Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,576
|
By:
best solution all the lays gone for the second time tonite make of it wat u will
|
|
By:
all looks gud again for best solution very strange movement though
|
|
By:
I'm looking at what each of the entries has beat in Group races that had placed in a Group race before they met.
Horse .......................Beat previous Group placed horses Benbatl.....................Larchmont Lad; War Decree; Rekindling; Syphax; Exemplar Best Solution............Frankuus; Capri; Douglas Macarthur; Taj Mahal; Prinz Hlodowig; D'bai; Rich Legacy; Capri..........................Legitimus; Douglas Macarthur; Taj Mahal; Prinz Hlodowig; Frankuus; D'bai; Rich Legacy; Cliffs Of Moher.........* none * Cracksman................* none * Crowned Eagle..........* none * Diore Lia....................* none * working my way through the field in alphabet order. Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman have not yet met and beat a horse who previously place in a Group race before they met.  (imo) |
|
By:
Horse..................................Beat previous Group placed horses
Douglas Macarthur..........Yucutan; Capri; Legitimus; Taj Mahal; Prinz Hlodowig; Frankuus; D'bai; Rich Legacy; Dubai Thunder..................* none * Eminent..............................Spirit Of Valor; Larchmont Lad; Law And Order; Rivet; War Decree; Finn McCool......................The Anvil; Glencadam Glory..............Frankuus; Khalidi...............................Salouen; Law And Order; Pealer..................................* none * Permian.............................Benbatl; Rekindling; Syphax; Exemplar; Rekindling.........................Exemplar; Douglas Macarthur; Yucutan; Capri; Legitimus; Salouen.............................Law And Order; Sir Dancealot; The Anvil; Whitecliffsofdover; The Golden Age; King Of Spades; The Anvil...........................Cunco; Lockheed; Sea Fox; Arcada; Douglas Macarthur; Venice Beach....................The Anvil; Cunco; Wings Of Eagles..............The Anvil; Cunco; D'bai; Rich Legacy; |
|
By:
Example:
30 Oct 2016 Criterium de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) Wings Of Eagles finished 9th; D'bai finished 11th 10 Sep 2016 D'bai finished 3rd in Champagne Stakes (Group 2) Doncaster 3rd D'bai Wings Of Eagles beat previous Group placed D'bai |
|
By:
Kincsem, i suppose the argument being that they have run three times and twice and have not had the opportunity. Why not include horses they beat which went on to win group or listed races. Your picture would look completely different then
|
|
By:
Kincsem by extension does that not mean:
The Anvil beat Douglas Macarthur he therefore beat Yucatan, Legitimus, Taj Mahal, Frankuus, D'Bai and Rich Legacy. Or Venice Beach who beat The Anvil and therefore beat Douglas Macarthur, Yucatan, Legitimus, Taj Mahal etc while Permian beat Benbatl, Rekindling, Syphax and Legitimus who beat Exemplar, Douglas Macarthur, Yucatan, Capri and Legitimus or Cracksman who beat Permian who beat Rekindling etc etc. Catch my drift? |
|
By:
All I ask is that we are treated in the same way as we are treated by the other trainers.
So that means offer meaningless upbeat reports on their runners going into the Derby. Not one trainer will be giving a downbeat report before the race, yet on average about 50% of runners in a Derby will run below their previous best form. Gosden has said Cracksman has come on for his seasonal appearance. Well if that's true even if he doesn't win he ought to be fighting out the places. If Cracksman disappoints will the information he's provided be any better than O'Brien's lack of information? Not in my book. I believe the racing authorities should make it obligatory for trainers to do interviews, but that's purely for good promotion of the sport. TV channels need this cooperation and when people are first getting into the game it helps to know the characters involved. As for it being much of a help to experienced punters, I just don't see. In around 30 years of taking betting seriously I can only think of three occasions where trainer/jockey statements made a positive impact on my betting. |
|
By:
Jockey update:
BENBATL - MUPRHY BEST SOLUTION - COSGRAVE CRACKSMAN - DETTORI CROWNED EAGLE - ATZENI DUBAI THUNDER - KIRBY EMINENT - CROWLEY GLENCADAM - DOYLE (For Fortune) KHALIDI - SMULLEN PEALER - DE SOUSA (for Doyle) PERMIAN - BUICK SALOUEN - BERRY DIORE LIA - MANGAN |
|
By:
Figgis please don't confuse me with someone who cares about your betting, I don't. This isn't just about you. If you can understand that concept?
