17:03
I can't recall anyone putting up a strong argument for the winner, maybe I've forgotten.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 17:04
Well done backers - fancied him strongly for the Guineas but not today.

Not saying it as an excuse for SW but there was definitely an advantage at Epsom today to being bang there and kicking on two furlongs out.

I’ll be looking to take Masar on next time.
By:
A_T
When: 02 Jun 18 17:04
SW is a big horse so maybe has stopped progressing - would give it one more chance though

you have to wonder with Ballydoyle running 5 and their best one hitting traffic problems -maybe not the best idea. but perhaps they didn't think SW was a cert so threw a bunch of darts at the board hoping for another Wings of Eagles
By:
impossible123
When: 02 Jun 18 17:05
Saxon Warrior's been backed off the board for the St James's Palace and Eclipse.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 02 Jun 18 17:06
I only got 29 on here and 18/1 each way with the books, so not quite in your league, SD.
Laying SW won me just as much, but bottled the place lay.
If I were a backer I’d not have been too happy with Moore’s tactics, seemed to assume he would get a gap and when it didn’t materialise he was being passed by horses on his outside. Obviously he’s not pegasus, but I’d not give up on him just yet and would expect to see him run a big race in an international or Irish champion.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 17:07
SW to win another Gp1 over any trip? I'd say odds against now.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 02 Jun 18 17:08
I made a case for Masar as the each way value towards the top of page 13, Fig.
Didn’t say he WOULD win, but you can’t be too bullish when they’re 20/1
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 02 Jun 18 17:10
My mate just text with a well done, he had the 2nd.

I text back who was 2nd I didn't notice. I had no idea.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 17:11
I will be looking to back him next time out at a decent price, I don't believe that was his true running.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 17:12
Yes Desmond O, I had forgotten, like you say e.w. is more than a fair shout at that price, well done.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 02 Jun 18 17:13
Page 1 for me.
By:
A_T
When: 02 Jun 18 17:14
one good thing we could well see the Derby winner in the King George - something which used to be a regular occurrence
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 02 Jun 18 17:17
well done winners (which did n't include me!)

Roaring Lion is an interesting one - going the better of the two when alongside Saxon Warrior but the overhead clearly showed him going left again which must have halted some of his momentum. I'm inclined to agree 10f will probably prove his optimum trip but they'll surely be tempted by a re-match on a more conventional(?)track at The Curragh, if they do so though they could be sacrificing the Eclipse.

The Guineas was still the best trial, just not quite in the way that the market expected...

I assume SBS thinks that should've been him if only Ferguson did n't send him all the dodgy 2yos last year Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 17:26
Yes Souldancer, seems a long time ago now, well done too.
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 17:29
Figgis
Kincsem, do you think he could've even won over 10f though? Never really looked like winning to me.


I thought he had little in his pedigree to recommend him for the English Derby.
What came to Saxon Warrior's assistance was the drying ground (good).
If it was soft I doubt he would have done as well (I laid him to be in the first four at 1.19 i.e. he was 1/5 to be in the top four).

His sire didn't stay 12f in the Arc (on drugs).
His sire's runners in Europe were bad horses and I listed them.
Deep Impact "stayed" extreme distances on the flat, hard japanese tracks where a big group of horses circle around (raising dust) and they sprint for the line.
I hope the Japanese TV audience enjoyed the race, and I hope they and the rest of the world realise that IRE/GB/FR racing is real racing, not the showbiz stuff they have, restricted to their own horses.

Deep Impact as top sire of 2yos in Japan from 2010 to 2017 uninterrupted should have pointed to precocity i.e. he produces 2yo winners.
And that suggests as their 3yo careers progress they get caught up by slower maturing types.

I would love to see him run in the St Leger for a laugh.

People blaming the jockey are clutching at straws. 
If the horse was good enough he would have been going forward, and not relying on luck in running.
When he got clear ground he did nothing.

I lost on the race, about €400, but I thought the favourite was a very false price.

What worries me is people learn all the phrases but do not do any work.
"the 2000 Guineas is the best trial for the Derby".  How many trial races have you assessed and over how many years?
"He will be better when he steps up in distance"  Why?  What are your facts/research?

