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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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The pace was fast early on but as metro john said it slowed markedly afterwards and much better to be in eighth place turning into the straight where Harzand was than last of sixteen where US Army Ranger ended up. Irrespective of the pace of the race, from what I saw of USAR previously he struck me more as a galloper than a hold up and sprint type and I doubt such tactics would show him at his best. I wasn't happy about the ride but I can't say I'm convinced USAR would've won anyway and probably Harzand was a worthy winner on the day. However, as for the future it's not always as simple as that. Dr Devious was a worthy winner over St Jovite but the form was comprehensively turned around in Ireland. Light Shift was a worthy winner from Peeping Fawn in her Oaks but that form was also turned around. It depends on which horse is more likely to go on from here and my money would still be on USAR, unless the Coolmore factor comes into play too much and there is no value.
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Come on Betfair - lets have an Irish Derby exchange market!
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Harzand ran a gutsy race and was a deserved winner and UAR also ran very well considering his adverse draw and position at the off. Should they meet again in the Irish Derby I think I'd like UAR on my side even on good/good to soft going.
If Harzand meets Minding in the Arc - Found unlikely to go now I think post the defeat by Postponed/2nd string and UAR too inexperienced and babyish to be considered - it could be a very interesting race with Postponed in the field. O/T I thought the comments of the owner of Postponed when interviewed was unnecessary, unjustified and disrespectful to Cumani who does not rush his horses or over race them, and a brilliant trainer. |
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Madhu
I thought they did odds or evens, one of the two first, then the other over here kincsem? As far as I know the stalls handlers fill the stalls odds first (e.g 1,3,5,7,9,11). Then they get the 2,4,6,8,10,12 to go in the stalls. What I am talking about is how many do they put in each of the two stalls machines. Typically there is a number card in a slot above each stall. I do not know who decides where to place these numbers, probably the starter. If there are 12 runners and 20 stalls (two machines of 10) then someone decides where to put the 1 to 12 number cards. For example, if there were twelve runners in the Derby they would put ten horses in the stalls nearest the inner rail and two in the far stalls. This meant a bunch of ten crossing over the group of two and effectively forcing the two to take evasive action and shuffle back.. This imo gave the horse drawn 10 the right hand (outside) rail as the field made the slight right turn after about two furlongs. As the field then crossed the course to take the long left turn down to Tattenham corner the horses drawn about 1 to 6 are still on the left or behind and get squeezed/trail. In the last few years, starting with 2011, they don't fill the inner rail stalls with ten horses, 1 to 10. Now If they have a field of 12 they put might 6 in the inner rail stall and 6 in the outside stalls. For some reason in 2014 they went back to 10 in inner stalls, 2 in outer. But in 2015 they went 7 inner, 5 outer. Horses are herd animals and run in a group. What I think would be the safest for the horses and jockeys, and fairest for punters would be .... .... if you have a field of 12 (or any size) put 10 in the outside stalls near the outside rail of the course (draws 3 to 12), and two in the inner rail stalls (draws 1 and 2). The horses are heading for the outside rail first. Put the horses near that rail. |
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Money Tree cost me thousands!! 04 Jun 16 11:25 Joined: 09 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 12,514 | Blogger: Money Tree cost me thousands!!'s blog
The only battle Harzand will be in is the battle to keep up with the pace No way he will be winning. 2nd only to Ali as the greatest of all time |
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Howellsy 03 Jun 16 18:45 Joined: 17 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 688 | Blogger: Howellsy's blog For me, this Derby is all about projected improvement. I’ve done some arguably educated guesswork and come up with these theoretical projections: 122 US Army Ranger 120 Harzand 116 Idaho awesome |
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Well done Howellsy
Racing Post Weekender "Ulysses won’t yield" – Alistair Whitehouse [Ulysses] "Magic Stars" – Paul Kealy [Moonlight Magic] "Desire can rise to the Classic test judged on Dante performance" – Dave Edwards [Wings Of Desire] "Moonlight breeding suggests he has the requited magic" – Chril Hill [ Moonlight Magic] "Stamina doubts don’t tell full story over Massaat" – Steve Miller [Massaat] "Epsom looks tailor-made for progressive Cloth Of Stars" – Stuart Redding Cloth Of Stars] "Guineas form all points to Massaat" – Key Trends – Alistair Whitehouse Jones [Massaat] "Harzand can thwart O’Brien ace and land Derby Prize" – Cathal Gahan [Harzand] Around the training centres "Burrows’ Massaat the forgotten Derby horse" – Lambourn: James Burn [Massaat] "Ulysses might take plenty of stopping" – Newmarket: David Milnes [Ulysses] |
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Cheers guys - I'm fairly proud of myself in theory but as I've already acknowledged, I ultimately failed to perm all three in tricasts, which in hindsight seems a shocking decision being as I had the three clear. All I can say is I went for the 30k win on two perms rather than the 16k win on all 6 perms at half stakes. It was the plan all week and for most of the week I expected at least twice that dividend but Harzand and Idaho shortened considerably. One lives and learns but it's only natural to wonder whether I'll ever have that chance again in the great race. My eventual profit on the race was risible in view of the time (and insight as it turned out)involved.
