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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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Riding plans for AOB sound like they will be finalized on Thursday.
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I think it is more difficult for Mullins. He has more owners to please, national hunt horses are more prone to injury and often the horses run at festivals where there is a choice of possibilities. With AOB the next thing you know something has shortened dramatically in the betting. And you have no idea whether it is a red herring or a reality. Riding plans for everyone else have been finalised but not AOB, it's nonsense. Do you think if something went wrong with a horse they couldn't change jockeys?
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They are not going to gallop them at home two days before the race ffs. Their gallops would have been completed already.
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Dams
Benbatl out of Nahrain (118). . Nahrain won the 10f Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on good, and the 10f Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont on yielding. [quality/stamina] 2nd dam Bahr (119) was 2nd in the English Oaks. . Best Solution out of Al Andalyya (71), unplaced in 5 runs. 2nd dam Kushnarenkovo (100) won a 12f 3yo maiden at Tralee from 12 starts. . Capri out of Dialafara (19), last of 8 in 1 career run 10f. 2nd dam Diamilina (120) 4 wins from 4 incl 12f Group 2 Prix de Mallerret, and 2nd in 12f Group 1 Prix Veremille btn short neck. . Cliffs Of Moher out of Wave (76), 1 win from 4 runs in a 5f 2yo maiden at Dundalk AW. [sprinter?] 2nd dam Queen Cleopatra (112), 1 win from 12 starts in 8f Group 3 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. . Cracksman out of Rhadegunda (97) 3 wins from 9 incl 9f listed fillies race. 2nd dam St Radegund (81) 1 maiden 7f 3yo win from 2 starts. . Crowned Eagle out of Gull Wing (106) 2 wins from 15 starts incl 14f listed race Nottingham . 2nd dam Maycocks Bay (97) 2 wins from 17 incl 14f listed handicap York. . Diore Lia out of Cyclonic Storm (78), 3 wins from 22 (8/9f). 2nd dam Wheeler’s Wonder (47) 2 flat wins from 24. . Douglas Macarthur out of Alluring Park (102) 1 maiden 2yo win from 7 (6/7f). [sprinter?] 2nd dam Park Express won 10f Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, 10f Group 2 Nassau Stakes, 12f Group 3 Lancashire Oaks. . Dubai Thunder out of Gonbarda (114) 5 wins from 9 incl 1 x 11f Gr 3, 2 x 12f 3yo Gr 1. [quality/stamina] 2nd dam Gonfalon unraced. . Eminent out of You’ll Be Mine (105) 1 win from 10, well beaten at 12f. 2nd dam Quarter Moon (119) 1 win from 9, 2nd in English Oaks and Irish Oaks 1/2l and 1l. . Finn McCool out of Mystical Lady (101), 3 wins from 21 ran at 7/8f. 2nd dam Lady Icarus (unraced). . Glencadam Glory out of Lady Grace (108), 5 wins from 15 at 6/7/8f incl listed 6f. [sprinter?] 2nd dam Lady Taufan (65) 0 wins from 15 runs. . Khalidi out of Bezique (101) 3 wins form 6 at 7/8f incl listed Italian. 2nd dam Batik (86) 3 wins from 9 incl 12f HCap. . Pealer out of Praia (94) 2 x 2nd in 6 races. 2nd dam Prada (97) 3 wins from 8. . Permian out of Tessa Reef (96) 3 wins from 9 at 8/9f incl listed. 2nd dam Massaraat (114) 2 wins from 6 at 7/8f incl listed. . Rekindling out of Sitara (73) 1 win from 8, 12f class 5. [poor record] 2nd dam Souk (98) won 2 from 6 at 7f Hcap. . Salouen out of Gali Gal (75) 1 win from 4 at 10f AW. 2nd dam Asterita (106) won 1 from 15 raced at 12f. . The Anvil out of Brightest (70) 3 runs, 3rd at 10f. 2nd dam Weymss Bight (123) 5 wins from 9 incl 12f Irish Oaks. . Venice Beach out of Danedrop (unraced), dam of Danedream (128) winner of 12f prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. [quality offspring] 2nd dam Rose Bonbon (120) 1 win from 6 at 13f (3 places at 12f). . Wings Of Eagles out of Ysoldina (108) 1 win from 11 (8/10f). 2nd dam Rotina (101) 0 wins from 5, placed at 10.5f I'm always more interested in the dam herself than in what she produced or that her brother's, aunt's mother's daughter was a half-sister to to something that won a race. |
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What Aidan O'Brien wants to say.
