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~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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If we want to be able to debate races and horses on an equal footing we have to have some common source available to all.
I take your point but that's impossible unless everybody accepts RP ratings (or anybody else's) as accurate going into the race and afterwards, which of course they won't, nor do I think they should. Those figures could just as easily be used to argue that the RP have a tendency to underrate runners going into the race and overrate them afterwards. The last time I looked at predictive records Timeform had a much better strike rate than the RP so if any commercial ratings are going to be used theirs would at least be better. |
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Reviewing the AP exercise, its been a real up and downer. I find myself in exactly the same position after a few weeks of trading as I would if I had left it today. The only question is whether I could have got as much on, which I doubt very much.
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RP ratings are cheaper to use and their back records are very accessible. Anyway, I always do my own ratings both collateral and time ratings plus ectional projections where possible, so I can adjust quite easily. I use the PR's to do the heavy lifting but I wouldn't dream of relying on those alone. They are all going to be wrong in some way if you do your own figures but it makes life so much easier to rate races and cards when the startpoint is there in front of you.Just cut and paste.Let the spreadsheet do the rest.
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Almanzor left in as a "precaution" presumably they're worried Ascot will be destroyed or something before Sunday. Understandable.
He's going to run Sunday. |
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If Almanzor turns up Rouget can hardly say that he has been concerned about punters after his adamant statement that he would stick to Plan A.I agree that the Champion would allow longer for recovery and he would have a better chance at 10f of adding another prestigious G1 than he would on Sunday over 12f.
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Strictly on weights and measures Almanzor is my winner but I don't have him as favourite because I think he had a hard race last time after quite a busy season. It was a peak performance which I wouldn't be sure he can repeat soon and then there's the unknown of the extra distance. That said, if I was connected I'd still have a go depending on him showing his well being, although even that can be misleading this late in the year.
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However, while he has been left in the showpiece race, connections confirmed it is still the plan to bring him to Ascot on October 15.
"He's been left in just as a precaution but he will go to England," said Sylvain Vidal, racing manager for part-owner Gérard Augustin-Normand. "I don't think he'll be running in the Arc, Jean-Claude wants to go to England with him. "He has such a turn of foot, as he showed in Ireland, that 10 furlongs suits him better than 12. "Also, three weeks would be a bit sharp to run him back, Ascot will be nearly five which is better. "In England he will be up against mainly the same horses he beat in Ireland so it makes more sense, there's no point in changing things. |
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Lots of face-saving going on here from the trainer. Expect to see him Sunday.
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From Rouget stable tour ATR
LA CRESSONNIERE 3 b f Le Havre – Absolute Lady The Gerard Augustin-Normand-owned filly is currently unbeaten in three starts. All of her three races were listed races ranging from seven furlongs to the mile. She was last seen in March at Saint-Cloud where she beat Qatar Power by two and a half lengths. “This is a very good filly who adapts to everything. She can go in any ground. She is quite small, but has a nice stride and she definitely has a big heart. She always gives everything. She will accompany Qemah in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches. She had an early start to the season as I want her to be fresh for the French Guineas. She also has an entry in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.” Her size was somethin I spotted and made a point of mentioning. If she had run in the Arc against bigger, stronger, older horses she may not have matched her prevous runs even without the trip doubts [i]ALMANZOR 3 b c Woottton Bassett – Darkova Made his debut in the provinces where he won a listed on his third start. He was well beaten in the Group 1 Criterium International, which was lifted by Johannes Vermeer. On his seasonal reappearance, he finished third in the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau at Chantilly. “He ran third at Chantilly, which was not a bad performance. He never ran his race in the Criterium International. The ground was far too heavy that day and I regret that he ran that day. I had the same misadventure with Le Havre in that race. Anyway, I’m not sure yet if he is a miler or if he is a 1 ¼ m horse. He is entered in the Prix de Guiche over nine furlongs, which will test him. He has entries in the St James’s Palace Stakes and in the Prix du Jockey Club. But he definitely wants better ground.” He's clearly had major doubts all along whether the horse was a 12f horse or not |
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AT
Expect to see him Sunday. What inside track do you have that the owner, French journalists and everyone else doesn't have? I hope nobody backs it unless its with a run on the back of your comments. |
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Interesting comment from the Aussie(he's very good whovever he is)on ATR's World Of Racing re Chantilly
"Its a stiffer finish up the straight than Ascot" Its worth playing back on catch-up for his comments on the Arc. |
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I don't understand when trainers like Rouget have doubts about their horse's stamina over longer than a mile further down the line they then decide to run it as a 2yo over a mile, particularly in softish conditions. If a 2yo can get a well run mile at that age then the least it's going to get later on is 10f and often 12f. I suppose it was understandable with Frankel not stepping up soon as he had a tendency to be headstrong and needed to be reigned in. In France it's not always as predictable if a horse will get further as some of their 2yo mile races are run at a crawl and reveal nothing stamina wise. It's also difficult to say with Almanzor as his 2yo mile races were at gaff tracks and I'm not sure what the form is worth but he looks at least worth a shout over 12f. I think it is more likely to be the hard race last time that proves his undoing.
