Didn't say they were right

Selection Win or EW
Wings of Desire 4/1
Cloth Of Stars 13/2
Ulysses 7/1
Deauville 8/1
Harzand 12/1
Moonlight Magic 12/1
Port Douglas 12/1
Idaho 14/1
Massaat 16/1
Red Verdon 16/1
Across The Stars 25/1
Algometer 25/1
Humphrey Bogart 25/1
Shogun 25/1
Biodynamic 100/1

(You don't need to.  They're not)

Amended now

Which two were taken out?  I'm lazy.

In other news.
Steve Miller's Dosage analyis in the Weekender
1. Cloth Of Stars / Massaat
3. Ulysses

It is not often a tipster predicts a dead-heat.

Cant understand how he has massaat joint top

Massaat in guineas "Took keen hold, chased leaders, ridden to lead just over 2f out, driven and headed over 1f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong".
Keen in a fast run mile race.Youd expect Maassat to be very keen at 12f and weaken.

Anyone know the draw of last 10 winners?
Apologies for being lazy

there is no draw bias imo. just don;t pick anything from 1 or 2!

Looking at two of the fancied unexposed runners first, Cloth of Stars and Ulysses. I think the Derby comes as a bit of a culture shock for most French 3yos, having to prove their stamina in what is usually a fast run race when until now they've basically just been crawling then sprinting in their own backyard. Pour Moi, who I backed, was different as he'd already proved he could handle a Derby type pace. Maybe Cloth of Stars simply hasn't yet had the opportunity but I couldn't back him. I mentioned before that Ulysses wouldn't be the first winner to not have broken his maiden until his third start, as Oath had done the same, but even though Oath isn't regarded as a good Derby winner his Dee Stakes win was different class to the form Ulysses showed in his maiden. I thought those who finished behind him performed very poorly indeed and while he could still 'be anything' this is a big step up.

Of the more exposed runners there is Massaat, even though I have this year's Guineas as the worst in recent years I still have him ahead of everything else. However, he doesn't strike me as a horse that will show his best over this trip and I would be surprised if one or two others can't beat him. Wings of Desire has the best form of those likely to stay the trip well. I think his Dante win would be good enough to place in a moderate Derby. My problem with him is I think that's as good as he is, the way the race was run meant nothing was concealed and I don't see where the improvement could come from. I suppose this could turn out to be a poor Derby and that form might prove good enough but the other negative is he looked to have a fairly hard race and there's the possibility that was 'his Derby' that day.

Even though a lot of people seemed unimpressed I very much liked what I saw from US Army Ranger at Chester. The race was run very slowly for most of it, with Port Douglas being in the ideal position so he took some catching. In my view it's highly likely we would've seen a more impressive win from US Army Ranger if there had been a decent pace. I never place bets purely on stable comments, etc, but it's obvious that O'Brien firmly considers this horse the best of his runners and thinks he has a realistic chance of winning the Derby. Personally I believe it's easier for a yard to judge when they have a likely Derby winner than a likely Guineas winner. The fact they rate him far above Deauville yet that runner was able to run the Dante winner so close bodes well.

Obviously this involves some educated guesswork, it's possible he wouldn't have been much more impressive off a stronger pace, but at the price I think he's worth backing and he's my only bet.

Manning won from 3 on New Approach in 2008 when there was also 16 runners so should know what to do from 1.

New Approach not the most popular winner, obvs.

USAR has only run twice and a group 3 at Chester is a challenge for one so inexperienced.
He should though have been beaten had the second really tried - ie had been ridden more forcefully and had not been pulled out to allow USAR up the inside.

Idling is a positive way of saying that he would not go as fast as he could have or as fast as his jockey asked him to. He is probably green and inexperienced. He could though be a barker.

Can you really be sure that USAR will confirm that form on worse terms?

Figgis given the slow pace at Chester how do you account for the slow finishing sectionals as well?

I think that's as good as he is. His mother was a bit of a plodder. Galileo's most successful middle distance progeny tend to have some more speed injected into their mix.

St Leger horse for me.

Surely Godolphin will never have a better chance for a classic. They must be licking their lips.

Lewisham Ranger, personally I don't think the finishing sectionals were particularly slow for 3yos running over just further than 12f at this stage of the season. I know the theory that horses who finish fast could've gone faster early, and while I accept there's obviously some truth in that I believe it ain't necessarily so. Some horses are just more adept at sprinting for a short distance than others. While some very good horses are better at maintaining a decent pace throughout and are never going to produce exceptional splits.

gpz6316

I'm on UAR solely on his potential improvement post Cheater and trainer's high regard of him but Harzand is the one I fear most should the ground get much softer - the softer the better - as it will inconvenience the majority of the field. Also, the trainer of Harzand, Dermont Weld, was very unlucky with the injury suffered by Zawraq - one time 'fav' - prior to last year's Derby. Hopefully, a small bet on Harzand could alleviate the pain should it beat UAR.

