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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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confirmed runner
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As is the case money is beginning to come in for UAR similar to previous years and Minding yesterday when connections have a tilt at the market.
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I still have some concerns about the ground for WOD but he looks so well and he has the best form for me that I have gone back in for him to small money and had some on USAR who has scope for big improvement. Negatives for everything else and its a very competitive race so no more than hopeful, unlike yesterday.
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UAR at 5.1 here - colossal money for this horse.
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And Harzand at 9.
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boom u fking beauty
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Get in
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unclepuncle 30 May 16 13:22
Plenty of rain forecast on Tuesday, then showers and drizzle Wednesday, and possibly the odd spot on Thursday too, and dull and cool all week so if it does go a bit softer it won't dry up that quickly. With that in mind I have taken a chance on Harzand at 32 on here - probably be a non runner but will surely be about 10/1 if he runs. Not too shabby, and my long range antepost fancy Idaho ran well too.  |
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Well done winners, great shout Howellsy on your projected ratings
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Cheers Bobbyjo but anti climax for me. I needed USAR to get up for a 32 grand tricast. It looked on for a few strides. I suppose I should have done some reverses. Oh well a profit on the race at least.
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Well done winners.
And thanks kincsem - I suppose it would be a bit of a task - didn't think it through |
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Unlucky Howellsy. I backed the first three ante post and like a mug didn't do a tricast.
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Jamie Spencer would've won on USAR ;-)
Thought the front two ran tremendous Arc trials there.....hopefully they'll square off a few more times this season and it'll take a good one to topple them if they both make it to France. Can't see Postponed given them weight in the King George. Thought class really came to the fore. I imagine Idaho will go globe trotting like Highland Reel now....early Cox Plate ap bet. |
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Not a good Derby for me. My main bet Moonlight Magic finished last.
I place laid five horses and none placed which was some consolation. The draw analysis of past years that suggested stall 10 has been destroyed. Today they put 8 horses in the first stalls machine, and 8 in the second stalls machine (field was 16). I think previously they would have put 10 in the first machine and 6 in the second. That meant draw 8 (Idaho finished 3rd) was in the ideal spot today. |
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Not Moore's finest ride and even though I'm a fan of him in general I prefer the Piggott method of riding the Derby, being handy at Tattenham Corner. Admittedly Moore has ridden two Derby winners in similar style from the rear before in Workforce and Ruler of the World, but they ended up having very hard races and both horses put up pretty lifeless displays on their very next starts.
Probably Harzand was a worthy winner anyway as he was going away again at the finish but it's impossible to know how much the effort USAR put in to get so close took out of him. Possibly if he'd have been ridden closer early he would've used up just as much energy and still would've been wanting at the finish. Whatever the truth it was a nice run for such an inexperienced horse and I still like him for the future. Well done Howellsy (hard luck on the tricast) and other backers. |
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Well the pricked foot hurt me more than Harzand
 and wiped a grand off the profit |
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Good day for me apart from Maljaa
Joined: 23 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 93 | Blogger: Killie Sunt's blog Don't usually bet much AP other than Cheltenham, but have done 5 in the Derby and amazingly all are still in (for now) All small stakes Ulysses 28 Port Douglas 34 Massaat 29 Harzand 150 Algometer 170 I also did trebles fours and an accy on the following Epsom Derby 2016 Harzand - 21 Epsom Dash Maljaa - 11 Yorkshire Cup Clever Cookie - 7 -- -- Won Lockinge Stakes Belardo - 13 -- -- Won Epsom Oaks 2016 So Mi Dar - 6 N/R |
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Moore's effort on USAR was deja vu - just like Dancing Brave and Shahrastani but Moore is better than Greville Starkey although yesterday 's ride on Minding and today's on USAR were not his best. WOD will be much better on fast ground whilst USAR should improve again although his action does look best suited to soft ground.
The winner is all over a stayer and looks like he too will be best on soft ground so perhaps both horses will meet again in the Arc. Would Minding have won today? Don't know about that but I'd fancy her receiving weight from the colts over 10f. |
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Yep, well done winners - I share the Moonlight Magic pain (though I can't help wondering if some of the Bolger horses are sick given MM went out like a light and Turret Rocks ran deplorably yesterday).
