We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,576
|
By:
Fair enough. I know in theory that to take the time to price up every single runner as exactly as you can will give you a more precise market. At least that's the theory, and it's the only way to go if you're a bookmaking laying the entire field. However, before bookies followed the market on here they had the balls and expertise to price a race up themselves, but for all their experience and expertise they'd still leave many a rick and also overprice some favourites. Personally I find I have better results pricing my most likely winner and those next to it than deliberating over each and every runner. This also leaves me more time to concentrate my efforts in other departments. By backing those I think have a stronger chance of winning I (hope to) reduce long losing streaks, therefore similar to the reason people back a bunch of outsiders. If you're any good at spotting value then you have to be giving some back by spreading your bets. Is it really possible to find value on half a dozen runners in most races? I'd say not usually unless you're backing them well in advance and risking non runners. As I said though, each to their own, I'm sure that style of betting suits some people more and works for them.
|
|
By:
*if you're a bookmaker
|
|
By:
geoff m
It may well have been put up earlier but anyone know which hoss galloped with Cracksman @ Breakfast with the stars? Cant't tell the difference between a walk and a gallop?  The groundsman could have fill in their divots at that pace. |
|
By:
How many runners are we expecting? More likely much nearer 12 than 20 imo. I'll go for 14
AOB with 7 left in, and with some doubts about CoM staying, I don't think he'll be running pacemakers, so maybe 4 or so of his won't run. |
|
By:
Be amazed if 6 were taken out from this point. Maybe 3 more to go leaving us with 17 would be my shout. Although whether Godolphin go with their whole string maybe not
|
|
By:
16, but probably just wishful thinking as I think that should be the absolute limit.
|
|
By:
I think 15 will run (O'brien -3, Gosden -2).
|
|
By:
Kincsem - which have you got dropping out?
|
|
By:
Wild guessing with nothing to support it.
Finn MacCool, The Anvil, Wings Of Eagles, Crowned Eagle, Pealer. Then again they might all be left in and then the lowest rated, Pealer and Diore Lia, are probably removed to fit the 18 horse limit (it is 18?) |
|
By:
20 is the limit i believe, Fin Mccool was on my list along with an eventual withdrawl of the Anvil, I could still see Rekindling being removed aswell. Diore Lia sounds a certainty from all the press coverage, was hoping possibly like yourself that AOB doesn't see the need to run WOE as well as i think a big number of runners vastly increases a possible hardluck story.
|
|
By:
A reason for keeping the field at the 18 max might be to increase the randomness.
They tend to come down Tattehham in twos, so you could have nine groups of two. If you get your best horse in the second group and your chief rival is back in the second last group (group 8) then your horse comes into the straight about (8-2) x 1.5 = 9 lengths ahead. And the horse at the back then has to wade through beaten horses falling back in the straight. Any move to go around beaten horses means you must go higher up the camber or lower down. Either move is bad. Go higher and you use energy going up a slope. Go lower and you end up on the rail among the weakening horses with more traffic problems, and you must go up camber again. |
|
By:
EPSOM TEMPORARY SAFETY FACTOR
Further to a report from the Clerk of the Course and the Inspector of Courses, the following temporary Safety Factor will apply for the meeting on April 26th only. The permanent Safety Factor is in brackets. Start Safety Factor 1m abt 114yds 16 (20) Probably 20 runners. Two stall machine each hold 10. |
|
By:
I think Finn McCool, Wings Of Eagles, Pealer and Benbatl would be withdrawn and possibly Rekindling with the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot in mind.
|
|
By:
20 ran in 2003, 19 ran in 2007.
2003 Kris Kin won, O'Brien ran 4 2007 Authorized won, O'Brien ran 8 |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Apart from obvious withdrawals, I think we also need to factor in the possibility of 1 or 2 coming out through injury/lameness as well.
If someone put a gun to my head today and said 'in 5 days time, 20 racehorses will line up for the Derby, will they all be fit and raring to go?', I'd definitely go for 'no' rather than 'yes' |
|
By:
can I just say also that the charity runner should not only be barred, but the owner is a complete hypocrite - he says it's for charity .. How much does last place pay ? How much did he spend to enter the runner ? .. Here's a thought - if you're interested in charity then quietly donate the entry, forfeits, decs fee (15k?) .. if you want a runner in the Derby then just say so but don't hide behind a great charity.
