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Couldn't disagree any more Figgis. I think Caravaggio looks a bit special.
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Fair enough Graeme. I'm not crabbing the form today, I rated him highly last year and today's win wasn't far off his best. Even if he continues to run to that mark he'll be very hard to beat. It's just that I've seen 3yos throughout the years that looked like they're as good as they were first time out only to go backwards. Physically during the race he didn't give me the same powerful impression he did last year, even though he won easily in the end. We'll see how he goes on from this, maybe I'm wrong to have doubts.
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Caravaggio
so why drop him down to Gp3 level? I don’t think they could have picked an easier race given their form line with the War Front colt, Intelligence Cross. Khukri and Gorane have falsely elevated marks through their Power Stakes running where todays runner-up Psychedelic Funk was never a factor after stumbling at the start and being slowly away. It was not a G3 race today at all, just Listed class at best but they were 100 rated animals. I can’t help but think 8-15Fav despite his penalty must have been because he looked beforehand as he would come on a ton for today. It might look similar form with Psychedelic Funk and the Coventry Stakes but it was a commanding performance with minor effort after being off since last August. Blue Point and Harry Angel are both credible Commonwealth Cup contenders/opponents against him but Caravaggio will be much, much better with a faster pace and they won’t trouble him, and if they go the Stravinsky route of July Cup/Nunthorpe, kin hell what are we in for this summer. |
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yeah I was impressed with him today figgis but I totally get where you're coming from. Whereas last year he looked imposing, a three year old running against babies, now they've caught him up.
but it's not how they look it's how they run and this boy's got a rocket in his motor. Still think though that blue point might be able to give him a race at Royal Ascot. |
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LR, I agree that the ability is far more important than looks. I just wonder if he has the physicality to cope with his own speed and the rigours of racing in the long term, maybe he'll be ok.
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I'm still wanting to oppose Churchill in future against better opposition but can't bet against him in the Irish 2000. His only serious rival is Irishcorrespondent. He won his maiden impressively which gave him a great chance last time out and he duly followed up. In my view of that form he made big improvement again and you couldn't rule out him progressing further. That said, I would only want to back him on what he's done, not what he might do, and I have him still with 7lbs to find on Churchill's form of last year. I see the RPRs have him with 19lbs to find so there's a big variance of opinion on how close they are. There's also the possibility Churchill may have improved a few pounds since last year, his Guineas run was inconclusive about that.
Unless Churchill goes backwards from the Guineas he is by far the most likely winner today and the market has his price about right so I won't be opposing him. I hope he does win easily so there will be other opportunities to take him on at short prices. |