The way Harzand saw it out when challenged by USAR and his obvious liking for a bit of cut make me wonder if they might look at St Leger later in the year? |
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I've never been so delighted to lose €101.41 It could have been a loss of €1,200.
A large rum and coke for me |
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Oh yes wd winners , happy days
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too big a thread to trawl through the pages but a couple of weeks ago i got involved with it and settled on idaho . somebody then pointed out to me harzand and from then i was convinced so thank you to the poster whom made me remember the ballsax as i overlooked it .you saw it and i knew you were right .
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Derby draw warning
I noticed this year, 2016, they loaded 8 in stall machine 1, and 8 in stall machine 2. The horse in the best draw therefore was stall 8. I'm posting this to warn people against backing stall 10 blindly. Stall 10 produced a lot of winners in the past when the field was 15+ runners. In recent years the Derby fields have been smaller (average for last seven years was 12 runners.) There is a draw for stall places, but they have been freestyling it a bit recently as to where a drawn horse is placed. For example, a horse draw 8 in a field of 12 could be in stall machine 1, or in stall machine 2. In the two banks of stalls they have in recent years done this: Stalls machine 1 / Stalls machine 2: 2015: 7+5 ..... 2014: 10+2 ..... 2013: 6+6 ..... 2012: 9 only ran ..... 2011: 6+7 ..... 2010: 10+2 ..... 2009: 10+2 I haven't looked at videos for 2008 and earlier. This is some info on the famous stall 10 draw. It produced many winners. Many of the abysmal failures for stall 10 were big outsiders. 1986 WIN - STALL 10 1987 WIN - STALL 10 1988 Maksud 200/1 - 13th/14 1989 WIN - STALL 10 1990 WIN - STALL 10 1991 WIN - STALL 10 1992 Twist And Turn 12/1 - 5th/19 1993 Tenby 4/5 fav - 10th/16 1994 Ionio 50/1 - 11th/25 1995 Maralingo 200/1 -15th/15 1996 Portuguese Lil 500/1 20th/20 1997 Fahris 12/1 -6th/14 1998 Second Empire 5/1 - 8th/14 1999 Glamis 40/1 6th/18 2000 Beat Hollow 3/1jf - 3rd/16 2001 WIN - STALL 10 2002 Where Or When 66/1 - 6th/12 2003 Shield 20/1 - 10th/20 2004 Massif Centrale 100/1 - 11th/14 2005 Oratorio 8/1 - 10th/14 2006 WIN - STALL 10 2007 Archipenko 13/2 - 19th/19 2008 Casual Conquest - 3rd/17 2009 Fame And Glory - 2nd/12 (stall 1=10 loaded, stall 2=2 loaded) 2010 Stall 10, Buzzword 40/1 8th/12 (stall 1=10 loaded, stall 2=2 loaded) 2011 Stall 6, Memphis Tennessee 4th/13 (stall 1=6 loaded, stall 2=7 loaded) 2012 n/a …. only 9 runners 2013 Stall 6, Galileo Rock 3rd/12 (stall 1=6 loaded, stall 2=6 loaded) 2014 Stall 10, Our Channell 50/1 13th/16 (stall 1=10 loaded, stall 2=6 loaded) 2015 Stall 7, Storm The Stars 3rd/12 (stall 1=7 loaded, stall 2=5 loaded) 2016 Stall 8, Idaho 3rd/16 (stall 1=8 loaded, stall 2=8 loaded) |
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its lordnoise on page ten ty
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Glad if I've helped gpz (my Mum told me I'd be famous but I'm not sure she had this in mind
) Well done to Impos123 for starting what turned into an informative and even tempered thread - looking forward to more in the future. |
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I'm back from Epsom and Harzand did the business but I would of preferred an AoB runner to win as that would of netted me hundreds instead of enough to buy a family dosa meal. The general consensus near the lonsdale stand is that if Ryoore had rode UAR with more confidence it would have won for sure, but instead he wasted all the energy going wide and was given too much to do from the wilderness. Moore yesterday the hero, today, the villan. That's racing!
Just a lot of love and respect respect to the fella who backed Harzand at 125s and to kinscem for all the long tedious hours put into research for this race. |
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thanks again .
