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~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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Yoooooooooooooo de man Figgis.
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Shame Protectionist picked up an injury. Rescued from Australian animal cruelty to winning the Arc. What a story that would have been. He had Savoir Vivre covered by half a track through German form lines.
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Wow - She's AMAZING ... if it wasn't for her HR would have netted me my biggest ever win (chipped away all year at 200+), but she was a very nice winner in my book,
The Galileos are freakishly incredible, Coolmore right to play it up, Stay in training next year !?!? That'd cap the season off for me, I love this filly. |
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Fair result. Well deserved too. Real luck for Found was Rougets not turning up. In the race though she did very well.
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looking forward to HR and OoSG retiring to NH Stud in Tipperary ! :D Jesus the Sires we have are phenomenal
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Such a pleasing result considering I didn't have a penny on her.
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well done figgis
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Good performance, I rate around 125-126, not a great year.
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just looking at the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) (2yo Colts & Fillies) (Turf)
National Defense impressive, possible rating 115-116P, and a major form boost for Akihiro potential 123 horse and worth upgrading current rating (how you see fit?) |
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And horses like Seven Heavens and Churchill must be followed.
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Ratings could maybe better than expected next year(something to look forward too)
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very wd winners...lovely ride from moore, not sure what lemaire was doing but the horse wasn't good enough...not to bad for me as did fancy the filly in the end as discussed earlier in the thread but no great profit as had had a decent bet on makahiki...brutal for you sandown laying her must of hurt, chin up it's a horrible game
some of the stuff written on here in recent days about found was just madness but it didn't dampen the thread for me, as just scrolled straight past these posts as it got very tiresome  |
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What happened to the 3 yr olds this year? On RPR's Harzand ran -14 vs PB, Makahiki -25, Left Hand -13, Talismanic -3. Only Savoir Vivre posted an improved rating of 5. No excuses as far as I could see as it was a strong even pace and the form looks reliable although it will go on record as no better than average.Harzand may need soft ground to show anything as he lacks sufficient pace on good fast ground and yesterday it was faster than Saturday. But Makahiki's poor showing is inexplicable. Perhaps something will come to light. I don't see what was wrong with the preparation and the vibes were good. Very odd. The draw is not the full explanation there.
I didn't think that Found was as good over 12f as 10f. Well, that proves me wrong on that score. She is very consistent and I will take note of the fact that when the horse shows that it comes to hand at a particular time of the year, as she does, then it matters a lot. The Irish Champion stakes form was a crucial pointer and |I've upgraded that by a couple of pounds now. I rate her 2lbs better than the RP for her win on 126. What a training performance by AOB. Comments on thsi thread by some that he s ability to train Arc winners? That poster needs a rethink. I had the second and third as good winners in my book and Found was a loser for me only because on the day I topped up Harzand and Makahiki and reduced my liability on Postponed otherwise it would have been a breakeven race.To think that I had originally taken prices of 55.0 on Found and had her as a big winner at one point. Idiot that I am. Postponed duly ran below his best and adds to the hypothesis that 5 yr olds have something of a poor record in this particular race. I will continue to be against them in future until such time that the theory is proved wrong. No the outcome didn't hurt especially Harry as I don't expect to win every race and my risk was managed. But a poor return for the input on the race compared with very little time and effort I spent on recouping some of the loss on Limato. No regrets on that score though as I enjoy the process on what I bekieve to be the best race in thw world and so much can be learned from the study that is applicable elsewhere. So I shall be back next year on this thread but that's it with the possible exception of the Derby. Good luck to everybody who has made useful postings - you know who you are. As do the ***** who try to spoil the whole thing. But I somehow doubt that you know who you are. |
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Some interesting and highly readable posts on this thread...part of the enjoyment of a big race.Having got over the disappointment of Harzand,who never at any stage of the race looked like getting into it,I notice that the first three were all drawn high...whether that's a sign of a draw bias I doubt ...just the way it happened
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If he had run Seventh Heaven and Idaho I expect O'Brien would have had the first 5 home.
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Hi S and congratulations for your unrelenting stoicism with regard to Found, Figgis. It does you credit. I did back her but only because I backed her last year. Then as the opposition changed shape her chances became clearer.
As you say S the result was inexplicable in some respects but I will not wow too much about AOB's first three home. There were loads of no hopers and if you take out Postponed who you were already against, the 3 year olds who were expected to run better and the poor ride given to New Bay then the first three home were all that was left. I've never been enamoured by the mass runners AOB has in races simply because he has them so he has to get it right sometimes. If, however he does the same thing again then I will be forced to change my view. One swallow does not a summer make. Just as I wouldn't expect you to change your view if Postponed had won what looked beforehand like a poorish Arc. Anyway on a positive note Figgis's unrelenting defence of Found was absolutely commendable and, for me, was a highlight of this particular thread. I'm writing this through a third party and will be away for a few weeks so have a good Christmas all and good luck. |
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Ta brigust
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Did everyone get on my NAP Found ? hope so , another arc winner for me .