 He goes there with little chance. After many attempts he struggled to win a bad race and the form of that hasn’t held up. We can not get him to exert himself on the gallops. I’m fitter than he is and I haven’t run since kindergarten sports day. I don’t think he’ll stay, and my 14 year old Labrador had more pace. He doesn’t go left handed and wants heavy ground. I think he’ll come on for the race and I’m hoping it will help him get a nice handicap mark. |
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I don't know why anyone is so bothered about what O'Brien announces or doesn't when they've stated they don't think any of the Irish horses are good enough to even place. If anyone should be concerned it ought to be people like me who have backed CoM. For instance if it turns out Moore is going to ride something else then I'd have to take that as a big negative about what CoM is showing them. If that happens I'll just take it on the chin, I backed ante post knowing the risks.
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It's easy to be critical of Coolmore when they wield so much power in the game at the moment, and I don't like everything they do. But compare their carefully planned tactics and hesitancy to commit until as late as possible with some of the absolutely piss poor (non) strategies of opposing yards. With the others you get "Oh I just leave it all to the jockey", or "If only we'd had a decent pace", when they had the opportunity to run a pacemaker to try to influence the running of the race instead of whining about bad luck. I know which side I'd rather be with.
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I am concerned for racing in general. Every decision I make does not necessarily have to be for my financial gain. This is a drum I have been banging for a long time and still nothing changes. If I criticise him and his team for the way they treat the public and I have a vested interest I am wrong, if I criticise him and his team for the way they treat the public and I don't have a vested interest I am wrong. It is abundantly clear to everyone they know almost everything they need to know but are deliberately not telling us.
They know how the horses have come on or not from their recent races. They will know whether or not they think they will stay. They will have an idea what sort of ground each would prefer. They will know if there have been any setbacks or if one or more of them have other targets. And I am certain they will know the jockeys. For goodness sake they will be travelling over on Thursday or Friday. If I had backed CoM I would like to know how he has been since his last race. He had a hold up before the Dee Stakes has he got over that fully? He is apparently a fast horse do they think he will stay in a strongly run race? He will probably have to improve a lot on the Dee Stakes form has he been showing that kind of improvement at home. What will they be doing with him between now and raceday? All questions AOB knows the answer to but refuses to let the public know. In this day and age that is unacceptable. It isn't alway easy to run a pacemaker when you have a yard filled with horses from different owners. And if it is a classic the supplementary fee to run a pacemaker can be prohibitive especially if your horse may not have a certain winning chance. |
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It isn't alway easy to run a pacemaker when you have a yard filled with horses from different owners
Unless it's a very small yard punching above their weight, which very rarely happens in this era of racing, then it is easy to run a pacemaker. |
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And as for "I just leave it to the jockey", I've never heard such garbage in my life, but hear it I do, a lot.
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To be a pacemaker the horse has to have the ability to front run. It is best if it has the stamina for the trip as well. It must be fit enough so that it doesn't come to any harm and preferably in the same ownership as the horse it is setting the pace for. And this is all assuming there is likely to be a shortage of pace in the race.
A trainer will discuss his horse's idiosyncrasies with a new jockey but if the jockey has been riding him at work at home they will have discussed him a lot. Then there will be no need, on the day, to discuss plans with the jockey. They will already have been decided. So when they say 'I will leave it to the jockey' that will mean they haven't gone over the point at some other time. And in detail. That is their job. I have stood in the parade ring and heard the trainer talking to our jockey about anything but the horse. And I have stood in the parade ring when the trainer has had to grab hold of a jockey, who hadn't ridden the horse before, to make sure he is listening to him. |
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*that will NOT mean they haven't gone over the point at some other time.
