According to the Sporting Life website Thunder Snow goes to the Kentucky Derby instead of the 2000 Guineas.

if oisin can get dream castle to settle early on in the race and use his speed late he must have a great chance..

churchill reminds me of teofilo. jim bolger said with a glint in his eye that they only way he'd get beat was if he was up against a significantly better horse, otherwise he'd just out battle them.

so he's got those similar terrier qualities however the vibes don't seem great and he's up against some very serious opposition with eminent etc, so that at least brings some doubts about whether it's wise to back him at the current short odds.

Says*

Do you believe he is the best horse in the raceand can win, he did run well last time after pulling so hard but Barney roy did pick him up and kick clear in a matter of strides

can't see Dream Castle settling well enough to see out a mile in this class

king its hard to know..its like asking would a horse have won if he didnt fall 2 out .he certainly looked top class for most of the race..

Just 12.

An interesting renewal.
My ratings:
Churchill 114
Eminent 110
Barney Roy 109
Al Wukair 109

Churchill has raced 6 times, doing little wrong, proving himself very tough under pressure. I'm not sure how much scope there is for improvement but I would guess being a Galileo there'll be a few pounds for the extra furlong. We'll have to assume he's had the typical Ballydoyle prep and will be primed to run his race, and that there will be at least one pacemaker - I think he needs a strong gallop.

The two English trial winners are in principle entitled to improve past Churchill, as they posted such good efforts on their second starts.Very few such inexperienced horses win those trials and both put up exciting performances. Since the trials are usually won by proven horses with solid 2yo form, we would not expect much improvement, but this is the fascination this year - both could in theory improve past the fav. However, I think there are two crucial factors against them.

Firstly, Churchill is simply more toughened / seasoned then them. Reviewing the Dewhurst, I feel the most interesting furlong is the sixth, where the high class sprinter Blue Point makes his run outside Churchill. You would expect BP to be at his best in the 6th furlong, yet Churchill kept up with him and still had plenty left to post a decent final furlong. Neither Eminent nor Barney Roy have been in the furnace with horses of that calibre.

However, even if we allow that they might have the ability to cope with that, there is the matter of the 14/16 day gap between trial and big race. I just can't believe that's ideal. Churchill will have had exactly the prep O'Brien wanted (we assume) whereas I can't believe any trainer would ideally want their horse to have such a big step forward and to post such a decent speed figure just a fortnight before the event.

Eminent did very well to beat a horse like Rivet, although it would have been more interesting had Larchmont Lad been running in the same group. Eminent's weakness for me is that he has never raced against quick horses, never even been 7f, let alone 6, and that a fast pace could stop him finishing his race, especially if he's too close to it. The fact that he was entered for the Fielden suggests his trainer must have some doubts about his speed. If he could be held up in rear, avoiding the early fractions, maybe he could come through and challenge Churchill. Or if it proves to be one of those days which favours the pace, like last year, then I suppose he could just keep going like Galileo Gold did.

Barney Roy has at least now raced at 7f, but the field was of a low standard, so he's never raced against anything decent. Dream Castle might prove to be high class but he was a spent force inside the last and not that difficult to pick off. It was a fast time and in theory he's quick enough to win a Guineas but the bounce factor and the step up in class could find him out. He might be keen here, having had to go quicker than he wanted to for parts of the trial. I'd like to think, given a hold up ride, he'll finish strongly and perhaps improve past Churchill in Ireland or Ascot (I suspect this will be Eminent's last go at a mile, but in theory I would expect him too to improve past Churchill at some stage).

The more interesting one may be AL Wukair, as he has had 4 weeks off, which might make a difference. He also raced twice at 2, which helps, although both were over a mile and therefore against relatively slow horses, thus his having to be stoked along in his 7f trial despite being held up many lengths in the rear. My worry about this horse is whether he will stay. Can Dream Ahead sire a Guineas winner? I can't recall the last son of a true sprinter (with no track record of producing milers) who won the Guineas, though I guess Kingman went close enough. Fabre has to be respected and it will be fascinating to see if he stays.

