We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,576
|
By:
I put €10 on Churchill at 150 just now.
I'm happy with that as he could run. |
|
By:
"Poor advertisement for Irish racing as racegoers vent fury"
That heading is on the Racing Post website but behind the paywall. What happened? |
|
By:
Ryan Moore on being asked if CoM will win the Derby "They all have to step up, and they will. Who knows? That's why we race next Saturday, but the winner will be a proper Group1 horse"
ffs 27 May 17 18:03 I think he thinks they have something decent up their sleeve, not downplaying what they are giving it. that's one heck of an inference seems like wishful thinking |
|
By:
Churchill is a proper Group 1 horse.
 |
|
By:
Stoute has withdrawn Mirage Dancer because his work wasn't worthy of running in the Derby so that must put a question mark over CoM considering it would be quite reasonable to assume they both had equal possibilities of improvement.
Where does it say CoM can't be much good? Instead of making up things as you go along to suit your own agenda why not embrace the fact that others are prepared to back up their views. If I had simply stated that I thought Cracksman could win by a wide margin you would have been all over me to explain my reasoning. As others have said you just keep moving the goalposts. You come up with one disjointed point out of context and then when that is answered you move on to another. It is no wonder this forum is threadbare. Your point about Crystal Ocean may have been answered today when Okool finished last in a handicap running off a rating of 83. Teddy Grimtorpe wasn't that sure about MD and the Derby when interviewed at Chester possibly leading to people thinking Stoute had one better. I don't know whether or not Stoute gallops MD and CO together but it is highly likely and could have been the reason he pulled Mirage Dancer. Do you think that reflects well on Cliffs of Moher? It is true Crystal Ocean finished just behind Permian but I have made it pretty clear that I was/am basing my views on Cracksman improving significantly on the Epsom form. I also made it quite clear, right from the start, that I was basing my views on all of the plus points. But at least they are positive well thought out views that are all in the public domain to be discussed. And with regard to my comment about what John Gosden said I actually went out to rescue that newspaper from the bin so that it would be an accurate quote. Irrespective of whether it agreed with me or not. I could easily just have ignored the request but I didn't. In actual fact the original quote, which I was quoting from memory, was made by John Gosden after he had withdrawn Cracksman from the Dante and not on Morning with the Stars day. I an pretty sure he did say something along the lines of what I quoted and added that he wished the Derby was now. I will try to find it. |
|
By:
Just thinking back to Generous because of the parallel that's been made between him and Eminent. Eminent finished 6th in his Guineas but was only beaten under 4 lengths, whereas Generous was a well beaten 4th in what most people agree was a very weak renewal. As has been said it was Generous' first start so even though Cole would've aimed to have him ready there's no doubt he came on a bundle afterwards. I'd also say that Generous had already showed a higher level of form than Eminent when winning the Dewhurst. Although at the time I didn't expect him to go on and win the Derby, and certainly not in the manner he did. I remember thinking he was actually under priced, but I read form a bit differently now so don't know what I'd make of him going into the race today.
Eminent's recent support appears largely due to people being impressed with how he went in that gallop the other day. It got me thinking back to Generous' price. Considering he was well beaten in the Guineas, his Dewhurst wasn't the best and he seemed pretty exposed he was quite well supported at 9/1. I seem to remember something about him on the gallops but can't recall if he did an exceptional gallop or was just going well in general. Anyone else remember? |
|
By:
Where does it say CoM can't be much good?
Stoute has withdrawn Mirage Dancer because his work wasn't worthy of running in the Derby so that must put a question mark over CoM considering it would be quite reasonable to assume they both had equal possibilities of improvement. Ok then, what question mark would Stoute's view of MD for the race put over CoM? |
|
By:
why not embrace the fact that others are prepared to back up their views
Brigust, why do you always talk as though you're a group, or speaking on behalf of others? It's only your posts that I'm accusing of being hypocritical. |
|
By:
It wasn't me that said you keep moving the goalposts Figgis OK.