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To be a pacemaker the horse has to have the ability to front run. It is best if it has the stamina for the trip as well
As has been said before, when someone mentions a decent pace it gets taken to mean a very fast pace, this is not the case. To set up a race for a good overall time all that is needed is a reasonable early pace, just not a crawl. Most horses are capable of going at the pace required, if not they shouldn't be anywhere near a racecourse. If the pacemaker sets off at a very fast pace there is a good chance they'll be ignored anyway, which is something Coolmore have messed up with in years gone by. It also doesn't need to see the trip out. Then there will be no need, on the day, to discuss plans with the jockey I'm talking about riding tactics not any idiosyncrasies of the horse. The trainer has been asked what the riding tactics are and comes back with "Oh I never tell..... how to ride". Then what often follows is a race with no early pace and a jockey still fully insistent on adhering to his preconceived idea of holding the horse up 10 lengths behind everything else. Horse finishes fast and late and beaten a neck. Then the post race interview with the trainer "We just didn't get the pace we needed".  |
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As has been said before, when someone mentions a decent pace it gets taken to mean a very fast pace, this is not the case. To set up a race for a good overall time all that is needed is a reasonable early pace, just not a crawl.
The fastest time possible is achieved when the pace is evenly distributed throughout the race so that the total energy that a horse possesses is optimally consumed. If a horse goes off too fast it follow that the pace will not be evenly distributed and a less than efficient distribution of energy will occur, resulting in a slower final time than would be the case if evenly distributed. This is also the case if the early pace is too slow compared to the optimum even pace. In practical terms, I have calculated that if a horse travels at say 1 sec p.f slower than the optimum possible for that horse in the first half of the race the total maximum amount that it can recover in the second half is approx half of that gained i.e. 0.5 secs p.f . In a 12f race that would result in a 3 secs slower final time or plus 0.25 secs p.f across the whole race. The reverse is also true. If the horse travels at 0.5 secs pf faster than optimum in the first half then it will take 1 sec p;f longer in the second half resulting in a 3 sec longer final time. This calculation only holds good within certain parameters. Obviously if a horse only canters for the first half say taking 4 secs per furlong longer it will not necessarily be able to travel 2 secs faster per f because that would take it beyond its maximum top speed. But it could travel further. This is also a contributory factor in explaining why the times at Epsom are on average slower over 12f because of the energy deficit in the first 12f not being made up sufficiently in the latter half of the race. NB Most turf races are slow/ fast pace whilst dirt races in the states are fast/slow pace. |
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I suggested the horse required to be a pacemaker should have the ability to 'front run'. An attribute, not all horses have. Added to that a fast pace for a 70 rated horse may not in any way be a fast pace for an 110 rated horse. The idea is to get as far as possible at a pace required by the horse you are supposed to be setting the pace for. That may also include setting a slow pace in a race where none of the protagonists will necessarily want to lead.
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@Brigust there seems to be an assumption that when a trainer opens their mouth it is an accurate representation of the current state of affairs. Where as previously you were arguing that AO shouldn't be talking down Cracksman as he wouldn't know how to compare him and Golden horn. Not sure both can be true, if AOB or connections (as they probably know plenty) told us COM was the greatest horse ever how would that help things, surely you just watch them run interpret the form in whatever way you wish and place your bet accordingly. Let the trainer get on with training and consider his / her modus operandi in your betting strategy.
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Well there is employing a pacemaker with the intention of taking the other runners out of their comfort zone, but that's a different matter entirely and suggests a slight lack of confidence in your own runner. However if you're interested in setting a nice pace for your own horse to track so it can show its full ability it isn't at all difficult.
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If you are happy with that FA then what is the problem? I am the one not happy because I think, in this day, the top trainers should keep the racing public informed. Almost everyone else does, why not AOB. You may have to read between the lines sometimes but we are part of the equation and to ignore us is unacceptable.