Saxon Warrior might win on good or firmer over 10f on a flat track.
He was not impressive in the Guineas.
He won't go to Royal Ascot after that hard race
By:
kincsem
When: 02 Jun 18 17:32
Jack Bauer saying I'm wrong is proof enough for me.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 17:37
You really shouldn't get upset when someone doesn't agree with you. We are all supposed to be adults on here and be able to debate our opposing views with decorum.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 17:41
SW ran OK - met some trouble just as the winner was kicking clear and stayed on well enough. Will be interesting to see if they go for the Irish Derby.

Certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he still ends up the best of the 3 year old bunch, even if that is over shorter.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 17:42
The ridiculous hype was never justified - but that isn’t the horses fault.
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 02 Jun 18 17:43
Spot on uncle, as so often it isn't with this gang.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 17:48
kincsem 02 Jun 18 17:29 Joined: 12 Apr 04 | Topic/replies: 9,217 | Blogger: kincsem's blog

I lost on the race, about €400, but I thought the favourite was a very false price.


Given how much effort you went to show what a bad favourite he was surely a massive win and place lay was all you needed to do?
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 17:49
I blame the media (print and tv) more than Coolmore themselves. They are so desperate to hype everything as the next greatest thing - see Samcro for example.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 17:52
Don’t get me wrong Coolmore make some ridiculous comments too but if the press don’t report them as though they are gospel it would be much better.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 17:52
I have the winner as around average for the race. When I saw SW beaten, for a few moments I thought RL was going to sweep past the leaders. He was second best until tiring close home, so he probably didn't quite see out the 12f as well as I thought he would. Can obviously see why he'd be fancied dropping back to 10f. However I was still disappointed with him overall, as he looked all over the place early on, when he's normally so well balanced in the early stages of the race. That could be an argument that he'll do better on a flatter track, but I was even more disappointed that even though he eventually ended up travelling well I don't think he could've even got the better of Masar at 10f, when I fancied him to improve on his Guineas effort.

No idea who I'd fancy of these runners at the Curragh and don't think I'll be following any of them in the near future.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jun 18 18:11
I’d give Young Rascal another chance - got worked up beforehand, was stuck out wide the whole way and hated the track.
Looked at the Leger market but 20/1 isn’t tasty enough for me at this stage and he isn’t even quoted on Betfair.
By:
jair1970
When: 02 Jun 18 19:18
can't help but reflect on the markets for Saxon Warrior in a couple of his races.
8/1 not picked by Moore on debut.
uneasy and hard to pick between him and Gustav Klimt in the Guineas.

The horse almost built his own hype by keeping winning
By:
Howellsy
When: 02 Jun 18 19:25
Saxon Warrior's Guineas form was totally vindicated at Epsom. That's clearly not how good he is as a horse.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 02 Jun 18 19:27
I would agree H, it was the 2000 what won it.  SW will have his day again no doubt about it.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 19:32
Exactly, and despite being unbalanced up the straight he has still stayed on well all the way to line. To suggest he hasn't stayed 12 furlongs is just nonsense, he was already wobbling and not travelling long before stamina would be an issue. I hope he goes to the Irish Derby.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 19:36
Domino is still maintaining that his info was genuine and the coughing has cost him the race.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Jun 18 19:59
SW was never winning today at any trip. Unless you believe Masar has actually improved from the Guineas (I don't) then if SW had run to his Guineas form he'd have won. He was supposed to have been backwards for the Guineas and confidently expected to improve for the run. I'm not really having that it was the track. It was a regressive run.

The question is has his form just temporarily taken a dip that he'll recover from? He had grown and it's possible he'll need time to strengthen with the growth, plus the Guineas was a hard race whatever anyone said about it being an easy win. Or is he a horse that has already peaked, like Churchill did in the Irish Guineas last year? I say it's odds on the latter, and from that yard it's more likely that he'll be priced up to forgive his Derby run, rather than offering any value to stay on his side.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 02 Jun 18 20:10
You may well be right that the run was regressive for reasons other than the track but to my eyes he was obviously unbalanced down the straight after meeting trouble, and it was clearly a contributing factor.
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