We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1256 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,256
|
By:
Sandown - Given he's by Pivotal and a full brother to Eagle Top I'd have thought softer going and a mile and a half would be right up WOD's street?
|
|
By:
uncle puncle my thoughts exactly
if hes 5/1 sat morming will be biggest bet of the year cant see how deauville can possibly turn over form surley WOD beats him further over the extra 2f will add its **** derby |
|
By:
uncle puncle
You may be right but he is not a typical Pivotal is he? He stays 12f for one so he looks like taking after his dam. Secondly, look closely at his action at York and tell me that isn't a fast ground action. The ground was definately on the fast side of good if not g/f that day.(given officially as g/f). Plus at Epsom last week his less than verhwelming trial may have been due to the soft ground that day. When we don't know anything then the sire and or dam records may be useful. When we have actual data that record becomes less important. |
|
By:
Well you will be having your biggest bet of the year then Fashion will be surprised if most dont go @ least 5s the field and more in places to drag in the punters.
The books will be sniffing getting a result. |
|
By:
Ulysses starting to drift a bit.
Could be 6/1 field come Saturday |
|
By:
Really looking forward to this - just hope I can stay off the alcohol enough and still be awake at 5.00pm (I normally go to bed straight after Channel 4 racing to sleep it off
 )Can see Deauville and Moonlight Magic racing handy and kicking for home a fair way out (Benny The Dip style?). I'd expect UAR, Massaat and Ulysses to be ridden in mid-div and try to come there cruising at the 2 pole. WOD, Idaho and Harzand likely to be a long way back at the 4f pole and being scrubbed along but they will stay very well. So much can change in the last furlong or so at Epsom - something about the camber means horses coming late on the outside can really pick up speed and from being many lengths back with 150 yards they go to winning virtually on the bridle like Erhaab, Pour Moi, Lammtara etc - or just failing to get up like Dancing Brave and Silver Patriarch. |
|
By:
In running market will be interesting.
|
|
By:
Sandown re WOD's Epsom trial, hasn't Gosden said all along he isn't what you'd call a great worker, but workmanlike? He was shoved along a long way out when he won at Wolves against a moderate field (won doing handsprings at the line though). Don't think he's ever going to float like a butterfly and sting like a bee either on the gallops or the track. I'm not sure what people expected to see him do in the trial, they're weren't going to get after him proper like in a race.
As for the going, obviously an unknown, but breeding indicates it shouldn't be a problem if good to soft or even soft. Apparently the Wolves polytrack surface is "a faster surface than the fibresand of Southwell, but slightly slower than the similar polytrack surfaces of Lingfield and Kempton". Hard to equate to turf going with confidence, but that WOD has won on two surface types is a positive imo. |
|
By:
Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk 38m
Up to 5mm rain today @EpsomRacecourse. Will call ground Soft, Good to Soft in places. 5.9 @TurfTrax stick (from 6.1). Mainly dry from Thurs. |
|
By:
g/s at worst then for sat,probably good
|
|
By:
JK
but breeding indicates it shouldn't be a problem When you don't know anything you look at the sire/dams records. When you know something because you have direct evidence, that becomes more important. What you are saying amounts to saying you'll give more weight to what might be rather than what is. No sense in that. Once you have visual evidence, solid form evidence, that outweighs indirect conclusions drawn from stats.At least it should. Look, I am strong on WOD, or at least I was. He improved significantly at York. Was it the trip? Well he previously ran over 12f and he was running on at York. So, what about the ground? If he has his best form on g/f you can't conclude that her will therefore run to the same level on soft.Very few horses can run as well on either extreme. Especially when to my eye his action is that of a top of the ground horse. The Epsom evidence also points that way, doesn't it? The polytrack run is neither here nor there. |
|
By:
Any particular reason why it's Jamie on USAR and not SH or CD?
If Jamie is on board then surely that would mean the horse isn't even 2nd choice for them which is slightly odd...if he's that far down the pecking order then save him for another day. |
|
By:
Oaks
Place lay: Architecture 3.35 Win: Minding: 2.60; Lay: Minding: 1.75 Win: Skiffle: 8.29 Derby Place lays: Wings Of Desire 3.00; Ulysses 3.60; Deauville 4.80; Massaat 5.00; The Gurkha 3.50. Win: Moonlight Magic 14.77; Idaho 32.00; Abdon; Sky Kingdom. Oaks & Derby double: Skiffle and Moonlight Magic |
|
By:
Unless Jamie is confirmed by connections as the jockey for UAR which they have not despite it's almost 24hrs since twitter rumour I think it's bunkum than truth, why? UAR is the best bred in their Derby team, and no outside jockey will be given the ride - it's that simple!
I'd expect the price of UAR to contract from the present and probably share favouritism on race day or be sole 'fav' if their business associates and City friends eg McManus, Smurfit, etc, take an interest like they'd done in the past. I think reality has set in for Ulysses or his early backers balancing their books or cashing out. Now, I'm astounded Deauville is being backed so strongly as he's a horse that prefers good ground and very possibly less than 12f hence AOB's preference for the French Derby; if Harzand is confirmed tomorrow his price will shrink as the softer the going the better it is for this horse. |
|
By:
Would be very surprised if Moore rides Deauville.
