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~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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worst field in living memory for me
All depends on how old you are I guess |
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some of you boys know your stuff
so you must surely see what a poor calibre of race it is this year might yet be exciting but... |
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Don't think the field is any worse than the ones Zarkava, Sea The Stars and Treve beat, winners excluded.
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Moore has said that there was a definite track bias at Leopardstown on Champions day.
Pity it took him three races to work it out  |
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Postponed ought to be up to beating this field
but just feel it won't be good for rcing if the Japanese horse were to prevail |
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"misjudged late run" - how many times have Japanese horses try to come from impossible positions with their run at Longchamp,
I expect Frankie will try to make it, or be very prominent, and he'll race sensible fractions that'd allow to steal a couple of lenghts, won't be a burn-up anyway, As for Highland Reel - 2nd in a French Derby, winner of Secretariat Stakes, winner of HK Vase, King George winner ... he's certainly there to win, and with good reason - he's been v light but this season he's starting to build up, witness the International Stakes (Postponed looked like another animal, but he's coming on all the time) |
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Well at least my two antepost bets Harzand @ 6/11 and One Foot In Heaven @ average odds of 400/1 are giving me a run for my money.
If I had to pick the most likely winner now I'd go for the Japanese horse but having missed all the double figure prices I can't back hm now - might see if he drifts to 10/1+ on here nearer the off or possibly in-running. |
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^Harzand @ 6/1
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FELTFAIR
18 Sep 16 17:59 Joined: 01 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,726 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog There are at this minute 145 horses listed in the Betfair market with a probability of 118.4%. At least, probably more, 120 will come out. Let`s say they are all 1000 in the market which reduces the probability for the race to 106.4% The remaining 25 runners have to stand their ground which is extremely unlikely so I would suggest there is still opportunities to be had in the market. The big question is which horses are the opportunities. The answer is I don`t know and I am happy to wait till close to the race when the picture clarifies but I would suggest the price of most of the field that turns up will be shorter on the day than they are today. Well,all horses left in are shorter than they were on September 18th but what were the big opportunites? Highland Reel 229>26 and Left Hand 59>21 as I write. Great value if you found them but only if you trade. Fantastic value if you don`t trade and either of them win. If both of them lose then you`ve had some excitement but no more. |
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I do not want Postponed to win because I do not like his owner, but he is the best horse - limited improvement.
I do like Harzand (as tough as Tarzan) a lot but the ground is not ideal - huge potential. I do like Order Of St George esp with Frankie on board, but every thing else is not ideal eg draw, ground and distance. I do like New Bay, but not as much as I like Harzand - ground is ideal and good enough to win this year. The rest good luck! |
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just looking at some Jockey Club winners with 10+ fields when the race was 12f - source Racing Post
Old Vic drawn 10 of 12 Celtic Swing 11 of 12 Sulamani 11 of 15 Anabaa Blue 2 of 14 Holding Court 14 of 14 Peinre Celebre 2 of 14 Ragmar 8 of 15 Celtic Arms 10 of 15 Hernando 1 of 11 |
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Really don't get the interest in Order Of St George. Nowhere near good enough - only running IMO to humour one of the owners.
I've no interest in Postponed but if it wins it will have looked very obvious  |
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why dont you get the interest A_T?
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I've been sucked into backing stayers in the Arc before....possibly due to heart ruling head as I want that division to do well....but has one ever won? And I'm not interested in horses finishing second or running well. Well aware of who they are.
I would also agree, from an interest/excitement point of view, that this year's renewal is the worst I can remember. There is no Italian horse, there is no German horse that you can believe in, there is no sexy French 3yo, there is no British 3yo, Harzand will not be remembered, the older horses' form is questionable and the Japanese lad is clearly no ECP, DI or Orfevre (although that might not stop him winning). The Grey Gatsby only has to come back to some sort of form to have a great chance here. So let's no pretend this is a up to scratch lads..and, dare I say, this year's Arc thread has probably mirrored the race. |
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The Headmaster
I've been sucked into backing stayers in the Arc before....possibly due to heart ruling head as I want that division to do well....but has one ever won? And I'm not interested in horses finishing second or running well. Well aware of who they are. Frankie made the point recently after being given the ride on Order Of St George that Marienbard had been 5th in the Gold Cup the year before. |
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I still can't see how it's any worse than the fields Zarkava, Sea The Stars and Treve beat, all 'sexy' profile winners, two of them starting odds on, but the opposition was no better than here.
