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~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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Any kind of moisture will do... desperate times call for desperate measures!!!
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Sandown, have you ever walked the course at Longchamp in October? I have once or twice after racing on the Saturday when it's been nice weather.
This October/dew talk is a lovely theory but doesn't work in practice |
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Headmaster
Yes I have. I have been to Chantilly several times on Arc Saturday morning when I've been staying there.Its often been very misty and damp. |
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Most seasoned punters are fully aware French descriptions have a tendency to overstate how soft the ground is compared to how it would be described here. For 3 of the last 5 year's Arcs the ground has been described as good but was actually good to firm on time analysis. We're at a different course this year but not another country, there has to be a decent chance that ground described as good will be nearer good to firm again.
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Come off it!
Newmarket and Ascot and describing their ground as G/F, Chantilly has probably had more sun and moon even less rain The fast ground was very evident at Longchamp last year, Dettori said the final 2f on Golden Horn felt faster than any experience in racing, the ground was G/F - October or June... Makes no difference... Not attacking anyone here, just looking for an honest conversation about the going, come on! |
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I'm trying to think of a way of saying this that doesn't sound cheeky...but they don't run the Arc at 10 in the morning, Sandown.
(I failed) Like I said though, Chantilly is a different track to Longchamp and that AWT will have more impact than any dew. You'll more than likely be right. |
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Agree Figs and ffs - I've witnessed and walked firm ground in France and England in October, we should be careful to assume dew will magic up a nice bit of good/soft
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Figgis
I have found over the years that there are several problems with producing time ratings (and therefore going allowances) on French races. They invariably seem to come out faster than expected, which therefore results in faster going allowances having to be given tobring them into line, which therefore means that going interpretations are always a notch faster it seems than official going descriptions. There are several factors involved. 1. They invariably give faster official final times than I get with the stopwatch using my normal allowance for my reaction time. this can be up to a second difference and I wonder whether they start timing from after the stalls have opened (they use timing posts) whether the stalls are on the actual distance exactly 2. The exact difference between metres and furlongs doesn't quite match eg 2400 metres = 11.928 furlongs, so that adjustment must be made (not saying you haven't made it) 3. Rail changes are not given, if they are I haven't spotted it 4.The tracks just seem to ride faster. i know this from timing sectionals. Can't explain it but eg Longchamp splits are always fast. I know what the maximum speed is per secs for racehorses and too often too many horses hit that if the official times are correct. Overall, I I don't place great confidence in the figures. I have adjusted my course allowances several times to accommodate times. I don't disagree with your comment about French going descriptions being a notch higher than ours but maybe its us not adjusting to them rather than them being wrong.Maybe there isn't as much difference as it might appear. |
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Almanzor taken out. I do think that is a strange decision there is only one Arc - the prestige of the race dwarfs that of the Champion Stakes.
I do think there is an element of conn |
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The 'Arc' has been won 75% by 3yr olds but only account for just 25% of the runners, according to the official BHA handicapper on ATR at the moment. What a staggering fact!
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Sandown, yes I agree that official French times can be faster, but standard times, if done well, will already have that factored.
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Lots of opinion not much in the way of facts.
Last year, Arc day at Longchamp was officially given as GOOD. The next day at Chantilly the ground for their meeting was given as GOOD TO SOFT. Not a surprise that there might be a difference but Chantilly, 30 miles North of Paris, does get more rain than Paris, offically around 25 mm in October. The RP used for its Top Speed figures at Chantilly a going allowance of 0.05 spf and described it as GOOD.For Longchamp on the Sunday they used 0.39spf and described that as good to firm. So,, the RP analyst, using official times, agreed with the upgrade of description, but Chantilly still rode slower than Longchamp. One year, hardly enough to draw hard and fast conclusions.Lets go back further. 2015 Longchamp Official G RP GF Chantilly Official GS RP G 2014 G GF GS GF 2013 S G S G 2012 Hvy S VS/Hvy GS 2011 G GF N/A N/A Each year, Chantilly was softer than Longchamp. Each year the RP described the ground as a grade faster than the official. They must use the same penetrometers in France,as far as I know, so its hard to see why they should read the measurements differently to the UK. If so, then it the ratings methodology that is causing the discrepancy or the course allowances used or the timings as i explained earlier. Or do we just assume that we, the British, know how to do this better? That would bea very arrogant conclusion to draw, if so. |
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They must use the same penetrometers in France,as far as I know, so its hard to see why they should read the measurements differently to the UK.
I don't think they do. Unless somebody knows different? I remember when the penetrometer was first used in France and many of us punters were envious that we were still having to rely on a bloke with a stick. However, that soon changed as we quickly realised the penetrometer readings were even more unreliable. The TurfTrax tool was a new invention and as far as I'm aware it's still not used in France and the readings certainly look different over there, maybe somebody can correct me on that. Or do we just assume that we, the British, know how to do this better? It doesn't have to be that at all, just that their idea of what should be termed 'soft' ground is a bit different than ours. In fact 'our' idea of good to firm ground is different now than about 30+ years ago before the heavy watering. |
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The 'Arc' has been won 75% by 3yr olds but only account for just 25% of the runners, according to the official BHA handicapper on ATR at the moment. What a staggering fact!