If you don't think Stoute's, and Grimthorpe's views about Mirage Dancer and the Derby has no bearing on the other runners in the Chester race that's OK. My opinion is that it may well do. It's only an opinion. No-one has died. It's a horse race not a court of law. The John Gosden quote I referred to on the day after the Dante was as follows: 'He's in great form but I didn't want to get him involved in a bit of a battle 16 days out. I wish the Derby was tomorrow as he's in great form'. The 'improved out of all proportion' must have been made by a friend I was talking to about what he knew. I guess as a result of JGs comments being completely different from the ones he made before the Epsom race he must have commented that he must have improved out if all proportion. And although it doesn't appear to be a direct quote from JG his latest comment compared with those made before the Epsom race do seem to imply that the horse has actually improved out of all proportion. I hope I have cleared that up for anyone who may have lost sleep over it. |
|
By:
It wasn't me that said you keep moving the goalposts Figgis OK
No, it was someone who said he'd quit the forum if Found won the Arc  |
|
By:
The question of whether Epsom is a stiff 12f or not should be obvious to anyone who has ever tried to run uphill. The amount of energy needed for the first 4 furlongs, which rises more than 100 feet plus to the mile start, is made worse by jockeys wanting a good position not too far off the pace and close to the rail which is what Lester always tried to achieve.
Anyone who has ever run uphill fast knows just how much energy is used doing so . You will also know that if overdone you can not get make up the energy deficit just by running downhill for a while. The body takes far longer to recover which is why races run at Epsom over 12f take longer than on other tracks because unless the energy has been used efficiently then the horse will not have sufficient energy reserves to be able to cope with the rising straight and the camber. This year, the debate has been less about the pedigrees yet this year it should be. It is a year when all the horses have not achieved ratings as high as in previous years going into the race. Those horses which will relish a demanding 12f will be the ones who will fight out the finish.And they might well not be at the front of the market because most of the horses have question marks regarding their pedigrees. |
|
By:
Last year, Harzand relished 12f US Army Ranger didn't.The latter had won the Chester vase (12f)but "ran out of gas" at Epsom
I think that a couple of comments post race last year are revealing especially Angus Gold's quote about Massaat and 10f.And Weld 's comment about Harzand being late-maturing..stayer...also. : Harzand is a late-maturing horse and as often happens we say the staying three-year-olds are not as good as we hoped for and then lo and behold a good horse comes up and wins the Derby. Once they start improving, they keep improving and he is a typical late-maturing colt - Dermot Weld, trainer. Massaat certainly wouldn't have won at a mile and a quarter. He was gone as soon as he went for him and Paul said he thought he was in trouble even before that. He was keen early because we tried to get him ready for a Guineas but he had a lovely position. We worked him over a mile and a quarter the other day and it took two furlongs to pull him up. I would lay my life on the fact he stays a mile and a quarter but he didn't stay it today, so for whatever reason I don't think that was his running - Angus Gold, representing owner Hamdan Al Maktoum. |
|
By:
I have to admit I don't really know for sure about CoM staying 12f well enough to win. I thought they might've started him out in mile races this year which is why I didn't back him until I knew he was on the Derby route. I didn't have any serious misgivings about him staying further it's just with them keeping him to 7f last year and him making nearly all at Leopardstown I thought they might lean towards a mile. Now it could be the only reason they avoided the mile route is because they already have Churchill and CoM probably wouldn't be fast enough to win a top mile race, which is something I would agree on. Maybe they just knew he'd get 10f and are just taking a punt on him staying an extra 2f. Nevertheless, with the advances made on pedigrees in recent years by companies such as Equinome, these yards are privy to information that we aren't, so I'd take it on trust that more often than not they'll choose distance targets that the horses are likely to be capable of. Particularly if the step up in trip is chosen early in the horse's career.
|
|
By:
Figgis
At the end of his 3yr old career Generous got a TF rating of 139 so some improvement after his 2000 Gns run!And was assessed as the world's best. He went off at 11/1 in the Derby 5th fav. Obviously the horse improved dramatically both for fitness and for the step up to 12f.But was it foreseeable? I doubt it very much.I backed Toulon that year who had won the Chester Vase. Fortunately, I recovered losses in the St Leger. |
|
By:
It's debatable that USAR didn't stay. I backed him before he shortened into favouritism, not a big bet and it was more due to educated guesswork than any firm proof of how good he was. I thought and still think that he stayed, he just wasn't quite good enough. His Derby 2nd was better than his subsequent run over 10f but even though his form was never great it's fair to say the Derby seemed to take something out of him so it's impossible to say what his ideal trip was. He didn't look like a non stayer at Chester this year, although horses can sometimes gain stamina with age.
|
|
By:
venice beach must be one of the most certain stayers, I wonder if he'll grind them down in the final furlong.
|
|
By:
Figgis
COM is a Galileo so that's positive. But, his dam was Wave who only managed a 5f win from 4 starts. Her dam was miler. You can only be "hopeful" about COM getting 12f in June of his 3yr career. On the balance of probabilities I would have my doubts. His Dee stakes win doesn't help us very much.Venice Beach at least won at 12f but may not be fast enough. |
|
By:
I have no problem with your views regarding Epsom Sandown, but I do think, and I have discussed this many times and at many levels over the years, that a racecourse where up to seven of the last eight furlongs are run downhill must assist stamina deficient horses and the fact that horses are known to be more reluctant to let themselves down when going downhill, a theme often highlighted going into the dip at Newmarket where it is only a minor factor, will have an effect on the race times.
