Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 605 comments are related to the topic:
2017 2000 Guineas
2017 2000 Guineas
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 605
|
By:
anyone have any quotes from fabre and ms head after the djebel ? is it beyond the realms of possibility that the national defense could also come over ? i know the french gns looks the obv rout now but not a lot beteen the 2 !
|
|
By:
between ^^^^^^^^
|
|
By:
Criquette Head-Maarek, trainer of National Defense, had expressed a preference for staying in France for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains at Deauville a week after the Guineas, and nothing she saw here will disrupt that plan.
"He ran well and we won’t change anything, we are going to Deauville," said Head-Maarek, whose Classic heroes and heroines have suffered defeat in one of the Maisons-Laffitte trials almost as often as they have come out on top. "The winner is a very good horse. We were beaten by a better horse today and we have no excuse. He didn’t blow too hard afterwards but no doubt the race will bring him on. I think he’ll be better back up to a mile." |
|
By:
thanks harry
|
|
By:
Al Wukair was cut to a best priced 8/1 second-favourite for 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6 behind Aidan O'Brien's 6/4 shot Churchill, and connections were quick to confirm the first colts' Classic of the British season as his intended target.
Harry Herbert, racing manager for the owners, said: "I wasn't there myself, but I watched the race and have spoken to the team and he was clearly very impressive. "He is still a little bit green and there was some ring-rustiness there, but the acceleration he has is so exciting - he has a fantastic turn of foot. "He does it all so easily at home and is held in very high regard by Andre. He showed signs that he's still an inexperienced horse, which is why Andre was so keen to go to the Djebel with him. "I think he's a very exciting colt and all being well he'll be aimed for the English 2000 Guineas. "I would expect him to be much sharper for that, he'll need to be, and we all look forward to seeing him at Newmarket at the start of May." Fabre, who has won the 2000 Guineas twice before with Zafonic (1993) and Pennekamp (1995), added: "I'm very pleased and he will now go to Newmarket. "He is a very different horse to Zafonic. He was like a powerful bull. This is a more laid-back horse, but he has a beautiful action and a lot of class. "I wouldn't say he was green, he was just a little bit flat-footed over the seven furlongs. I think stepping up to a mile will help him." |
|
By:
Totally respect what jm123 is saying regarding sprinter/miler bred types in the Guineas - very poor record.
If you didn't know he was by Dream Ahead and just went on the visual impression of his actual performances it suggests a mile is no problem - indeed he won over a mile as a two year old from a decent field. |
|
By:
Thought I read somewhere just recently Criquette Head said National Defense would not take on Al Wukair again or in the 2000G at Newmarket. My immediate thought post Al Wukair's impressive win in the Djebel was would AOB have a change of heart and field Caravaggio (1st preference French 2000G) together with Churchill at Newmarket after all?; the French 2000G without Al Wukair is a much easier race to win (on paper).
|
|
By:
agree with the stamina issue being important for a guineas. that would be the worry with Caravaggio as well.
one thing I would say is that I can't recall a Fabre horse being aimed at a race and then not staying. Maybe people can think of examples of one of his that didn't get home in a big race but I can't think of any. I could say the same about O'Brien and maybe it's the case that the pump them full of stamina drugs but whatever the pedigree they seem to last home. Maybe it's the case with other trainers when they have one with possibly dubious stamina they train them the wrong way or run them too prominently that they don't last home, whereas with more masterly trainers they work much more on conditioning? just a thought. |
|
By:
He won over 1m as a 2yo and yes you could say it was a long way from the opposition he'll face in the Guineas and the stamina he'll need to show there, but would Fabre really run a 2yo over that trip if he wasn't fully expected to get at least that distance as a 3yo? Seems unlikely to me. I doubt it will be lack of stamina that beats him I just think he probably won't be quite good enough, although lightly raced types can improve massively from one run to the next at this time of year so you never know.
|
|
By:
Respectfully jm123.
