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~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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i agree that all of this talk is junk - if you cant make your mind up on a race like the arc at least a week before the race then you should just leave it alone.
The race has too many variables to go over and there is no value - so just move on in my opinion. |
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Found has had too many chances and too many hard luck stories that I'd just cross her off my potential winner's list - cheaper financially and economical too
This poster's convoluted pseudo intellectual offerings are just a garbled mess at the best of times but this one is a real gem  |
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Figgis - just calm down mate - look with your eyes wide open man - take a step back and look at the ones you have bet on and ask yourself some honest questions . Dont give yourself answers that your preconceived ideas or beliefs are pointing you towards.
Its impossible i know , but try and imagine you not already having a bet . Would you still want to be on Found ...be honest with yourself and if you still do and can justify it with 100% confidence and reasoning .......then have the biggest wager you can. |
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but try and imagine you not already having a bet . Would you still want to be on Found
What is this all about? I backed her after Leopardstown and I'll be topping up my bet. Why would I change my mind since Leopardstown? then have the biggest wager you can. And that is just utter bollocks. |
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of all the ramblings my fav has to be "Found won a weak 1mile race [Boussac, 2L going away from Ervedya] there as a 2yo,
I also think with Postponed there has to be recognition of the simple Variance involved in the horse, and the running of the race, To me, there is one horse within 1lb of his best, a couple within 2lb, and most importantly: up to three horses who are probably below but could potentially beat his best, Postponed is admirably consistent, but as is the case with all sure-fire runners taking on a field of potential improvers where only one needs to get up and beat him, he's at a big disadvantage, I'd back him at 4/1 but not these odds, |
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ryan on found
seamie on highland reel frankie on order of st george |
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Ed Chamberlain on talking with AO'B re: Found,
"Aidan O'Brien talked about her at length and how the race at Leopardstown might bottom some horses, yet Found thrives on it. She gets better and better throughout the season and this is her time of year." |
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more interesting comments:
"You will need to be tough and you'll also need to have a lot of luck. The chances are they will set off quick, slow it down and then have an almighty sprint on the short straight. You'll need ten-furlong speed, maybe even the pace to win over a mile, to win an Arc around Chantilly." |
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then have an almighty sprint on the short straight.
For the record the straight is 100 metres longer than Longchamp and rises 10m from the turn to about 100m from the finish (Lonchamp doen't I believe) and then flat apparently, I discovered from the RUK feature on the Arc. |
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maybe even the pace to win over a mile, to win an Arc around Chantilly."
That conflicts with the record of French Derby winners (galloping types) at the track when the race was over 12f |
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lol- reel him in.
anyone remember the horse Westerner , came 2nd in the Ascot Gold cup in June 2004 and then won it in June 2005 when it was run at York He then went on and had a run in the GROSSER VOLKSWAGEN PREIS VON BADEN (GROUP 1) when a 11/4 2nd fav in SEPT 05 - 2 weeks after that run he comes 2nd in the arc to the mighty Hurricane Run but beating the following : Arc winner Motivator Arc Winner Bago Coronation Winner Shirroco Westerner was 16/1 sp - was 33/1 in the morning when i was at the track http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/02-10-2005/longchamp/result/180144/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-lucien-barriere-group-1 |
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Postponed is no 'surefire' thing otherwise he'd be 1/10 and no bookie will give you 4/1 certainly not when Found is only 7/1 despite on the receiving end of a 4l comprehensive defeat by the former; the chances of Found winning with Moore onboard have just lengthened, in my opinion. If Found wins connections of Almanzor would probably wish the ground beneath would swallow them up.
Frankie is a good booking for OoSG if he runs, on race day. |
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Frankie is a good booking for OoSG if he runs, on race day.
Why the doubt? The owner wants a shot at the Arc having switched him from the Melbourne Cup where he was favourite. And the owner is an Aussie I believe who has won the MC several times. The horse may not be good enough over 12f on good ground but he will handle it alright. |
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impossible
I agree with your comment about Frankie being a good booking. Expect Frankie to be up with the pace if not making it, a la Piggott on Alleged (twice) |
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Impossible, I think if Found were to win, connections of Almanzor wouldn't be criticized for keeping with their plan (and nor should they doubt themselves) - the extra 2f on top of an already v v fast sire-line and quick turnaround mean they would still have been up against it.
Found is well-proven over 8-12f at the top level, even with stunning wins at 2, 3yo he said earlier this year "She’s starting to turn into something really, very special." So, I'm sure everyone but his backer sare happy Almanzor is out, but Found could easily reverse the form over 12 |
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The owner of St George has had made some strange comments to Australian media recently - he said that he has put in an entry at Caulfied in case it turns heavy at Chantilly.
I would have thought that the horse needs it very soft if its got any chance of competing with the top ones in the arc . If the going was good grouns that i thought that would have bene "unsuitable conditions " here is the link and quote http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/vic-racing/caulfield-cup-2016-order-of-st-george-among-second-acceptances-for-caulfield-cup-and-cox-plate/news-story/20b9985e9b2e0f276a187b14a620899d Quote: THE prospect of a bog track at next month’s Prix de l’arc de Triomphe has left the door ajar for Irish star Order Of St George to launch a shock tilt on the Melbourne spring carnival. Aidan O’Brien’s flagbearer was on Tuesday confirmed as a second acceptor for both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate — less than a week after he was supposedly ruled out of contention. But while majority owner Lloyd Williams warned Order Of St George remained “most unlikely” to make a Melbourne raid, the decision to leave the Ascot Gold Cup winner in the spring features was “insurance” against a heavy track for the Arc at Chantilly on October 2. Williams and O’Brien remain “95 per cent” committed to tackling the Arc — Europe’s richest race — but if the conditions are unsuitable, connections have the option of targeting Melbourne |
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Sandown,
My only doubt is should the ground prove unsuitable OoSG will not be risked as I believe he still has the Australian option/s with little chance of winning but Frankie is a good booking. ffs, For not taking the chance in an open 'Arc' - 'the creme de la creme' of middle distance horse racing - whilst winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot beating Minding (again) in the process is incomparable. It is akin to winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup rather than the Ryanair in Steeple Chasing. |
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I don't agree Impossible, the Champion Stakes is a massive race and suits Almazor so much more, but to each his own opinion.
