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Horse Antepost
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These 1256 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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Madhu
ReaseHeath- We need to hope our key statistician Kinscem gets on the case with that one concerning the draw. I recently bought a set of the Bloodstock Breeders Review annuals 1912 -1980.from way-books.co.uk (Newmarket) There is a Derby report of many pages with photographs of stages of the race. Very interesting. The Epsom Derby draw is mentioned each year before starting stalls were introduced. Going through the books from 1912 to 1951 I got nothing, but from 1952 onwards they printed the draw. I didn't look beyond 1963 but see in the 1968 annual they do not print the draw. You might wonder what has that got to do with modern Derbys. 1) the course is the same 2) the fields were large (like this year) Fin ->….(1)__(2)__(3)__(4)__(5)__(6) 1952….(16)_(32)_(26)_(19)_(23)_(33) 1953….(5)_(19)_(15)_(3)_(24)_(10) 1954….(18)_(5)_(4)_(8)_(9)_(12) 1955….(20)_(7)_(13)_(22)_(16)_(18) 1956….(17)_(4)_(20)_(10)_(11)_(7) 1957….(2)_(20)_(11)_(8)_(7)_(10) 1958….(20)_(10)_(19)_(18)_(3)_(8) 1959….(1)_(10)_(5)_(20)_(7)_(18) 1960….(8)_(13)_(16)_(17)_(5)_(14) 1961….(4)_(27)_(3)_(12)_(25)_(16) 1962….(23)_(18)_(9)_(2)_(7)_(4) 1963….(1)_(24)_(13)_(15)_(9)_(10) Only the first six shown here. I listed the full field each year (over 20 runners back then, 30 in 1952). I think I did an analysis of more modern Derbys and found the same (can't find the analysis.) I'll probably continue the draw analysis at my leisure over the next year. At present I am completing the pedigrees of 40k horses. I thought I had finished, but find 8k more to tidy up. This is for an in depth pedigree analysis of about 200k horses. Statistically there is a very slight bias favouring high numbers, but it is so small that it should be ignored. The stall are placed centrally and I think that reduces draw bias. The turn to the right and then the turn to the left also flatten the draw. imo the most important thing is that the horse must break fast. I don't like horses who run out the back every race. If he breaks slowly a pacey horse can get back into position in the first half mile uphill. Look at the 1965 Derby on Youtube (Pathe film) and see how Sea-Bird gets left at the start but is in about 8th place half a mile later. In the Derby a horse needs stamina. The have to climb 110 feet to the top of the hill. |
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Thanks kincsem.
A good break is an obvious advantage in order to get a good positioning. I remember Sir Lester saying you need to be in the first 4 to 6 coming down Tattenham Corner as that was a big advantage coming into the straight. I lost my voice for a few days shouting home Dancing Brave when he came from a long way back but I did have quite a few hot toddies in the morning on that occasion! |
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Hot off the press
Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk 22s 20mm rain @EpsomRacecourse. Going now Good to Soft, Soft in places on Derby Course with @TurfTrax reading of 6.1. 5 Furlongs Good to Soft. |
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I must admit that's over double what most of us were expecting
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Hill made of chalk lads - don't panic!!
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I suppose the bearing on The Derby is that Harzand is now a likely runner as opposed to looking unlikely if only 5 mm had fell.
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Just seen Alex Cole on ATR yesterday. Do you know who is riding Deauville in the Derby ? I have no idea....
Really ?? Not much of a racing manager :-) |
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20mm rain @EpsomRacecourse. Going now Good to Soft, Soft in places on Derby Course with @TurfTrax reading of 6.1. 5 Furlongs Good to Soft.
From Turftrax Archive (Turftrax going descriptions) 20 Apr 2016 Soft 5.2 27 Sep 2015 GS 6.0 10 Sep G 7.2 01 Sep SFT 5.4 31 Aug HVY 5.2 30 July G/GF 7.9 16 July G/F 7.9 02 July GF/G 8.6 05 June G 7.0 22 Apr G/GF 8.4 07 June 2014 G/GS 7.5 06 June G 7.8 01 June 2013 G/GS 7.1 31 Masy GS 6.7 02 June 2012 GF 8.5 01 June g?Gf 8.4 |
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guys, still plenty of black clouds. ignoring the weather forecast, i can see tomorrow being like today. #glum #softground?
