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Green Light came from the rear when winning the 12f handicap but the difference was the pace of that race compared to the Derby. Given the lower class, GL's run was at an even pace, he passed slowing horses and although visually it looked like a great turn of foot, it wasn't. The horse ran to a true even pace.
The Derby wasn't run any slower than the handicap to the straight but given that we are talking G1 class, the pace could have been stronger. Given that Harzand finished faster than Green Light by 1.54 secs(9l) over the final 2f, USAR needed to travel faster for further. He started making up ground once into the 3f straight, he covered the final 2f in 24.0 secs and just failed. From the path at TC to the line took USAR 41.0 secs. Harzand took 41.50 secs.At the path USAR was 0.75 behind Harzand at the line 0.25 secs.If we had Trakus figures we would know just how much further USAR travelled than Harzand as he came wider.On time he made up 0.5 secs (3lngth) but it looked more than that, more like 5/6 lngths. On balance, I would say that the evidence does NOT point to USAR shirking anything, he just gave his all but he was given a little too much to do. That's flat racing. I agree with Figgis that Dancing Brave's loss should have been a win. At the path he was 1.5 secs (9 lngths) behind Sharastani and finished in 38.7 secs compared to 40.2 for Shahrastani. That was a badly misjudged ride, whereas this year it was more marginal. Imo both horses require some cut to be seen at their best as does Idaho. On fast ground WOD might turn the form around but it won't happen unless the ground is good and they are all allowed to run. |
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Personally I don't take Idaho as one to follow from the race. I've read that he went too soon and could do even better in future but for me he was just another O'Brien horse that excelled above his normal level on Derby day, like At First Sight and others have done in the past. I'll be surprised if he cuts it at the top level.
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In any future races between Harzand and UAR, all things being equal, I think UAR must be closer to Harzand than he was at Epsom before UAR delivers his challenge. Otherwise, the result will most likely be the same given Harzand's ability to see out the 12f trip so well. Nevertheless, both horses ran exceedingly well.
Idaho ran above my expectation in the Derby; this time at least I'd a run for my money unlike his previous race when he was too far back to mount a serious challenge to Moonlight Magic when favourite. Whether Idaho will benefit more being held up longer than at the Derby or up in trip I'm none the wiser - I'll still back either UAR or Harzand over Idaho in a 12f or 14f race in the future, all things being equal. |
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Just an observation, Dancing Brave never won going left handed.
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DB had had a long hard season when going to America, also he apparently lost weight and suffered some dehydration on arrival, he ran well below his form. The Derby was obviously an ill judged ride where he performed with great credit under the circumstances. Despite having read it before many times the left handed observation is nothing more than coincidence, about as pertinent as saying he couldn't win when there was an 'n' in the month.
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Smullen sounds keen to run and from Weld's comments I'd expect him to run on anything but fast ground so even just the quick side of good ought to be okay. As O'Brien is unlikely to be against good ground for his horse I'd expect the Curragh to do everything they can to aim for it being as close to good as they can get.
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The fact remains.
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If DB did have a problem handling LH courses it would be because he had a problem changing from a right lead to a left lead. I've never heard any Starkey, Eddery, Harwood comment on this; surely they would have done if had been so. Most horses, like humans, favour one leg or the other but they are trained to use both legs like top footballers are trained to use both feet. In fact, to sustain top speed it is essential that they change leads because they will tire otherwise. Often when said to find another gear they have changed leads.
When winning the Arc DB was mostly on the left lead in the home straight so he had no problem then even though it was a right handed track. |
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In an ideal world what Sandown said is true, but in the real world it doesn't bear out. Right-handed horses can be taught to corner left-handed effectively enough, but are weak when askede to switch to a left-lead off a right-handed corner.
It depends on why the horse has a preference - sometimes it's literally from the spine being shaped crookedly - that's something you can't unlearn ! |
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There are lots of examples, but here is one that explains why some horses have to go one way or the other:
A horse's spine is curved clockwise (as you look from above, in the direction of travel), and the horse also has turned out nearside legs and a lot of nearside muscle (could be learned as a result of keeping straight) - so will in fact travel ok in a straight line, but only able to corner right-handed. |
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lots of horses have crooked spines, I'm sure humans do too .. but I can't say I've ever seen the variation in the human population in terms of conformational defects that are so regular in the thoroughbred world (maybe it's the closed book ..)
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Figgis 07 Jun 16 12:19 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 5,957 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
Personally I don't take Idaho as one to follow from the race. I've read that he went too soon and could do even better in future but for me he was just another O'Brien horse that excelled above his normal level on Derby day, like At First Sight and others have done in the past. I'll be surprised if he cuts it at the top level. I get the point you are making here Figgis but tbf to Idaho he has two pieces of form with Harzand now and on both occasions you can make reasonable arguments for him getting a little bit closer to him, Though Harzand is clearly the better horse. At First Sight was an unconsidered 150/1 and never achieved anything remotely like Idaho did before the Derby and I doubt Idaho will decline in the same way too. |
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his temperament is a concern though as he sweated up badly which suggests a horse that is stressed . he does have scope .the worry is he may become muleish
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Sint, At First Sight was probably not the best comparison I could've made, but there were others like Masterofthehorse and Astrology. That is just from the O'Brien yard but there have been plenty of other placed horses in the Derby that didn't do much afterwards at Gp1 level. From what I've seen of Idaho he just doesn't have the gears to be a genuine Gp1 horse and producing him for a later effort is unlikely to change that. To be honest I don't rate it great Derby form anyway. It wasn't amongst the poorer Derbys but I would only rate it medium level. I think both the winner and second will need to improve to win the better all age races later this year. Maybe one of those who finished behind could surprise me but I don't hold out much hope for them.
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That said - I wouldn't rule out some of the AO'B runners making a good effort in weaker (US Turf etc..) races than the KG / Arc / 10f championship races
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well below average derby. none of these will be winning Gr1 races against other generations
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