Coolmore have for years treated the racing and betting public with complete disregard. They run their horses in the same way. To me they are anathema. You may think the other trainers offer meaningless reports but as I have already said this is not just about you. Others may find the reports interesting and an update on how things are going. |
|
By:
This isn't just about you
No, obviously it's just about you. Others may find the reports interesting and an update on how things are going So you're speaking up on behalf of others again? Must be, as I don't see anyone else banging on about it  |
|
By:
Class, speed and stamina - that's what we want in a potential Derby winner, and imo if its not obvious that these attributes are there within 3 generations where parents(50% contribution each) and grand parents (25% each) and great grandparents (12.5%)then we're struggling really to identify influential ancestors.
In recent years, most Derby winners have a Derby winner or a sire of a Derby winner within 3 generations. there are exceptions, of course,(Workforce in 2010, Teenoso in 1983). In recent years, the Saddlers Wells line and now a SW son Galileo, have been most dominant. Looking at this year's field,those who don't meet this criterion are the Dubawi's, Dubaai Thunder Thunder and Benbatle whilst Salouen (Canford cliffs) Pealer (Campanolgist) are also non-qualifiers. This doesn't take us very far so a look at the dam's family can help.The top 3 in the betting are either by Gallieo directly (CM) or indirectly (Frankel) so should have the necessary class. Cracksman Fourth foal; half-brother to winners Fantastic Moon (7f 2yo; inc Group 3; RPR 106) and Strong Force (1m2f AW; 92); dam 7.5f-1m winner (inc Listed; 97), out of 7f winning daughter of 1,000 Guineas winner On The House COM First foal; dam 5f AW 2yo winner (RPR 80), closely related to Australian 1m4f/1m5f Gr 3 winner Francis Of Assisi and 8.4f Listed winner Look At Me out of 1m Group 3 winner/French Oaks third sister to top miler Henrythenavigator Eminent 50,000gns Y; second foal; half-brother to 6f winner As Good As Gold (RPR 86); dam 7f 2yo winner/Fillies'Mile third (104), half-sister to 1m2f Gr 1 winner Diamondsandrubies out of 7f Moyglare Stud winner/Irish 1,000, Oaks and Irish Oaks second Objectively speaking, I have to say that Cracksman looks the weakest of the 3 as far as stamina is concerned.Whilst Frankel will provide class, his stamina was unproven beyond 10f himself but he has sired a 12f G1 winner in Japan.(Soul Stirring but note- the grand sire here was Monsun a noted influence for stamina). On the dam side, Cracksman looks light on stamina influences. The fact that he won over 10f at Epsom in a slowly run race is not strong supporting evidence that he will get 12f in a strongly run race at the track. Meanwhile, COM is by Galileio, a strong influence for stamina himself. COM's family does have a stamina in it albeit Wave was a sprinter herself.COM's win at Chester was faster run than cracksman's Epsom win, so on balance there is a slightly better case for staying 12f, but not a very strong case it haas to be said. Eminenthas perhaps the strongest case for staying having a granddam in Quarter Moon who was classic placed over 12f. His run in the Gns and in the Craven strongly suggested that he will stay at least 10f and probably further. In fact, he might be closest to my ideal Derby winning profile of a horse bred for 12f but with the speed for a mile in group class. |
|
By:
Asked about Capri, well-backed recently, he said: "I'm happy with Capri and we've been happy with Cliffs Of Moher since he ran.
"He was very green the first time he ran and he is not a horse with much experience, so we were lucky to get the one run into him and that was a run we were happy with at Chester. "You couldn't be sure he'd get a mile and a half but going to Chester we weren't even sure about the mile and a quarter, yet the way he was going to the line you'd think there is a good chance that he might stay. "The day he won his maiden he was all speed," the trainer added Interesting that when asked about Capri O'Brien steered the answer more to CoM, although not too surprising considering he looks like their main hope. Anyone really any the wiser than before though? Anyone going to change their betting plans because of this statement? Or has anyone had a bet because of what any of the other trainers have said? Nah, thought not. |
|
By:
Figgis
It is easy to draw the inference though that the requisite stamina needed is something of a doubt. Hopeful rather than confident I would say. |
|
By:
Wings of Eagles has been taken out of the French Derby so presume he is an intended runner here
|
|
By:
Sandown, I agree, but personally I wouldn't have expected him to say anything else.
|
|
By:
a good chance that he might stay. .
Doubts about getting 10f at Chester. All speed in his maiden. These are not the comments of someone who is confident of the horse being a 12f horse. |
|
By:
Sandown, but O'Brien never makes confident statements about a horse getting a longer trip unless it's absolutely bred for the job. And even then he often adds a doubt along the lines of "But the horse has so much speed that you can never be sure, blah blah". I'm not confident he'll get it. But then there have been many Derby winners where stamina was debatable before the race. If I'd only backed runners I'd been totally confident of getting the trip I'd have backed far few winners.
