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Horse Antepost
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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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Replies: 1,576
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Back up. Cheers.
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We can bet on the race but we don't know what was withdrawn.
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It's midday Kincsem, not 10
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Thanks.
I misread my European Pattern Races 2017 book. The 10 am is the declaration to run time on June 1st. I reached for the book, dropped it, it landed on the extension cable power button under my desk, and I had a PC power outage. Perhaps that is what happened to British Airways. |
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Bit of gossip doing the rounds that we might get more than 1 supplementary, which doesn't surprise me in the least.
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The one question mark over the 2000 Guineas is that I think Churchill, having his first run, is a lot better than the one and a half lengths he beat Lancaster Bomber.
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Brig, as the jolly's premier cheerleader, is it not a little off-putting that your trainer looks like he might run 5 in the race? I've seen bigger votes of confidence in a horse tbh...
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You have been missing too many lessons Headmaster. Not a good sign.
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Do expand old boy...
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What are the 5 horses he may run TH?
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Are you sure you are not confusing me with my arch enemy, Professor Moriarty?
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Be patient, Brigust...let's see if the Newmarket bush telegraph is right for once. It's about time it was, quite frankly
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What we do know is that 20 have stayed in (or been added in, in at least one case)
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When is the next declaration TH?
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Confirmation and supplementary window shut 35 mins ago...just waiting on Weatherbys etc to get the news out. Next stage is final decs on Thursday.
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This is fun...BF have removed some horses and left in 19, but we know 20 went through. No word from any media outlet on what's going on. Watching the BF market for the big reveal is pretty cr@p in my humble
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And the answer was...Khalidi
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Both Cracksman and COM are lightly raced, have top connections and look to be improvers but they are currently rated c7-8lb behind Permian and there are plausible pedigree doubts. Should they be around 4/1 or 5/1 co-favs? Do they represent good value?
I think that this year is one of the hardest to be definitive about that I have seen for a long long time If you don't rate CoM's Leopardstown win then it's difficult to make a case that he's a good price now. There were plausible excuses for the less than impressive Dee Stakes win but judging him on that alone you couldn't say it was a pointer to him being good enough to win a Derby. The only reason anyone would back him now is because a lack of seriously good opposition and the fact he's apparently the Coolmore no1. If you do rate his Leopardstown win as I do, and I know I'm far from alone on that, then he's still a value bet. An opportunity like this takes me back to the 80s and 90s which in my opinion was a golden period for time analysts, as it was possible to pick up on many back end 2yos who clocked fast times in ordinary races, and back them for Classics before it was obvious to everyone how good they were. They didn't all win of course |
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The entry of Khalidi, if that is correct, is good news. When they said Khalidi wasn't right when beaten by Permian I thought it could have been just talk but this action points to the fact that they may actually believe it. And if they believe Khalidi could beat Permian, as the betting that day and their disappointment afterwards suggested and that is added to the fact that they also implied Khalidi wasn't in the same class as Cracksman then his inclusion must be a pointer that Cracksman has progressed significantly since Epsom. I hope.
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Who do we think will go off favourite and at what price ?
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Bloody hell Brig, ever considered a career in PR? Let's imagine Gosden took the lot out and only relied on Cracksman, that would surely be good news and I'd get that. As it turns out he looks like running 5 and that's still good news?! What wasn't going to be good news?!?
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I would expect money to come for CoM if Coolmore rate him like I do. I'd expect that money to outweigh any public money for Cracksman. If money doesn't come for CoM then it wouldn't mean he can't win but I'd have to admit it wouldn't be an encouraging sign judging by the past.