I think Churchill will probably win due to his experience and presumably ideal prep. The other 3 are all exciting animals but Eminent and BRoy will probably be found out by a combination of the 'bounce' and a lack of experience. Al Wukair can pose the biggest threat if he stays. I'd back Churchill and Al Wukair at evens the pair if that becomes possible - it isn't at present.

I posted this on boards.ie this afternoon.

Al Wukair
Three runs, three wins.  He ran in the Prix Djebel 7f on 10th April.
“In rear, last and nearly 10 lengths off leader approaching halfway, good headway on outer 1 1/2f out, driven to lead final 125yds out, soon in command”
The Wiki page for the Prix Djebel shows his time of 1:23.03 is the second fastest time (1:23.00 fastest) in that race.  Times are shown from 1994 onwards on Wiki.
Watch the race on Youtube and you will see he let the field get away from him and then showed great pace to go around them.  The worry is will he keep with the 2000 Guineas field as it would be a mistake to concede ground unnecessarily.  If it was deliberate it provided a good test.
He ran and won over a mile as a 2yo so should get the mile.

Barney Roy
A serious contender although only two runs, two wins.
I watched his maiden win (9/1) at Haydock on Youtube.  From 1f out he walked away from the field to win by 4l.  He looks a very strong bodied horse.
He won the Greenham 7f on 22nd April in a good time 1:23.08 by 2l, 4l, the third fastest since 1971 on the Wiki page.

Churchill
He is the 6/4 favourite.  He has won his last five races after being 3rd on his debut.
He was a big strong fine looking two year old.

I always look for a weakness and here it might be the 8f distance of the 2000 Guineas.
His sire Galileo was a 12f horse and his dam Meow a 5f filly (5 races at 5f).
Meow’s dam Airwave ran 5x5f, 14x6f, 1x7f, 2x8f, and her dam Kangra Valley ran 15x5f, 1x6f, and he dam Thorner Lane ran 4x5f, 2x6f.  Churchill’s dam line is all minimum distance sprinters.
In the Dewhurst he won by 1 1/4l from Lancaster Bomber who was beaten twice since, and who came from 4th in the Dewhurst to finish 2nd, imo closing at the line.
In Churchill’s previous race, the Group 1 National Stakes 7f at The Curragh he beat Mehmas by 4 ¼ l.  If you look at the race you will see that Mehmas slightly headed Churchill at the 1f pole and lost 4l in the last furlong in that 7f race.  The other races of Mehmas were 2x5f, 5x6f.  I believe Churchill was flattered beating a 5f/6f sprinter over the last furlong of a 7f race on yielding.
Looking at the race on Youtube you will see that Churchill looks about twice the size of Mehmas.
I think Churchill will struggle against the other three major contenders, Al Wukair, Barney Roy, Eminent, who are all big strong horses.
Another worry is all Churchill’s races were in slow times, more than three seconds above standard, with the exception of his last race, the Dewhurst, which was 1.30 slow.  In his one race on fast ground, the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown, he won by a neck (3.37 slow).

Dream Castle
Two runs, both in 2017, and beaten by Barney Roy in the Greenham 7f, the 3rd another 4l away.
His price has fallen recently.   He would have to reverse the form with Barney Boy.
A problem might be his running style: 1st race “Took keen hold early”; 2nd race “Raced freely, prominent”

Eminent
Two runs, two wins, and his sire is the mighty Frankel.
The owners of Frankel will have most to win or lose here, a classic win to boost Frankel as a sire.
Eminent won the Craven Stakes 8f on 20th April, outstaying the field “driven to lead inside final furlong, stayed on strongly and going away at finish”.  The time was good 1:35.15, the fastest of the Craven Stakes times on the Wiki page from 1980.
He looks a big, strong horse, much like his father, and the time was good.  He is a contender.

Lancaster Bomber
He is one of four Aidan O’Brien entries.  Won a maiden in a seven race career, but also has been second in a Group 1 race and a Grade 1 race.  He has been beaten three times in races won by Churchill.  It will be a surprise if he wins but not without a chance.

