We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
|
By:
and Kinscem
I like Capri and maybe Permian to finish in the first four, but it's hard to see either winning. |
|
By:
I couldn't be sure of Eminent's best distance. It is guesswork.
What I thought was that he looked more muscled than a middle distance horse. Again it is hard to tell until you see a bunch of them together and compare them. My bet is Permian, but he might not get beyond 10 furlongs. Churchill is still entered and they could run him so I've had a small bet at 100+ just in case. If Churchill is declared the odds might change a little. |
|
By:
We'll know more on Monday May 29th
Confirmation of entry by noon on ... May 29th £85,000 stake if entered by noon on ... May 29th Declarations to run by 10.00 a.m. on ... June 1st |
|
By:
This suggests Permian will get 12f.
On 18/10/16 as a 2yo he was 3rd beaten ¾ length in the 10f Zetland Stakes (Dewhurst day). The time of the race was 2m 2.89s (slow by 2.59s), the fastest time by 2.1 seconds for that race 1987-2016 (Wiki). The winner Coronet (filly getting 5 lbs) was 957 days old, the second Cunco 1001 days old, Permian 891 days old (first two 66 days and 110 days older). On 14th May 2017 Coronet was 3rd in the 10f Prix Saint-Alary (Group 1). "William Buick will take over from Franny Norton on Dante winner Permian in the Derby." He (Johnston) added: "Permian is sure to stay and sure to be better for the step up in trip." |
|
By:
I can't remember Galileo that ran in the Derby who we can say with any conviction lost because it didn't stay. Last year Moore asked a lot of USAR and to be honest it wasn't a great Derby. He hasn't won since so probably not all that good anyway.
|
|
By:
that should read "a Galileo"
|
|
By:
I believe AOB ran CoM in the Dee Stakes rather than the Chester Vase because he was not fully convinced he'd stay 12f unlike last year with his number 1 Derby hope US Army Ranger - CoM was also entered in the French Derby.
In the Dee Stakes he was badly drawn and not too clever away thus having to be rushed up on the outside to be with the pacesetters soon after the off; he also had 1st run on Bay Of Poets (BoP) who was 4/5 lengths behind and who had to come wide to challenge; BoP closed to within 2 lengths at the finish. However, it did not appear to me CoM was going away, if anything, the jockey on BoP accepted his fate once he knew he would not be winning, but could there have been a different result had the race been over 12f instead of 10f? I'd like to think so because I did not believe CoM was maintaining his advantage over BoP had it been over an extra two furlongs. |
|
By:
Yesterday's FA Cup Final was a 2 horse race. Chelsea were the form horse having won the league by a distance, with Arsenal way back in 5th. Chelsea had beaten the second best team in the league in the semi finals. They were 1/2 to win yesterday.
What happened? Chelsea didn't show up. Arsenal were the better team on the day (and I speak as a life long Chelsea supporter.) Whoever wins next Saturday may be the form horse or one of the market leaders. Or not. Its whoever shows up on the day, gets the run of the race, and runs faster than the rest, who wins. For me, a case can be made for or more accurately against, almost every one of the runners. I may have to play this race purely on a value strategy.Or not at all. |
|
By:
Every runner has a chance, other than the stupid charity entry who should never be allowed to run - I thought they had introduced a minimum rating requirement after something similar happened a few years ago?
I have gone through the field both on form and pedigree and really don't fancy any of them at the current prices. Been plenty of massive priced placed horses down the years (Terimon @ 500/1, Blue Judge and Blues Traveller @ 150/1, etc) but never any real massive priced winners - hasn't been a double figure price winner since High Rise (20/1) in 1998, though Dragon Dancer went mighty close @ 66/1. Hopefully Eminent or Cracksman can show the hoped for improvement and prove too classy, whether they truly stay 12f or not. |
|
By:
Nice one Kincsem. I remember the CoC telling us the fall from the top of the hill to the winning post was equivalent to roughly 4 two storey houses stacked on top of each other.
|
|
By:
could there have been a different result had the race been over 12f instead of 10f? I'd like to think so because I did not believe CoM was maintaining his advantage over BoP had it been over an extra two furlongs
Why would anyone who says they stand to make a profit if CoM wins (despite crabbing his chances on every earlier post) like to believe Bay of Poets could've turned the form around over an extra 2f  This poster's posts get more bizarre by the day. Unless of course it's so they can claim a victory either way. |
|
By:
Churchill is still entered and they could run him so I've had a small bet at 100+ just in case.