I don't think running a pacemaker means you have a lack of confidence in your horse it just ensures the pace is ensured without the main horse having to do the dirty work. Frankel had two pacemakers, Rerouted and Bullet Train. One was suitable for the role and other clearly was not. I don't think it mean't Sir Henry lacked confidence in Frankel. Do you? |
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I don't think it mean't Sir Henry lacked confidence in Frankel. Do you?
It helps to avoid this sort of confusion if you read the actual words posted. Well there is employing a pacemaker with the intention of taking the other runners out of their comfort zone, but that's a different matter entirely |
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And the fact that BT, a 113 rated horse I think, was deemed good enough to make the pace for a horse rated 140 only goes to prove my point. As for Rerouted, he was never going to live with Frankel the way they chose to ride him in the Guineas. At Ascot he certainly had enough pace to lead them as he showed during the race, the trouble was M Hills, in my view, gave him a brainless ride.
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Seems I'm not the only one who thought so as these were the race comments
was in as a pacemaker for Frankel, but his jockey must have thought he was taking part in the King's Stand |
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This is also the case if the early pace is too slow compared to the optimum even pace
Sandown, how much would you estimate the early pace in the Guineas hindered the final time? It wasn't run at an optimal pace and the final time wasn't up to scratch but I still have it as reasonable so think it only made a difference of a few pounds. And how much would you say it impacted on Eminent in particular? My guess is it affected Churchill the most as he's the only who's proved he can perform a bit faster. |
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In fairness, as I've said above before - with AO'B - day-of-race punters who account for the vast majority don't care.
But to quote Churchill again, we are masters of the unspoken word, slaves to those we let slip, I don't see Jose Mourinho telling anyone who he wants to sign, or which players he will play. As for the interviews they have become comedy legend "I didn't see the incident" being the most egregious insult to our intelligence. I think it's quite clear that AO'B feels he has nothing to gain, nor the industry well-served, by his speaking out about his horses - probably because he doesn't want to mislead anyone. Jim Bolger made an honest mistake w New Approach and was killed for it. |
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Brigust,
All questions AOB knows the answer to but refuses to let the public know. In this day and age that is unacceptable. How do you know he knows ? .. maybe part of his mastery, his tradecraft, is that he'll wait until the day and that aspect of his training is taking risks that sometimes spectacularly backfire but in the long-run have him 70 European Group 1s. What's so different about this 'day and age' - do expect work reports on twitter ? Maybe something to consider is that other trainers let on like they know much more than they do - for them they are in a precarious position, and they are pumping their own reputations. Maybe, in fact, the only honest one is AO'B because he doesn't mislead, he doesn't have to. His job is the best in the world and rock solid. |
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they have a lot of articles on pacing, efficiency and how to read overall time given sectionals
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FFS maybe, as you seem to think 'it's not part of his, so called, mastery'. Well, maybe it's because his paymaster is a bookmaker? You don't know and neither do I. You may be happy with that, well, that's up to you. And no, I don't expect daily work reports I just want to be treated the same way the other trainers treat me.
Figgis, I seem to remember this started with you criticising trainers for not running a pacemaker. I was simply pointing out that running a pacemaker can also be fraught with problems. |
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Figgis
We're in the area of speculation here but I'll try. I calculate that in the first 5/6f they probably went about up to 2 secs slower than they could have say around 0.35 spf. In the final 2f they probably travelled at about 1 sec faster in spf so perhaps they could have finished about 1 sec or 6 length faster which would have resulted in a rating of around 116 on my figs instead of 104. Who benefitted and who didn't? Well, obviously the faster horses would have benefitted and that would have included Churchill and Barney Roy. From the video its possible to see that they drew away from Eminent being about 0.8 secs faster over the final 2f. The sectionals show that they quickened not that Eminent slowed.Looking at Eminent I would say that he will stay 10f no problem the final 2f probably.I think he has a decent chance of being in the money on Sat. In summary, it played to the strengths of the milers not to their detriment. Incidentally, I have upgraded the form slightly for Churchills subsequent Irish Gns win. |
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Thanks for the link ffs.