|
|
By:
You may disagree, Figgis, because you could start an argument in an empty room, but had AOB come out at the beginning of the week, like everyone else, and said that CoM had come on a lot since his last run etc, etc and we are very happy with him and we expect Ryan Moore to ride him I believe your experience, and everyone else's experience over the last few days, would have been more enjoyable than it has. Personally, I wouldn't back any of AOB's horses this year no matter what he said but that is not the point.
|
|
By:
And I am sure everyone will be pleased to hear that this will be my last comment on this matter on this race.
|
|
By:
You may disagree, Figgis, because you could start an argument in an empty room
So you just expect to get away with incessantly harping on about your hatred for the Coolmore mob when somebody else might disagree? Another posted told you to kindly shut up about it, you appeared to agree that enough had been said, only for you to moan and moan a few days later. I believe your experience, and everyone else's experience over the last few days, would have been more enjoyable than it has I've already said that what he's just said has made no difference at all to me. |
|
By:
*poster
|
|
By:
Thank-you to all those for sharing their knowledge and research about the sires and dams of this year's Derby runners. I'm humbled, enlightened and surprised at how seriously some of you take horse racing. I'm particularly grateful that my criteria of a likely Derby winner must have a touch of class (precociousness), speed (competitive to at least a mile) and stamina (running on after a mile) is shared by some of you eg Churchill - we do not have Churchill but the next best is obviously Eminent.
At 7/1 one could do a lot worse than backing any other on the Derby runner list, in my opinion. |
|
By:
brigust1
I decided to stick to what horses did in the races they ran i.e. beat horses who had placed in a Group race before they met. Your idea to bring in Cracksman because Permian won a Group race after Cracksman beat Permian makes the assumption that Cracksman would have won the Dante. I decided to stick to what happened, not what might have happened. Perhaps in the Derby Cracksman will join the list by finishing ahead of horses that placed in a Group race. My list shows Benbatl; Best Solution; Capri; Douglas Macarthur; Eminent; Permian; Rekindling; Salouen; The Anvil; Wings Of Eagles, and to a lesser extent Khalidi and Venice Beach met horses who had already performed (1, 2, 3) in Group races and finished ahead of them when they met. It must be enjoyable for bookmakers to see two horses vieing for favouritism who who have not yet beat a horse who placed in a Group race. One here about 30% of the money bet was bet on those two. |
|
By:
ffs, this guy ...
Richard Aylward, owner-breeder of Investec Derby rank outsider Diore Lia, has hit back at criticism of him running the lowly-rated filly at Epsom on Saturday. Debate has raged over the suitability of both the filly – who has a Racing Post Rating of 52 – and apprentice Gina Mangan, who has never ridden at the track, to compete in the £1.625 million showpiece. Asked on Wednesday what he thought of the fallout since revealing on Saturday he had moved Diore Lia to John Jenkins from Jane Chapple-Hyam – who does not think she should be running in the Classic – and booked Mangan to ride, Aylward said: “It’s all great fun, isn’t it? “I've had people coming up to me in the street and shaking my hand. The world's in a bad way, with awful things like the Manchester bombing and I'm just trying to do something for a good cause. “I'd dearly like to meet some of those smart arses slagging me off as people are dying from cancer every day and the whole idea behind what I'm doing is to raise money for Great Ormond Street, which is something I care deeply about. “The horse was entered for the Derby two years ago and these charities need all the money and support they can get. I'm 48 and have been breeding horses all my life – it’s a dream come true to have a runner in the race.” 'We're not breaking any rules' Aylward accepts Diore Lia’s rating is way below her rivals, but said: “She might be lowly rated at present but I guarantee she'll not be last as she's improving fast and wants a mile and a half minimum. “We're not breaking any rules of racing by running her, and young horses like her can improve dramatically from run to run – Lammtarra won the Derby in 1995 on only his second visit to a racecourse.” Asked about Mangan, who has ridden only one winner – at Roscommon in 2009 – he replied: “Gina's a good girl who rides well and will make sure she give the filly every chance. She might have ridden only one winner but I've the utmost faith in her as she knows the horse well.” Aylward has set up a Just Giving page to raise funds for Great Ormond Street (www.justgiving.com/fundraising/support-diore-lia) and is hopeful of an uplift in support after a slow start. He said: “I thought people would be a lot more forthcoming and give more money than has been raised so far. The hope is that with some more publicity the fund will grow plenty before Saturday afternoon. SO - is it 'fun' for him to have a runner, is he thinking she might do a Lammtarra? - in which case ok the money is raised but he hardly goes away empty handed as owner/breeder, or is it for charity ? they have only had two donations so far (10 suspect, 100 from the jockey) ... as I said before - why not give the entry, forfeit, decs fees to the Charity? that would certainly (99.9& sure) be more than he'll raise from this. The whole thing is a mess and while horse-racing generally is very obliging in letting horses take their chances, this should be outlawed. I can hardly put into words how cross this makes me - to bring up the Manchester bombings as some justification - hopefully the only thing that happens is the filly runs to form and is dead-last, and raises no money, and he looks a tool - because otherwise this madness will play out again, and one day it will ruin the race of someone who has a chance - if it was a straight mile, maybe not so harsh, but with Epsom over 1m4 it's havoc enough. |
|
By:
His 15 minutes of fame.