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Figgis
I do have a good figure for COM on his first win and for a second run it would be at the top end of the range. If we were discussing his prospects at that time then he deserved his place on a Derby shortlist. But to be clear, the rating by itself did not shout Derby winner without at least normal improvement from 2 to 3. The form was franked strongly by Orderofthegarter (beaten 5.5l ) winning his maiden and then the Listed Leopardstown Gns trial for which he was given anRPR of 112. The question is, did he added something, anything, either positive or negative to that to that run with his Dee Stakes performance that enables me to upgrade (or downgrade) him further? To my eye he didn't show improvement at Chester which was disappointing but it was his first run of the year. To win even a below average Derby he has to improve for me by around 12 lb on his Leopardstown rating and around 20+ lb on that Chester run. Not out of the question but the market has that potential improvement factored into the price and I cannot agree that he represents a value bet at his current price. He isn't guaranteed to stay and I can't take his Leopardstown rating as my only basis for backing him as the form is 7 months old. As I have said, others have comparable claims. But, the market is already factoring in a similar, large degree of improvement for Cracksman and to a lesser degree with Eminent. Further down the list, the market has also factored in significant improvement for Dubai Thunder. Permian and Best Solution are being priced as though no improvement is to be expected which is on the harsh side. The same might be said for Venice Beach. At this stage I cannot offer any selection for a bet and it may be that for once I will let the race go. Perhaps last minute factors may change my mind. |
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Good to see some jockey bookings going early, some you'd expect others more interesting
Dettori on Cracksman Crowley on Eminent Buick on Permian Cosgrave retains the ride on Best Solution with Oisin Murphy on Benbatl and Adam Kirby on Dubai Thunder Fortune rides Glencadam Glory and Andrea Atzeni has been booked for Crowned Eagle, which catches the eye |
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To win even a below average Derby he has to improve for me by around 12 lb on his Leopardstown rating
This is where we disagree, as I have him already 4lbs ahead of USAR's rating when finishing 2nd in last year's Derby and 1lb ahead of the winner, Harzand. Admittedly my CoM rating is at a much shorter trip and I can't be sure he'll replicate that over 12f. I have actually given CoM a lower rating than would've happened if I'd used the same allowance for the whole card, which is how most people operate. I've allowed that the ground became slower before the Listed race. I saw somewhere that Timeform gave him the highest time figure in a maiden race for years, might've even been ever. I can't agree with that as Kingsman put up a much faster figure only a few years before and I'm sure there have been others. I suspect they've used one allowance which would increase his rating significantly. Where I may possibly have gone wrong is in underrating just how much the ground slowed between CoM's race and the Listed race. If it slowed more than I've allowed for then CoM would need to improve again even for a poor Derby. Until proved wrong I'm satisfied with what I've done and even the current price offers some value, imo. |
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*Kingman
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20 runners around epsom isn't something that i like as a punter. You could find the best horse in the race, and get blocked off. It might come down to the best jockeyship in the race, and not the best horse. As for Waldgeist being removed, that's poor play from all involved. Now we really know why he didn't attend breakfast.
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Figgis
How did you rate Sovereign Debt at leopardstown? |
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Sandown, I rated him a decent Listed winner. A few pounds lower than his best ratings when he was a younger horse. At the time I was sure it was an up to scratch performance but thought just possibly I'd gone a few pounds too high with him. However, I gained even more confidence in my rating when he won the Gp2 this year. Which obviously wasn't a true Gp2 performance but was as good as he put up at Leopardstown, in my view.
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7 left in from Ballydoyle which says to me they can't separate them - don't think they're going to win it this year
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Figgis
I've taken another look at Leopardstown and I must admit that perhaps I have underestimated the run. It all depends on how Sovereign Debt gets rated and the possible change in going allowance. Orderofthe garters subsequent form is strong evidence for upgrading the race but then everything else in the race that is down to 5th place holds it back from upgrading too much. A difficult race to rate but I can see where you are coming from. I still think that the Dee Stakes form, being more recent and over further, is a balancing factor. After all, it could be argued that COM might be a better miler? |
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A_T you'll have no problem finding the winner. If you discount Aidan for running 7, you'd have to do the same with godolphin and gosdens. That leaves you with not alot left, including a 1000-1 collection box filly.
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JB - they're on Weatherbys site...surprising they haven't filtered through anywhere else yet
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I still think that the Dee Stakes form, being more recent and over further, is a balancing factor.
