well said Pete, good to see different opinions debated in a grown-up and non-confrontational manner........

Only way I can see Churchill running in the Dante (or any other Derby trial) is if the Guineas is abandoned for some reason. Even then it would be unlikely -  it's just not the way AOB works.

Yeah the Dante seemed to show Mister B would not stay -  but MJ ran him at Epsom anyway!

Yeah the Dante seemed to show Mister B would not stay -  but MJ ran him at Epsom anyway!

Yes, seemed absurd.

Australia was beaten in the guineas but there never any suggestion he would ruck up in the Dante

The Dante maybe?

one swallow doesn't make a summer

A_T, so one swallow doesn't make a summer, well the Peter Miller-trained Conquest Farenheit, winner of the Pasadena Stakes over a mile at Santa Anita last month is another “swallow” for your perusal; he is heading to Churchill Downs for the G2, $300,000 American Turf Stakes (8.5f) on May 6th.

In real numbers over 5-7f  Scat Daddy 2yo’s have 94 wins, along with 38 wins over a mile; his 3yo’s are 5-7f/70 wins, milers/161, and 10-12f/24, and his older horses are 5-7f/9, milers/25, and 10-12f/8.

There are numerous examples of Scat Daddy juvenile offspring training-on well, yet you insist this is not the case; surely you could then provide us with some good examples to substantiate your claims?

If you cannot, I think your analysis has a lazy feel to it and on that basis even if in this instance Caravaggio does not train on  I doubt you will be able to say “I told you so” in all honesty.

Madhu I think you're desperately trying to convince yourself that Caravaggio will train on. I'm still far from convinced we'll even see it on a racecourse again.

A_T

There are numerous examples of Scat Daddy juvenile offspring training-on well, yet you insist this is not the case; surely you could then provide us with some good examples to substantiate your claims?

If you cannot, I think your analysis has a lazy feel to it and on that basis even if in this instance Caravaggio does not train on  I doubt you will be able to say “I told you so” in all honesty.

The main problem for Caravaggio backers, surely, will be whether or not he can stretch his stamina to a mile.

Scat Daddy's best progeny is lop-sided to 2yos - and top class European 3yos have been lacking. If Caravaggio doesn't make an impact at 3 it won't be a surprise.

top class European 3yos have been lacking- Due to lack of opportunities thus far I am afraid.

I see 2 possible futures for Caravaggio: he never races again, or, as I said earlier in the thread, he could do well in races like the Cork and Orrery and the July Cup when WFA is so favourable. As Figgis points out he possibly doesn't need to train on to win these races.

He's not going to be winning Group 1 mile races though.

A_T- I see 2 possible futures for Caravaggio: he never races again, or, as I said earlier in the thread, he could do well in races like the Cork and Orrery and the July Cup when WFA is so favourable. As Figgis points out he possibly doesn't need to train on to win these races.

Firstly, there is no Cork and Orrery Stakes nowadays since it became the Diamond Jubilee Stakes 15 years ago to commemorate the Golden Jubilee of Queen Elizabeth II, and the latter is also now only open to horses aged four years or older.

Secondly Figgis stated- Also horses who don't train on can sometimes still be got ready to win early in the season. We'll need to see how she goes on from this to say if she's really trained on or not.

If you are trying to draw a comparison here by saying there will still be grounds to think a three-year-old, who having managed to win “two” top class sprint races at that age, has not proved categorically they have trained on, you are being absurd.  You are making me think of your earlier post- A_T (i123) you come across as either someone on a wind-up or someone who has only just started taking an interest in racing 


even if in this instance Caravaggio does not train on  I doubt you will be able to say “I told you so” in all honesty.
you must have posted that 3 times now. you don't sound very confident.   

I have posted it repeatedly because you have inadvertently not answered the original. I doubt you can.

^Pointless post of the year award right there.

There's an argument that Deauville is an easier mile, which it is, but for me he'll either stay a mile or he won't and I don't see the slightly easier mile being much of a factor. Another thing to consider is we often get quite a moderately run French Guineas. The straight mile at Deauville is a bit less prone to slowly run races than those run at Longchamp but it still happens as it's the way many French races are run. Caravaggio hasn't shown headstrong tendencies so far but it might be difficult trying to restrain him on his first run at a mile run at a slow early pace. The likely pace at Newmarket would make it much easier to drop him in.

Did The Gurkha (TG) not go to France because of the accolade status of Air Force Blue (AFB)? But the latter met with defeat in the Guineas -did not train on - plus the emphatic domination of The Gurkha in the French Guineas catapulted TG to be AOB's number 1 3yr old colt.

I think (and hope) with Churchill going straight to the Guineas without a prep AOB is feeling happy with his progress since last season; I believe Caravaggio could still go to the French equivalent if War Decree does not perform to expectation in the Craven, and no harm if Caravaggio is unsuccessful in France.

the cases of The Gurkha and Caravaggio could not be more different. the latter is well exposed and to me everything about it screams speedy 2yo only.