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Frankie made the point recently after being given the ride on Order Of St George that Marienbard had been 5th in the Gold Cup the year before.
) Marienbard wasn't actually a plodding stayer, he only won one race over a staying trip (14f) the rest were over 11f/12f... and he won 3 G1 12f races in a row including the Arc. Frankie is just trying to make himself feel better with that plop... sorry Madhu. Watched the RUK Stephane Pasquier interview, good watch. Always thought you need a speedier type around Chantilly and that proved it for me. |
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The Grey Gatsby only has to come back to some sort of form to have a great chance here.
I think The Headmaster should be demoted to Support Teacher with that one... smoking weed with the students again? |
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I agree there is not one outstanding horse that is not a 3yr old as even Postponed - rated highest in the 'Arc' - is tinged winning 'weak' races against mediocre opponents eg Found, Highland Reel, etc. But I'd have to disagree about 3yr olds though eg Minding, Harzand, La Cressonniere, Almanzor to name three - the best in their age and division; Harzand has always had the 'Arc' as his objective hence only the two derbies plus a 'prep' prior; Minding was cleverly campaigned and avoiding the colts esp from her own stable; La Cressonniere and Almanzor campaigned solely in France.
Without a doubt the Irish Champion Stakes was the best race competed where the best 3yr old colts ie Harzand and Almanzor and filly ie Minding took part but sadly once again no Postponed - could so easily have run here instead of the Juddmonte against 2nd raters, in my opinion. And now the 'Arc' has been deprived of La Cressonniere, Almanzor and Minding. However, if Harzand wins the 'Arc' I'm sure he'll be lauded in the same vein as his sire Sea The Stars. On the other hand, Postponed would need to win very decisively to be considered another Suave Dancer, Montjeu or even Golden Horn, an unrealistic order may I hasten to add but glad to be proven wrong. |
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MrDinos you and your plodding stayer business, I bow down again. I'm all in on Makahiki now.
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He couldn't beat Wicklow Brave off level weights, that ain't the form of an Arc winner... madness Mad. You know what's going to happen now!?
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Mind you MrDinos you were a bit of plodder 15 years ago when you managed to win the Gold cup my son! Still up for a 2m jog now?
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I'm always plodding along Madhu... I know my limits. Good times with Mr Fallon on my back... and Mr Boeuf!!
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In my opinion if Postponed doesn't win the race it will be tragic.
In my opinion if the horse someone thinks should win doesn't all it says is they were wrong, including myself. Do punters really attach such emotional thoughts to a race about what deserves to win, tragedy if one doesn't, etc, when seeking to make a profit? Can't say I do. |
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if Harzand wins the 'Arc' I'm sure he'll be lauded in the same vein as his sire Sea The Stars
They just get better  |
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Calm down Figgis - i was talking about the class and prestige that one expects of an Arc.
Just think it will be tragic if one of the best horses in the world over 12f doesn't win the race. You still lumping on Found then ? Good luck with her ! |
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In over 30 years of following the game I've seen many winners that wouldn't necessarily be spoken of as classy Arc winners. They weren't all Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave types.
Just think it will be tragic if one of the best horses in the world over 12f doesn't win the race. There have many great 12f horses that ran in the Arc but didn't win, not that I'd personally have Postponed as a great. It's just like any other race regarding the outcome, it will depend on what puts up the best performance on the day and whatever does deserves to win. |
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Necessarily ?
