115 Harzand
114 New Bay
113 Postponed
113 Found
111 Highland Reel
??? Makahiki

Harzand was my long range idea of the winner as I felt the Derby form was top class and, knowing he would be put away for the summer, I felt Weld would bring him back to the boil nicely. However, there are several reasons to fret. Firstly, the Derby form has taken several knocks. I still believe it can probably be taken literally as strong staying form based on the runs of Idaho at York and Wings of Desire at Ascot. USAR probably peaked on the day and regressed after. So there are still reasons to believe the Derby form is good enough to prevail. However, secondly, Weld made what can only be called a serious error of judgement in prepping the horse in the hottest 10f race of the season. Excuses have been made for his showing but I’m not sure I believe they fully explain his performance. My view is he was unable to travel at good ten furlong pace, and the ground can have been no quicker than good, and was probably a good deal softer than that based on race times. Thirdly, I would have been interested in him at today’s prices had the ground come up soft. By all accounts, it hasn’t. So, finally, he has to run to peak form in the most competitive race he has encountered, coming back from a poor run and an injury. From a British racing fan’s perspective, I’d love to see him win as I always like seeing the Derby form upheld, but I think a horse’s prep race is critical and Weld made the wrong call.

Postponed has been the subject of fascinating debate on the thread and the way I have approached the race is to assume he will run to the rating I’ve assigned him. Having raced just twice since March, the colt is fresh and can be confidently expected to run right up to his best. However, I share the concern that he will struggle to improve on his rating. The question is whether anything can beat that.

I share Figgis’ view that Found ran a career best last time out. However, I also share the view that a horse who consistently comes second has to be viewed with some suspicion. There is also the view that she is best at ten furlongs, which I share. I am happy to say that Found and Postponed are basically the same horse on figures, and even if Found can replicate her figure at 12, if it came down to a battle, I suspect Postponed would find extra.

New Bay has to be taken seriously after running a big race on figures in last year’s renewal. Fabre’s choice of prep was again slightly curious but it was possible to believe this colt was best at ten furlongs. It was an encouraging prep and Fabre’s status compels respect for this horse’s chances of going close. However, I feel he might have been running out of stamina last year, and if this is a stiffer finish he will probably come up short again. However, he might represent a bit of value.

Left Hand has to be of academic interest as the sole 3yo filly, certainly progressive but done no favours by the draw. She will need to improve massively to win and I won’t be cheering her on, but I could see her running on for some prize money.

Makahiki is tempting but to what extent is this because none of the Europeans quite fits the bill? Firstly, he has had the ideal prep. Not fully exposed, capable of improvement, he has enjoyed a nice prep, winning the Niel with little fuss albeit in unspectacular style – but who wants to leave their big race behind in the trial? Secondly, I wonder if this track might just suit the Japanese style of racing better than Longchamp, which I feel suits quickeners rather than gallopers, and Japanese racing looks to be all about sustained galloping to me. We all face the same dilemma: how to slot him into our ratings systems. There’s always a bit of guesswork involved. Let’s compare him with Kizuna, the last Japanese winner of the Niel. Kizuna won a hard fought Niel against Ruler of the World, earning an rpr 2 lbs higher than Makahiki. However, Makahiki won his trial a shade cosily and had been rated 5 lbs higher than Kizuna on their best Japanese 12f form. Kizuna ran well in the arc to come 4th, well beaten by Treve but a couple of lengths behind Orfevre and Intello, given an rpr of 121. It’s reasonable to conclude that Makahiki might run to 126 today on that same rpr scale. That puts him right there in the mix today. His draw looks worrying but he would be held up anyway.

My conclusion is a tentative one but I think Makahiki is value. I’m going to have a go at the tricast:
Makahiki, Postponed, Found / New Bay / Left Hand

Sandown

You are marking Postponed down because of the five year old angle as apparently they don't win this race very often.

Surely then it is hypocritical to then tip up Makahini, given that Japan have yet to win the Arc?

lewisham ranger

Surely then it is hypocritical to then tip up Makahini, given that Japan have yet to win the Arc?

I'll try to explain it to you but "hypocritical" is not the word to use. It's not what it means.

The record of previous Japanese horses is in itself of no relevance. The events are unrelated. It would be like saying that because Dermot weld has not yet won the Arc despite previous attempts at it, he cannot win it this year. common sense tells you that a trainers who set the path to winning overseas in the |Breeders Cup, the Melbourne Cup and elsewhere , must know a thing or two. It can only be that he hasn't yet had the right horse.With the Japanese, you could say that their trainers are on a steep learning curve with regards to Euopean racing, but there is plenty  of evidence that they are learning fast.


The argument for age being a factor is to do with classic horses being retired early to stud so that the best don't stay around to race at an older age, to do with the WFA scale which the authorities have now recognised, and with the way in which 3 yr olds are more capable of showing improvement even without the assistance of the WFA scale. Simply put, older horses not only do not show the same amount of improvement, they also show a greater degree of regression.

However, nothing is set i stone. There will always be exceptions and perhaps Postponed is one such case.

Whether you wish to take this on board is entirely up to you.

Postponed is gen 2s with most books, bit on the tight side for trying to win an Arc, even Imo not a great 1 today.
Will hold fire for the PMU prices before playing, hopefully he's bigger on that.

now Almanzor's out ,think this is Postponed's
for the taking,done nothing wrong all season.
   GL ALL.

Makahiki 3.6 fav on the PMU with Postponed 3.9

Small win and place on Left Hand, she's a 3yo filly on the upgrade, and can improve again.

GL all.

Sandown, I am really playing devil's advocate in this case. In fact I have backed the Japanese horse. So I am hoping you are right.

Actually I think we would have had several five year old winners if horses like Sea the stars had stayed in training. How many Arcs could he have won? And horses like Ribot and Alleged would surely have had an outstanding chance of winning at five had they been given the chance. But such is the vagaries of the breeding industry.

Still I am not completely convinced of the argument that a five year old postponed would have a worse chance than a four year old postponed. If he loses today, it's not because of his age. It's because he's not good enough.

Pretty fast time for Speedy Boarding, would have to call it good to firm for the longer distances.

Highland Reel at 30 on here and 7.4 a place I think is the value bet

Well done Figgis stuck to you guns mate despite all the flak

let the carnage begin....harzand beaten before the home turn, Makahiki found nothing when asked, a horse smashed up by Wicklow brave finishes third.

That was no Arc de Triomphe

That was like running the Derby at Brighton, it just wasn't the same.

WD figgis but a poor race for me but not bad for AoB

Well done Figgis - you've been saying it loud and clear for three weeks and you've been proved right with no excuses for anything else.

you have to say it's a great training performance plus excellent tactical execution.

Ironically the stat that caught my eye this morning was that AOB had only 1 winner and 1 placed horse from 27 Arc runners in the last 10 years.

Well done winners.

Well done Figgis and other Found backers, O'Brien got the tactics spot on with his horses. Makahiki was bitterly disappointing but I got my money back with Silgan's Saga nabbing some place money!

Figgis
  wd
  GL

Very, very, very well done to every backer of FOUND! Today was the crowning glory day for her - very well done!
I could NOT be more WRONG today, but hey, you know how humbling horse racing can be. Extremely good right by Ryan Moore!

Cheers lads