For me, when the true chance of something happening is big odds against I have trouble putting an accurate price on it. The same when the true chance is long odds on. We all know the chance of Churchill running and winning is not impossible but very slim, but could any of us say confidently whether it's really an 80/1 chance or 100/1+? I know I couldn't. My guess is 100/1+ probably is value but my own issue with such bets is even if they show a long term profit, I don't have the temperament to withstand the inevitable long losing runs that go hand in hand with those type of bets. There would also come a point where I wouldn't know if I was just experiencing an expected losing run or I'd lost the plot. You must have far more patience than me kincsem. |
|
By:
Figgis
I wish I had a formula for success. This year I think I haven't had a winner, in golf, football, horse racing. Last year I couldn't miss. Aftertiming a bit here but last year while waiting for Galileo Gold to run in the 2000 Guineas I had a bet on Profitable in an earlier race at 20/1 just for an interest. It won. Everything won. I'll just keep throwing darts, and accept that I prefer bigger prices, and must back losers most of the time. |
|
By:
I'll just keep throwing darts, and accept that I prefer bigger prices, and must back losers most of the time.
Yes you have to use whatever method you're most comfortable with. Have to say there's been many a time when, for instance, in tennis I've seen a 1/100 chance and thought it should be more like 1/33 but even though I believe it's a value lay I still don't want to place a bet that's only going to come off about 1 in 34 bets. Obviously it's different for a trader. Like I say I just don't have the temperament for it, but plenty of opportunities for those that do. |
|
By:
venice beach must be one of the most certain stayers, I wonder if he'll grind them down in the final furlong.
The Dante form has been talked up while the Chester Vase was talked down but I have the Dante win only 1lb higher than the Chester Vase win. There's even an argument that the Chester Vase form could be better as it was actually achieved over the longer trip. By my reckoning Venice Beach would need to improve about 11lbs just to match Sir Percy's winning performance but other O'Brien horses in the past have unexpectedly improved that much and more from their trials. Particularly ones that are guaranteed to relish the trip, they sometimes run to a new level when involved in a stronger pace than before. Treasure Beach was an example who ran in the same trial. I'd be surprised if VB improves enough to win a good Derby, but if CoM isn't as good as I think and it turns out Cracksman is no better than his form shown on the track then it's possible VB could win. I wouldn't be surprised if he at least performs better than the Dante winner. |
|
By:
Colm O'Donoghue after the 1000 being asked about the Derby, basically said CoM was a very fast 2yo, Permian is the one he'd like to be on, Eminent is coming out of the traditionally strongest trial, JG seems to think he has a good one.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
a more detailed explanation for those interested in the Einstein quote,
IQ is always Q+e , where the random error is e (and not heritable) two geniuses will have very high error terms, and even with a high heritable Q, the offspring of two geniuses where their respective IQ will behave as say 1) Q=140+e=30 2)Q=130+40 => Q= 135 + e (mean zero) |
|
By:
I fancy Venice Beach for the Leger. I expect him to run well at Epsom but maybe find something too good.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
In a wide open derby the horse to back is BEST SOLUTION punters seem to dismiss leafy Lingfield's derby trial as a useless future derby winner but atleast you definitely know it will stay,(will probably win the st leger the further they go the further it wins) track not a problem (horses for courses) over priced (will never be this price again) looks like the best solution to me
Excluding Eminent, who has only run over a mile, I have this as slightly the best winning performance of all the trials. Although the Epsom trial and Dee stakes were compromised by a slow pace so they could've produced something better. I think Best Solution would need to improve about 8lbs to match the weakest of recent Derby winners, so would need to improve a bit less than Venice Beach in my opinion, but after nine runs behind him already I have to be pretty negative about his chances of finding much more. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
also, Kodiac ??? vs Galileo, Teofilo, Frankel etc.. ??? plenty of stamina on the dam-side, but arguably one of the fastest producing Sires in Europe
|
|
By:
Kodiac Sire Stats:
Dist winners/runners % wins runs % 2nd 3rd Prize Money 5-6f 202/450 45 411 3263 13 393 384 £5,052,808 7-9f 113/320 35 198 1848 11 231 209 £2,779,703 10-11f 19/70 27 27 225 12 26 15 £298,791 12-13f 6/30 20 10 94 11 10 11 £79,539 14f+ 13/67 19 20 136 15 21 15 £103,464 |
|
By:
Kodiac runners to date from 12-13f by RPR,
Maybe Best Solution is just a complete anomaly, he is already based on his standing over the horses, but his ability to improve again over a stiffer test? Best Solution Kingmambo 1 1 100 £34,026 113 Danehill Kodiac Green Desert 1 4 25 £55,916 101 Elleval Pennekamp 0 1 0 £2,326 101 Apex King Rainbow Quest 0 1 0 £1,614 91 Midtech Star Marju 2 9 22 £10,048 91 All Talk N No Do Woodman 0 3 0 £1,396 86 Goodwood Zodiac Barathea 0 1 0 — 86 Hot Spice Shaamit 1 10 10 £4,150 85 Justice Grace Imperial Ballet 0 2 0 £361 83 Theos Lolly Alzao 1 4 25 £5,471 83 |
|
By:
In my opinion Best Solution beat nothing of potential in his Derby trial - Sir John Lavery (fav) the hyped horse finished last in the race. As such, I think this was the worst Derby trial, and I'd be extremely shocked and disappointed if he wins.
