ladblokes certainly think that even money now madness

National Defense has wintered well and will be entered for both the Prix Djebel (the traditional prep race for the Guineas) and the Prix de Fontainebleau (the traditional trial for the French Guineas). At the moment Criquette is leaning more towards the French Guineas.

In no way is this a rebuttal Jamesp because one can read one thing somewhere one day and see another slant on the same subject the next but this is a recent update from the RP Bloodstock (24th Jan 2017) concerning the likely participation of National Defense in the 2000 Guineas-

Head-Maarek gave us an update on National Defense, who brightened a bleak year on the track for her last year by winning the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day by nearly five lengths.

"He's done extremely well over the winter - he was a little light-ish but he is heavier now and is filling out and turning into a man," she said.

"We're looking at starting him in the Prix Djebel and then to the Guineas in Newmarket, although we'll also enter him in the Poulains. I'm inclined to stay in France with him for his first run. He strikes me as a real miler and I don't think he'll go further than that."

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/hot-sires-shine-on-frosty-route-des-etalons/2233744/latest/

Any news on Akihiro's target jamesp?

National Defense

“National Defense has done extremely well over the winter and worked on the grass for the first time [this year on Tuesday],” Head-Maarek said. “The going was terribly soft but that didn’t seem to be an issue for him and he went nicely. He looks really good at the moment–he has put on a lot of weight and has a shiny coat–but he does need some sun.” She added, “I plan to run him in the Prix Djebel over the straight seven furlongs at Maisons-Laffitte on Apr. 10, by which time I hope to have him at about 90%, leaving a little to work on. After that we will decide between the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.”  http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/national-defense-works-on-turf/ Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Right, Cheltenham is almost over and the Flat (proper) is starting in two weeks' time.

Churchill or Caravaggio for this race?

After Air Force Blue last year I couldn't touch Churchill with a barge pole at the prices.

On form he is the best but he was always workmanlike rather than scintillating and I'd like to think something might improve past him.
No idea what at this stage thoguh.

Carravagio is anyone's guess - if he does turn up then the market and jockey booking  will surely tell all.

Churchill won't be running in a trial

I have two horses for the three year old flat season.

Titus and Venice beach

I have come around to Caravaggio after watching the Coventry Stakes a number of times and researching his female line and Scat Daddy as a sire. The versatility of Scat Daddy’s progeny is fascinating; European speedsters, intermediate-distance North American dirt runners and South American classic distance runners on the turf. Caravaggio’s tail female has produced U.S. middle-distance turf standout Bien Bien and includes Princequillo, the source of Secretariat’s stamina. He is entered in the 7f Gladness Stakes (G3) at Naas on 9th April, a race Giant's Causeway won at the Curragh before coming second in both the 2000 Guineas and the Irish 2000 Guineas. Considering the liquidity in the AP markets these days I have manged to get a bit on at 16s on here by drip-feed.

Incidentally, a Scat Daddy graded stakes placed juvenile Conquest Farenheit (out of the Holy Bull mare Holy Smokie) is running this Sunday at Santa Anita in the Pasadena Stakes for 3-year-olds over a mile on turf.

I have some shillings at huge odds for a nice return on few.

Hopefully Al Wukair will emerge from the Prix de Fontainebleau as a legitimate classic candidate for Al Shaqab Racing and Andre Fabre to mount a cross-Channel raid.

Syphax appears like a babyish Ribchester-type and could end up as a live outsider for Godolphin and a different North Yorkshire stable if this becomes his target. Although he is a late foal (6 May) and he may be aimed at the Dante.

If a Golan/Makfi-type with only one start as a two-year-old enters the picture I can quite see it as being John Gosden’s Cracksman, or even stable companion Utmost.

I can also see Roger Varian’s Cape Byron running well in a Guineas trial.

Churchill straight to the Guineas, Caravaggio to stud. Just my guess.

If both fit and well I don't see why they wouldn't run both - Rock of Gibraltar beat Hawkwing all those years ago.

This is interesting sinceCaravaggio is bred on the Scat Daddy-Holy Bull cross.