.More chance of being on Port Douglas |
|
By:
think USAR is a massive runner whoever is on it
|
|
By:
We`ll all know jockey arrangements tomorrow but whatever the bookings I can`t have US Army Ranger.
|
|
By:
I would think Jamie Spencer would be on Deauville if anything because of the Mrs F Hay connection.
|
|
By:
If a Ballydoyle horse wins that will mean it's a poor Derby IMO. Not convinced they know which is their best and are just hoping it will be a Ruler of the World type renewal.
|
|
By:
Moore on UAR, AOB has just confirmed.
|
|
By:
Looks like someone reads aobfs too(unless connected to the coolmore mafia)
https://twitter.com/aobrienfansite/status/738040285977059328 There is NO CHANCE that Jamie Spencer will Be on US Army Ranger what a load of tosh he'd be on Deauville or nothing Why on earth would he get that ride ahead of Heff & Colm Just because of ties to Hayes if Ryan picks D JS misses out simple (3h ago) |
|
By:
where did you here that imp? racinguk?
|
|
By:
I looked at the pedigrees of the Oaks and Derby fields in an unusual way (used in a breeding article in the Weekender by James Underwood about twenty years ago.)
The idea is to describe each sire on the dam line by type e.g. CLASSIC MIDDLE-DISTANCE producer (note: not how he ran, but how he produced) When I was doing the work I decided to also show the sire of the colt/filly and then the four sires on the dam line like this (SIRE - sire_type)…. [Dam 1.- d1_s_type]...[Dam 2.- d2_s_type]...[Dam 3. - d3_s_type]... [Dam 4. -d4_s_type] For Minding it looks like (SIRE - Classic / Middle)…. [Dam 1.- Classic / Miler]...[Dam 2.- Classic / Middle]...[Dam 3. - Classic / Miler]... [Dam 4. -Group 1 / Sprinter] Sorted first by sire suitability, then damsire suitability, then second dam's sire suitability. This is the ranking Derby Across The Stars Port Douglas Cloth Of Stars Ulysses Beacon Rock Idaho Deauville Bravery Us Army Ranger Harzand Biodynamic Moonlight Magic Humphrey Bogart Red Verdon Massaat Wings Of Desire Algometer Shogun Oaks Minding Seventh Heaven Skiffle Turret Rocks Somehow Australian Queen Harlequeen Diamonds Pour Moi Architecture Comment: Moonlight Magic has a good Classic-Middle Distance sire (Cape Cross). He is let down by his dam's sire Lammtarra who only produced Group 3 here and nothing much in Japan. |
|
By:
Here are the line ups:
US Army Ranger - Ryan Moore Deauville - Jamie Spence Idaho - Seamie Heffernan Port Douglas - Colm O'Donoghue Shogun - Donnacha O'Brien |
|
By:
thx kincsem v useful
|
|
By:
or useless, depending on the result
 |
|
By:
Just blame the ground and jockey if it loses. that's the usual fare
 |
|
By:
Idiots on twitter spreading false info. I would have been very surprised if Moore chose Deauville over US Army Ranger.
|
|
By:
Heffernan on Idaho is mildly interesting given he's ridden both Idaho and Port Douglas previously and O'Donoghue has only ridden Idaho.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
fella came on here 2 weeks ago and said moore would ride deauville,said was a closer sauce than moore
|
|
By:
GIG
Racing Post. UAR is 3/1 to start 'fav' for the race with Freddy, and it's currently 'fav' here on 6.2 |
|
By:
I don't reckon it will be that short@3s because of the ground which moreorless evens the playing field for the flawed orses
|
|
By:
1.01 landed
|
|
By:
decided to take a chance on harzand in this at the 16/1 nrnb...this is still an incredibly open race but ground conditions have forced me to take the chance as i just don't see this price lasting...the market is probably going to change considerably if the ground remains on the soft side and looking at the weather i see no reason for it to dry up considerably to turn it back in favour of the good ground horses...anyway can see me backing more runners but at this time i see no reason not to take the 16's with the concession...its a brutal race to fathom
|
|
By:
I was looking for Steve Miller's Epsom Derby preview and instead found his 2000 Guineas preview.
Verdict: 1) Air Force Blue 2) Marcel 3) Stormy Antarctic Result 12th; 13th; 11th of 13 runners. |
|
By:
kincsem, lol. everyone is an expert in racing. Sometimes i see some guys on the racetrack and bookies pouring through form and having almost encyclopedic knowledge of breeding. They get a lot right a most of the time but yet they are also broke.
|
|
By:
16 of 18 declared and I think it's fairly obvious which two haven't made it
|
|
By:
The sportsbook just put up DOR market
15 runners NO US Army Ranger |
|
By:
Well R.Moore is due to ride this mystery horse and he's coming out of stall 15.
|