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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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Cloth of Stars has one twonky.
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one man's quickened is another man's stayed on
not a bad idea though |
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I was at chester in the pre parade ring where usar was whinnying and and taking a good look around,where as the other obrien horse looked pretty straight and relaxed as you would expect from a horse having his fourth run. In the race itself to my eye the horse travelled beautifully showing a slight knee action suggesting to me good ground will be right up his street. His confirmation is everything you like to see in a derby horse in that he is not overly big and seems to be very well balanced as he showed durng the race. On pedigree and certain improvement from chester plus the confidence of the jockey i make him the one to beat.
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StaroftheClass
ACROSS THE STARS will win this Derby. II’ve put €76 at 41 on him as a saver. Hr is a big strong horse with a good pedigree. He was assaulted in his last race by the winner. GREEDISGOOD kincsem, after spending lots of time on hard research (which everyone on here appreciates), who is going to win?? My main bet is on Moonlight Magic, I don’t know what is going to win. The only Derby I was sure was 2002 when High Chaparral won. I didn’t back him. I backed the Kazzia/High Chaparral double. I was there for both races. I was at the Derrinstown when he won. It was when he came back into the winner’s enclosure that I knew. He wasn’t blowing in the slightest, as relaxed as when he went out to the race. |
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Thank you kincsem, I like the idea of concluding not to bother with the draw on the basis of hard evidence as opposed to because the rest of us have n't done the proper analysis
 .Might the discrepancy between 60 and 63 runners from stalls 1 and 2 respectively just be down to non runners? I know you can do the analysis to remove non runner corruption - and you probably have - but worth asking. |
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^ stalls 1 and 3 sorry, but you get the gist.
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Based on times of the 1st 2 races the ground still has plenty of soft/juice in it.
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I'm looking at the discrepancy in runners in the draw figures (not something I want to do on Oaks day).
I think in 1952 more horses started than finished (or were listed in the form book). In 1962 a large number of horses fell in the Derby, and in 1992 iirc one refused to enter the stalls. I'll need to check these out and decide how to manage it. |
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will be good by half 4 tmrw
24 degrees |
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No chance that will be good . Clerk may call it good ,but they wont be good grond times.
Damp misty start very little in way of sunsine chance of further showers. |
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For me, this Derby is all about projected improvement. I’ve done some arguably educated guesswork and come up with these theoretical projections:
122 US Army Ranger 120 Harzand 116 Idaho 114 Wings of Desire 114 Massaat 113 Port Douglas 111 Moonlight Magic 109 Deauville If I were to apply the same principles to the rprs, it comes out like this: 124 Massaat 123 US Army Ranger 123 Wings of Desire 121 Harzand 117 Deauville 116 Idaho 115 Cloth of Stars 114 Moonlight Magic 114 Port Douglas This of course takes no account of handling the track, run of the race, going preferences etc. My own feeling is that US Army Ranger has been maligned unfairly. On just his second start he was able to thrash Ormito by 7 lengths (hardly a world beater but a different league to the horses beaten by the likes of Ulysses), competing well with a vastly experienced group 2 winner who had not been disgraced in a group 1. History suggests that these sorts can improve massively on their 2nd and 3rd starts, with improvement levelling off quite dramatically thereafter. Admittedly, every horse is different, and this colt might fail to handle the day, the track, the draw, the run of the race etc. But the same goes for all of them. For me, he’s tremendous value at 5-1. I had sixty quids worth of speculative bets antepost which included 15 at 130-1 on Harzand, but connections did not seem all that optimistic following his Ballysax win. I’ve no idea what to expect from him but if he handles the track he must go well. It would be ok with me if he wins but after my exotics and the bet on US Army Ranger he won’t be my main hope. I expect Wings Of Desire to run to a level good enough to come 3rd or even 2nd in an average renewal of the race. If the aforementioned pair fail to improve as expected, I imagine it will prove a below average edition and he will probably win. With ground no quicker than good, I don’t expect Massaat to stay, especially as he’s a keen going sort. I would also be disappointed if he was good enough, having been soundly beaten twice in group 1s. Idaho has a poor strike rate but I liked his run in the Ballysax and I feel he can outrun his odds without winning. I have no interest in any other runner. I’m not saying nothing else can win, as with 16 horses running around Epsom that would be unduly dogmatic, but I will be surprised if the winner comes from outside the top 4 in my first list. I’ve been surprised before, many times, but I keep persevering… |
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kincsem - when you do your draw analysis, just out of interest, do you enter the price of the runners?