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10p combination f/c and tricast on Harzand, Idaho, Port Douglas and Us Army Ranger: I know it only paid £28 and £324 respectively, but not bad for a fun bet.
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i find it very interesting that no one that i can see has questioned US Army Rangers attitude, considering moore was only really going for the full out drive just outside the furlong and just when he got upside the winner, he seemed to back out of it very quickly in my book...
i know the winner stayed on well and just kept finding but usar found little under the maximum drive and although moores ride has been critized and i can see why considering where he came from, he did however sit out of the early pace and settled lovely one off the rail, whereas the winner was rousted for an early position... anyway i just thought he found little when he looked certain to pick the winner quite easily, it is to early to start calling him names but in my book that is twice he has found little off the bridle, the irish derby will tell us more |
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With Free Eagle, Fascinating Rock and now Harzand - Dermot Weld's first English
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Group 1 winners (bar the Gold Cup) since 2003 when he was dominant worldwide - there's plenty of evidence of an uptick in stable form at these distances
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I don't know if it's the horses, or the training, but it's a virtuous circle the Aga Khan had cottoned on a few years back already, and can only continue to improve.
I must admit I didn't think Harzand had the scope to improve being a Weld horse vs the AO'B ones. Hats off to the man, won't be caught again |
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I've read some pieces questioning USAR's attitude elsewhere but I can't agree on the evidence so far. Due to where Moore had him positioned he was 'off the bridle' for the last 3 furlongs and obviously found plenty as he ran quicker than everything else for that section of the race.
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The winner found plenty and stays every yard and more - best horse on the day won simple as that.
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Epsom kicks up violently in the last 170 yards. Given Harzand had a much cleaner race than USAR from an energy-distribution perspective and he's a strong stayer who potentially has the Leger on his agenda, I don't think we should worry about USAR's attitude at the moment. I'd argue he showed loads of bottle to get into a challenging position and chase the winner hard up the straight. Yes he was cooked in the last 100 yds. Who could blame him?
Of course he could go either way from this race but for me he did nothing wrong at the finish on Saturday. Tough crowd!  |
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figgis how can you say that when he only hooked him to the outside just outside the 2 pole and he had sat out of the heat of the race until that point
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Harry, watch it again, Moore rides him up a couple of horses backsides first just before the 3 pole, he pulls him wide shortly afterwards, well before the 2f pole.
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I'd argue he showed loads of bottle to get into a challenging position and chase the winner hard up the straight.
I'd argue headmaster he is a classy colt and his class got him where he finished, nothing to do with with his bottle, bottle is what he did not show when lugging in behind the winner as soon as he got the eye ball  |
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I've said this before but it still puzzles me that all horses that find little off the bridle (and I wouldn't even put USAR in that bracket anyway as his sectionals testify just the opposite) are classed as rogues or shirkers. Some horses just give their all immediately when asked for an effort then have nothing left later. It could even be argued that some who find more have been saving a bit for themselves.
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i don't disagree he didn't get a perfect run figgis but the winner had slight problems of his own if you watch carefully...
don't get me wrong in all this... i am not saying he didn't get a perfect trip but i would argue it was by design judging by the stable mates pace up front and apart from like you say at the 3 pole, he did sit out of the heat of the battle before picking up nicely from the 2 pole but he did go 1.3 in running and i was on the winner and i thought he was going to pick him up easy but personally i didn't think he fancied it or he certainly didn't find in my book and if i had been on the ranger i would of been a tad disappointed did you think he was going to pick him up figgis?? |
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USAR went up in everyone's estimation after the Derby surely?! If anything, I thought he was the one to take from the race going forwards ...
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i don't disagree sint i was just interested why his attitude wasn't questioned
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I usually come up with an opinion after several viewings of a race but I'm finding this one hard. US Army Ranger ran a creditable race for a colt on just his third start after a small field trial where he effectively saw only one or two horses all race, whereas Harzand had a really good, competitive test against the high class Idaho. In theory USAR is entitled to improve more than Harzand with one start in hand but who knows how much the Derby takes out of a colt especially in a losing cause. Given even money the pair in a match race at the Curragh on good ground I'd go for Harzand. But it won't be a match race and I'll certainly be tempted to back USAR with any significant price discrepancy between the two.
