its also on oddscheckers day of the race market but not the anti post list

Gleneagles pre-Guineas form                                                                             OR      TS      RPR
05Oct14    Lon 2yG1 167K    7f    Gd    9-0    1d/9 btn Full Mast 9-0    9/4    J O'Brien    —            78    114
14Sep14    Cur 2yG1 148K    7f    GF    9-3    1/5 by 1½L Toscanini 9-3    1/3F    J O'Brien    113    83    116
24Aug14    Cur 2yG2 51K    7f    GF    9-3    1/5 by ¾L The Monarch 9-3    8/13F    J O'Brien    107    76    116
24Jul14    Leo 2yG3 33K    7f    GF    9-3    1/3 by ¾L Tombelaine 9-3    4/7F    J O'Brien    —    42    105
29Jun14    Cur 2yMd 11K    7f    GF    9-5    1/11 by 2½L Stevie's Wonder 9-2    EvensF    J O'Brien    —    66    92
06Jun14    Leo 2yMd 10K    7f    Gd    9-5    4/10 btn 3¼L Convergence 9-2    11/8F    C O'Donoghue    —    23    81

Churchills pre-Guineas form

DATE        DIST.    GNG.    WGT / HDGR    POS. FINISH DIST / WINNER or RUNNER-UP / WGT    SP    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
08Oct16    Nmk C12yG1 284K    7f    Gd    9-1    1/7 by 1¼L Lancaster Bomber 9-1    8/11F    R L Moore    —            100    121
11Sep16    Cur 2yG1 149K    7f    Y    9-3    1/7 by 4¼L Mehmas 9-3    4/5F    R L Moore                    111    104     120
21Aug16    Cur 2yG2 57K    7f    Y/Sft    9-3    1/4 by 2L Radio Silence 9-3    1/4F    J A Heffernan            109    87    111
21Jul16    Leo 2yG3 26K    7f    GF    9-3    1/6 by nk Alexios Komnenos 9-3    2/5F    R L Moore    —            76    106
18Jun16    Asc C12yL 45K    7f    GS    9-3    1/13 by ½L Isomer 9-3    8/11F    R L Moore    —                    91    100
22May16    Cur 2yMd 8K    6f    Sft    9-5    3/11 btn 2½L Van Der Decken 9-5    2/1F    R L Moore    —            34    79

Jack Bauer '24' 04 May 17 01:48 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,034 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
Since then Frankel, Dawn Approach and Gleneagles have all won.

so 5/16. abit rough and ready but that seems about right. when i see 100/30 ill say we are at the right price

Backed and traded Lancaster Bomber for a free bet. In addition backed Churchill win and Al Wukair and Barney Roy both each way to net a small profit.

Backed Top Score.

I'm going to disagree with you on this one Figgis, just about the value. The more I've considered the race, the more I think Churchill is an even money shot, not because he's exceptional but because his three apparent rivals all have big questions to answer. I'd lay him at evens but back at 6-4.

Howellsy, that's fair enough, but don't you think there also has to be at least some doubt about Churchill considering he hasn't run since last year?

Hard to say there's no doubt, but the percentage call for me is to assume he'll replicate the Dewhurst form with a few pounds more for the mile. I trust son of Galileo, as opposed to the American breds which have let the side down a few times. I can't see a logical reason for him to not train on, being by Galileo. It'll be interesting to see the betting close to the off.

*something or other

Bit of a drift!

Churchill had a lovely passage aided and abetted by stablemate Lancaster Bomber who ran above his form; Epsom Derby or Irish 2000G and the St James's Palace Stakes.

Churchill always looked to be travelling best, did it well enough and was a worthy winner. Not a bad time but I have it as the worst since Haafhd a few years ago, hence the relatively bunched finish. How much that was purely due to the early pace I don't know at this stage. Looking forward I'm still not convinced Churchill is an outstanding miler but as he is likely to get a pretty easy ride mopping up the Irish Guineas and/or the SJP probably facing pretty much the same opposition it will be difficult to oppose him in the near future. I'll probably have to wait till he meets his elders. Well done winners.

Dante next?

I doubt it now having won this race - there is no need - but could go straight to Epsom Derby if the Coolmore boys choose similar to Australia; then the St James's Palace Stakes (SJPS). If by passing the Epsom Derby the Irish 2000g is a near certainty, wuth the SJPS next.