Yes have to admit I would've liked to see (and was expecting to see) CoM endorse that rating in the Dee Stakes so was pretty concerned watching the race. Whether he was in need of the run or not I couldn't excuse it on that alone. I thought the only real excuse would be if the early pace was slow, couldn't really tell on first viewing. Admittedly when you're looking for an excuse there's a possibility you're going to be inclined to find what you're looking for, but no matter how I tried to see things the opposite way there's no way you could say that race was run truly. So for me there is a valid excuse. Of course it's possible that he's simply slower than I've reckoned. On viewing the race a few times what really struck me was even though CoM appeared to struggle to get past the leader, once he did he looked physically impressive, well in command and not like a horse who'd had a hard race in the slightest. Obviously that sort of thing is in the eye of the beholder. After all, it could be argued that COM might be a better miler? That is also a possibility. They could be just running him here taking a punt on the trip because they obviously have a better 3yo miler. I'm taking it on trust that they have some research which says he's a likely stayer, and in truth in most years it has to be a little bit of a guess that a horse will stay 12f, unless it's one of the few who's already raced over it. |
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My projected ratings, based on the most recent runs of all horses:
'116' Cracksman '116' Eminent 114 Cliffs of Moher 111 Permian 109 Khalidi 108 Best Solution 108 Douglas Macarthur 108 Capri 107 Venice Beach I have serious doubts about Cracksman and Eminent being at their best on the day. The former has missed a key trial and goes there light on experience and with stamina to prove. I do think he can win but everything has to go right, which, in a 20 runner race, is asking a lot. Eminent's Craven win was richly promising and has worked out very well but, with the benefit of hindsight, how much better would it have been to go for the Dante rather than the Guineas? Easy to say now, of course, but I just fear he'll be keen enough after being prominent in the Guineas. If he settles and stays I can see him going very close but for me those are big ifs. I think Cliffs of Moher is a very good price, as he looks uncomplicated, has an ideal profile, with 2 races at 2 and a 10f trial victory. The Dee is a fascinating race to review, with Max Zorin showing good tactical speed throughout, having won at Chester and run well at Epsom (so accustomed to speed tracks). COM settled ok despite coming from a far from ideal draw and being wide for a while. That's one of O'Brien's least celebrated skills - his horses are so rarely keen. There's a point about 2f from home when the leader injects some speed and COM reacts well to it. The side on camera reveals the pair pulled a few lengths clear of the rest. The fact that a couple finished close up at the end was due to the front pair slowing down after their earlier exertions. I think COM can be marked up a little, on his seasonal debut, having reeled in a clearly able front runner. I gave the race a 73 speed figure, which is as much as 12 lbs below the 85 I awarded to COM's second start, but that leaves him only 6 lbs to find to surpass the best of the others, apart from Eminent and Cracksman who I believe are also capable of 80+ times, as I gave Cracksman 79 on debut and Eminent 81 for the Craven. The speed figures are not factored in to my projected ratings but it's reassuring that they match. In terms of stamina, I understand why there might be doubts, but the damside has plenty of stamina in it, as has been described on here, so I can't see it being a problem. I think he should be clear favourite. It's true that COM has a very ordinary class rating for his trial, and that in a normal year you might not think that a Derby winning prep, but I can't see the others being good enough. Permian is tough and can repeat his Dante run, although I'd be amazed if he improved on it. I'd be disappointed if none of the 3 aforementioned can't beat him, but it's impossible not to like the horse and it wouldn't surprise me if he came second. Khalidi's late entry is a worry for Cracksman backers imo. He ran a good figure at Goodwood but the race fell apart and he has limited scope for improvement. Best SOlution was fully entitled to win the Lingfield race on his best form, and it helped that the race fell apart around him. The time was 0.3 seconds quicker than the fillies race, the winner of which has hardly been mentioned since, so the race told us nothing new about him, and he's not going to be good enough. Venice Beach is not progressing quickly enough for me, and the form of the Vase is clearly not good enough. Yes, you'd fancy him to stay the trip, and with doubts about some, he could place. The rest are either fully exposed or, like Dubai Thunder, unexposed and impossible to rate. None of them interest me. Cliffs of Moher is outstanding value at 4-1 for me, as I just can't see any serious doubts about his being good enough to run better than this opposition on the day. The Frankel pair complicate the situation as both seem capable of beating COM in theory, but in practice neither has quite the right profile and I think Gosden will rue swerving the Dante. |
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Salouen looks overpriced. Improves every time he steps up in trip, already has Group 1 form where he was staying on strongly despite being unsuited by the slow early pace, looks like getting the fast ground he needs, and ran a very solid seasonal debut despite needing the run. Needs to improve for both fitness and the step up in trip, but both look likely, and with massive doubts about all those above him in the market either on ability or stamina grounds (Cliffs of Moher looks the least shaky, but you have to completely overlook the Dee Stakes to back him and I'd be worried about the strong recent support for Capri), 66s will do for me.
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We've been waiting a very long time for a boilover in the Derby and this race looks as likely as any in recent memory to provide one. Very much agree with Salouen, just a shame he couldn't squeeze that second run in, and would throw all the Gosden rags into the mix too.
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I'm very pleased to see Khalidi has been supplemented (not expected) which reaffirms Gosden's assertion the real Khalidi might not have turned up against Permian in the Havana Gold Stakes which he started the 11/10 fav. Subsequently Khalidi showed the further he went the better he got when beating Fierce Impact and Raheen House with the latter, highly thought of by his trainer Meehan, who also finished infront of Enable (2nd fav in the English Oaks) when behind Shutter Speed (2/1 fav for the French Oaks), another inmate of Gosden.
Having been supplement at a cost of £85k and at a price of 40 here Khalidi is not to be missed, I reckon, considering Permian is only 13, and Khalidi started the 11/10 fav when they last met. |
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He's got plenty of experience HM, no point over-egging the pudding. Khalidi was impressive the other day, but the other rags look to have a huge amount to find.
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