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US ARMY RANGER
looking shaky |
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Do you think jockey bookings have been made.
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guys, still plenty of black clouds. ignoring the weather forecast, i can see tomorrow being like today
Or, to put it another way, NOT ignoring the weather forecast, I can see tomorrow NOT being like today  |
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Big wobble on Ranger. Idaho crashing.
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Surprise Idaho being backed into 20s .Thought he was well over @ 50.0s but quite happy to let that go @ 20s.
The best Derby for trading ive known in 13 years here. |
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Both USAR and PD dropping through the floor. News from Ballydoyle perhaps?
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Port Douglas lost a leg as well.
The coolmore ante post swings and roundabouts smoke and mirrors are well to the fore |
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Port Douglas out to 30.0, this mean French Derby?
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GIG
The f/c for Epsom today was spot on -heavy rain this morning. Very little f/c for rest of week but plenty of your black clouds though. |
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The Headmaster
Big wobble on Ranger. Idaho crashing. Idaho trading at 21s. I put €10 at 32s on Idaho yesterday to cover the £200 I promised Shrews if it won. |
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cheers, you must be right in epsom, so thx for that. won a bit on an acca today ,so might top up on harzand if this awful weather continues
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Deauville odds tumble.....
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Once the declarations are made I`ll put up comparative prices from today`s prices,May26th before declarations. Betfair Prices today May31st
Only two horses at bigger price US Army Ranger 5.6>9.2,Moonlight Magic 13>14 Humphrey Bogart and Shogun at the same price All the rest are shorter. Particularly significant are Idaho 42>20,Harzand 29>16, Algometer 65>32,Red Verdon 70>21, Across The Stars 42>30 and Bravery 110>75. Anybody backing any of the last group can be smug and hope they get a run. Those that have backed US Army Ranger may be a little miffed. Still time for changes this week but ante-post can pay but you have to pick the right horses. |
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Port Douglas to add to the bigger Feltfair
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Well done Kincsem! Must admit it felt like a throw away line from you at the time....I'm sure Shrews would be delighted and no doubt a little surprised if you paid up. Fair play!
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Is anyone else buying this Ryan Moore rides Deauville and Jamie Spencer is on Ranger rumour?
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Where did you get that from ?
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Not a source that I could describe as reliable, but the rumour is gathering pace and the Derby betting on oddschecker certainly backs something like that up (maybe the Moore bit at least - I don't know how Spencer ends up on Ranger though
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a rumour from a non reliable source??
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Well Spencer or no spencer Moore or no Moore runner or non runner im having some of the 8s
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Well I guess we'll find out if it's reliable around 1pm on Thursday geoff. The same rumour is plastered all over Twitter anyway.
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I'm disappointed Port Douglas is on the drift - could be ground/welfare related - and surprised Deauville is being back as I've always thought the latter is a much better horse on good/fast ground. Also, AOB was reported to favour the French Derby however, his owners favour a day at Epsom instead; UAR is really on a walkabout, if jockey rumour is true and not ground/welfare related, I'd not be worried one bit.
If the rain persists tomorrow and saturday going is on the soft side of good then Harzand must come into the reckoning big time. |
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Well I don't see much money rushing to back Deauville on the exchange
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Harmonica - please see link to cloth of stars last win courtesy of Leicester B on the OBLG forum
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2050/ Looked a good performance and improving |
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moore will be on the ranger
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Yes geoffm. Missed Port Douglas. Senior Moment.
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Deauville was 18/19 earlier but is now only 13/14. Regards jockey plan for UAR if it was a just rumour on twitter it'll blow over soon enough I reckon; Port Douglas had drifted to 33/38 about 2x previous - not good.
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so hence the massive drift this morning.
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