We haven't even had a mild shock since High-Rise nearly 20 years ago.

We're well overdue a boil-over lads.  If it doesn't happen this year it will happen soon (but this year looks ready for it).

Cryoftruth, I meant to reply earlier to your comment on the ride given to the second in the Vase. I agree that he could've been given a harder ride and that on the face of it that could've meant him beating USAR but the way I saw it USAR always looked to have the upper hand. If Heffernan had been harder on his mount then Moore could've matched that and for me USAR would've still been highly likely to prevail. In the circumstances though I don't think that would've been any good for either horse's future prospects so I was on the side of the jockeys here.

I think you can safely rule out Moonlight Magic from stall 1, which is a shame as he looked to have a good form chance.

The Ballysax duo, Harzand & Idaho, look to have been drawn perfectly in 8 & 9, so would expect them to go close now.

I've gone through the form books.
Here are the Derby wins from each draw 1952 to 2015 (missing 1980; 1982)

Draw Wins Horses %
1    5    60    8.3
2    1    62    1.6
3    3    63    4.8
4    5    60    8.3
5    6    62    9.7
6    3    62    4.8
7    2    62    3.2
8    4    59    6.8
9    3    61    4.9
10    9    61    14.8
11    0    59    0.0
12    1    58    1.7
13    2    51    3.9
14    3    48    6.3
15    3    43    7.0
16    1    42    2.4
17    3    40    7.5
18    2    34    5.9
19    1    29    3.4
20    3    25    12.0
21    0    23    0.0
22    1    20    5.0
23    1    14    7.1
24    0    11    0.0
25    0    11    0.0
26    0    6    0.0
27    0    4    0.0
28    0    2    0.0
29    0    0    0.0
30    0    1    0.0
31    0    1    0.0
32    0    1    0.0

Stall were introduced in 1967.  Before that it was a tape start.
Obviously lower draws are favoured.  Stall 20 isn't going to supply a winner when there are only 12 starters.
Draw 10 is the best, but draw 11 is no good?  Small numbers give daft results.  Same with stalls 20 and 21.
Question: Why are there differences in the numbers e.g. 63 runners from stall 3, only 60 from stall 1.
Answer: I might have typing errors (no data checking done yet) or race returns a bit dodgy from earlier years.
Another thing to investigate: was draw 1 on the inside all years?

I have the draw position of all finishers and did a little analysis using the Pearson formula in Excel.
The average low draw "advantage" for the 62 years was 0.02, or in plain speaking, almost nil advantage.
Peason goes from 1.0 to -1.0 i.e. exact link between numbers to the opposite (e.g. predict finish 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 and they finish in that order is a 1.0 Pearson)

Field sizes
Ran    Years
0    2  ... missing
9    1
10    0
11    1
12    7
13    5
14    3
15    3
16    5
17    5
18    5
19    2
20    4
21    2
22    6
23    3
24    0
25    4
26    2
27    2
28    1
29    0
30    1
   
    64

Conclusion:  don't bother with the draw.

A few years ago, nick mordin came up with a system for finding the 2000 guineas winner, it was, ims, the word scope on the winners first ever run in a race form update race result comment. A solitary word that found a fair few 2000g winners. For the derby, he came up with the word quickened in one of that years derby winners previous post race write ups. Again, a simple system that has found a fair few winners. Quickened indicates class. This year, to my eyes, only 1 horse has the word quickened in any of it's post race write ups...ULYSSES.

At the time, this got me thinking about race readers and gallop watchers who put their analysis into national print. They are professional, totally unbiased and have seen horses look and do many things over the years, so when certain words like quickened pop up, it's worth noting.

Now, regarding the Newmarket work watcher, he gets to know the horses he watches. The ones that impress and the ones that don't. And tis with these 2 words that I based a system. Burst Clear..I first noticed this regarding a Stoute horse, Greek summat or other, I forget. Had the Burst Clear quote in a work out, and promptly dotted up at a decent price a few days later. This would indicate to me that the trainer is bringing the horse to fever pitch for its next start. In this weeks weekender, 2 have the Burst Clear quote....ULYSSES..... The second runs in the French derby...FOUNDATION... Just a bit of food for thought.

ACROSS THE STARS will win this Derby.

He's been brought along slowly but the Lingfield Derby trial will have made a man of him and in the end he was unlucky, staying every inch when the penny dropped.

Fallon will give him a really aggressive ride and make the most of his stamina and if he can take it up 3 out I don't see anything catching him in what is an average race.

Can see him stealing this and not being reeled in.