So I will have to agree to disagree with you on this issue. |
|
By:
Sandown, I remember having a few quid on Hector Protector, think he was always considered a doubtful stayer but I just couldn't back the others.
|
|
By:
I agree, venice beach probably fails on the class angle. Nothing visually about any of his wins screams derby winner. I guess the only thing his supporters have to cling to is who he's related to.
I really think this eminent could be a monster bet. cracksman doesn't travel well enough for me and I think he'll get found out. O'Brien and Godolphin's multiple darts rather suggest they don't have anything special. Eminent for the fairytale win  |
|
By:
where up to seven of the last eight furlongs are run downhill
4f are downhill (Tattenham hill) in point of fact. The last 3 are slightly on the rise/level. |
|
By:
his dam was Wave who only managed a 5f win from 4 starts
Yes but she did run close to winning over 7f. I wouldn't conclusively say she stayed the 7f but I don't think it's conclusive that she didn't. O'Brien brought her back to 5f then 6f so maybe he thought she was better at shorter but with her career cut short we'll never know. Her dam was miler Would you put more significance on that than the damsire index? |
|
By:
lewisham ranger
Although his trainer is convinced that Eminent will stay 12f 9at G1 level it has yet to be proven. He is by Frankel, whose stamina in his progeny has yet to be established, out of a miler dam by a miler (Kingmambo)- the only other foal she has had was a sprinter.So even Eminent is no certain stayer imo. maybe. maybe not. |
|
By:
If we are to believe horses are more reluctant to let themselves down when going downhill then we would have to come up with another explanation for why Epsom's 5f is the fastest in the country and horses regularly record quicker times there. Me, I'll stick with the regular explanation, because it's downhill
 |
|
By:
Figgis
The sire/grandsire indices are useful but they are flawed in as much as they taken across the whole range of progeny. For top G1 performance i prefer to look at the records. The dosage index helps but somewhat but there are plenty of anomalies. The only thing that seems really reliable is the genetics test from Equinome but its not available unless published by connections, assuming they have had the horse tested. Reading pedigrees is akin to a belief in astrology. Just look at humans. Even Einstein who had children by another near genius didn't produce more geniuses. |
|
By:
If we are to believe horses are more reluctant to let themselves down when going downhill then we would have to come up with another explanation for why Epsom's 5f is the fastest in the country and horses regularly record quicker times there. Me, I'll stick with the regular explanation, because it's downhill
And you would be right! Some horses are confident and manage downhill no problem. Heavy topped horses don't do too well which is why conventional wisdom has it that medium sized well balanced horses do better at Epsom.On soft ground its less of a problem as the ground slows them down. |
|
By:
We have had this discussion already. Wave clearly stayed 7 furlongs as a 2yo, in my view. Her dam was beaten a length and a half in the French Oaks over 10 furlongs staying on, and her dam was beaten less than 2 lengths in the Irish Oaks over 12 furlongs.
I would not be overly concerned about CoM's stamina, The horses that are guaranteed to stay going into the race are usually not good enough to win the Derby. |
|
By:
The dosage index helps but somewhat but there are plenty of anomalies
Yes I agree that dosage is heavily flawed. I'm no expert so maybe others will vouch for it. But I did read a few things on it years ago and bought the book but quickly the whole thing seemed nothing more than ballpark guesswork. Then when the results went tits up they just introduced another chef de race. All a bit snake oil for me. The only thing that seems really reliable is the genetics test from Equinome Yes this does sound like it has a more scientific basis and it seems like it gets results, although as an outsider I don't know much about it. |
|
By:
Wave managed a second over 7f in a Dundalk 8k maiden.
