I'm with Graeme here, people are over analysing it as always.

Churchill was a champion last season and he'll be one this. People are comparing him to air force blue, but he ain't out of a sire who has a poor record with three year olds. he's by Galileo.

St Nicholas Abbey was another champion 2yo who was well backed but proved a flop in the race. Churchill is currently a 6/4 chance (minus commission), what price do his fanciers think he should be?

I wouldn't say NOTHING could beat him, but he deserves to be favourite.

Just hope Ryan doesn't have an off day. If Lester was on it then the mortgage would be going on it. I expect to see a colt that has filled out well over the winter and looks a million. What can beat it?

Can't have Eminent. Didn't travel great in the Craven but did well to stay on and win for an inexperienced horse. Should he be a 5/1 shot?. Not sure about that. I think he won't know what hit him when he sees Churchill galloping all over him.

I'm sitting on vouchers at 12/1 and 6/1, and I hope the Coolmore boys do get stuck in on race day; two reservations,...possible firm ground and lack of pace.

I always considered St Nicholas Abbey a Derby horse rather than a Guineas type and had the same opinion about Australia. They managed to land both with another Derby type in Camelot but failed with the other two.

Churchill is a miler or possible 10 furlong horse in my view and will love the strongly run mile in the Guineas and is very much like Gleneagles in that he is a workmanlike type who only does enough so it is therefore difficult to rate their ability accurately. The same arguments that Gleneagles form was not that good were made by some two years ago.

I don't think I've seen anyone on here say Churchill does not deserve to start fav, the arguments against him are that he doesn't deserve to be so short, or that he hasn't got a better chance than his price so isn't a bet. I take it those who think he's virtually past the post think he should be long odds on?

As often happens with these threads they get split into two camps, the will win/won't win camp and the everything has a price camp. I'd lay an even money shot if I thought it should be more like 2/1, it doesn't mean I think the horse can't win. It means I think it would win 1 in 3 instead of the 1 in 2 its price suggests.

LR, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win even though I don't rate him much better than the winners of the trials we've just seen. If he improves just a few pounds from last year it would put him ahead of them. Even if he's just stood still over the winter he could win, as it's possible the next three in the betting could disappoint next time (although I'm hoping at least one of them doesn't and can progress) as they all had fairly tough races. I still don't rate him such a short price though. I don't buy into the argument that he just does enough. The races where he appeared to just do enough (most of his races) were quite slowly run affairs, so he wasn't likely to win by a wide margin. The National Stakes was different as it was well run so we got to fully see what he was made of. He was made to race and really had to battle, the victory only became comfortable when Mehmas capitulated when his stamina ran out.

If the races were slowly run and he was unlikely to win by a wide margin, how can you be confident that your rating of his true ability is accurate

Because I'm not rating him on them, I'm rating him on the National Stakes, which I referred to.

Thanks to a 2011 Nick Mordin article here are a few 2yo champions that ran in the 2000 Guineas

1990 Machiavellian 2nd
1993 Zafonic 1st
1994 Grand Lodge 2nd
1995 Celtic Swing 2nd
1996 Alhaarth 4th
1997 Revoque 2nd
1998 Xaar 4th
1999 Mujahid 3rd
2001 Minardi 3rd
2006 George Washington 1st
2007 New Approach 2nd
2009 Mastercraftsman 5th
2010 St Nicholas Abbey 6th

I see, how much better did you rate him in the National Stakes compared to his other races?

I didn't put a proper rating on most of his races as I figured they weren't true reflections and he was obviously better than the bare results. I was a bit negative about his Chesham win as I thought he still should've been capable of a bit more if he was as good as they thought, although I did have him improving 12lbs on that when he was properly tested in the National Stakes.

TMB...Laddies and Sky*** are not paying out (yet) but I hope Churchill credits himself well here regardless; there is still the Epsom Derby and/or St James's Palace Stakes to consider post this race, I believe.

There are so many possible routes for Churchill post this race.

If Churchill wins handsomely, he could take in the Irish 2000G or straight to the Epsom Derby - no Dante; he could go for the Irish 2000G, bypass the Epsom Derby, and head straight to the St James's Palace Stakes.

If he is found wanting, and given an easy race here, he could take in the Dante, and if crediting himself well there, he could go for the Epsom Derby - the Irish 2000G and the St James's Palace would not be in his agenda, I think.

I'd like Churchill to win, with Lancaster Bomber 2nd - my forecast (here's hoping).

AIR FORCE BLUE FLIES HIGH AS EUROPEAN TWO-YEAR-OLD CLASSIFICATION FOR 2015 IS REVEALED / 19 JAN 16
"Air Force Blue, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has today been unveiled as the champion European two-year-old following his impressive win in the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes."
"It was the first time since Johannesburg in 2001 that any two-year-old has won three European Group 1 races, which marks Air Force Blue as a distinguished champion."
"Air Force Blue has much more the profile of a Guineas horse. In remembering Johannesburg’s three Group 1 wins one must bear in mind that he never won as a three-year-old, but there is every reason to think that Air Force Blue will measure up in the coming year.”

O/T
I think Lancaster Bomber who is rated 2nd best officially to Churchill (6/4) and finished 2nd in the Dewhurst (universally accepted as the best form) but is presently trading at 42 here - must be value, surely?

lewisham ranger
My bet was placed last week on Al Wukair.
As a race approaches you often get a feeling from all the comments, betting, and reports.
I agreed with you about Barney Roy.  He is the horse that has the confidence.

Sorry, Don't Forget Me was beaten in his trial, only Tirol won.

yes I thought that to hopefully just missed off ive not heard anything