Hope you took my advice Figgis . |
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I backed Silverwave.
I should have realised the Irish Champion Stakes was the best race of the year. Take out Almanzor, and bet the narrow loser, Found. The girls have won five of the last six Arcs. |
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2 horses in the last 30 years have won the Arc having run more than 6 times that season before the race
Dylan Thomas and Found both years, Champions missed the race due to injury, Manduro and La Cressonniere Obrien does not prepare horses optimally for this race, which might sound silly after him having the 1-2-3, but his 3 runners fell into the race, only Found could arguably have been targetted at the the race and even she was poorly prepared to win as history shows It was a shockingly poor Arc, the winner is the biggest villain since The Fugue and she got an absolute dream trip |
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]Not sure that I read any mention of Found in Oct 1 post. Must have missed it - must be in there somewhere
 Rozelkid Oct3 Did everyone get on my NAP Found ? hope so , another arc winner for me . Hope you took my advice Figgis . RozelKid Oct 1 Really gutted that i cant have a proper bet in this years race - it would be silly of me to risk any part of my bank on the race as there are just too many questions and variables that are in my view not quantifiable. Will be interesting to keep an eye on the French Pari Mutual Prices - its possible that Japanese horse could go as low as evens or even possibly odds on their equivalent to the English Tote ....like Deep Impact did many years ago. If i had a £500 free bet then id put £300 win on the fav at 2/1 , and 2 other crazy flyer £50 ew bets on Talismanic 40/1 and Order Of St George at 20/1 - and i wouldn't even be confident in any of those bets. |
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LOL, ask figgis - he knows i tipped her up .
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watching the race back for the first time, I cant believe how poor it was, Highland Reel, Order Of St George and Siljans Saga
Id be utterly astounded if LC wouldnt have won that |
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The time was obviously the fastest Arc ever, but also faster than the fastest 2400 metres Prix du Jockey Club (strangely named by the French in honour of the English Jockey Club).
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Racing Post by Stuart Riley
Position is so important at Chantilly. Ignoring the Abbaye as it is over a straight 5f, not a single winner of a Group 1 travelled more than one wide around Chantilly's long sweeping home bend. While Found scraped paint and Order Of St George and Highland Reel travelled one off the rail, the better fancied Postponed and Makahiki found themselves three and five wide respectively - and never landed a blow. I think Stuart Riley summed it up pretty well, there was definitely a golden highway at the track on Sunday. Any horse that raced wide in all the races had no chance and even horses that were held up in the races on Saturday and Sunday struggled to land a blow. Team O'Brien got their horses into superb positions and capitalised on good early moves, brilliantly done IMO and the winner Found the rest out. Well deserved win for her, gutsy and super consistent, she ain't no villain. I got a few things wrong (Madhu/Sandown apologies) and few things right yesterday but that's horse racing, some good debates/posts. Thankfully after all my posts about Makahiki, Siljan's Saga came late to the party and got me out of the plop.  The sooner this race is back at Longchamp the better. |
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MrDinos such is life, we debate and try to make sense of all the lead up to the race and sometimes we just get it completely wrong on certain horses and that can be down to a multitude of legitimate reasons, and the notion of a super highway and positioning is a possibility for the outcome on Sunday. I remember when your ‘monster’ just didn’t turn up in the Queen Anne, I really felt for you because of all your hope and anticipation concerning the horse (even though I thought he would be totally out of his comfort zone)but I certainly do not feel the same for those who superhyped the ‘watercress’ French filly and they are still talking twaddle about her being a ‘champion’ and dreaming about if she had run, she would of won. Your post describing and comparing the Japanese input in the Arc past and present made good reading and I look forward to that sort of insightful musing in the future. I totally flip flopped on Makahiki’s chances because of poor research on my part and even though it turned t its up after I went in on the horse, I was pleased the plodder got a well-deserved place
. I would be interested on your view of Pakistani Star and whether you see him being targeted at any European races. Bee lucky. |
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Id be utterly astounded if LC wouldnt have won that
Yaaaawn...... |
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v ditto
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Yep, totally agree Madhu. Able Friend lost his race before the start at Royal Ascot (meltdown moment), you never know or can predict these things happening, especially when you back ante-post. It's the same with track conditions/bias or draws, very hard to calculate but I will not take anything away from the winner or the horses that placed, they ran the best on the day. OOSG looked liked he was going to retreat at one point but he must of hit a flat spot because he rallied and stayed on well... he's not a plodder like me!
