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Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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The Headmaster
I don't think because 1 is bad 19 is good, imp. Kincsem will confirm. Either side not great from memory, best in the middle. I have a spreadsheet with the draw from 1967 to 2016. I've taken out (a) years 2011 to 2016 as the course have gone against the BHA rules (just like the BHA themselves recently) and not filled the stalls from the inside rail. Example explains: 2013 Derby 12 runners. They put 6 in stall machine 1, 6 in stall machine 2, grouped in the centre, (stalls 1 to 4 empty, stalls 17 to 20 empty.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8VNB-2VJFY (6) the years where they had more than 20 runners. In those years they used three stall machines, often filled in unexpected ways e.g. 7 in machine 1, 10 in machine 2, 6 in machine 3. This year they must fill the two stall machines properly, 10 in one, 9 in the other, as the field is 19 runners Thirty years of two machines filled properly Draw__1st___Runners 1______1______30 2______0______30 3______3______30 4______3______30 5______2______30 6______3______30 7______1______30 8______2______30 9______2______30 10_____7______30 11_____0______30 12_____0______30 13_____1______24 14_____3______23 15_____1______17 16_____0______15 17_____1______13 18_____0______10 19_____0______5 20_____0______1 The outer stall machine 11 to 20 is imo not favoured. Best to be drawn 3 to 10. 3 Permian 4 Eminent 5 Pealer 6 Khalidi 7 Cracksman 8 Best Solution 9 Venice Beach 10 Capri Thanks on the back of a £10 note please.  |
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The Headmaster is a smooth talking charmer.
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kinscem, if Eminent, Khalidi, Cracksman or Capri wins, and they all figure in the tricast I'd gladly donate £10 to a charity of your choice, ok?
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I nominate the kincsem charity for hopeless punters.
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Personally I don't worry at all about the draw in this race. It's more a matter of jockeyship. Stall 1 might be called the coffin draw but I can't recall any horse drawn 1 that I thought should've won but lost because of its draw. Or one drawn 1 that went on to prove the form wrong afterwards.
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STOP PRESS..unreal really..thought this had ended with the long fellow
Moore jocks off Pilley to ride Diore Lia quoted as saying..sick and tired of riding overrated Coolmore donkeys who don't stay at least now i've given myself a realistic chance |
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more often than not the best horse will win the derby with dubai thunder being drawn 1 means have more on BEST SOLUTION easy
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ffs
I have the analysis from 1952 to 2016. It is about 1,200 horses. Each finishing position each year has the draw of that horse. Putting in the starting price would require three dimensions. Below is from 1967 to 2010 with the over 20 runner years taken out. Stalls 3, 5, 10 have done better < e.g. 14 in stall 5 is the number of runners from stall 5 that finished in the first 4 (1-4) e.g 21 in stall 3 is 21 out of 31 runners from stall 3 finished in the first 7 (1-7) Fin 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 Field Draw 1 3 4 5 5 7 10 16 17 18 20 31 2 0 3 6 8 8 10 11 12 21 22 30 3 3 6 8 11 17 19 21 22 25 26 31 < 4 4 4 10 10 13 14 17 18 18 22 30 5 4 6 10 14 17 19 19 23 26 28 33 < 6 3 6 7 8 8 9 10 14 16 18 30 7 1 2 4 4 6 6 10 12 14 17 31 8 2 5 6 7 9 14 15 17 20 22 30 9 3 3 3 6 7 10 11 12 13 15 31 10 8 10 13 14 16 19 20 23 23 26 32 < 11 0 3 6 7 9 12 12 15 18 18 30 12 0 3 3 8 10 11 11 13 14 14 29 13 2 4 5 9 10 12 12 14 14 14 25 14 3 5 7 9 10 10 12 13 14 19 24 15 2 2 2 3 5 6 8 8 8 10 17 16 0 1 1 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 16 17 2 3 4 5 5 6 9 9 9 10 15 18 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 11 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 6 20 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 |
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Comparing the winners of the Craven Stakes and English Derby from 1900 to now I can not find one horse that won both.