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ffs
When the 2016 Derby draw was announced someone on the forum said draw 1 has no chance (Moonlight Magic). Moonlight Magic finished last in 2016 so he may have had a point. I had it in my head for years that the draw has no effect in the Derby, so I decided to test his assertion. After inputting the draw and finishing position of every runner from 1952 to 2015 into a spreadsheet I found no draw bias. When reviewing the spreadsheet I noticed draw 10 and 20 combined produced 12 winners, but draw 11 and 21 combined produced zero winners. All of the 9 wins from draw 10 are since starting stalls were introduced in the Derby in 1967. (there was always a draw for starting position in the tape start days) Did the introduction of starting stall that gave runners drawn in stall 10 a massive advantage? There were 9 wins from draw 10 in the 35 years from 1977 to 2013 from an average field of 16.5. (I don't have data for two years) 589 runners in those 35 years: drawn 10 produced 9 winners from 35 runners (25.7%); the other stalls produced 26 winners from 554 runners (4.6%). The reason draw 10 and 20 are different is they are the furthest right stall on the stalls machines. When a horse exits stall 10 (and stall 20 if there are 20+ runners) he exits into the free space in from of his stall and in front of the wheels that transport the stalls i.e. he has a double space. Horses out of stalls 10 (and 20) will naturally go for the free space i.e. go right, and the jockey will also be keen to go right as the first slight bend if on the right. This movement probably does two things (1) give stalls 10 (and 20) an easier stalls exit (2) blocks off the horse in stall 11 (and 21). Unfortunately, this "system" has stopped working as Derby field have got smaller, now averaging 12. With only 12 runners they still need two stalls machines (each holds ten horses), but the course management (clerk of course, handlers) now tend to put half the field in one set of stall and half in another. In other words they do not fill the stalls as in earlier years with stall 1 at the very left of the first stall machine filled first. Of course the horse in stall 10 does not automatically win. Among those drawn in stall 10 who failed were: 1988 Maksud 200/1 1993 Tenby 4/5 fav 1994 Ionio 50/1 1995 Maralingo 200/1 1996 Portuguese Lil 500/1 1999 Glamis 40/1 2002 Where Or When 66/1 2004 Massif Centrale 100/1 Stall 10: 9 winners from 35 runners 1977 to 2013. Remove 1 winner (2013) as stall 10 had no advantage that year. That leaves 8 winners from 35 years Takeaway the above "no hopers" (sorry Tenby) That leaves 8 winners from 27 years where the horse in stall 10 was a goer = 29.6% win rate It might just be luck of the draw, a statistical anomaly, small numbers producing odd results. (The 2016 Kentucky Derby had 20 starters:- 14 in stall machine 1; and 6 in stall machine 2.) (The 2013 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe had 17 starters:- 14 in stall machine 1; 3 in stall machine 2) Does that answer your question? |
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ffs
When the 2016 Derby draw was announced someone on the forum said draw 1 has no chance (Moonlight Magic). Moonlight Magic finished last in 2016 so he may have had a point. sorry kinscem that was me. |
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surprised you didn't back harzand kinscem. It had massive balance issues pre race, but all of those issues were offset by the rain.
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Moonlight Magic backer who knew a long way out that my bet was toast. Harzand was a very commendable winner and well done to his clued-up faithful backers. Great thread.