Wave E DIST. GNG. WGT / HDGR POS. FINISH DIST / WINNER or RUNNER-UP / WGT SP JOCKEY OR TS RPR 16Oct12 Cur Hc 8K 6f Hy 9-1 9/14 btn 13½L Srucahan 8-12 7/1 J O'Brien 76 9 41 28Oct11 Dun 2yMd 8K 5f St 9-0 1/14 by ½L Hong Kong Dancer 9-5 11/10F J O'Brien — 66 78 14Oct11 Dun 2yMd 8K 7f St 9-0 2/13 btn ¾L Stunned Silence 9-0 7/4J J O'Brien — 78 80 25Sep11 Cur 2yMd 10K 6f Sft 8-12 5d/24 btn 7¾L Nephrite 9-1 12/1 J A Heffernan — 51 67 Queen Cleopatra was placed 3rd in G1 at Chantilly over 10.5f DATE DIST. GNG. WGT / HDGR POS. FINISH DIST / WINNER or RUNNER-UP / WGT SP JOCKEY OR TS RPR 01Jul06 Cur G1 1m2f Gd 8-11 5/7 btn 8½L Alexander Goldrun 9-8 11/2 K Fallon 110 73 102 11Jun06 Cha 3yG1 315K 1m2½f Gd 9-0 3/16 btn 1½L Confidential Lady 9-0 7/1 K Fallon — 115 112 28May06 Cur 3yG1 1m Hy 9-0 3/15 btn 7½L Nightime 9-0 11/1 J A Heffernan 106 80 101 14May06 Leo 3yG3 1m Y 9-0 1/8 by ¾L Modeeroch 9-0 6/4F J A Heffernan 106 45 105 23Apr06 Lon 3yG3 28K 1m Gd 9-0 4/9 btn 1½L Daltaya 9-0 10/1 K Fallon — 88 106 09Apr06 Cur 3yL 7f Y/Sft 8-12 2/8 btn 4L Decado 9-1 11/2 K Fallon 101 97 98 22Oct05 Nby C12yL 14K 7f GS 8-8 5/9 btn 4½L Short Dance 8-8 8/1 C O'Donoghue — 54 88 15Oct05 Nmk C12yG2 41K 7f GS 8-9 9/14 btn 6¼L Speciosa 8-9 12/1 D Holland — 87 94 01Oct05 Nmk C42yMd 7K 6f Sft 8-11 5/12 btn 1L Choosy 8-11 5/4F K Fallon — 65 77 04Sep05 Cur 2yG3 6f Gd 8-11 4/7 btn 2½L Abigail Pett 8-11 16/1 J A Heffernan — 28 98 |
|
By:
CoM and Eminent are more likely to stay well enough to win than Cracksman, imo.
|
|
By:
Everyone is entitled to their opinion Jack.
I 'm away to bed. |
|
By:
Had a look back at my ratings for Queen Cleopatra. Admittedly that was hardly the best renewal of the Diane but I have it a bit better, or at the very worst on par, with her Irish Guineas trial win. It was a well run race too so I'd have to say she definitely stayed at least that far.
|
|
By:
Of course they are, I just meant that Com's pedigree has already been discussed before his Chester run when some were doubting his stamina because the dam only won over 5 furlongs despite the fact she comes from a family that are bred to stay at least 10 furlongs, unlike Churchill who comes from a family of sprinters.
|
|
By:
The rise at Epsom from the 12f start to the top of the hill is 134 feet.
While writing this I opened the book The Derby Stakes 1780-1997 by Michael Church. He has a diagram of the Derby Courses. The 12f start is 360 feet above sea level. The top of the hill is 494 feet above sea level. The finish is 410 feet above sea level. Two points that make the Epsom 12f course a tougher course is (1) the 134 foot rise up the hill from the 12f start (2) the overall rise from start to finish of 50 feet from the 12f start The fastest one furlong time for a horse is about 10.7 seconds or 42 mph. Coming down a steep hill horses will not exceed this maximum, and certainly not on a turn. Just as taking weight of a horse will allow it run faster, there is a limit to how fast it can run downhill. You can't make a horse run 60 mph by putting a three stone jockey on it.. You can't make a horse run 60 mph by running it down a steep hill. Horses will be slower going up a steep hill like they encounter at Epsom. Comparison of standard times at Epsom and The Curragh. Epsom: 5f 11.00s; 6f 11.19s; 7f 11.45s; .....................10f 12.40; 12f 12.85 Curragh: ..................6f 11.83s; 7f 11.93s; 8f 12.00s; .....................12f 12.54s; 16f 12.63s You can see that the 6f and 7f standard times at Epsom are much faster (by 0.64s/f and by 0.48s/f) The 12f course at Epsom is slower by 0.31 seconds a furlong. An interesting point is that the 16f course at The Curragh which runs for 4f to the start of the Irish Derby course and continues for the 12f Irish Derby course has a quicker average furlong time than the 12f Epsom Derby course (12.63 v 12.85) In simple terms horses can run at a faster average pace over a two mile course at The Curragh than the can run over a 12f course at Epsom. Another way of looking at it is to figure out the standard time for the first five furlongs of each course. Subtract the 7f standard time from the 12f standard time (leaving the standard time for the first five furlongs) [ok The Curragh 7f course doesn't run on the Derby course but the gradient is similar). Epsom: 154.5s - 80.3s = 74.2s for first five furlongs of Epsom Derby course Curragh: 150.5s - 83.5s = 67.0s for an approximation of the first five furlongs of the Irish Derby course It takes about 7.2 seconds longer to run the first five furlongs of the Epsom Derby course. |
|
By:
Great stuff kincsem.