That would only be true if looking at just the past 10 years. Since 1981, a more reliable sample, 3yr olds have won 64% of the races from 47% of the runners, |
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It doesn't have to be that at all, just that their idea of what should be termed 'soft' ground is a bit different than ours
That's possible. The Irish have another view, do they not? And good ground in NH could be GS or even soft for flat horses. There is also the big problem of wind speeds coming into it and rain falling during a meeting. It makes life difficult when drawing conclusions about ground preferences for individual horses. |
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The Irish have another view, do they not?
Yes it certainly seems so. They also have these yielding, good to yielding, yielding to soft descriptions which cloud the matter even further. |
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figgis
If you missed it, watch the Planet turf special on the arc. They walked the course with Pasquier and his comments gave useful insights. |
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Not got around to watching it yet but thanks for reminding me, I will do.
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The 'Arc' has been won 75% by 3yr olds but only account for just 25% of the runners, according to the official BHA handicapper on ATR at the moment. What a staggering fact!
You may have misheard impossible. It can't have been 25% of the runners that you heard. In the past 10 years 3yr olds kave made up 44% of the runners |
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I believe the stats I quoted by Phil Smith was over 20 years.
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done my early homework.
pace angles are interesting....gonna need to know the pacemakers and front rank types though. one potential improver at a price. |
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Zarak?
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Zarak is 5/4 in the Prix Dollar over 10f.
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doubt zarak stays....
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the other dupre horse is probably the pacemaker for harzand.
surely highland reel and savoire vivre will sit just behind him. probably rules out highland reel as he will need fractions slower than the sheema to have any chance of reversing form with postponed. |
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Not SV?
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Here is Savoir Vivre, erm, "winning" Deauville's Grand Prix
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gA4V1AhLmc |
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I believe the stats I quoted by Phil Smith was over 20 years.
Yeh, in that case 3yr olds have won 75% of the Arcs but from 46% of the runners.Still pretty impressive. |
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I think the fact he is no longer in the race is the decisive factor
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I've just heard the interview with Phil Smith on ATR. It's possibly being pedantic but he did get it wrong with his percentages for 3 yr olds winning the Arc over the past 22 years (not 20). He quoted 25% of the horses and 75% of the wins. He must have just had a memory block. The actual figures are 45% of the runners and 77% of the winners for the record.
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some interesting stuff about the weather and analysis to back it up
 ... i was at longchamp last year, it was lashing down that evening in paris, maybe that effected chantilly 24 hours later... i couldn't be sure though, chantilly can be very damp and misty on certain mornings is the draw friday morning still anyone know times or whether marion bartoli is on again...thx in advance |
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"I was at longchamp last year, it was lashing down that evening in paris, maybe that effected chantilly 24 hours later... i couldn't be sure though". Correct, Harry. It rained for several hours on the Monday morning and afternoon as well.
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ah yes you have reminded me elbows, it was a monsoon monday at lunch time, the mrs was pizzing on giving me earache...maybe that's why chantilly went good/soft on the day
...its a maybe though!! |
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Smullen is confident of Harzand's chance,
He added: "I think provided there is a little ease in ground - it wouldn't want to be very fast as it is well-documented he likes a little ease |
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Shame to see Highland Reel still in the British Champion Stakes ... hoped he'd be taken out
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Found is at a ridiculous 7/1 despite suffering a 4l defeat at the hands of Postponed (2/1) because some racing pundits/aficionados have plumped for her. There are so many 'willing' partner/winner than Found especially from the foreign contingent eg New Bay, Silverwave, Savoire Vivre and Left Hand.
Found is a winner for me, and if she wins I'd donate £50 to a charity, I promise! Only a smidgeon (6mm) of rain forecast prior to race day but unlikely to be enough for the soft ground horses. |
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interesting race from SV
he never settled early and only did when he stepped the pace up. on the other hand erupt never pulled. do think he will be limited in a fast run race up witht he pace and probably wont have the gears to come from off the pace. slow to medium pace and he is in with a chance. fats pace and order fo st george on faster ground has to be worth a bet also. |
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think found need luck to win this.
postponed holds her postponed holds highland reel also....HR will need a slower pace than the sheema to be have a chance and try to nick it from the front....dont see that hapening with SV and a pacemaker. maybe if they slip the field midway and postponed finds traffic problems... |
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if you are interested in seeing the whole course with jockey's eye view
http://www.prixarcdetriomphe.com/les-courses/ |
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Notwithstanding my opinion of Postponed unless Harzand and Order Of St George are inconvenienced by the going, the potential of Makahiki has been over-estimated and New Bay is just not good enough it would not surprise me - granted a trouble free passage - Postponed winning this race doing handstand ie he could have been underestimated given his form against 'inferior' opponents.
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