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Weld is still set to be represented by dual Derby winner Harzand, who is one of 19 remaining possibles for the Group One.
After picking up an injury in the Irish Champion Stakes, the colt has had to be nursed back to health in time to give Weld a chance to win the race for the first time. Pat Smullen rode Harzand on the gallops on Tuesday morning and said: "He is in tremendous form and I am really happy with him. He felt well so it is all systems go. "The only one negative would be that it looks like the ground will be on the quick side. "He is a tremendous horse and has some [power. The way he recovered from Epsom to bounce back from that bruised foot to win the Irish Derby. He has recovered from being struck in to in the Champion Stakes. It is a great sign for the horse that he has that healing power." I am well pleased with that. |
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Three horses finished like Pegasus at Leopardstown , Alice Springs , Almanzour and Found . I believe they were on the best turf on the outside . Almanzour was in the right spot over the right distance . don't think he will even attempt 12 furlongs.
I think Found will win the Breeders Cup again . My winner is the Japanese horse Makahiki , he will surely come on a ton for his prep race and this is not a great race , only Postponed has looked rock solid at Group 1 for some time. Can't see outside these two. |
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Almanzor has been left in as a precaution against what?
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Sea The Stars 6 pounds below his best in the Arc
 RP ratings |
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Almanzor has no chance of staying, he also wouldnt have won a Guienas, it wouldnt have been an issue for the filly
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I do hope you're not going to spam this thread with your opinions about La C
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But I suppose why stop now?
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biggest tragedy since Manduro
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im backing Left Hand now
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Almanzor has been left in as a precaution against what?
A_T, exactly, this is a laughable statement. How can you put a horse in an earlier race as a precaution when you'll still have no idea what the situation is with the later race. Unfortunately we have a racing press that just relays such bullshit without question. |
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I'm glad connections are very happy with Harzand after this morning's workout, and now a bit of rain please prior to the race would be icing on the cake and is what supporters are hoping for.
'As a precaution' was the reason given by connections of Almanzor for leaving him in at this stage? Absolutely bizarre,... precaution against what? A possible change in ownership resulting in a change of plan, a smaller field, a late scratching of one or more of the fancy runners eg Postponed, Makahiki, Found, Harzand, etc. |
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Couldn't touch Harzand on the ground, even if it's not the strongest race,
Postponed is a worthy fav but too short for value, Almanzor is a big danger - if he's not already intended to run I'd imagine they'll be looking at how he works tomorrow or the next day - the Champion Stakes is much more suitable though there is the prestige of winning the Arc for the French Order of St George is a definite no for me, trip and ground against him Highland Reel is a big price imo, had a great summer, will love the conditions - the question is whether or not he'll go to Aus - though AO'B still has 1)Bondi Beach, 2)Isaac Newton, 3)Hit it a Bomb, 4)Long Island Sound still in the Cox Plate + Caulfield Cup, along with George so ... HR a good chance to run in the Arc. I know he's not hugely rated and is held by Postponed twice but he's come on a lot this year and again the ground will really suit him, so much speed on his damside. |
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If Postponed is no value and Harzand does not get his ground maybe a punt on New Bay (14/1), 3rd last year behind Golden Horn but finished in front of Treve.
I do not fancy Almanzor as I do not believe he stays the trip (my opinion only). I guess Almanzor could be given a 'gentle' ride in the 'Arc' and if faced with near 'zero' chance at the 2f marker eg tenderly ridden to get the trip and if no usual acceleration at the 2f marker, will be allowed to come home in his own time thus (possibly) saving him for the Champion Stakes, but that could rebound badly. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush (oiseau dans la main vaut deux dans la brousse) - maybe someone could remind connections of Almanzor. |
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Dermot Weld's dual Derby winner Harzand booked his ticket for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly on Sunday with an impressive gallop on Tuesday morning.
Harzand's participation had been placed in some doubt when he was struck into during the Irish Champion Stakes three weeks ago, just his second defeat in six races. But just as he had shown after the Investec Derby, his powers of recuperation are exemplary and Harzand heads to France reportedly at the top of his game. All big-race jockey Pat Smullen is hoping for, however, is a favourable draw after the Weld-trained Famous Name was narrowly denied in the French Derby from stall 17 at Chantilly in 2008.[/i] Just the report Harzand backers wanted to hear |
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The report Harzand backers really wanted to hear is that it's p1ssing down at Chantilly, I'd have thought.