Al Wukair is not bred to win a guineas An extra 1f, fast pace and stiff finish at Nmkt will be a world away from todays Djebel…Just dont see a son of Dream Ahead winning a guineas ie staying a mile well enough in top company… there will be at least 1 other G1 miler or Derby type lurking…Id have Al Wukair pinned as a horse that is going to come between 2nd-5th come the day… Folly to ignore the mother but i just cant get away from the Dream Ahead sire lines that give the fast family breeding. For me the question is what type of stallions breed newmarket 2000 guineas winners ? And Dream Ahead isnt one of them imho. Im suggesting he is a sprint-miler on pedigree & that these types are often found out in a Newmarket Guineas where the mile early 3yo season rides more like a 9f race. If he does fail but proves himself later in the year at G1 miles then id argue it probably was due to stamina at Newmarket (ala Kingman) as whilst Al Wukair could have the pedigree to win a St James Palace stakes, Prix Foret etc i think the newmarket test in may is a different beast and challenge altogether. Year after year people underestimate it and i just dont see Al Wukair has the breeding on either side to really relish it despite any visual impressions & trainer talk yesterday. Lets see time will tell. By my understanding you appear to be suggesting Al Wukair has a sprint/miler pedigree and that his young sire Dream Ahead (Sprint Cup winner) is an amplifier, that is, he will take whatever the mare offered him (miler, stayer, etc) and superimpose his brilliant speed and the fast bits of his family (sire Diktat Sprint Cup winner/dam Land Of Dreams (won Flying Childers and King George Stakes over 5f by top-class sprinter Cadeaux Genereux (Sprint Championship/Nunthorpe Stakes and July Cup), who in turn is out of Molecomb Stakes winner, Sahara Star by another July Cup winner in Green Desert. When looked at another way, Dream Ahead is a remnant of the In Reality sire-line in Europe; his sire Diktat, a champion older sprinter (Sprint Cup) is a grandson of top-class miler Warning (G1 Sussex Stakes and G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes) and his 3rd sire English Champion Miler (1980) Known Fact also sired European Champion Older Miler Markofdistinction alongside two G1 Nunthorpe Stakes winners Bold Fact and So Factual. Also interesting is Land Of Dreams´ has also produced Into The Dark, a 10f-11f Listed winner by Rainbow Quest, a stamina influence. As far as I’m concerned the Ballydoyle pair George Washington (06) and Rock of Gibraltar (02), both sired by Danehill, are notable 2000 Guineas winners sired by a sprinter; Danehill may be classified as a top-class sprinter-miler because he happened to come 3rd in the 2,000 Guineas behind Nashwan (89) and fourth in the Irish equivalent, but for all intents and purposes he was indeed a champion sprinter (won the Cork and Orrery Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Haydock Sprint Cup). I would agree it certainly would be “folly to ignore the mother” since Al Wukair’s dam Macheera (by Machiavellian (9.1f)) won Prix Mongolie (Unraced Fillies) over a mile at Saint-Cloud as a two-year-old, and there is more stamina influence on his distaff side than just his aforementioned 2nd dam Prix de Diane victress Caerlina; his 3rd dam Shahinaaz came second in Prix de Royallieu (2,500m/12.5f) was dam of Karadar (G3 Doncaster Cup), Karamita (Princess Royal Stakes, 12f Ascot, G3 (now the British Champions Fillies' and Mares' Stakes), and Kartajana (G1 Prix Ganay); moreover, Al Wukair’s tail female is loaded with stamina influence in Nijinsky (4D), Top Ville (4D), and Halo (4D), and through his dam sire Machiavellian he holds the pervasive influence of the sire line of Mr. Prospector, Raise A Native, Native Dancer; one of the most significant source of stamina in the history of the American Triple Crown. Lastly, I do somewhat agree with the notion that there are types who are “found out in a Newmarket Guineas where the mile early 3yo season rides more like a 9f race” but your argument is half-baked and pre-determining Al Wukair in the eventuality of coming 2nd-5th a non-stayer and a possible come later stayer covers all the bases. To be honest I think your cherry-picking emphasis and being almost dismissive of his distaff side has a lazy feel to it and on that basis if he were to be outstayed come the day I doubt you will be able to say “I told you so” in all honesty. |
|
By:
Danehill sired Derby and Arc winners.
|
|
By:
very positive quotes from andre fabre there after the djebel and mm head avoiding a rematch suggest the winner is very decent and the 2nd no mug either , and as said before they would have left some to work on, dont know when aobs start to shuffle their cards and guessing here but recall gleneagles being fairly easy to back untill 2-3 weeks before the gns ,then a sudden rush of money for him after he must have impressed in trials at home and he emerged as their no.1, so expecting a pointer in the markets as to where aobs stand in pecking order in the next week or so !
|
|
By:
had a bit more time to digest the race now and i've got to say the price on al wukair really is a nonsense in my book at 4/1
yes he won well and he beat a supposed decent horse but national defense is a horse i think is just ok and has run choke out the whole way as is his want and the winner has basically benefited from a well run race, add to which the trainer is flying at present so this horse would be been pretty straight anyway i can only think the price is to do with the supposed electric time he ran but really i don't by that, as the prix imprudence was run at a dawdle and the earlier fillies race was also run in typical french style and when you look at the horses running in the 2 fillies races they were pretty average sorts, so for them to go the pace they did in those other 2 races it isn't surprising al wukairs time looks a quick time, also ultra who won a listed race on the card ran 2.5 seconds under standard, is he a top class colt in the making or was the track running fast??? anyway i haven't bet in the guineas but i think people have gone way over board here in my reading of the race, also how they rating the race and the form of the race, no doubt they are 2 nice colts but for me handicapping them i have them as no more than just nice types and certainly not a guineas winner obviously al wukair can step again but the market is saying he has stepped up to a top level already and personally i still think he has a long way to go and at 4/1 it is just a horrible over-reaction in my book, others will obviously feel they have a big edge in what looks a weak guineas but i'd be wanting the 7/1-8/1 he was straight after the race anyway don't want to be a knocker as he looks a very nice horse, just that me handicapping him i don't have him the machine the market says he is and for what it is worth i'd take the second from the race myself |
|
By:
The relentless support for Al Wukair into 4/1 since beating National Defense in the Djebel has resulted in Churchill being pushed out to 7/4 (here); if this price remains on race day Churchill could prove to be the more attractive bet than Al Wukair (I think) given his more solid form lines; Akihiro, another inmate of A Fabre, beat National Defense further than Al Wukair.