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Figgis 29 Sep 16 12:09 What about the promise to give up racing? Fingers and toes are crossed for a Found victory.  |
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THE prospect of a bog track at next month’s Prix de l’arc de Triomphe has left the door ajar for Irish star Order Of St George to launch a shock tilt on the Melbourne spring carnival.
What was the date of this? I suspect that it has been superseded by subsequent developments. |
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ffs
There is only one 'Arc' and I'd choose the 'Arc' over the Champion Stakes any time any day. Also, Almanzor has nothing to prove over 10f again after beating Minding and company. If I was his fortunate owner I'd either retire Almanzor to stud now (tomaximise value) or run him in the QE2 instead if 12f is not an option this year or next. I understand the winner of the Rockfel Stakes, Spain Burg, is going to the Arqana Sale at Chantilly this saturday similar to Jet Setting after inflicting Minding her 1st defeat - what a clever lot! |
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Somehow I'm struggling to form an opinion or muster much enthusiasm for this year's race.
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Rouget knows Almanzor will not stay 12f, all the comments he's made about the colt have suggested this. It would have been a pointless exercise running him in the Arc... Rouget is a much better judge and very wise.
Hong Kong Cup would be the best option for Almanzor IMO, perfect horse for that race... retire to stud, are you mad i123? Thank god you are not his owner!  |
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Same here with the likes of Minding, Almanzor, So Mi Dar and Idaho not taking part unlike the Irish Champion Stakes where the best horses in their category were running. And fearing Harzand - in doubles and treble - might not be a runner I've taken an interest in New Bay and Postponed otherwise my interest would have been 'zilch'.
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MrDinos,
Almanzor has claimed the scalps of these horses eg:- 1) Minding - a dual 1000G and Epsom Oaks winner 2) Harzand - a dual Derby winner 3) Found - Breeders Cup Turf winner/conqueror of Golden Horn (2015 Arc winner) 4) Hawkbill - Eclipse winner/conqueror of The Gurkha 5) Highlnd Reel - King George VI and QE Stakes winner 6) New Bay - 3rd in 2015 'Arc' The breeding value is astronomical already, why carry on? |
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i123,
There is a lot more fun to be had with him this year and next year... some lovely trophies to collect with fantastic prize money (Hong Kong Cup, Dubai Turf, Prince of Wales Stakes etc). Talk about sucking the life out of horse racing!!!  The breeding value is astronomical already, why carry on? Is it? |
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I was looking at it from the prospective of a 1st time lucky owner...it is like winning the lottery, big time. Imagine, if Jetting setting could managed to attract a winning bid of 1.3m euros I'd expect Almanzor getting much more. And post sale, I'd still follow his career but without the stresses of any possible untoward happenings that could his way and hurt my pocket; I'd then buy more horses hoping for another one possessing the potential of Almanzor (possibly). I know it is never going to happen but hey, one can always dream!
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I hope it stays a dream i123!
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14 for Makahiki.
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My prediction for the 'Arc': Postponed, Harzand and New Bay - any order.
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Mr Dinos
I don't think that being drawn 14 is much of a problem for Makihiki as he is a hold-up horse and was always going to be dropped out. Looking at the stats I think it could even be an advantage because of the shape of the course. Certainly, Pasquier thoought so in his interview. I would be more concerned for the tactics likely. They like this horse to be held-up and come late and wide. That worries me but it is a 3f run in up rising ground so it will be heart in mouth stuff. Anyway, for me the most important thing to say is that the ground is clearly not going to be on the soft side which has made me change my view on the race. I still think that Harzand will run well but for sure Makihiki loves fast ground. I've gone back over his races on Youtube and he is impressive. A great turn of foot. He should be unbeaten but for a misjudged late run in their Guineas. Consequently, I've promoted this horse from being a saver to a winner in my book, so he and Harzand to be the main winners. Not sure whether this adds or subtracts further from your confidence |
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MrDinos
If you have not seen Stephane Pasquier interview here it is- http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/46081/how-to-ride-the-arc-at-chantilly-take-a-walk-with-stephane-pasquier |
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Cheers Madhu, I will have a look.
 Yep, I totally agree Sandown! I think the pace of the race will dictate how he gets on more than anything. Hopefully they will go a good clip. |
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worst field in living memory for me
might as well run it on the AW poor indictment for the world's greatest race imho |
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Makahiki
For those who wish to view his races in Japan there is an upload of all of his races there in one upload on YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axytAxxb5M0&list=PLhTOXejooF5bMOSMV-jLCpyZDrZBhO58F |
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some will be disappointed with the draw for makahiki and it isn't ideal but the first turn is favorable so better to be positive than negative which i would of been had he been low...pace is going to be key here but depending on what they want to do with highland reel? is he over the top or here to win? that is key for me because if he is here as a rabbit for the other 2 horses which he might be, the pace will be fine high and allow the good horse to get a position...much to ponder
i need a drink to settle nerves have a good evening |
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worst field in living memory for me
La C is nmissing but not sure what other top middle distance horses are absent |
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Tony Cotin (who writes Ryan Moore's BF column) said that Moore has said that there was a definite track bias at Leopardstown on Champions day. Food for thought.
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