As for the jockey - silly girl - on a hiding to nothing. IF she interferes with a CoM / Cracksman / Godolphin runner, her career will be tarnished. Her comment "I won't be in anyone's way as much as they won't be in my way" is hardly a ringing endorsement of what we heard about the horse being dropped out the back, This is the most stupid waste of money (that a multi billion / millionaire will end earning, instead of the charity) |
|
By:
I did wonder whether a horse should only be allowed to enter if it has won a maiden race, at least then it would have some level of base ability, although we could all argue about how much exactly. Cheltenham GC brought in a rating floor to weed out these entries which really do not enhance the race much at all.
|
|
By:
only fin mcool and rekindled and the anvil ave question marks for me that leaves 17 theres always one hard luck story so I go 16
|
|
By:
Sorry ffs, I see no correlation between my post, you copied, and your addendum. Only lots of obvious 'ifs'. May I suggest you may have thought the trials may have been stronger with clear cut contenders with potentially solid Group form. When I suggest the possible outcome for a race I go on available form plus the possibility of ground conditions, trip and obviously, form. I cannot work on what has happened in previous years nor can I second guess AOB, I don't think even he can do that.
|
|
By:
Backed Enable after the Cheshire Oaks, posted on the Derby thread. Rhododendron has the more obvious form but she's no Minding, I have her Guineas form 11lbs lower. She didn't have a clear run at Newmarket but in my view it didn't cost her much ground in the end and certainly didn't cost her the race. The Oaks was always on her agenda but she was still seriously trained for the Guineas and I wouldn't bank on her improving on that form. My reading of Enabled's latest win doesn't leave her with much to find and I think she can improve again. Difficult to fancy the rest.
|
|
By:
Oops, wrong thread
 |
|
By:
Figgis
Don't worry. Almost everything is off topic.  |
|
By:
well this has taken a lot of coming round to and although it may seem like i have been using heroine with a potent mix of glue, this is my reading on this years derby...as always i'm a tad brutal so no offence on selections just how i see it and in all fairness plenty have told me they can't have mine, so get in the queue!!!
i see a few can't have what i have come up with and in all fairness i agree to an extent but this is no normal derby class wise and the usual type needed in my humble opinion appears not to be there, so this has just come down to a tight knit handicap and apart from cliffs of moher i see no horse capable of running to an acceptable standard and he himself has huge holes in him Cracksman started his career with a nice maiden win and in all fairness i thought it was an ok maiden, he and permian's race at epsom has been done to death but personally you couldn't rate it more than just ok form with the doggy rat bay of poets in third who just sat out of it before hanging, a usual party trick for him, he performed his same party trick in the dee stakes before lugging in behind the winner there, cracksman took an age to pick up the winner but maybe they are just 2 nice colts and in all fairness to cracksman if he had another run maybe we would raving about his chances but he hasn't however it was a very unsatisfactory affair imo but never the less a good starting point for cracksman...personally i don't believe permian handles an off track and he took 3 false steps around the 3 pole in that race, his form at bath also leads me to believe permian is a much better horse on a conventional track, he could of course of just improved massively from his first 2 runs of the season but it is a worry for permian... cracksman just doesn't inspire me at all and 4/1 is just horrible... i agree with another poster that he would of been better served to have run in the dante, he may just regret missing that extra experience, after all he ran once at 2 and i can't believe gosden took him to a conditions race so early season without the intention of getting more experience into him, he obviously likes to get 2 runs into them gosden as he proved with golden horn and jack hobbs so it has to be a negative he didn't get the extra run into this big colt...i thought his diner with the stars run was pointless and if i had to be brutal i thought he worked poorly but it was just a canter round after all...he may just prove me wrong but at 4/1 no thanks cliffs of moher is the one horse i have really struggled with and have gone through the ringer to not back him but the 7/1 just looked to tight to me before the dee stakes and after the dee stakes to have to take shorter just made me feel ill i have struggled with him in regards to him being a ceiling horse in regards to progression in his rating, its just a thing i have in my head about prominent runners, he made the running in his maiden from on the day a good draw imo and horses like him i struggle