No horse behind him looks like turning around that in the Irish version, given ground conditions to suit the winner. And Idaho is running for 2nd in the St Leger to me unless it is really fast, and Moonlight Magic is no St Jovite. 5 lenghts clear of the rest, with 4th and 5th good markers, looks like a rating in the mid-120’s to me, although I want to see the fractions. The 111 rated Port Douglas was after all the hare. Almost the entire field looked badly out-classed and as usual, well strung-out. At no time did I see Harzand’s head raised to gasp air under pressure; in fact it went lower on numerous occasions leading me to believe he was still able to take in huge breaths and won comfortably and convincingly. He’s all heart. World-class is Pat Smullen and Dermot Weld, and their staff, and Jim Reilly, Jim Bolger's gifted farrier. Among other things I am in the sport’s medicine field, and am highly impressed by Epsom’s first-class British veterinary support. USAR had a dreadful positioning and finish in the straight that is analogous to Dancing Brave. I will find it hard having to read about a less critical analysis of Ryan Moore’s ride when compared to the humorous dog-barking Greville Starkey’s (RIP) in relation to being unlucky/responsibility, as I was a big fan of Greville Starkey. This is true though- RM- "He ran great but was a bit inexperienced." We are all wise nodders after the event. This year’s 3yo colts are all about potential, and I think they might turn out quite good as a generation after all. There is one overriding question I do have - did Wings of Desire’s ‘centre of gravity’ have anything to do with his defeat as someone had intimated: cannot get my head around that tripe. I think breeding class let him down; USAR went by him as he was standing still. Pivotal will never sire a genuine blue- ribbon 12f Group 1 colt. Respectfully, pie in the sky unfortunately. Sea The Stars, Cape Cross — Urban Sea, half-brother to Galileo, there is no need for rocket science, we are witnessing an evolution of sires from sires. For what it’s worth, I looked around and did some quick research on the etymology of ‘Harzand’, the name chosen by His Highness Prince Shah Karim Al Hussaini, Aga Khan IV. As the old saying goes, he has the name of a Derby winner. Humphrey Bogart? Biodynamic? You are having a laugh! Harzandi dialect is an ancient dialect of the Old Azeri language; an extinct Iranian language that was once spoken in Iranian Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan, and is a southern Tati variety spoken by peoples around the primeval city of Takestan; Takestan literally means 'place of vine-yards'. |
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Unbelievable as it might sound, I've spent the last hour fighting the cause of horses drawn 11 in the Derby.
I wanted to know why they did so badly. I though it was the nasty horse in stall 10 that barged him or tripped him up. I listed info on all the stall 11 runners from 1988 to 2010 into Microsoft Word: Year; Horse; finish; number of starters; odds, in-running comments. In those 23 years the usual comment was something like "always towards rear" or "held up". In 2006 Dragon Dancer who "pressed leader" was the exception and he finished second. I looked at the 2006 race on Youtube. Dragon Dancer shoots to the front of his group straight out of the stalls, and is at the front as the left side group (stalls 1 to 10) come over to the right rail. Looking at replays it looks like e.g. with 15 runners, the ten horses drawn 1 to 10 run straight as a group for a short distance and then move across to the right rail as a group. A group of ten will probably move more quickly that a group of five, and certainly will if they want to cut across. They cut off the smaller group of five from the other stalls machine, and the horse the group of ten ploughs into first is the stall 11 horse, who does the sensible thing and gives way. |
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Fwiw the intelligent Americans split the 20 runners in the 2016 Kentucky Derby like this:
they put 14 horses in the stalls machine on the inside rails they put the other 6 horses in the outer stal0sl machine. That way 14 horses will soon be on the rail and the small group of 6 can join them. In the UK they would do it the other way They would probably put the 6 horses in the stall near the rail and have the other 14 horses in the outside stalls The result would be (and is) a large group of horses meeting a small group of horses. |
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I thought they did odds or evens, one of the two first, then the other over here kincsem?
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Good ride on US Army Ranger. Held up at the back off a very strong gallop, but beaten by a stronger stayer in the end. Would much rather have been where he was than where Cloth of Stars was. Would have had to have been better than his dad to have won from that close to the pace.
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Yep given the conditions pace way too hot up front set by Port Douglas even Cloth Of Stars who looked to be travelling well coming into the straight went out like a light.
Harzand a worthy winner but US Army Ranger ran a stormer still showing signs of inexperience/greeness. A wonderfull Derby to trade given all the price fluctuation/anomalies/arbs . |
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And in other news, Dosage guy's three against the field finished 8th, 9th & 12th.
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Would be great if the front 3 meet again in the Irish Derby though obviously Harzand would only run if it's good or softer. If they did all show up then the media focus will be totally on Harzand and UAR and so I would actually be keen to back Idaho e/w if he is ignored by the market.
Irrespective of the Irish Derby I doubt they will aim Harzand at the Leger - given his connections much more likely to be saved for the Arc in the hope of soft ground. Can't see any of them going for the King George and taking on Postponed unless the weather plays havoc with running plans. Maybe Wings Of Desire would go for the King George, though I expect the Eclipse will be his next target. |