After all, a 100/1 chance winning from stall 1 would be more interesting than a 10/11 fav (to take things to an extreme). |
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I had sixty quids worth of speculative bets antepost which included 15 at 130-1 on Harzand, but connections did not seem all that optimistic following his Ballysax win. I’ve no idea what to expect from him but if he handles the track he must go well. It would be ok with me if he wins but after my exotics and the bet on US Army Ranger he won’t be my main hope.
Harzand has been backed down the past few hours because of the Racingpost NAP. I am in a similar position to u Howell though nowhere near those odds  . I'm on every AOB runner + MM + harzand. i'm not confident i'll win and should lay off my exchange bets but need some adrenline rush on saturday 4.30. |
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looks like Idaho is toms pick
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sinfin-
You can always find Pricewise tips here:- http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/tipster-table/tipsters/pricewise/23 |
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or somebody spoofing the market. Was 13k up @ 19.5 down to £500 now and small support behind.
If hes a 18s shot Shogun shouldnt be 55s |
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take that back its up on the site Madhus given
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sir tom has gone for idaho best 22/1 in morning, general 20s
billy going 6/1 WOD, 13/2 USAR, 9/1 COS, 9am Also 6 the field with magic sign questions wether WOD is quicker enough |
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I am on the usual suspects but this evening I have had a punt on Biodynamic at long odds . Forget his Chester run and he has place prospects.
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FYI all, looks like a clear night with no precipitation - am currently doing a raindance for Algometer
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fashion where does it say that thanks and if so is it in there shops
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hi sinfin those prices will be available from 9am in the shops usually for 15 mins
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temps well into the 20s tmrw and sunshine spells, by 4.30 could be good ground
rain looks like its coming after racing now |
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fashion thanks I b waiting for them then to open
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Slybet paying 5 places for those who can get on.
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Derby draw
Further up the thread I listed some work I did on analysis the draw from 1952 to 2015. The numbers were typed in quickly from form books and I checked for errors tonight. (checked that e.g. if 20 ran I had accounted for draw number 1 to 20). Most of the "errors" were horses given a starting position (tape start) / stall number (stalls start) but who didn't start or didn't finish (injury/sead). The final result is a -0.03 Pearson coefficient (see Excel) or in plain language, a very, very, very slight advantage to high numbers. A -0.30 or +0.30 would be an interesting draw advantage. Just to help you with pub quiz questions or to bore your relatives senseless here are the horses that were drawn in the Derby but didn't start or didn't finish the Derby. Year Epsom Derby: Did not start / Did not finish 1952 Marsyad (29) pulled up; Fiery Torch (30) didn't start 1960 Angers (6) pulled up 1962 Changing Times (14), Crossen (16), Hethersett (13), King Canute (19), Persian Fantasy (17), Pindaric (15), Romulus (11) all fell 1968 Unknown (4) didn't start? 1970 Unknown (8) didn't start? 1977 Night Before (7) pulled up 1979 Saracen Prince (22) left 1981 Lydian (18) didn't start 1984 Unknown (12) didn't start? 1992 Young Senor (15) didn't start 1996 Unknown (12) didn't start? 1997 Tanassa (12) didn't start 1999 Rhagaas; Tchaikovsky (9) (11) didn't start 2000 King's Best (1) didn't start 2002 Coshocton (6) dead 2005 Front Row (2) didn't start 2006 Horatio Nelson (16) dead 2007 Arabian Gulf; Eastern Anthem (1) (13) didn't start 2008 River Proud (4) didn't start |
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PeteTheBloke
kincsem - when you do your draw analysis, just out of interest, do you enter the price of the runners? Give me a break.  No.I've just typed 1,223 horses from 62 years into a spreadsheet, and then re-checked every one. I've used Racing Up To Date; Raceform; Bloodstock Breeders Review Annuals (very heavy), Racing Post website and more. I've seen photos of some years where the filed of horses are twenty yards up the course and some nag is sideways at the start looking into the bushes. |
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Corrected draw info 1952 to 2015