|
|
By:
Ffs, just to be clear the first quote isn't mine.
|
|
By:
Best Solution should be favourite , most solid credentials in terms of ticking the most boxes without presumption of huge improvement ( COM) or hype without substance ( Cracksman ) , seems to be a bit of snobbery about his undistinguished dirt form this spring but does anyone remember where Dr Devious ran in his last race before Epsom ?
|
|
By:
I remember Dr Devious I actually backed him at a good price. He did win the Dewhurst and was a decent horse before going to the Kentucky Derby.
I think suggesting Best Solution should be favourite is a bit hopeful but at least if you believe that there is a lot of money to be made. It is not very often I think a 12/1 shot should be favourite. |
|
By:
Waldgeist gave Best Solution a start and beat him easily last autumn. By Galileo out of a Monsun mare, he is bred for the job and is part owned by the lads at Coolmore. The Prix Greffulhe, his prep race, was run at a slow tempo and would not have suited him.
He is the value in the race at 20/1. I took 25s last week. |
|
By:
Is there going to be a suspension of the antepost market at 10 am (confirmation of entries)?
|
|
By:
The Epsom Clerk of the Course must be delighted with the 15 mm of rain.
Ground is now good to soft, and probably be good or good/firm for the Oaks and Derby |
|
By:
At least 8 if not 12 of the likely runners can be given some sort of chance based on some line of form or other this year but all have a pretty solid reason why they won't win.
Permian is the top rated horse has won the best trial in recent years but has had too many runs and been beaten by Cracksman. Should he be 11/1? Both Cracksman and COM are lightly raced, have top connections and look to be improvers but they are currently rated c7-8lb behind Permian and there are plausible pedigree doubts. Should they be around 4/1 or 5/1 co-favs? Do they represent good value? Eminent was beaten far in the 2000 Gns and looks to improve for the step up in trip but the pedigree is not cast iron and he may not have the requiste toe for the Derby.Is 7/1 a fair price? Best Solution won a Derby Trial and he may be the best of Godolphins in which case 11/1 could be value. But, he was beaten by Waldgeist as a 2yr old in a G1 (as waere a few others in the field) but Fabres's horse looks to be something of a stayer who may do better over further and may need soft ground. Nevertheless he uis trained by Fabre and at 20/1 he coiuld be EW value Venice Beach has at least proven himself over 12f but he may not be chosen by Moore. It wouldn't be the first time that AOB wins a G1 with a longer priced horse.Another EW chance at 16/1 AOB has others who might run in Capri,Douglas Macarthur, Wings of Eagles and Yucatan and as stated, it wouldn't be a surpise if at least one got in the mix. Godolphin have 2 others in Dubai Thunder and Benbatl who could run, the once raced maiden winner DT having considerable potential. Remember Lammtarra? One run and then boom! 20/1 could seem to be steal if he runs and wins. Benbatle ran Permian to under 1 length at York so wherever that horse finishes so might he. Is he a 25/1 chance? There are others who might show. Best of days? Crowned Eagle? Tamleek? I think that this year is one of the hardest to be definitive about that I have seen for a long long time. Relying on the market being right under looking for the winner under 7/1 may not be the comfort blanket you think it is. |
|
By:
Eminent WASN'T beaten far in the 2000 Gns
|
|
By:
Permian 7/2
Cliffs Of Moher 5/1 Cracksman 7/1 Eminent 10/1 Best Solution 10/1 Waldgeist 12/1 Venice Beach 14/1 Capri 10/1 Douglas Macarthur 14/1 Wings of Eagles 20/1 |
|
By:
Market suspended
Churchill the worry for me. |
|
By:
currently good to soft at Epsom
|
|
By:
Any ideas why the market is in suspenders? Should be open atm
|