to upgrade much as they have shown me how good they are and he went and strut his stuff that day leaving no stone unturned in regards to handicapping him, unless like me you believe he is an aiden o'brien runner whose runners always seem to step forward for a run, he needs to again here and i think he can... if you believe how much he stepped forward from his first run to his second last season he has to rate far superior to these horses but just how much will he come on, i think he will come on at least 6lbs at least if the full treatment has no ill affects on the horse but i am stabbing in the dark in this regard, however if they thought he was just ready to go i trust there judgment i honestly thought at chester after getting his maiden win out the way they would try and at least settle him but once again he ran prominent(maybe the draw) but this looked intentional, he took an age to put the balding horse away, i didn't agree with all that he ran through the line either and he looked to be given the full treatment by moore 6 smacks at least and it certainly wasn't the education he gave the rat USAR when he trailed at chester... he is clearly a makeshift derby horse in my book and his breeding doesn't scream 1m4f but he is still the most interesting runner to go to post, the negatives about him sweating and fretting has to be another negative with the epsom circus on derby day but although he came on massively form wise from his gaff track first run at cork which is another thing that mystifies me in regards to how good he is...personally i think he is good in regards to this years middle distance 3 year olds but i would of liked to of seen him switch off in a race and come home well and this part of his education has been missed and if he races choke out here on the front end it could be curtains, one thing is for sure he will be close to the speed i think they now have no choice he has his chance but he is priced up similar to cracksman in regards to improvement from that first run back, with both horses having proven trainers whose horses improve for a run, although some have argued his maiden win is enough it isn't for me and although i have him as potentially the best horse, he should be at least a 13/2 chance in regards to what he has shown on the track, no doubt he will pizz up now but i will just have to watch him win and feel the pain emminent i have also struggled with, he was a drifter on the day of the guineas bar some late office money and i get the feeling the craven took a tad more out of him than they thought and maybe he wasn't pleasing them in the lead up to the race, he ran a flat race...i think you can forgive him that run and he has his chance here but the price is horrible if we are to believe that guineas run was all wrong, he is priced up on that run being all wrong...this will be his first run round a bend although he went to the breakfast and worked nicely i thought they didn't start breezing till they started up the straight, he has the ability to get involved but how much improvement is in him and he also has a mixed pedigree...i think he can go ok but he is very tight in the betting after the guineas run...he has been a difficult horse to discount but i just can't bring myself to back him anyway i like a few rags here but here is what i have come up with and i honestly believe he would of ran well in the 2000 guineas as well but maybe i have been on the needles, however in the context of this race i feel he is going to run a massive race... anyway figgis you asked me who i have top rated and i said i was embarrassed by the horse i had and after a few things i have read on here recently, maybe i shouldn't post it, anyway i have had a good bet on best solution to win the derby and i'll explain why i have come down on a horse on paper who is an exposed runner with 9 career starts best solution is a kodiac a kodiac to win the derby surely madness and i'd agree and saeed bin suroor thought the same clearly, seeing this sprint bred horse as a sprinter on breeding starting the horse off in a windsor maiden over 6 furlongs enough to say to me he didn't know what he had...the derby stats boffs will hate he has started off over 6 he then goes to goodwood where harry angel was withdrawn before the start... in my opinion he runs a decent time, the jockey was niggling a long way from home and he took an age to pick up, finally getting on top inside the last furlong and hit the line strong, surely up him in trip up after that but no off to turkey for another 6 furlong race a group 3...he dwells leaving the gate and is 6 lengths down at the furlong before staying on well to be beaten 2 3/4l at last some feed back!!! up in trip at newmarket for the 7f tattersalls stakes group 3...dwells again from the gate but settles well held up off of slow fractions imo the horse gets zero run in a sprint to the line and should of won by 2l but just gets no run and is just unlucky in just an average race but with some nice horses, he doesn't get to show he was the best