If no stand-out candidate from Coolmore for the Epsom Derby Churchill's chance of running there will be enhanced; Coolmore fielded 5 in 2016, 3 in 2015 and 4 in 2014.

Lancaster Bomber ensured a decent pace today and left a space for Churchill on the inside soon after the false rail to cut-in at the 3f pole, and that helps greatly - Barney Roy and  Al Wukair did not have this assistance.

Yes I agree that Moore was better positioned given the way the race was run and kept it suitably simple. Possibly the second and third were a little disadvantaged but I thought Churchill had more natural easy speed and I'm not sure the others were disadvantaged enough to excuse being beaten a length. Much will depend on how each horse takes the race and develops from here and I don't have any firm opinion on that.

I'm surprised you wanted to lay Churchill figgis. Call it aftertiming although I did say on here that I thought the horse would win beforehand.

Just the horses looks, the fact that it was trained by the master of the 2000, his breeding, the fact that the jockey was so effusive about him, everything screamed 2000 guineas winner. I think the horse is a finder. I don't think it's deceptive and in fact he does just do enough. Anyone taking him on in future is foolhardy, imo.

I thought the horse would win beforehand

As I said before, the forum is split between the will win or should win punters and ones who think more about what chance they think the horse has and price it should be. Gun to my head Churchill was the most likely winner but not as short as a 6/4 shot. If Air Force Blue had won last year then his backers, of which there were many, would have said everyone who opposed him had overlooked the obvious. I rated Churchill nearer a 2/1 chance, maybe I was wrong, but 2/1 chances are expected to win 1 in every 3 opportunities so it's not exactly a shock when they win, even to their layers. Air Force Blue was a 4/5 shot last year, he was beaten so people would say afterwards that he was a poor bet, but 4/5 shots are expected to be beaten 4 out of every 9 times so that doesn't prove anything on its own.

Anyone taking him on in future is foolhardy, imo

As with all of my bets it will depend on his price at the time.

Well done backers.

The race couldn't have worked out better for him, and it was obvious after a furlong that Lancaster Bomber would tow him to the cut away at the 2f marker and then Ryan would cut to the rail and quicken up. Equally though you also have to be good enough to take advantage and Churchill clearly was.

I expressed reservations about the track for Al Wukair and Barney Roy and if they were to meet Churchill on a more conventional flat track (not likely to happen) I'd fancy Al Wukair to come out on top. The fact they gave up an obvious (odds on?) chance of winning the French version shows just how much more prestigious the English version is. Maybe Teresa May can use that in her Brexit negotiations.

Eminent may well have bounced having had a hard race in the Craven, and after all the talk about him wanting further they made the classic rookie mistake ofthey trying to ride him handy, but of course that just nullified his finishing effort which had previously been his calling card. He still wasn't beaten all that far and may have his day in something like the Eclipse.

I'll after-time this and say yes I was confident about Churchill, particularly because of Course form - but in fact not overly so, as the trials did throw up proper horses - did my proper punting in the Jockey Club Stakes and had a Churchill win, Lancaster e/w and RV forecast -

Going Forward though ..

Firstly) Either one / both of Barney Roy and Eminent can't have given their true running as they were asked to go again after minimal rest,

Secondly) My impression of Eminent is predictably that he's much more like a Derby horse, the way he ran through the line in his previous race, the way he was readily outpaced by Churchill

Thirdly) Barney Roy didn't handle the dip - which was the crucial factor in backing Churchill (if you doubted Eminent), for all that he looks v forward

Fourthly) The only horse to gain ground on Churchill was the lightly-built Al Wukair who has potentially the most of the others up his sleeve for the rest of the season

Finally) Churchill won snug. He took 2L out of Lancaster Bomber when asked to go on and from then he just idled, Have no doubts if something came to eyeball him he'd have found again.

Well Caravaggio won as his form entitled him to. I could see no improvement on last year, beating Psychedelic Funk the same margin he beat him in the Coventry. It was only a prep race though so you wouldn't expect him to do too much, and the fact he took a bit of time to pick up I don't see as anything to worry about. He appeared much more powerful than his opponents as a 2yo, galloping all over them, but this time I just wasn't anywhere near as impressed with him physically during the run. I don't know, maybe I'm being unduly negative about him as a 3yo but the doubts remain.