|
|
By:
I agree with harry that 4/1 Al Wukair represents poor value for money now, but 8/1 post-Djebel was certainly fair value. Fabre's enthusiasm for this horse is infectious and I'm not surprised that there has been relentless support for him since the Djebel. I've no doubt that Criquette Head-Maarek had left something to work on with the runner-up National Defense, but it was still an eye-catching performance by the winner to come from an unpromising position and sweep past a Group 1 winner (last season's top juvenile in France). The drying ground undoubtedly helped Al Wukair, as he has gears; good fast ground at Newmarket will suit him ideally. A mile should be no problem. He has been impressive in all three of his races to date (including a casual brushing aside of last Sunday's Gr.3 Prix Vanteaux winner in a Listed race last October), and he looks a serious classic challenger. Backable at 4/1 now? Probably not. But he's a very exciting prospect.
|
|
By:
think you are over-analysing it harry... if fabre says it's got a good chance it's got a good chance... he's not brian meehan.
|
|
By:
it was still an eye-catching performance by the winner to come from an unpromising position
I agree it looked quite eye catching but wouldn't agree he was in an unpromising position, he was in the best place considering how the race was run. |
|
By:
obviously a lot depends on how much aobs have progressed over the winter and there are a few unexposed maiden winners who could be a bit tasty but emphasis is on the word" COULD BE" , al wukair has at least shown himself to be as good as last season and probably a fair bit better , 4/1 now and and that seems short but if you consider when this thread started last june carravagio was 4/1 with some books almost a year away from the race , anyway a lot can change in the coming weeks and something could come out of the woodwork, hoping carravagio turns up as he could be special plus pocket reasons tbh
|
|
By:
interesting comments from Aiden on his stable tour on the attheraces website... seems to think Caravaggio is brilliant but might be a sprinter... churchill doing unbelievably at home.. very sweet on him it would seem, reading between the lines.
|
|
By:
the more i think about this race the more I think Churchill is a lump. why? because it will turn into a battle inside the final furlong, the 2000 guineas almost always does, and one thing this horse can do is get his head down and battle. that's why they called him churchill.
|
|
By:
what do people think of churchill for the derby? it might just outclass them as there doesn't strike me as lot of quality there
obviously the trip could be an issue but being out of galileo and the laid back way he races you'd have to fancy him to get it. |
|
By:
Caravaggio
Aidan O'Brien in the Racing Post Stable Tour Monday, April 10th stated in the Churchill part “… From this coming weekend it's three weeks to the 2000 Guineas, so the next two weeks will be key…” And on Caravaggio “…we’re planning to send him for the Guineas at Newmarket or to the French Guineas.” “We’ll have to see if he gets mile, if he doesn’t then we’ll concentrate on shorter distances.” Then in the ATR Aidan O’Brien 2017 Stable Tour, April 13, on Caravaggio it is “We are training him for the [G1] Poule d’Essai des Poulains [May 14] at the moment[/b He goes on to say “… [b]if we see anything that makes us think that asking him to try a mile is the wrong thing between now and then, we’ll run him elsewhere.” The way I see it, the statements taken together still imply Caravaggio has as yet no concrete target; however, there is now added ambiguity given as to whether he will eventually be tested over a mile. He is coincidently entered in the Duke Of York Stakes (G2) on May 17th, where, as a three-year-old he will carry no G1 penalty by the looks of it. To me the middle of April was always going to be the crucial period, with the Ballydoyle horses expected to be by now lean and fit and moving on from cantering to fast work and stronger work; the latter in the case of Caravaggio in particular, meaning on an uphill gallop to gauge endurance and stamina for a mile. It could just as well be that the feedback from work riders and data analysis (“if we see anything”) in the coming days may in fact be extremely positive by all accounts, and for these reasons I would argue Newmarket remains a possibility still. |
|
By:
must be tempting to keep Caravaggio to 6f - WFA is so favourable in the early part of the season
|
|
By:
Is there any Gp1/2 race prior to the French 2000G? If none, I think there is no harm running Caravaggio in it to fact find if he stays 8f; if he does stay, more options will be opened for him; the likelihood of Churchill running in the Epsom Derby increasing many folds, I'd have thought. At the moment should War Decree excel in his trial (Craven, I believe) he'd be French 2000G bound instead, with Caravaggio rerouted / confined to Sprint races in the future.
|
|
By:
Churchill running in the Epsom Derby?