Larchmont Lad
Four runs, two wins, a 3rd and a 5th.  The 3rd he was beaten a sh hd and a nse.  The 5th place was in his last race, the Craven, where he was 4 1/4l behind Eminent.
If you want an excuse for that run it was that he was on the far side of the race in a group of three, and away from the winning group.  He lost a lot of ground late.

Law And Order
He has two wins from seven runs, one on all weather.  The level of his form does not look up to winning this.

Peace Envoy
This is another Aidan O’Brien entry.  Two wins from eight starts, all of them from 5f to 6f63y.
It will be a major surprise if he can win here.  My guess is he will make the pace.

Rivet
This is trained by William Haggas.  He does not often run a horse in a classic and when he does it usually contends.  Second to Eminent in the Craven Stakes 8f in a fast time, and 5th to Churchill in last year’s Dewhurst.  In the Craven he tried to make all but was outpaced by Eminent in the last furlong.  He looks a smaller horse than some of the principals in the race.  He might do better with something else making the pace in the 2000 Guineas.
He looks like an ideal Epsom Derby type to me, fit, medium size, manageable, a fighter (and he has a Derby entry).

Spirit Of Valor
Moderate form, and does not look competitive at this level.
Cost USD 850,000 and doesn’t look like recouping it.
His pedigree is USA on the sire and dam sides.

Top Score
Has run his last four races in Meydan, two wins on turf, two on dirt 3rd and 11th.
Unusually for a 2000 Guineas runner he has run four times this year, 11 races in total.
It will be a surprise if he wins.

Prediction
1 Al Wukair
2 Eminent
3 Barney Roy
4 Rivet
5 Churchill
6 Larchmont Lad
7 Dream Castle
8 Lancaster Bomber
9 Law And Order
10 Top Score
11 Spirit Of Valor
12 Peace Envoy

Good valid points made by both 'Howellsy' and 'kincsem', it sure is an intriguing race to dissect.

In America Lancaster Bomber ran a very good race from a bad draw; at Meydan the ground was totally against him thus his two recent defeats could be excused. In the Dewhurst he came up the rails - better ground - to finish 2nd to Churchill who, I firmly believe, will be suited the most by the extra furlong.

Churchill and Al Wukair have the best juvenile form, and I hope there is pace in the race on saturday.

I think Churchy will win convincingly. I just don't think there's anything there to give him a tough time. Easy to say a 6/4 shot will win, but i rate him highly, and i think he's a good level above these at a mile. I don't know where the e/w value could be. I'd say maybe Larchmont lad at 50/1. To me the prices of Barney, Em and Al wukair look too short.

james doyle on barney and de sousa on dream castle

Looking at the race on Youtube you will see that Churchill looks about twice the size of Mehmas

Judging them on looks last year Churchill, a good looking, imposing 2yo, would easily come out on top. So it will be interesting to see how he compares this year.

He looks a different creature altogether. He's big, he's powerful, he has a good mind and he's a great mover. He's physically very big, but he's not a big long yoke, he's compact, strong and well made

Reading O'Brien's words it's difficult to know what to make of his physical progress. He starts off by saying he looks a different creature altogether, which is odd as he was always an eye-catcher, then follows it with a description that pretty much sums up the horse we saw last year.

It will also be interesting to see how the others look physically after their trials.

I believe there was a tailwind when the Craven was run.
Can anyone confirm this, and if so how string, and what about the Greenham and Prix Djabel?
They were also fast times.  Was it  the conditions or the horse?

Harry i made my post as so many people are taking Churchill on. I don't know why you're saying everyone's on him.  I'm not too with stats and all the rest of it. Churchill has made the best impression on me by a distance. He looks classy and uncomplicated, and may be better suited to the mile than others.. I wish i had a decent voucher. I don't. They don't make noises about their horses as they're all filling their pockets. They've very little regard for anyone outwith their circle.

I agree with Graeme. Can't wait to see Churchill in the paddock he looks all class. He reminds me of Sangsters Revoque. Tough and hardy and does what it is needed. We all know that John Reid got stuck too far behind Entrepreneur on the day and was flying at the finish. I just hope Moore keeps him up there and if he does I think he will outstay this lot and win going away.

Only a short post required here - Al Wukair wins

al wukair will be the best of these by October, but can he handle the the dip