In my opinion it would be nonsensical and commercially detrimental to run Churchill and Caravaggio in this race thus only one will run, I firmly believe. On the other hand should Caravaggio win at Deauville then a possibility Caravaggio will contest an 8f Gp 1 race at Royal Ascot, but unlikely these two exciting horses will meet given their present and probable future commercial values. As such the present price of Caravaggio for the 2000G is reflected in the betting market.

unclepuncle
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04 Apr 17 17:57 Joined: 16 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 4,468 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
On behalf of all of us will you promise to leave the forum if they both run at Newmarket.Laugh

seconded three times (myself and both my neighbours)

If Caravaggio is running in this race irrespective of the well-being of Churchill and/or in a different ownership the former's price would not be 8/1 - it would be a lot shorter, I firmly believe. And I'm more than hopeful that he'll stay 8f post the scratching of a trial prior to this race or the French equivalent.

Churchill has been progressively impressive throughout last season in all the trials eg beating Lancaster Bomber, Thunder Snow, Rivet, South Seas, etc; its present price reflects that, and unless one of the newcomers/late developers eg Swiss Storm, turns out to be a superstar his presence alone will be sufficient to secure another probable win for Coolmore and Galileo, I firmly believe.

I hope they both turn up for this race - two silver bullets instead of one for me - but that happening is akin to winning the Jackpot of the National Lottery, in my opinion, as it would be nonsensical and commercially detrimental.

As always horse racing is mainly about opinions, and I'm happy with my reading of these two horses regards this race.

You haven't answered my question.

if he wins evens or 6/4 is a steal

That has to be the best yet

unclepuncle

Cloth ears?

Madhu 04 Apr 17 20:13
unclepuncle

Cloth ears?Confused


?????

just on your conversation about the ground in regards caravaggio i personally think it maybe more in his favour with cut in the ground? i thought he devoured the soft at ascot that was all

He acted really well on the ground at Ascot but it's more of a question of whether the yard would choose to run him on such ground over 1m.

Caravaggio won the Phoenix Stakes on the 7th August and news came about his setback at the end of August. Harry you mean dirt sire as in he only ran on dirt rather than Scat Daddy is predominantly a dirt sire over turf?

Harry I do apologise as I certainly had no wish to come across as to "take someone to task".

I am learning about breeding by the day as I find it fascinating, plus you must remember when I stated Scat Daddy will never produce a 2000 Guineas winner directly after the Coventry you quite rightly slapped my wrist. If I wanted to debate you as a novice with no sense of oneupmanship concerning - Caravaggio breeding lines from the dam are from a dirt pedigree- I would sneakily play the card, Caravaggio has a double dose of Intentionally and The Axe, known  sire-lines with turf prowess in his female tail.

To be honest they knew pretty much straightaway of  the potential turf prowess of Scat Daddy’s offspring as his first top juveniles included Finale (2011 G3 Summer Stakes Turf 1m Woodbine) and our own Daddy Long Legs (2011 G2 Royal Lodge Stakes 1m). Also intermediate-distance turf horses emerged from Scat Daddy’s first crop with leading 2012 3-year-old turf filly MG1W Lady of Shamrock (Del Mar Oaks (9f), American Oaks, (10f).

Scat Daddy was as a shuttle stallion in Chile from 2009-2011 and his first crop Southern Hemisphere included Solaria, Champion 2yo Turf Filly in Chile in 2012-13 (Horse of the Year & Champion 3yo Turf Filly in Chile in 2013-14) (won from 6.5f to 12f) and El Bromista, Champion 2YO Turf Colt in Chile in 2012-13 (6.5f to 10f).

The same year his second North American crop included 3yo Frac Daddy, runner-up in 2013 G3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes.

(It so happened that from his 2012 trio of Derby winners on dirt form his first US crop, Handsome Mike (Pennsylvania Derby (G2) 9f) was GSP as a 5yo on the turf, third in 2014 G2 Del Mar Mile, and Daddy Nose Best (9f G3 Sunland Park Derby) won the 2014 G3 Colonel E. R. Bradley on turf at Fair Grounds as a 5yo.)

A_T - the industry would be in a bit of trouble if they didn't.

I think any generalisation suggesting American-bred two-year-old’s do not train on is nonsense really, and taking a broad brush with American-bred two-year-old’s and making an extrapolation between the recent European War Front’s and Scat Daddy offspring is meaningless too as far as Caravaggio is concerned.

