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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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TH I think the entry of Khalidi may represent the supposed low grade of the field. When the spoke to JG and Frankie after his win at Newmarket and Goodwood he certainly wasn't considered good enough to run in the Derby. Yet he has form lines that make him a serious contender.
He won the Predominate Stakes beating Raheen House easily whose form ties in with Rivet, Benbatl, Eminent, Yucatan, Capri, Douglas MacArthur, Orderofthegarter, CoM to name but a few. Similarly, Glencadam House has form with Best Solution. And if Dettori is right that Khalidi never turned up against Permian, backed up by his entry, that, in my opinion only confirms my belief that if, as perceived wisdom would expect, Cracksman has improved significantly from the Epsom race he could be an easy winner nxt Saturday. I know that is my reading of the form and the entries but it is one reason and, a pretty sound one I believe. |
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There is no longer value backing Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher (CoM) now given known info, excluding "optimism" of respective trainers, and the backing of Capri into 13 here (from 40), a stablemate of CoM does not inspire confidence for the latter, in my opinion.
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In 2014 there was a much publicised 'gamble' on Geoffrey Chaucer in the days leading up to the race. Turned out most of it was just each way money. GC finished last but it clearly had no bearing on Australia's chance of winning.
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A_T you'll have no problem finding the winner. If you discount Aidan for running 7, you'd have to do the same with godolphin and gosdens. That leaves you with not alot left, including a 1000-1 collection box filly.
Gosden's have different owners - Godolphin's come from different stables. But you're right I am discounting the Ballydoyle horse this year. |
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Churchill out, my pants are washed,clean and safe in my draw Brigust.
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Yes Sankara, didn't mean for the horse's head - just for race conditioning. I believe the trainer was keen to hit the Derby on a 3rd run but events conspired against them.
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And re Gosden's others, GG just needs to break level to improve 10lbs and CE is from a family that only just hit their straps in June of their 3yo season. I'm expecting him to leap forward and very happy with the jockey booking.
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Felt I was just thinking about dinner for goodness sake. It is Steak pir as well. I'm going swimming first so hopefully, I will be able to get that image out of my mind.
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How do you rate the two races on timefigures when the second came home much faster - which was more efficiently run ?
I don't generally differentiate much between two races run in a fast time just because one was run slower/faster and the other was faster/slower. Obviously if a race was run so slow early as to impact negatively on the final time then you have to believe the fast finishers can probably do better. Or if one was run extremely fast early and the winner benefited from the race falling apart around it then you'd have to be less enthusiastic about the winner in future. Neither was the case here. |
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yeah I understand that, CoM hit the gates hard and just bolted. the other was probably the more standard run from the eye, so in effect the CoM race would be the one to upgrade ! .. the finishing sectionals were slower than early, and that's an interesting question - is it harder to come home slower and a burn-out first the first half, or come home faster after a slow run race - I'd probably argue the former, from my own experience, there's nothing worse than having to carry yourself home when you've overdone it, as opposed to bringing up the tempo when running relatively slowly.
Interesting. It was a good lot faster overall, esp with conditions easing. Colm O'D alluded to it yday at the Curragh, that he was a very fast 2yo, and that mantle is being carried by some incredible peers of his this year ! |
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is it harder to come home slower and a burn-out first the first half, or come home faster after a slow run race
As long as it wasn't too fast or too slow early I don't think it matters much where the pace comes in the race, the overall effect will largely be the same. There's an argument that if the horse went too fast early then even though its performance is going to be affected it wouldn't have as hard a race as if it was able to run optimally. I'd say the only difference is there's more chance that a horse produced late has the potential to be better than the bare result, but that depends on the horse so I wouldn't want to overstate that. |
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It may well have been put up earlier but anyone know which hoss galloped with Cracksman @ Breakfast with the stars?
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It was Pealer, geoff.
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Pealer.
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Cheers. I know these mini gallops mean little but he seemed to make hard work of going past a tenderley handled Pealer.
Wide open race with the winner going to put up a performance 7lb plus in front of previous efforts finding the 1s that will minefield host of em. Probably get 5s or 11/2 the field on the day (morning show) |
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Sorry, Figgis' post wasn't showing on my screen for some reason. The forum is loading very slowly here.
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I agree geoff. Like you say it was only a shop window gallop and I'm sure if I'd backed Cracksman I wouldn't be writing him off just because of that, but for a gallop that was quite clearly set up to show Cracksman in a better light than his companion he did make heavy weather of it. Maybe it's the same excuse I'm using for CoM in the Dee Stakes, the leader didn't go fast enough
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I saw the Epsom 'gallop' which was just a view of the course and a trip in the horsebox. JG has always said this horse is laid back so to lighten him up on the track where he next runs would be daft. And for what reason? As Geoff M said 'these mini gallops mean little' and that is exactly right. Pealer was there as a companion not to test him. In my opinion of course.
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There's no doubt one horse was intended to 'win' the gallop and the other one wasn't. Cracksman was pushed out, the rider on Pealer never moved.
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Clockwatchers....can you put a number on Khalidi in the Cocked Hat please? Assuming it was a fair effort?
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Course record TH.
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Actually I'd go further than that, from the rider on Pealer's actions and the horse's head you can see he actually takes a slight pull and eases off as Cracksman is being pushed. As I said, may be entirely meaningless as far as the big race is concerned but it did little to substantiate the view the horse has come on. So all anyone has got is Gosden's word for that, and he didn't exactly sound bullish when you read what he actually said.