The Arc is for the best horses across Europe ,or the world, over 12f in any given year. "Classy Arc Winners" and "Great" are subjective and adjective descriptions and are basically opinions - all horses are different and cannot be campaigned in the same way eg Sea The Stars. The best ive seen is Danedream and i think that in that Spring,Summer,Autumn in 2011 she would have beaten anything in the world if targeted for the race. She is also the race record holder i think. But most people would say she was not in the class of others in the list. ( bar Solemia who was just plain lucky) In my opinion these are the runners who could possibly turn out to be in that bracket with this years Arc - Postponed, Harzand , Makahiki , Order Of St George. Id give massive outside squeaks to Left Hand , Silverware, Highland Reel , and The Great Gatsby The rest, including Found, would bring the race into disrepute 2015-Golden Horn 2014-Treve 2013-Treve 2012-Solemia 2011-Danedream 2010-Workforce 2009-Sea the Stars 2008-Zarkava 2007-Dylan Thomas 2006-Rail Link 2005-Hurricane Run 2004-Bago 2003-Dalakhani 2002-Marienbard 2001-Sakhee 2000-Sinndar 1999-Montjeu 1998-Sagamix 1997-Peintre Celebre 1996-Helissio 1995-Lammtarra |
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So Order Of St George could be a great? The Great Gatsby would be a worthy winner but Found wouldn't? No wonder you're not having a bet
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*Grey Gatsby
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Just to clarify to one poster, I was using The Grey Gatsby as a barometer of this ARC; not suggesting we go all in.
Would also add the much-talked about Postponed's top RPRs are 126, 126, 126. Gatsby's are 126, 125, 125. Would it really be that mad a result? |
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The Headmaster respectfully, The Grey Gatsby has not won for 2 years and has never won over 12f, would it really be that mad a result? Not to men in white coats I suppose.
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I reckon he wants 12f and have for a while. The only time he's had his conditions was at Newmarket this summer when Big Orange was given a great ride and he was given a poor one. In that two year period he's also posted two 125s - he's got a squeak hasn't he (on good or better)? Definitely better than 50/1 anyway. But I'm certainly not suggesting he's a likely winners Mads, don't worry
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Haaa ROFL - this years arc forum is classic - no one has any confidence behind anything.
Yes Figgis , thats correct . In my opinion Order Of St George COULD be an arc winner but its unlikely. You keep using the word "Great" which doesn't mean nothing when looking for possible winners - i hold no prejudice against OOSG or the runners i mentioned above because i think it could be possible , no matter how tiny that chance is , in being able to be an arc winner. I only hold prejudices that i see as having no chance at all - and at this moment they are Found, Migwar, Vedevani, and SiljanS Saga. |
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I'd never rule Siljans Saga out of anything, Roz. Soft spot.
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Blimey so RozelKid you agree with The Headmaster that The Grey Gatsby has a chance of winning this? Looks like there are a couple on here in the early hours wearing white coats. Kin ada.
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The Great Gatsby is 5yo - last 5yo to win the arc was in 2002 Marienbard.
Is it a a Great Gatsby plunge to get in the frame ? lol LATEST Billy Mills prices on arc( oddchecker) - after the draw Postponed 7/4 Makahiki 13/2 Found 15/2 Harzand 8/1 New Bay 12/1 Order Of St George 22/1 Left Hand 22/1 Highland Reel 22/1 Silverwave 20/1 Savoir Vivre 50/1 Talismanic 50/1 The Grey Gatsby 66/1 Migwar 100/1 One Foot In Heaven 80/1 Siljan's Saga 80/1 Vedevani 250/1 1/5 Odds Place 1,2,3 |
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Would you not say this race has the look of one that could potentially give us a 'funny' result, Madhu? If I knew of a decent excuse for what One Foot In Heaven's Foy performance I could make a reasonable case out for him too
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The Headmaster
I'd never rule Siljans Saga out of anything, Roz. Soft spot. The only thing Siljans Saga will do is fir uck it up for some colt if she arrives on heat! |