Conquest Farenheit

Conquest Farenheit (c, 3, Scat Daddy–Holy Smokie, by Holy Bull) made it back-to-back stakes wins at Santa Anita, setting a strong pace and holding firm in the stretch to capture the Pasadena S. A five-length winner on debut Aug. 26 at Woodbine to earn ‘TDN Rising Star’ status, the bay was a good second in the GII Summer S. in his final start for the Mark Casse barn and was hammered down for $735,000 at the Keeneland November Conquest Stables dispersal. Finishing a disappointing third on the local dirt Feb. 2 in his first start for these connections, the bay responded when returned to grass by annexing the Baffle S. going down the hill here Feb. 20. Made the even-money chalk to double up in this Sunday feature, Conquest Farenheit was put on the front end by Norberto Arroyo, Jr. and was pressured through strong fractions of :22.94 and :45.59 by Cistron (The Factor). Disposing of that pursuer by the top of the lane, the favorite appeared ripe for the picking by previously unbeaten Taco (Gio Ponti) nearing the eighth pole, but had something in reserve and stayed on strongly to score by two lengths in 1:33.58.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/conquest-farenheit-all-the-way-in-pasadena/

Pasadena Stakes (Listed)Santa Anita Park - March 19, 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdNA3Hsn3_E

Cliffs of Moher

Cliffs of Moher is not among the 11 Ballydoyle colts in the 69 entries for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas. For some reason the Betfair exchange market has 70 selections listed- the 69 plus Cliffs of Moher. Not surprisingly the horse is still being matched at 55.

A quick Google elicits:-

Cliffs Of Moher (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) followed a similar programme, finishing fifth behind the subsequent Group 3 fourth Spanish Tenor (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) at Cork on Oct. 15. A fortnight later, over seven furlongs at Leopardstown, he made most of the running to beat stablemate Orderofthegarter (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) by 5 1/2 lengths.

Cliffs Of Moher is the first foal of Wave, whose dam Queen Cleopatra (Ire) was third in two Classics as well as being a full-sister to Henrythenavigator.

“He had a lovely run first time out in a Cork maiden and progressed significantly in his next run at Leopardstown, where he won his maiden very easily,” said O’Brien. “He will run in one of the Derby trials. He is another that has wintered well and we are looking forward to him starting off.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/bright-futures-promising-maiden-winners-in-ireland/

interesting aiden o'brien is prepping carravagio in a stakes race at dundalk over 7 furlongs...i can't remember him prepping a guineas horse in this way, i would of thought the greenham would of been a better option...we will see i suppose and he is likely to like the poly track... i still don't really get it with the guineas in mind judging by past years

Churchill is heading straight to the Newmarket 2000 Guineas, all being well, whereas Caravaggio will take in a 7f race at Dundalk next month prior to a decision about his participation in the same race.

Bit worrying if National Defense is a foal, even if he "loves galloping".

Caravaggio against his elders in the Gladness Stakes at Naas on 9th April? Very strange indeed,...maybe a more appropriate race will be chosen in his own age group next month, I'd imagine.

Always seemed an odd plan to run Caravaggio over 7f as a pointer to his prospects of getting the mile. Even if he won over 7f they would still be in the dark about the extra furlong, so a complete waste of time. It seems more likely O'Brien thought he may need a run but the gallop at Naas told him otherwise. Maybe the horse also appeared relaxed and amenable to restraint at Naas but that's just a guess. If they choose to avoid Newmarket with him I'd see it more as a negative for Caravaggio's current home form rather than a massive plus for Churchill's chances. I see Timeform have Caravaggio 3lbs higher than Churchill but I rated him 10lbs better on 2yo form.

i still rate that ascot performance one of the best performances i have seen from a juvenile in the coventry

I agree Harry, I rate it alongside George Washington's Phoenix win, which until now was O'Brien's best 2yo for me. I think he already has the ability to comfortably take an average Guineas, providing he hasn't gone backwards and stays the extra 2f, which none of us know yet.