The other will run it in 2m 35s. |
|
By:
Using charity as an excuse for his own vanity project. The bloke is an idiot.
|
|
By:
I understand where you are coming from Kincsem but it is not always possible for the horses to meet each other. My point was that if horse A beats horse B, fair and square and horse C beats horse A, fair and square that it is not unreasonable to assume that horse C is better than both horses A and B. I know in the real world that does not always happen but it is usually a good place to start. In my opinion of course.
|
|
By:
Can Smullen do it again this year on Khalidi? The owner means business booking him for the ride.
|
|
By:
By fair and square do you mean by inches?
You and others are taking the Dante result and saying it was Cracksman who won the Dante. It is already enough of a stretch to assume a horse that beat other Group horses will do it again Saying that a horse that has never run against Group win/placed horses will beat Group win/placed horses is a bigger stretch. Do it on the course, not on paper. |
|
By:
looks like we cud have 20 runners only fin mcool maybe lets hope the outsider causes no interference with any of the proper runners
|
|
By:
Brig .. you must still be smiling everybody is just jealous of your position this oss will run a stupendous big race four or five max will stay like every year rest out with the washing nick it on the post I had an epiphany moment at York last year cannot rememeber the horse i'm on e/w going to trade out whatever in running (that's the plan depends on the snifters consumed ) on at 33's EW have also got Rhodedenronon at 20's for the Oaks for a few quid soon mounts up had some evens was 1.9 something LAY makes for an interesting winning weekend will be pom pom not smart price. My biggest return of the decade is Order of St Georgie in the gC Willies went 3/1 for a while i'm on large 2/1 + number multiple winning first leggs doubles and second legs trebles waiting for last leg George. Will trade at EVENS. PS Just got back from Beverley good day had by all. Think I could be a Talent scout what a day. Karen Tutty what a jockey Gemma Tuuty what a trainer.
|
|
By:
Brig . I only backied it because of you.
|
|
By:
PS Like last year will publish my Ascot prtfolaio shortly.
|
|
By:
before the royal meeting would be helpful
|
|
By:
Hi Loto. Smiling? No just surprised. I will be smiling if it comes off. I have laid off to cover my stake only. I thought I would be lucky to get 7s so I couldn't refuse the 4s. Some got even lower. I will also be throwing in a few shorter in running prices just in case it goes close but fails. I hope it gives me a good run for my money and isn't unlucky.
The one thing I would say about the Dante is I don't think it was that great a race. The jockey on the close 2nd Benbatl has opted to ride Best Solution and the 3rd horse isn't even a runner. I know Johnson thinks his horse has improved a lot but I think he is just covering his back for getting him beaten in a Bath handicap. And I wasn't suggesting Cracksman would have won the Dante I was just pointing out that where horses do not run against each other some cross references may be required. That's all. |
|
By:
Diore Lia out of Derby
 |
|
By:
Under a subsection of rule 83, the BHA has the power "to refuse to accept any declaration of rider for a horse".
83. Powers of the Authority 83.1 The Authority may, if it considers it appropriate to do so 83.1.1 accept or refuse to accept any of the following in such circumstances as it may determine 83.1.1.1 any Scratching of a horse from a race, 83.1.1.2 any confirmation of entry in a race, 83.1.1.3 any declaration to run, 83.1.1.4 any declaration of Rider for a horse, 83.1.1.5 any alteration of any such Scratching, confirmation or declaration, or 83.1.1.6 any withdrawal of any such confirmation or declaration; 83.1.2 refuse to allow a horse duly entered to run in any race in such circumstances as the Authority may determine; 83.1.3 when accepting any such Scratching, declaration or confirmation, impose such restrictions or conditions as the Authority may determine. Will the BHA give a reason? |
|
By:
This looks like the BHA have rules that if followed the BHA can then change the rules.
|
|
By:
“Following these discussions the connections were informed the BHA has decided under rule (F) 83 that it would be in the best interests of the sport not to accept the declaration of Gina Mangan as the rider of Dolore Lia should she be put forward for the ride in the Investec Derby.
“Everyone involved in horseracing has a responsibility to place the welfare of our participants, both equine and human, first. It is in this context that the decision has been made. “While risk can never be removed entirely, it is possible to identify factors that can increase risk, and act on them. While Miss Mangan has held her licence for a number of years she remains inexperienced, with only 69 rides and one winner to her name. "She has never ridden at Epsom and certainly never ridden in a race on the scale and stage of the Derby, with all the unique challenges it presents.” |