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Harry, after only a few furlongs I was muttering to myself wtf is Moore doing here. Yes I know the horse was very relaxed (a good thing in my view) but there's such a thing as a jockey being proactive instead of letting the race evolve around him, particularly in a race like the Derby and especially when you think your horse has more tactical speed than most of the opposition. At Tattenham Corner I honestly thought he had no chance from that position, partly because they's slowed right down midrace but mainly because I didn't see him as a late burst Dancing Brave type who also had the speed for a mile. Even when he started to pick up I thought he's probably be placed at best. I was happily surprised to see him make up so much ground so quickly though and, like you, when he got within touching distance of the winner I thought he was going to pass him.
Obviously it was disappointing that he didn't but I didn't see any shirking from him, it just looked to me that he had no more to give. I think Harzand would probably have won anyway so, unlike Dancing Brave, I'm not saying the ride necessarily cost him the race. Nonetheless it wasn't a good ride, I don't think he's a horse who's going to show his best coming with a late swooping run from the rear and I doubt he'll be ridden like that again. None of us know how any of them will come out of the race, maybe that effort took a lot out of USAR but at this stage I still see him as the better future prospect. |
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Hitting the s key instead of the r during that, * they'd slowed right down, * he'd probably be placed.
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I inadvertently posted this on another topic-
I wonder what the late talented Greville Starkey would have to say on the matter of US Army Ranger's running? There is no doubt in my mind that other than through inexperience on the horses part, he was never given the opportunity throw his dice truly; for Harzand everything was in his favour and the brilliant jockeymanship of his rider allowed him to shine on the day. I think both horses will prove they are genuinely top-class in time. I feel for Ryan Moore also because he alone will know if he blew it. |
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I think Moore was victim to the draw tbf. The draw bias at Epsom when there is a big field, particularly in the Derby, is borne out again and again. Harzand and Idaho had perfect draws.
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Someone said Jamie Spencer would of won on the colt- that made me think of comparisons also,
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Tbh, I don't think postponed would have anything to fear from this years derby field. A lot is said of Moores ride, but what about Atzeni on Ulysses...gave him a shocker trying to go up the inside, where he was blocked at least twice. Rose of Lancaster, back over 10f at Haydock would be his best option.
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fair enough and i think your probably right he certainly looks the quicker horse, harzand is much more a grinding type who i doubt will get a decent pace to run at like that very often, harzand is a likeable horse who will probably need that ground to blunt others speed in future but i would of thought dermot weld will see that and have a pace maker wherever he goes, i'm still not entirely satisfied with the class of the race although the right horses came to the fore, i just thought the race collapsed a tad, that's why i wasn't overly hard on moore as they seemed to be very tired but can see your annoyance
the irish derby will be interesting on good ground howellsy i still can't figure this race out either but i'm pretty strong on the fact i didn't actually think harzand liked the track, he never looked that comfortable to me i could be wrong but he could be a lot better than the bare result although he doesn't look to have much pace |
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Harry, well you never know. When Lammtarra won his Derby I didn't think he'd be that year's Arc winner and I didn't think Sinndar was going to be as good as he showed later. Harzand might surprise us both.
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i hope he does figgis and if i'm right about the track, he could be a whole lot better than the bare result, he just looks a grinder but back on more conventional track he might stride out better, we will see...i see he is 6/4 against 7/4 usar for the irish derby...i think on better ground usar will be a lot shorter and we may just see a bit of value on harzand come the day...much to ponder
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it still sickens me that pentire wouldn't go by lammtarra, thought pentire was a certainty that day against that slow boat
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if it's faster than good at The Curragh, I doubt Harzand will run.
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Harzand, as has been mentioned elsewhere, was clearly the best horse on the day - when he had seen off Idaho and USAR came he found again for pressure - that's real class.
As for USAR getting a bad trip - imo, there are only a few golden rules about running 1m4 around Epsom, 1) Get settled up the hill 2) Keep cool around Tatt 3) Never go too soon, that hill is a killer. Splitting hairs whether if say Idaho and USAR had swapped trips - if anything Idaho actually went too soon |
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Settle,travel,quicken and battle thats what you want from a racehorse.Harzand exhibited the last quality a little better on the day.
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there are only a few golden rules about running 1m4 around Epsom,
1) Get settled up the hill 2) Keep cool around Tatt 3) Never go too soon, that hill is a killer. They didn't work out for Dancing Brave. |