horse that day finally the penny is dropping with the trainer and he's up to a mile on his fifth start, once again facing just steady fractions he races prominently this time and in all fairness gets a perfect trip but once challenged and looking in trouble a furlong down, he picks up nicely and hits the line strong again putting daylight between himself and the rest come the line and putting him down as a decent colt he goes to france on his final start for a group 1 over 1m2f along way from a 6f maiden at windsor saeed!!! anyway held up in rear he swoops through to lead 2f out before hanging and carrying his head awkwardly and getting mugged by the closers close home who all came up the centre of the track giving the horse no time to respond, i marked him up for this as thought he did plenty of running in the race, it may have been one run to many then the poor horse is whipped off to dubai for a dirt campaign when will it stop for the poor horse  and tails in 2 runs before coming back to lingfield proving he likes an off track after goodwood last year he has laso been good enough to run well at grade 1 conventional tracks, a nice mix now i may have over rated his lingfield win and his other runs but i just feel he has nothing to find in this glorified group 2 i'm no pedigree expert but you have to do a bit... his pedigree is difficult to fathom as the mother Al Andalyya a kingmambo out of a sadlers well mare explains slightly where his stamina starts, she was very average but where his class/stamina comes from her mother Kushnarenkovo...Kushnarenkovo is a daughter of a mare of henry cecils that some may know eva luna she was by alleged and this explains where this horses stamina is from anyway the negatives with him... he wouldn't want it to fast but can handle it and like others is he good enough??? others will tell me he isn't and in any normal average year he wouldn't be...my main worry is how fit was he after being in dubai and can he step forward again because he has too... i just don't feel the cards have been on the table since the start so he has been up against it but those other runs have installed pace and if he has the stamina he has to get in the mixer in a desperate race...i feel sick i have come down on him and it's probably a complete feck up but i have to play him there are some rags running with chances and if cliffs of moher, emminent and cracks man step up to a decent level i'm in trouble but i just have a sneeky feeling that they are no betting opportunity class wise at this time and this horse just has to step up another 5lbs to put it up all of them...i see capri has been well backed and he ran well in that saint cloud race, i can't fathom him in fact in all fairness this race is as brutal as it gets with a lot of average horses running, it really is the hardest derby i can remember good luck finding the solution!!! |
|
By:
|
|
By:
It's official folks.
The 2017 Epsom derby is now the most overanalysed race of all time  |
|
By:
In the paper today Gosden, Bin Suroor and Johnson talk honestly and openly about their horses and their chances. But where is O'Brien? Coolmore has always treated punters and the public with contempt and when they do have something to say it is usually filled with astonishing and over-hyped reports. My contempt for them knows no bounds. Just as their contempt for us.
|
|
By:
Gosden is a trainer and so are Bin Suroor and Johnson and as such can talk freely, openly and honestly about the merits of their charges. However, AOB, a genius of a trainer he is, is also governed by the Coolmore boys who run their racing empire as a business unlike Godolphin and the majority of the rest; AOB trains the horses but the Coolmore boys make the decisions on the big targets for their best horses eg Guineas, Derby, Arc, etc, and are very good at it.
It is never simple to combine business with skill-set, however, if gelling, usually lead to a near perfect formula for success as shown with Coolmore. |
|
By:
Your opinion of AOB differs greatly from mine !mp123. And just because the Coolmore boys, as you call them, want to treat us like mushrooms when it is not necessary, as proved by Gosden, Bin Suroor and Johnson, that doesn't mean we have to like it.
And if you think their actions are a template for near perfect success that's up to you. That is not how I see it. Not from a racing point of view anyway. And of course the first we hear of the shortening of Capri is when the bookmakers owned by Tabor dropped him to 9/1. You may like that but I don't. |
|
By:
Could WOE go to the French Derby? Was one of 6 left in at the 5 day stage today along with OOTG, Taj, Homesman, War Decree, and Whitecliffs. He looks to be the best of those left in
|
|
By:
Crowned Eagle is priced up as a non-stayer. If he goes to post he will be my choice.
|
|
By:
brigust, I'm not even implying what you are accusing me of eg "...template for near perfect success...the Coolmore boys want to treat us like mushroom...shortening of Capri when the bookmaker owned by Tabor."