 Japan Times, Christophe Lemaire “I’m sorry about this. It’s disappointing,” Lemaire said. “It was difficult from the last turn. He couldn’t pace himself. He had a hard time relaxing and ran out of gas quickly. “I can’t explain right now what went wrong. He was fine before the race started. His condition was perfect.” Hard to fathom how bad he was! Pakistan Star looks very promising, he needs to sort his starts out though because he will not be able to get away with it in group races. He has been very slow out of the gates. |
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Hard races in the beginning of the season took the edge off Harzand in the Arc
Pat Smullen feels hard races in the early part of the summer probably took the edge off Harzand in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Having won the Investec Derby in June and the Dubai Duty Free-sponsored Irish equivalent just weeks later, the Dermot Weld-trained colt could manage only ninth behind an Aidan O'Brien one-two-three headed by Found at Chantilly, following on from a similarly disappointing Irish Champion Stakes performance. Smullen said: "I was a little bit disappointed as we were expecting a big run, but he just didn't fire at all. I think he's a horse who put so much into the first half of the year and had very hard races in two Derbys and maybe he gave his all in the first half of the year. It may have left its mark but I have no excuses with the ground. He has been a brilliant racehorse and is a dual Derby winner so you can't take that away from him. He's a very, very good horse, but was just a better horse in the first half of the year." Irish Field |
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Id be utterly astounded if LC wouldnt have won that
On all known form La C would have had a good view... of the backside of... Europe's Champion Filly |
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only Found could arguably have been targetted at the the race and even she was poorly prepared to win as history shows
come again !? She started the season beaten 8L in a Listed race, then got up in a G3 (and this is a Boussac winner, BC Turf winner), That's when AO'B said: “She’s starting to turn into something very special. After the Tattersalls Gold Cup we’ll have the option of the Coronation Cup or the Prince of Wales’s and then no matter what she’ll have a break after that. Then she’ll come back and be trained for the autumn with the Arc in mind.” Brought to a bit of pitch before being backed off again, then showed she was serious in the Irish Champion, and with her ground she won the Arc pretty bloody easily ! |
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Nice aftertiming from Smullen - simply not good enough on the day, end of.
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For me the 2016 Arc shows just how difficult it is to arrive in early October with a horse capable of winning the best race over 12f in Europe in the peak of condition. What is astounding is how AOB managed to do it with not just one but three horses. Whilst Found rightly got the plaudits surely the performance of OOSG deserves a special mention. Here is a horse who has won the Ascot Gold Cup over 20f being brought back to finish third in a 12f race on ground that didn't play to his stamina, yet managed to place. I do wonder about the Irish St Leger run however. Was it used purely as a prep? Was it deliberately not ridden to have a hard race? Surely it would have been the ideal horse for the Melbourne Cup?
The running of Harzand and Makahiki is still a mystery to me. They both ran well below form so to say that Harzand was just not good enough is the result of superficial analysis. If he had been beaten into a place then I would agree but he wasn't good enough. But,neither he nor Makahiki showed up. Makahiki ran -14 PB and Makahiki ran -25 PB . Weld is a world class trainer with nothing to prove yet he couldn't manage it. Given the very positive vibes coming from both stables, how can we as punters get a handle when horses might regress? For Postponed, the extensive history of poor runs by older horses proved to be a useful guide yet again, as he ran -9 PB, but here were a couple of classic winning 3 year olds who just weren't as good as they were earlier in the year and who were apparently training well. But it wasn't just these 2 who didn't show. Silverwave ran 23 lbs below , Left Hand ran -13, New Bay ran -6 (even Fabre was putting out positive vibes). So why did so many fancied horses run below par. The RP has raised Found +2 which I would agree with and HR is rated +1 and OOSG -3. The clear conclusion is not just that Found won it without having to find much in the way of improvement but just as importantly many others lost it running well below their best form. Was it something to do with the course, I wonder? Was there a favoured strip where the turf was unpoached since June's Derby meeting? There were comments about the winners on the day all being on the pace? The ground certainly rode pretty fast compared to Saturday. That's what makes horse racing a fascinating combination game of probability and lottery. We can't ever know it all. |
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"game of judgement and lottery" I meant to say
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HARZAND ran -14 PB
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I'd agree that when you take out the principals there wasn't a lot left to challenge,
On Makahiki, he didn't even cross my mind - the Japanese form is let down so very often, and his run in the Niel was unremarkable, W Harzand, my own thoughts are that the ground was a big contributing factor even if he ran below what should still have been his race, I don't think Weld gets as much improvement from his horses as AO'B - Weld has great facilities but they are nothing compared to Ballydoyle. |
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The panel on ATR alluded to the cost to 'Coolmore' the win of Found in the 'Arc' ie had she not run the winner would be Highland Reel (a colt) despite them pocketing over £3.5m in prize money in the race.
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I don't think the panel know what they're talking about in that case, imp! Who said that?
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