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In summary, it played to the strengths of the milers not to their detriment
Yes I know what you mean in that the speedier types were less disadvantaged in that respect, but I was meaning how do you think the result would've differed in any way if they'd gone a faster pace earlier? I know this is only speculation but for me Churchill would've probably won more convincingly, and I don't even rate him especially among Guineas winners. |
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maybe it's because his paymaster is a bookmaker
Nail hit on head. Clearly there is an attempt to confuse people by flooding races with entries and leaving them in until very late. I can't remember anyone else doing it quite like "the Outfit". Even fabulously rich men need their thrills and entry fees are a small price to pay. |
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Figgis
Yeh, Churchill still have won imo. He's pretty good. Pity he's not in the Derby - it would make it clear cut! |
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A_T, I wouldn't deny there is an element of lording it over the rest, they do it because they can. But don't you think it's also because they simply have more cards to play than anyone else, and these young horses can change so much in their work from one week to the next? A runner like Winter must've been showing up really well in the run up to the Guineas, hence the money. In fact most of these Coolmore related gambles are entirely down to the work on the gallops in my view, not because Tabor and others concerned are some sort of masters of the formbook.
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as anything happened to best solution no backers
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doesn't look good
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just the book adjusting, doesn't look anything more than that.
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in one motion somebody took all the lay side leaving nothing ?
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I think to suggest the Coolmore related gambles are down to work on the gallops is a statement of the bleeding obvious. Of course they need to know the pecking order etc and I have no problem with them selecting their best horses for the best races. All I ask is that we are treated in the same way as we are treated by the other trainers. That's all. It is not as if I am asking them for information they do not already have. And I am not asking them to do any more than any other trainer. Just treat us with consideration and a little respect. We are not the nonentities of this sport. I am not, repeat not asking them to list their horses in order of priority. That is their business. I'm sure we can resolve that one on our own.
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ffs
Some old wisdom also says it's a great grandam who can be the most influential Think of great Racehorses that flopped as Sires but made great Broodmare sires - there's a reason for that ! Careful readers of my posts here and elsewhere (different usernames) will remember I posted about my analysis of the six-generation pedigrees 159,000 horses with ratings. I believe (some don't) that the whole of the pedigree is important, even as far back as 12 to 15 generations. I identified 18 factors in each of those pedigrees and the number of occurrences of those in each, and summarised the data. A few of these factors boost racing ability much more than others. That work ended in January (after many years) and I have not yet started on two other parts that I think are important. Yes, ancestors are important. But a quick look at some of the dams in this Derby field would give me pause for thought about the chances of their colt. The best Derby winner imo Sea-Bird had a dam, Sicalade who afair didn't win and earned about £100, but her dam Marmelade was a full-sibling of 1000 Guineas winner Camaree. I think my full analysis of all the pedigrees here would run to at least an A4 page for each, or about 20 pages. I'm reading Give a Man a Horse by Dianne Haworth. It is about Sir Patrick Hogan and his super sire Sir Tristram. He bought the horse from France based on pedigree alone. He won 2 from 19 starts. Philip Payne-Galwey of the BBA visited Paris, looked at the horse and rejected him. Hogan asked him to makes a second trip to Paris and speak to him on the phone and describe the horse. His adviser didn't like the look of the horse, especially the back legs. When Hogan paraded the horse in New Zealand before his 20 investors there was silence. One of the buyers wouldn't send a mare to him for three years and sold back his $4,000 share for that amount. The starting stud fee was $1,200. After a few years the stallion was covering at $100,000 a time and later in life £200,00 a time. I don't believe in great sires, broodmare sires. I do things like compare all the foals by a sire with their dams, get the numbers for that sire and all other sires, and see who is super, and why. Often it isn't the sire who is super, or the dam, but the connections between their pedigrees. |