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The horse comes before the rain Head. Anyway, it should be good ground and a strong gallop will suit, as will the track and stiff finish apparently
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I'd definitely be looking for rain if I was a backer, Sandown. It's his preferred going...plus he's coming back from an injury, is quite a big boy and doesn't do anything in a wild hurry. If it starts to rattle he's a million in my humble, not sure he'd even run. Although as with every other stupid track that's put down an AWT surface I'm told Chantilly doesn't drain so well these days.
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Never had the term "firm" in an October going description at Chantilly in 25 years Head.Mostly either got "soft" in it or just "good." I've looked at the median times for 12f there on June ground from my data base (French Derby over 12f) and median time in 15 runnings was 150.50 secs. Median time at Longchamp for 35 Arcs on October ground is 149.80. I suspect that maybe Chantilly is a touch stiffer.
The same ground as at the Curragh when he won Irish Derby will do . My going allowance was good ground that day although official ground was good/yielding. They are watering there apparently so shouldn't think that they would want to run it on fast ground if they can help it. |
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nice to hear weld and the crew pulled fascinating rock, normal filth from this crew as predicted
harzand working the house down i see  anyway enjoyed the read on here today so not all bad some biased but some good stuff... looking forward to the race and going in again on makahiki |
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The watering of the track: means it is G/F as our descriptions would go, they wouldn't water on Good ground as there is a chance of rain. Going very likely to be rattling fast, just look at the weather they've had and the forecast,
as for Harzand - look at the Ballysax, knee deep in mud and he thrived on it. If he can replicate that form on Fast ground he'll be a worthy Champion |
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Chantilly forecast today through Sunday.No rain.
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Lovely... looks like they got the forecast right (Weather Channel) for a change.
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Some rain is forecast on friday (only about 5mm) almost certainly extinguishes any chance of Order Of St George running but could enhance that of Almanzor staying the trip and participation. Being autumn and Chantilly, I do not think the ground would be any quicker than that encountered in the Irish Champion Stakes or Irish Derby so it would be ok for Harzand otherwise connections would have alluded to that yesterday. But every extra drop of rain would enhance the chance of Harzand.
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Some wishful thinking going on. Let's look at the facts.
1. It will remain dry. The course is watering. That does NOT imply"rattling" ground. This is October 2 not July 2 we are talking about.There is a morning dew now and you do not get evaporation to anything like the same extent as happens in high summer.It's long odds-on that the ground will be given as "good". 2. On "good" ground, there can be no excuses for anything. No horse should be majorly inconvenienced or advantaged by the going on Sunday.If Harzand can't win on that ground then so be it. Soft ground might have reduced the chances of some others, that's all.If Harzand is OK he will run given that he has been targeted since the irish derby at this race, and it is Weld's best ever chance of winning the race. 3. If stable press statements are to be believed, there is very little chance of Almanzor running.If they run on Sunday there is only 2 weeks to Ascot and they will have blown their chances of winning a G1 over 10f. What possible circumstances might occur which might lead to a change of heart? All of the better placed horses dropping out? Never say never, I suppose, but they- trainer, owner, manager - would make themselves look ridiculous. A 10f Champion is no less valuable than a 12f Champion. |
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Oh, and like Longchamp, fresh ground has been saved for Arc day. There will be a strip of fresh ground at least 3/4 metres wide down the straight, and hopefully the turf will be kept long as it that is less injurious to galloping horses. With an uphill finish no horse should be disadvantaged other than any with suspect stamina.
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Can your hosepipes stretch to Chantilly?
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That's absolutely absurd Mr Dinos.
But I have arranged for 10,000 Harzand backers to turn up at Chantilly on Saturday , tank themselves up as much as possible, and then walk the course, relieving themselves as they go. That should do the trick.  |
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Rouget in interview with ATR today
[i]ALMANZOR 3-y-o b c Wootton Bassett – Darkova Almanzor became headline news when he defeated one of the best fields ever seen in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He subsequently was rated 127, which makes him the leading European in the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings. “Almanzor is in great shape and has come out of the Irish Champion Stakes in great order. As always after such a race, I give my horses a bit of light work, but he has now come back into the real training and is pleasing us. He will do some work next week. I think he is still in great form and he has the Champion Stakes at Ascot as his next target. This was always the plan and regardless what happened with La Cressonniere in the Arc, the Champion Stakes is the right race for him and one we have targeted for a while.”[/i] That should kill off the idea of him running in the Arc once and for all |