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True Brig, but that doesn't always equal a stonking time performance I'm lead to believe and as I'm sure you know
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We will have to wait and see how bullish JG needed to be, on Saturday. He may well be thinking that he has this in the bag and can hardly believe it. Who would have thought the trials would have been so unenlightening.
The Khalidi move could be because there is not a lot between the Gosden horses at home, that could be one train of thought. And another train of thought could be because they believe the form with Permian at Newmarket is not right, and if that is the case, as stated by Frankie after the Goodwood race, that puts him right in the mix. Excluding the horse who is supposedly well ahead of him, of course. Whichever way you look at it the price available on here is too big so I couldn't help myself. I don't think he can win it but there may be some money to be made. |
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True TH. I was doing the answering, not the asking.
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Headmaster, it was a course record but it's a trip that doesn't see a lot of class races and the ground was fast. That said, I have it as good as the Dante form and would say he has at least as good a chance as Permian, who hasn't raced as far yet. I have it as a 4lbs improvement on Khalidi's previous best which was in the Feilden. As Gosden said he didn't run to his best next time but he was trying to give Permian 3lbs so I don't think it was quite as bad as it might've looked. That's my take on him anyway.
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Thanks Fig, so if I may be so bold, how come we keep hearing about COM this and Cracksman that...if I was working to your figures I'd be making Khalidi a bet at 40+
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Here is Workforce in his last Arc gallop (against Dux Scholar) at Sandown (he finished 12th of 16 at Longchamp)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPbvBnyj0XU Here is Crackaz v Pealer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZmw-bHo4YM There appear to be similarities.... |
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From my reading of the market there is a distinct whiff of twitch about the front three. Wide open I tells ya...
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Headmaster, in recent years my lowest winning Derby figure is Sir Percy (I gave him a much higher figure when 2nd in the Guineas). For me, Permian and Khalidi need to improve 10lbs just to match that. There's no saying they can't do that but I see no obvious reason why any of them would improve as much as that. Cracksman needs to improve even more for me but I have to consider that he could be better than he's had the chance to show so far. In my estimation CoM has already performed much better than the others, not that I expect everyone to agree. If he's not as good as I think then I reckon the race is within winning reach of at least half a dozen runners.
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I was brought up (many moons ago unfortunately) to believe betting is all about price and probability Figs. We don't always back the horse we think is most likely to win, do we? We back the horse whose odds under-represent his chance of winning. I can't see your numbers but given it seems Khalidi is on a par with Permian and Permian is overpriced (forgive me if I've read you wrong) then surely you're having a nibble? I'll shut up now though as I'm in danger of leading the witness. For the record, at the time of writing, I'm green the field to various amounts apart from Cracksman (bad day at the office) Cliffs Of Moher (I'll get over it) and Eminent (will sort before post time)
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Kincsem I think we're going to need your draw stats again btw mate. Been no talk of it this year but with possibly 18-20 going to post it's going to play a part more than ever. Drawn 1 or 2 or 19, 20 I think we have a mountain to climb, no?
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Assume that we will have good ground again before the derby on Saturday, the Met office have the chance of rain the next 5 days as below 10% each day. Looks to be an average temperature of 20 degree's, with Thursday and Friday slightly warmer than the next two days. The going stick was down at 6.4 this morning.
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No owner would be daft enough or financially non-savvy to fork out £85k to supplement to run here when his trainer has the fav plus three others in the same race unless his horse has a decent chance of finishing at least 4th to recoup most of this expense. Also, no doubt his trainer, Gosden, would have done his best to dissuade him from doing so unless the horse has a decent chance of achieving this, and his horse Khalidi certainly has the form and stamina to do so, in my opinion.
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We don't always back the horse we think is most likely to win, do we?
Not always no, but I prefer to back the horse I think is most likely to win (or has a strong chance of winning) when I believe I'm getting value. I'm happy with the value I think I have on CoM so I'm not really looking for any elsewhere. I know backing more than one horse would give me a better chance of winning but in the long term I believe it means conceding some profit in exchange for the safety net of backing more winners. Obviously I have to consider the chance of the other runners I haven't backed in order to establish what I think is a fair price on my intended bet, but I don't want to spend too much thought looking for value on lots of runners with an outside chance of winning. I usually only back one runner in a race, occasionally two, but very rarely more than that. It all depends on what works for you and how you like to bet. Backing a few outsiders at big prices works for a lot of people but for me I think it would just dilute my efforts and profits and the main reason is it just doesn't really appeal to me anyway, but each to their own. |
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20 years ago when faced with 110-120% books I'd agree with that Figgis. At 100% it's outdated in my humble. Although each horse/race/price is its own entity, of course. Sometimes 1, sometimes 10, there should be no rules.
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Outlining his views on the quintet, Gosden, who has had two Derby winners from just 20 runners, plus ten more in the frame, said: "It's a pity Cracksman didn't get another run, but he goes there with two runs and two wins and he has been to Epsom twice, which helps. He'll stay well, so he's a legitimate 4-1 chance.
"Crowned Eagle comes off a nice win and will definitely appreciate the step up in trip. Pealer has gone very nicely with Cracksman twice, both at home and at Breakfast With The Stars and he'll stay well too. "Glencadam Glory has always had the pedigree of a proper mile and a half horse and has been better at the gate since Lingfield, while Khalidi's owner [Nizar Anwar] called on Sunday to say he would like to supplement. "Although I had been thinking of the King Edward VII, Khalidi is a grand horse who broke the track record, and he has taken his race well." |