13/2 looks quite big now on the Japanese horse - drift probably being solely on the base of its draw.

hmmm , ew price now for punters who fancy him - draw wont mean nothing at Chantilly.

i remember watching that race - over 2 years ago - it feels longer actually.

on another horse - Youmzain - never good enough to win an arc but still getting in the money in 3 consecutive Arcs up to when he was 6 years old - funny old race eh !  66/1 , 12/1 , 20/1

haa, patience is wearing thin with you Figgis., lol , i dont want to fall out with you and dont want to be offensive - have a sleep and read up again in the morning. 

CLASS AND PRESTIGE -  RACE, RACE, RACE, RACE, RACE

You are correct in that you dont understand ...or probably more accurately you dont want to understand what im saying from my point of view because it indirectly knocks yours. 

You are at this time suffering from a bit of scotama ,  You quote everything thing i state then flip it or turn into something else to create a pre-cursor for you to  reply to someone who is indirectly implying that your ideas are wrong just by their own ideas and opinions.

be cool and be open to understanding other opinions - yes i see a 6/1 shot as having no chance  spot on 100% correct.  I see a 6/1 shot as having a ZERO chance of winning the race , it may come 2nd , it may come 3rd , nut in my book i see it having no chance of winning. If i was in the bookmaking business and i was a layer i would lay the 6/1 all day.

Very good read with plenty of decent opinions. It's a wide open year and there's plenty of precedents from history supporting several runners' claims. Supporters of Left Hand will point to Treve. Supporters of Order of St George will highlight Marienbard. Supporters of Makahiki will use the performances of Orfevre, Nakayama Festa, Deep Impact as evidence of class and throw in the notion that a French jockey can make the difference to deliver a win for Japan. Supporters of HArzand will point to Workforce that it can be done.

Postponed doesn't set the pulse racing BUT I just wonder if he is becoming unappreciated. He is the best of the older generation horses. Found, Highland Reel, New Bay look limited Group 1 horses in the 120-122 range. He's a deserving favourite though whether he should be as short as he is is debatable. But this is 2016 where bookies can clip a horse like Altior into 3/1 favourite for the Arkle on the back on confirmation rather then actual evidence on the track!

The only two horses in my mind that can challenge him are the two CLassic colts, Makahiki and Harzand. Makahiki has mystique and nobody knows how good he really is. 70-80% fit in the Prix Niel apparently, he probably ran to around 115 that day winning cosily. It's not hard to envision him coming on for that and given he could've had any amount in hand, he's a strong contender.

Harzand's Derby form hasn't looked clever but I think there is so little to go on, we can still label him a scopey type. Our notion of Harzand is that he's a strong staying type who likes soft ground. That isn't in doubt. But are we actually 100% sure that is all he is? In the Irish Derby I thought he showed good tactical speed that allowed him to go where he needed to be. His Irish Champion Stakes run wasn't great but apparently readily excused as having been struck into during the race. He wasn't beaten that far in any case with Pat Smullen going easy in the final furlong.

For me, it was clear that excuse was a valid one as he was being pushed along well before the home straight. He jumped out well and settled until it looks as if he was bumped into from behind. From that point he was being pushed along. He moved just fine on quicker ground and a glance at his overall pedigree suggest there is more to Harzand then simply the notion he is a plodder and soft ground horse. A DI of 1.40 out of a Xaar mare gives hope there is more to Harzand than we have actually seen. He has the draw with his pacemaker on his inside. He has the tactical speed to jump out handily and I can see a similar run to his Irish Derby win racing in the top 6 horses then making his move just before the home straight. 8/1 is more then fair as is PP's 7/1 quote for 4 places.

GL all! Thanks to all who contributed, even those who bickered like schoolkids!

Rain in Paris overnight

can see "soft" being in tomorrow's description

Dermot Weld reckons the Ground is a bit quicker than Good (on ATR)... and Harzand will still run.

Left Hand and Silverware, on both at juicy prices. Barely been mentioned on here but expect 1 of them to win.

Well...1st race a boost for makahiki,and juliet  rose just franked l/hands vermeille form.

Difficult with so many slowly run races today and contrary to what I though the fillies race turned out a decent time. I'd say it's bang on good ground and that's exactly how it looked.

Raining heavily at the moment, according to to Lee Mottershead (whoever he may be).

Lay you what , Found? i dont lay horses as ive said mentioned in previous posts- im not a bookmaker.

Sandown you talk a good game with this five year old theory but I get the impression you are concerned Postponed is going to bust it.

Really gutted that i cant have a proper bet in this years race - it would be silly of me to risk any part of my bank on the race as there are just too many questions and variables that are in my view not quantifiable.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on the French Pari Mutual Prices - its possible that Japanese horse could go as low as evens or even possibly odds on their equivalent to the English Tote  ....like Deep Impact did many years ago.

If i had a £500 free bet then id put £300 win on the fav at 2/1 , and 2 other crazy flyer £50 ew bets on Talismanic 40/1 and Order Of St George at 20/1 - and i wouldn't even be confident in any of those bets.


Good luck tomorrow everyone - hope you all enjoy all of the Group 1's throughout the day and manage to get a return on your bets.

Au Revoir

RP says Vedivani will run in the same silks as Makahiki today :o

Is this a Typo?

It's in the Makahiki section...like the last paragraph.

Thought he was Harzand's pacemaker...didn't know the J aps purchased him to do a pacemaking job.

Will be backing Makahiki win and place...4 place option on here is good.

Just worried if Harzand will be fast enough to take this....I remember earlier in the season after he won his trial and Smullen was asked about his future prospects he said he would be perfect for the St Leger...plus there has to be element of him just outstaying USAR and Idaho rather than beating them for speed.

Makahiki will do for me...seems to save a fair bit up his sleeve for that final challenge and I quite like having a Lemaire on board....the Japanese jockeys have proved way too costly on their European raids.

Got a feeling the race will be set up for a fast closer in the final furlong rather than someone like Postponed or Harzand who will try and take up between the 3 and 2 pole....Makahiki can be the one.

There is not much difference on the pmu between Postponed and Makahiki and with the yen flying around later, it's not difficult to envisage Makahiki going off fav. Le Paris Turf is forcasting Postponed to be about a 9/2 chance.

Postponed is my idea of the winner..a lot has been said of 5yos, but he has been relatively lightly raced since last years Hardwicke. He's only raced 4 times since last years arc meeting and with the exception of the Hardwicke ( widely regarded as given a poor ride ) , he is unbeaten over 11f or more. Maybe, sometimes some races are quite obvious to call and to me this looks 1 of them.

Savoir Vivre deserves a second glance for each way purposes. Can't think of many German trained that run in the arc at 3, they usually give them time to mature and are rarely seen outside of Germany at 3. The trainer sounds quietly confident, but his race pattern is noticeable to me. Despite finishing a close second in the German derby, he seems to run best when fresh. A 5 week break from deauville looks ideal to him.

May the best horse or horse with the most potential win the 'Arc' today. Also, good luck to all 'Found' backers!

lewisham ranger

how many five year olds that have run in the Arc have gone into the race with his sort of profile?

Treve just last year for example? Went off 2.2


noone can give a definitive answer at this stage to whether Postponed is value or not. It's just subjective opinion.

Not true. I can give a definite answer at this stage. All forerecasting/probability assessments of any type (economics, weather, politics, military planning,business etc) relies on a mixture of data of all descriptions, analysis, observation, experience, judgement. To call it just subjective opinion is to misunderstand what is involved. What is true, is that other people can and do interpret things differently which is why you will find backers of Postponed at the price. What matters is how your P&L looks at the end of the year, not today.