Firstly, although Air Force Blue, Hit It A Bomb, and War Command appeared not to train on they could presently simply be high profile outliers in the thick of things that serve only momentarily to dent War Front's European reputation; Declaration Of War and several other War Front progeny have excelled as older horses. Declaration Of War and War Command were bred by War Front’s owner/breeder Joe Allen in years that War Front stood for just $12,500 and $10,000 respectively. Air Force Blue and Hit It A Bomb were conceived when his covering fee was increased from $15,000 to $60,000 in 2012 following the successes of The Factor. War Front’s stud fee (2017: $250,000) has since risen exponentially along with his quantity of quality mares. You only have to look at the Aidan O’Brien two-year-old’s listed in Horses in Training 2017 to see there is a flotilla (16) of exceptionally well-bred War Front’s (many x Galileo/ Sadler's Wells cross) on the way and you can easily assume there are more on the basis of Ballydoyle having Scat Daddy (2 listed) juveniles (Murillo, Sioux Nation) entered over the next week that do appear in the publication.

And to be “brutally” honest I find it difficult to understand how anyone could look fairly at the Scat Daddy European sample group, setting aside his offspring in North and South American, and deduce Caravaggio will not train on; No Nay Never was a brilliantly fast juvenile and high-class sprinter at three that raced on three surfaces (turf, dirt and polytrack) and in three countries (America, England and France), and is a fine advertisement for Scat Daddy juveniles maintaining their talent over the winter and flourishing at three. After the 2014 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Frankie Dettori said "They came so wide he didn't have time to fight back. The race went to plan and we just got robbed on the line".

Moreover, our knowledge of Scat Daddy's latest juvenile stars is incomplete. According to Wesley Ward, Acapulco’s convoluted path (reportedly at the time missing Royal Ascot engagements due to inadequate ground conditions) following a setback meant he never had a proper run with the filly ahead of her final start when beaten at Santa Anita but he is hopeful she still has plenty more to give.

"I really thought she'd win at Royal Ascot again last year as everything had gone so smoothly with her. She won her prep race and then stepped up to win a stakes race really easy and I was so confident. Then, when we get her over there she had an abscess on her foot and we spent the rest of the year trying to build it back up. With everyone from Coolmore being at the Breeders' Cup we tried to get her ready for a race that weekend but it was a bit of a rush. She ran well but was just a few breezes short. She was perfectly sound afterwards, though, and that's what pleased us so much. I said afterwards there was still plenty she could achieve. Obviously, when you have a date with Galileo you don't want to miss it but we all talked and by having Aidan train her she gets the both of both worlds as there's no better trainer. It would be a lot to ask of her to go and see Galileo and then come back and race for me so it's best she stays in Ireland. Coolmore have been brilliant to me, they really have, and while I'm sad to lose her, it's for the best. I had a chat with Aidan about her at the Breeders' Cup and I'm looking forward to seeing what she can do."

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/acapulco-to-enjoy-the-best-of-both-worlds-with-obrien-35340066.html

So Acapulco is set to have a little jiggy jiggy with Galileo this spring and will likely race in foal for Aidan O’Brien and has the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot as the chief target. Also Lady Aurelia, the more recent Queen Mary Stakes winner of the two and Europe's 2016 champion 2-year-old filly is heading to Keeneland for the Listed Giant's Causeway Stakes (5.5f turf) on April 15 before returning to the Royal Meeting, where similarly the King's Stand Stakes is the intended target.

Moving on, having looked up the American-bred participants in the Newmarket 2000 Guineas from last year 10 or so years it is quite revealing to discover almost all the 30 or so runners were either not up to the race standard and/or were not running over their optimum distance anyway.

Moreover, Henrythenavigator (2008) the last American-bred winner and predecessor King's Best (2000) may have been classified as being bred in the US but their sire Kingmambo raced in Europe on turf. It is the same with other past winners such as Pennekamp (95, Bering), Rodrigo de Triano (92, El Gran Senor), Mystiko (91, Secreto), Nashwan (89, Blushing Groom), Dancing Brave (86, Lyphard), and Shadeed (85, Nijinsky).

Zafonic (93,) by Gone West is by my reckoning the last 2000 Guineas winner sired by a true dirt performer and before that came El Gran Senor (84) and Lomond (83), both by Northern Dancer (also won the Summer Stakes on turf), and Known Fact (80) by In Reality in the early 1980’s.

Following on, I find it interesting that all of the aforementioned sires are known for the versatility of their offspring and coincidental in Caravaggio’s pedigree; his  sire line spanning five generations of G1 winning two-year-old’s traces back to Northern Dancer; as does Scat Daddy’s second dam, Likeable Style (GISW by Nijinsky) (also a G3SW over a mile on turf); he is inbred to Mr. Prospector: 3S X 5S (Gone West established his own branch of the Mr. Prospector male line), and Caravaggio’s grand dam comes from the Relaunce-In Reality- Intentionally sire line, a popular commercial sire line of the 1980s and 1990s free of Northern Dancer and Raise a Native blood.