Draw Wins Horses % 1 5 62 8.1 .............. 2 1 62 1.6 3 3 62 4.8 4 5 62 8.1 ..... 5 6 62 9.7 ...... 6 3 62 4.8 7 2 62 3.2 8 4 62 6.5 9 3 62 4.8 10 9 61 14.8 ............ 11 0 61 0.0 12 1 61 1.6 13 2 53 3.8 14 3 51 5.9 15 3 45 6.7 16 1 43 2.3 17 3 40 7.5 18 2 35 5.7 19 1 30 3.3 20 3 26 11.5 .............. 21 0 23 0.0 22 1 20 5.0 23 1 14 7.1 24 0 11 0.0 25 0 11 0.0 26 0 7 0.0 27 0 4 0.0 28 0 2 0.0 29 0 1 0.0 30 0 1 0.0 31 0 1 0.0 32 0 1 0.0 If you look at Derby replays on Youtube you will see that the stalls are in units of 10. For a 16 runner race they fill from 1 to 10 into the first stall machine, then 11 to 16 in the next stall machine. Occasionally since stalls were introduced in 1967 they have used three stalls machines when the field was 21 runners or more. For some reason in a couple of years I could not find a runner for stall 12. Perhaps that stall was left empty / not allocated for some technical / mechanical reason. Lessons for the draw analysis. I think it is not chance alone why stalls 1 (8.1%), 10 (14.8%), 20 (11.5%) have high winning percentages. I think there is a reason why stalls 2 (1.6%), 11 (0.0%), 21 (0.0%) have low winning percentages Stalls 1 (horse can go left), 10 (horse can go right), 20 (horse can go rightt allow horses free room out of the stalls as the wheels of the stall machines leave room between 10 and 11, and between 20 and 21. The stall machines are central so stall 1 has room left. Stalls 2, 11, 21 are probably disadvantaged as the horses coming out of the stall mentioned above take their ground and shuffle them back. From 1986 to 2013 stall 10 won eight times in 28 years or 28.6%. Amazing. Stall 10 won 5 times in six years: 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990, 1991 From 1986 to 2013 stall 1 won once. From 1986 to 2013 stall 20 finished 4th and 5th from the only two fields of 20+ runners in that time) Also in that time period stall 10 was 5th, 10th, 11th, 15th (last), 20th (last), 6th, 8th, 6th, 3rd, 6th, 10th, 11th, 10th, 17th (last), 3rd, 2nd, 8th, 11th, n/a (only 9 runners), .... and in 2015 stall 10 was 2nd. 1967-1985 year by year (stalls used) data for 15 of 17 years Stall 10:- 14, 4, 8, 8, 17, 9, 2, 13, 3, 16, 1, 6, 2, no data, 5, no data, 8, 2, 7 Stall 20:- 7, n/a (less than 20 ran), 24, n/a, 4, 21, 8, n/a, n/a, 20, 5, 15, 18, no data, n/a, no data, 13, n/a, n/a Stall 1:- 16, 13 (last), 1, 7, 8, 1, 5, 3, 7, 22, 20, 23, 5, no data, 9, no data, 19, 17 (last), 13 1952-1966 year by year (tape start) data for 15 of 15 years Draw 10: did not win, but 2nd three times. Draw 20: won three times (23, 20, 22 runners), 2nd once Draw 1: won twice (17, 26 runners), 2nd once. The draw has imo little impact as the field are aiming to be in the best position (in the first 6 to 8 horses) at a point in the distance around half-way, six furlongs from the start and six furlongs from the finish. Draws 4 and 5 appear to do well with 11 wins between them but three of those wins were from 2005 onwards in small fields, 13, 12, 9 runner races. Improvement on the analysis could be: Analyse only from the stalls introduction in 1967 Find out if there have been changes in stall machines used and when Remove pacemakers and other no-hopers from the analysis My guess is people will look up who drawn in stall 10 in the Derby. |
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For me, the race revolves around Us Army Ranger and whether he can find the expected improvement that is very possible, Harzand has shown amazing and consistent improvement I very much respect him.I expect these two to be doing battle.
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The only battle Harzand will be in is the battle to keep up with the pace
No way he will be winning. |
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Backed and layed Shogun,gets me a round of drinks. Backed Cloth Of Stars a few weeks ago. Backed Massat today and had a little in the place market on all of them.
Uninspiring race this year for me and will not get rich or poor whatever happens. |
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Harzand dividing opinion here. I myself don't think he'll win as he seems to thrive in thick mud.
worth watching his debut mind (on good) at Gowran last year.....I think you may see a Derby winner in there though. Black Sea with the drying ground I'm hoping for a decent run from Shogun. Reading between the lines it would appear that Port Douglas will be asked to set the pace. |
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Harzand supposedly spread a plate according to Racing post breaking news
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Spread plate scare for Derby hope Harzand
By James burn 12:36PM 4 JUN 2016 INVESTEC DERBY contender Harzand, 8-1 generally for today's big race at Epsom, has spread a plate and having his foot iced, but trainer Dermot Weld is hopeful the horse will still be able to run. |
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Oh feck. He was my biggest winner in the book bailed out now
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must be 50/50 to run
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harzand only bet for me nrnb... disappointing this has happened so close to the race...i still hopes he runs the race needs him
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He should be odds against to run and short.
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at least it happened now and not down at the start...hate it when that happens.
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Bookies shortening Harzand right up incase it could be a rule 4. I think he will run.
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