Come on Eminent. |
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Surely Dancing Brave won the Derby...............
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I think Eminent will race eminently throughout and take it up with 1f to go winning like a good thing; he'd then go for the Eclipse and could encounter Churchill should the latter show up to. What a prospect?
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bobbyjo
Surely Dancing Brave won the Derby.... The bookies refused to pay out. |
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Rail out, but the times still say the ground is pushing good to firm at the moment.
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it's your double against mine figs
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Good luck Brig.
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Thanks Loto, and the same to you. I am just walking out of the door, might as well watch it live. Looks like being a lovely day. I had planned to visit friends near Fort William but we decided to make a detour
. I've laid off ante post and put in a few other lay's between 2s against and 5's on. Just in case he looks like winning then gets nutted. I've also backed Eminent at 17s, Khalidi at 44s (to lay off in running at 14s) and Capri at 18s. I won't be back until later in the week and our friends aren't horse racing fans so have a good one and let's hope there are no hard luck stories. Good luck all. |
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Venice Beach has been backed from 18 to 13 here, and AOB's son is riding. But I thought the Leger was more his target.
With no rain in the horizon Capri has taken a walk to 21 from 16; Eminent has attracted a bit of interest with the front two ie Cracksman and Cliff Of Moher virtually unchanged. |
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Backed Salouen at 230 and traded, also to place 6 places.Backed Permian each way 5 places and Cracksman each way 4 places. Common denominator the names all end in "n" so hope Best Solution does not spoil the thread. Great fan of the Ballydoyle operation but you can`t back them all.
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Crowned Eagle e/w for me.50/1 looks too big.
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I have a fiver on it at 360s dunlaying unfortunately on the nose
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The front 3 are just about 1/1 combined to take the race and I think that the winner will come from one of these.Each has a strong factor in support but all have a question to answer.
I have recalculated his Leopardstown win and I agree with Figgis that it was a very good time and could even be special if Sovereign Debt is given full credit for his run.(Sovereign Debt just winning hasn't done any harm to that argument.) COM's Vase win didn't add anything but at least he runs like he should get further although the pedigree doesn't shout that. Eminent runs like he will be a stayer and is bred for further, so the step up to 12f could bring about a significant improvement. His run in the Craven anwas in a record time and his run in 1000 Gns was OK given that the pace didn't suit. Cracksman is the only horse in the field to have shown an excellent turn of foot when winning at Epsom and the form through Permian reads well (I don't think that Permian will show enough improvement after 10runs). I am concerned that he may be the least likely of the trio to find 12f as his optimum trip but Gosden seems confident that he will stay. Therefore my bet is to win most on Eminent, a goodly sum on COM and a saver on Cracksman. |
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2000 gns obviously
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The most confusing Derby ever.
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The O'Brien's inmates are all drifting including Cliffs Of Moher but money for Eminent, Permian and Cracksman.
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No idea whose going to win
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Probably the one with the best form and/or potential ie Eminent and Dubai Thunder perhaps.
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Outsider
40-1 Bookies benefit |
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Looked a poor Derby beforehand - and afterwards.
COM backers must have been counting their winnings. |
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Christ on a bike
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Last Derby winner to run at Killarney.....
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similar style of victory to his daddy, did n't back it, obvs...
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the favourite looked very green - might well have benefited from a run at York
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It is most disappointing for COM backers to be beaten by an unfancied horse from the same yard.
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Went to 100/1 on here. An insult of a price and yes i did back it. Not to be brigust. He ran a good race for you.
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O/T
kinscem...I believe I had a bet with you. Could you plz tell me who won? I'd forggoten the terms and conditions. Cheers! |
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Where did Wings Of Eagles come from to pick the pockets of the principals ie Cliffs Of Moher, Cracksman and Eminent? O'Brien: "Both he and Cliff Of Moher could run in the Irish Derby, if the Coolmore boys agree."
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Its all in the form book. Try reading it.
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