|
|
By:
In a wide open derby the horse to back is BEST SOLUTION punters seem to dismiss leafy Lingfield's derby trial as a useless future derby winner but atleast you definitely know it will stay,(will probably win the st leger the further they go the further it wins) track not a problem (horses for courses) over priced (will never be this price again) looks like the best solution to me
|
|
By:
Sandown 27 May 17 23:03
lewisham ranger Although his trainer is convinced that Eminent will stay 12f 9at G1 level it has yet to be proven. He is by Frankel, whose stamina in his progeny has yet to be established, out of a miler dam by a miler (Kingmambo)- the only other foal she has had was a sprinter.So even Eminent is no certain stayer imo. maybe. maybe not. I'm not convinced he'll stay the trip as well as one or two others in a big field Derby on slowish ground, but there is plenty of evidence in his pedigree that he'll stay 10f very well and probably get 12f, especially on the dam's side. the Quarter Moon branch of the family has produce a lot of stayers (Kingmambo's often stay well enough) as have elements in the Frankel line. Usually in the Derby it pays to choose guaranteed stayers over questionable ones, but the other main hopes this year look even more suspect in terms of staying compared to Eminent. Full disclosure: I backed Eminent before the Guineas for the Derby, convinced his pedigree was more Derby profile than 2000 guineas. That said, Cliffs of Moher if staying could definitely be too good for him. Value-wise the 16/1 about Eminent after the Guineas was way too big considering the (lack of) quality in the Derby field this year. This is the hardest Derby to predict in a long time (I've backed 7 of the last 10 winnners, but admittedly am in the Eminent camp more on a process of elimination. There's a decent breakdown of his pedigree on youtube in this preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVI6GThWCyY at around the 40-minute mark Good luck |
|
By:
My short list is four: Best Solution; Capri; Douglas Macarthur; Permian
I've backed two: 95% of my stake on Permian, 5% on Capri. My record in picking Derby winners is poor, 4 in 25 years. But the odds were 12/1, 9/4*, 17/1, 16/1 (*the 9/4 was the second leg of an Oaks/Derby double that paid 15/1). Always back the big prices, they pay more. |
|
By:
laluche
that youtube video mentions Eminent ran the fastest Craven Stakes ever. What if doesn't mention was there was a tailwind in the Craven And the other fastest Craven Stakes horses, Toronado (max win dist 8f), Toormore (max win dist 8f), Adagio (max win dist 8f), Marju (max dist 12f, 2nd in Derby), Delegator (max win dist 8f), were not middle distance horses. Those other fast time Craven winners suggest that a fast Craven win is a sign of a pure miler. He mentions that Soul Stirring by Frankel won the Japanese Oaks over 12f as proof that Frankel horses stay. But her dam, Stacelita, ran 15 times at 1m 2f or further, and that might be a contributor to her ability to stay. And a Japanese 12f race run in 2m 24s isn't much of an indication of different horse by Frankel staying Epsom which has a standard time of 2m 34.5s, or 10.5 seconds more. |
|
By:
Kincsem
I agree with just about everything you said (especially with regards to Japanese racing. Btw, stacelita was a horse I followed closely and was best at 10f). I didn't provide that link as proof that he stayed - it was to show that there's more to his pedigree than might initially meet the eye. I also agree with your take on the Craven. It wasn't the time that impressed me, more the style he won it in, which suggested to me he's a 10f horse minimum. To the eye, he doesn't look like a miler to me, definitely not a speed miler; maybe a mile that places a big premium on stamina. As I mentioned earlier, I have doubts about his ability to stay a tough 12f. But there are signs that he might. And sometimes, Derby winners are more like 10f horses that just happen to stay... only sometimes. But this really does look like a poor Derby, so you've got to stretch to put forward a case for anything. The Guineas run wasn't a good sign for a Derby winner, but I think the excuses put forward are legitimate. It turned into a sprint, and I think the form is a lot better than anything else in the Derby has shown. Whatever wins is probably going to have to step forward by at least 10lbs (even in a poor Derby). There are reasons to think Eminent might be the one. |