Also coincidently in passing, Gone West happened to belong to the vintage foal crop of 1984 that included Alysheba, Bet Twice, Java Gold, Cryptoclearance, Lost Code, Afleet, Gulch, Polish Navy, and Demons Begone and comparably Scat Daddy; a leading contender (3rd Fav) for the 2007 Kentucky Derby before suffering a tendon tear during the running, in which Street Sense came from behind to defeat Hard Spun, with Curlin finishing third, with Any Given Saturday running unplaced, was part of a crop overflowing with class that also included the exceptional filly Rags To Riches.

Apart from the recent War Front’s I guess one might wish to use Jessie Harrington’s Distorted Humor colt, Pathfork (2013), and less so Ibn Khaldun (as from Dubai Destination/Kingmambo sire line) as examples of American-bred colts that were Classic-year blowouts but Ravens Pass by Elusive Quality, runner-up to Henrythenavigator (2008) or Lord Shanakil (2009, Speightstown) would cancel that resource.

There is a complicated arc between Europe and North America and the versatility of sires and their progeny on each side of the pond when looked at over time. John Berry’s Impressive USA Fightback In Europe In ’16 is an absorbing article on the exchange.
 
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/impressive-usa-fightback-in-europe-in-2016/

                                     American-bred participants

2016 Air Vice Marshal (War Front) Kentucky Connection (Include) Air Force Blue (War Front) Stormy Antarctic (Stormy Atlantic)
2015 Intilaaq (Dynaformer)
2014 War Command (War Front) Bookrunner (Tiznow)
2013 Cristoforo Colombo (Henrythenavigator) George Vancouver (Henrythenavigator)
2012 Fencing (Street Cry) Abtaal (Rock Hard Ten) Red Duke (Hard Spun)
2011 Happy Today (Gone West) Pathfork (Distorted Humor) Rerouted (Stormy Atlantic)
2010 Elusive Pimpernel (Elusive Quality) Red Jazz (Johannesburg) Al Zir (Medaglia d’Or Viscount Nelson (Giant’s Causeway) Elspeth’s Boy (Tiznow)
2009 Lord Shanakil (Speightstown)
2008 Henrythenavigator Winner (Kingmambo) Ravens Pass runner-up (Elusive Quality) Moynahan (Johannesburg) Plan (Storm Cat) Strike The Deal) (Van Nisterooy) Ibn Khaldun (Dubai Destination)
2007 US Ranger (Danzig) Diamond Tycoon (Johannesburg) Haatef (Danzig) Jo’Burg (Johannesburg)
2006 Frost Giant (Giant’s Causeway)

Apologises for any mistakes.

By my reckoning Caravaggio doesn't need to make any progress to win an average Guineas. If he does stay then O'Brien just needs to produce him at last year's level. The unknown is whether the horse has gone backwards. Whether Air Force Blue was good enough or not to win a Guineas, he didn't just not train on, he went backwards. O'Brien had originally planned to give Caravaggio a pipe opener at Dundalk, when normally he sends them straight to the Guineas without a run. Supposedly it was to see if he'd stay, but all they could possibly find out was if he stayed 7f or not. After they galloped him at Naas plans were changed, with O'Brien saying they were satisfied with what he showed. Personally I think it's more likely they were going to run him as they're not sure of his current level. The news after Naas was encouraging but a move in the market in the coming days will be a better pointer to where they think he is right now.

Well if they stick to that plan it has to be a huge negative for Caravaggio's future prospects as a 3yo. They know he was a very good 2yo. He will either stay a mile or he won't. If you've got a potential champion and you want him to be a miler you send him for the Guineas, you don't arse around sending him to France.

Aidan O'Brien: "At the moment we are looking at running Churchill at Newmarket and Caravaggio in France. That's Plan A, but things can always change."

2000 Guineas not really on my radar. I think Churchill will win convincingly. I missed all the prices. Only dangers is owners playing Carvaggio instead.

Harry, same here in that Caravaggio would have been my only play. Although if he's not in the same form I'm glad they're avoiding the race, rather than me taking a punt on him staying when he'd probably have little chance if they're not that happy with him. I'll just see what comes out of the trials. If nothing impresses I might just lay Churchill as there still could be a surprise, as there was last year and when Night of Thunder won. In my view Churchill needs to improve quite a few pounds just to reach their level.

Again I don’t really see the French Classic as less superior from

Maybe you don't but it's obvious from everything that's gone before that Coolmore target the Guineas with their better milers, as would most British/Irish yards.

I cannot imagine why they would want Aidan O’Brien to intimate Caravaggio will be joining Churchill and heading to the English Guineas at this stage of the game.

Why not?