I think it's very unlikely. He's very speedily bred on the dam's side, and I get the impression that he's a miler rather than a middle distance horse. |
|
By:
anyone back al wukair 33/1 the pricewise morning ?
keep or to lay off what do you guys think ? |
|
By:
It`s a no brainer.
|
|
By:
I think Al Wukair at 4/1 is a lay to retrieve capital (at least).
Regards Churchill, I do agree there is plenty of speed on the dam's side but I am more than hopeful Churchill will get 10f but 12f is an unknown. But the manner he runs eg casually lobbing along behind, before picking up and running on at the business end of his races so far (7f) that 12f is within his compass; post this race, and probably post the Dante will shed more light on his chances of running in the Epsom Derby. |
|
By:
what bearing do you think the Dante has on Churchill's Derby participation?
|
|
By:
If Churchill wins this race convincingly, then goes for the Dante and wins going away after being held up until the final furlong then it is odds-on connections will aim him at the Derby, I firmly believe - the reward justifies the risk.
|
|
By:
If Churchill wins this race convincingly, then goes for the Dante
Must be about 50/1 on that happening alone, never mind winning the Dante and Derby. |
|
By:
i123 you come across as either someone on a wind-up or someone who has only just started taking an interest in racing
|
|
By:
I would have thought that with the dam being Meow (a sprinter) it is hugely unlikely that Churchill will stay well enough to win a Derby. That said, Meow's half-sister Always Aloof stayed 10f, and given Churchill's style of racing there is every prospect that he will at least stay that far and if he wins the Guineas convincingly going away then I'm sure we will see that theory tested sooner rather than later.
|
|
By:
South Seas didn't exactly do a lot for the Dewhurst form today. Having seen the finish of the Dewhurst again today Churchill really doesn't appeal at all at 6/4.
|
|
By:
I agree uncle and for me Al Wukair is a strong pick as the likeliest winner of the winner.
Already shown he's improved over the winter, and hard not to be impressed with the strength of his Prix Isonomy win and his comprehensive victory over proper G1 horse in National Defense. Any slight doubts over the sire's stamina are offset on the dam's side (Caerlina) and maybe even more so by the master trainer's judgement (running him at 1m at 2, post-Djebel comment that 7f too sharp). 5/1 is still a good bet IMHO. |
|
By:
galileos often stay the distance even if the dam is a speedster. he's a dominant sire.
|
|
By:
A_T, with due respect Horse Racing is not an exact science similarly neither is Economics nor Politics. As such, I'd 2nd guess as following the herd (here and racing pundits) is neither financially productive nor educational. However, the temperament of Churchill and his ability to quicken off a slow / strong pace fills me with hope but 1st he'd need to prove it in a Derby trial eg The Dante.
I'm not a newbie, and have been following horse racing for many years - more as a hobby then - but always accept that there are many factors involved when backing a winner; the last two / three years more seriously as I find it rather satisfying mentally and financially helps when one's judgement is proven correct and vindicated. I know there are some "oldies" here who do not take kindly to a line of thought slightly different to theirs ie they know best and never wrong, but that does not bother me at all,...the proof of the pudding is in the eating, as they say; personal insult or derision in horse racing I worry not, and i can certainly hold my own against them. I have even put several of these "smart alex" on ignore as they are not what this forum is about and neither do they provide the funds for my bets - they certainly do not contribute to my winnings. Of course, there is a doubt Churchill may not stay the Derby trip; if he proves he stays the Dante trip, goes to the Derby and runs as well as El Gran Senor did in 1984 I'd be extremely happy - he does not need to win; I just like to see good and classy horses in the Derby. There is no obligation to read my posts if they bring out the insecurity in you. Horse Racing is mainly about opinions, and do not take it too seriously - it can damage your health and prosperity. Good luck! |
|
By:
1st he'd need to prove it in a Derby trial eg The Dante.
I'm not a newbie, and have been following horse racing for many years The first comment suggests otherwise. |
|
By:
I123 you are pretty much the biggest favourite backer on here.
You even started this thread proclaiming Carravagio as the second coming after he had won the Coventry, and then put all your eggs in the Churchill basket after he became favourite. How is any of that not following the herd.  As for continually thinking that Coolmore might run Churchill in a Derby trial after the Guineas just shows how little you understand. |
|
By:
Leave the lad alone - he's got a good thread going here. Everyone is entitled to his own opinion.
|