The Coolmore boys did not listen to AOB about running Churchill in the Derby - this was purely a business decision; Capri had Group credentials but was artificially overpriced because of his below par performance in the Derrinstown on firm ground (1st encounter) and it was no surprised his price shortened after the recent showers at Epsom and the scratching of Yucatan against this year's mediocre looking Derby field. I think Wings of Eagles, if scratched here, is likely to go for the French equivalent this sunday - he is weak here. |
|
By:
My guess is that the non runners, if there are any, will come from those horses entered from the start. It's probably sensible to assume the horses supplemented will run so the non runners will come from the rest. I guess in JG's five that would mean Pealer and Crowned Eagle.
Imp123 I was not implying anything. You believe AOB is a genius and that they a near perfect formula for success, that's quite reasonable I just disagree. That's all. I am not privy to the decisions they make or the reasons why they make them but, from a horse racing point of view I believe horse racing would have greater benefit if the horses were trained by several different trainers. |
|
By:
You have JG talking in depth about Cracksman, Glencadam Gold and Khalidi while Pealer and Crowned Eagle could run as well. Bin Suroor has talked a lot about Benbatl, Best Solution and Dubai Thunder. Mark Johnson has talked in depth about Permain. Martin Meade has talked openly and in depth about Eminent. Sir Michael Stoute has been honest and open about his 2 non runners.
But what has AOB said about CoM, Capri, Venice Beach, Douglas MacArthur, Wings of Eagles etc? Nothing at all. And here we are 4 days from the race. It is unacceptable because they know on a daily basis what their plans are and what they think of their horses they just do not want to tell us. |
|
By:
..."horses trained by different trainer."
I totally agree with you on that, but how many trainer/s of AOB's age and longevity as a trainer have achieved what AOB has achieved despite resources eg Godolphin? None, and even now Godolphin have finally accepted this thus having more horses trained outside their two principal trainers; a bad trainer will make a good horse go slower, and a good trainer will not make a horse good faster, the comment of John Ferguson, the CEO of Godolphin. The trainer that irks me the most with misinfo bordering on subterfuge is Willie Mullins eg entering Douvan in the Ryanair Chase this year, and his constant upbeat soundbites about his charges eg Annie Power and Faugheen, despite their persistent missing racing engagements. |
|
By:
The thing is yes lots of these trainers are talking openly but some will be shown to have been totally talking out of their arse. I remember years ago before the King George John Dunlop saying his Derby winner Erhaab was fit and raring to go after his Eclipse defeat, yet apparently at the same time the word around the yard was they wouldn't back it with free money.
|
|
By:
I understand where you are coming from Imp123 with Mullins but apart from the very occasional bloomer I quite like trying to second guess where he runs his horses at Cheltenham. There are mostly fully exposed horses anyway and he is not normally shy of either running them or talking about them. He just tends to leave the final decisions until late. I find that reasonable considering the range of options available. That is not the case here. There is only one flipping race.
And on top of that where we know quite a bit about the Mullins horse we know almost nothing about AOB's. They race in Ireland often against their own stable companions where the stable jockey often picks or finds himself on the wrong one. WE don't know who is race fit, who will improve most etc etc. This is not true on the English trainers I mentioned. |
|
By:
I don't think we're going to see too many nons. Wings Of Eagles is also in the French Derby and has some Gallic blood floating around in him. He'd be a hard sell in the unlikely event he won our Derby and looked a mess at Chester so he could go to Chantilly instead. The rest run barring accidents in my humble. They're being jocked up like they're running too:
BENBATL - MUPRHY BEST SOLUTION - COSGRAVE CRACKSMAN - DETTORI CROWNED EAGLE - ATZENI DUBAI THUNDER - KIRBY EMINENT - CROWLEY GLENCADAM - FORTUNE PEALER - DOYLE PERMIAN - BUICK SALOUEN - BERRY DIORE LIA - MANGAN Only the Ballydoyles, Rekindling and Khalidi do not have a jockey on and you can't believe Khalidi isn't running. I'd say Rekindling, Wings Of Eagles and Finn McCool are the only possible absenties and two of them are more likely to run than not. |
|
By:
The bloke's a joke! Thommo tried to get him to suggest two from his seven but he only repeated the same horses again. All the other trianer's have their jockey's sorted but not him, apparently. The interview was clearly an attempt to tell us as little as possible and only what we already know.
|
|
By:
Mullins much worse than O'Brien imo. O'Brien just doesn't give much away. Mullins has mislead us so many times.
|