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Someone asked further up which of AOB's will be the hare. Is it guaranteed he'd want a strong pace given that fav WOD is likely to benefit just as much, if not more, than any of AOB's?
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I think someone has been mischievous and there's no substance about the rumour on the riding arrangement for UAR as yet. The price for UAR has stabilised and currently trading at around 6.4 here. I do not believe the rain will affect the running plan of UAR either as he's won on soft going in Ireland.
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Jack_Kray- They could just as well get to the front and set slow fractions for their benefit.
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Madhu - When the word 'hare' was mentioned, I assumed it meant going a good gallop.
I think it's often taken that if a big stable has multiple runners, there is possibly a pacemaker in there for the better fancied one(s), I don't see an obvious one of AOB's that would necessarily benefit from having the race run at a strong pace. Not to the extent that it would give them an advantage over the rest of the field anyway. |
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Deauville coming in for more support tonight. Riding arrangements should become clearer tomorrow.
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Deauville is exposed and not certain to stay a strongly run 12 furlongs around Epsom at Derby pace. US Army Ranger has a perfect Derby pedigree and will relish the fast pace over this course and distance and is open to far greater improvement. I know which one I would rather ride if I was Ryan Moore.
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Jack_Kray-
Also it will be a disadvantage if you do not get a good position early in the front half of the field. Most of them have never been in a race with more than 12 runners, so quality jockeymanship is key. There will be hard luck stories aplenty with so many inexperienced horses in the field and on such an extreme course. If you manage to pick the winner this year you will have done well. |
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I thought Deauville ran a stormer in the Dante and would have won it if it had been race fit. Surely though Moore wont get off US Army Ranger. Are there any clues as to what OBrien runs in the French Derby?
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Epsom will definitley get more rain today looking at the forecast. Will probably be Good to Soft on Saturday.
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with large field , think jockeyship going to be all important, dont want to be wide coming town tattenham corner. is it possible for a lesser fancied horse to be given an enterprising ride and kick on and nick race ?
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it looks like its fallling into place nicely for harzand
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Much more rain at Epsom than anyone anticipated with 22.5mm yesterday and a touch more forecast today bringing it to 25mm. Even at epsom that will have an effect and with only 3 days to the Derby its enough for me to get out of my wings of desire bet. I'm pretty certain that this colt want fast ground (g/f at York) and its possible that the soft ground was not to his liking last tuesday at the Epsom breakfast. So, reluctantly, i'm out of him and out of the race for now.
My Derby book is a mess with losses on Midterm and the saver on Minding and a small trading loss on WOD. But, hey ho, that's life. I shall take a fresh look on saturday when we know whether Harzand is in (the only one who definately wants soft?) and reconsider then. |
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Could Deauville possibly go off fav if/when Moore is confirmed ?
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Possibly, although I do find it rather odd tbh. He was never going to be fav until this Moore business started, so does the market assume Deauville has suddenly grown a leg? To my mind it's just a massive negative about Ranger and Deauville is still the horse we all think he is.
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bDeauville\p needs further. He´s a full brother to The Corsican, who won the Arc trial at Newbury last week, and the faster the ground the better. He´s one to look forward to next year with - Alex Cole, racing manager to Jim and Fitri Hay.
After 26/9/15 Newmarket I'd wouldn't have thought that ground on the soft side is up his street either, so favourite? No, shouldn't think so. |
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Apologies GIG, I know you're a fan, but I'm rapidly concluding there is no Derby horse housed at Ballydoyle this year - and I'm green on all of them too
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2 weeks ago Moore was riding Deauville and I posted this on here. I had the best source possible outside of Moore himself....however maybe Moore didn't know which one he was going to be told to ride.
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Not a glimmer of sunshine to dry things up.
I bet Weld and Smullen cant believe their luck. If any one can do it The Aga Khan |
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If any one can do it The Aga Khan
![]() I wish I could like the bloke a bit more ![]() |
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AOB has pulled all but two of his runners from the Jockey Club
Black Sea Bravery |
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That chaffs a bit
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The_LUCwaffe - How do you know about the Obrien runners in the french derby? Thanks. (I was interested in Bravery for Epsom).
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Davy
http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/Domaines/Courses/course_detail.aspx?aaCrse=2016&spCrse=P&numCrsePgm=00455 |
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1 ZARAK M.PS. 3 a. 58 480 S.A. AGA KHAN A.DE ROYER DUPRE 45.230
2 RASEED GB M.PS. 3 A. 58 480 HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM F. HEAD (S) 72.400 3 MEKHTAAL (GB) M.PS. 3 A. 58 525 AL SHAQAB RACING JC. ROUGET (S) 93.400 4 Royal Julius Ire M.Ps. 3 A. 58 470 MME JADE PRESCILLIA ANGELINI A. WATRIGANT (S) 47.750 5 ROBIN OF NAVAN M.PS. 3 A. 58 505 CROSS/DEAL/FODEN/SIEFF HJL. DUNLOP 293.750 6 BLACK SEA IRE M.PS. 3 A. 58 *** D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR AP. O'BRIEN 46.020 7 ALMANZOR M.PS. 3 A. 58 475 ECURIE ANTONIO CARO JC. ROUGET (S) 102.000 8 APILOBAR M.PS. 3 A. 58 465 G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND/K. MORIZE F. VERMEULEN (S) 83.200 9 Floodlight Usa M.Ps. 3 A. 58 455 GODOLPHIN SNC A. FABRE (S) 51.000 10 TALISMANIC GB M.PS. 3 A. 58 460 GODOLPHIN SNC A. FABRE (S) 57.250 11 FOUNDATION IRE M.PS. 3 A. 58 *** HIGHCLERE T.R. (WELLINGTON) J. GOSDEN 164.191 12 Golden Bridge M.Ps. 3 A. 58 440 MME F. LEON-DUFOUR/E. DE BRYAS CH. GOURDAIN (S) 51.650 13 VENTURA STORM IRE M.PS. 3 A. 58 460 MIDDLEHAM PARK RACING LXXII R. HANNON 42.743 14 ALGOMETER GB M.PS. 3 A. 58 *** MLLE KIRSTEN RAUSING DMI. SIMCOCK 58.750 15 BRAVERY IRE M.PS. 3 a. 58 *** SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR/O'BRIEN AP. O'BRIEN 21.415 16 PARTHENIUS GER M.PS. 3 A. 58 *** STALL ANTANANDO MAR. HOFER 38.20 |
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Algometer still in too
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If Ryan Moore is on Deauville it would be highly unusual for the Ballydoyle #1 not to be in some form of Coolmore triumvirate colours for a race of this magnitude.
Certainly not one of Ballydoyle's stronger years if there's any sort of indecision. I'm on Shogun since last summer, so hope it now stays dry so he gets to run. Shame about yesterdays heavy rain, as on good to firm he'd be a serious player......just watch last years Lagadere for evidence of that. Hugo Palmer also indicated that racing that day at Longchamp was on fast ground. |
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LUFCwaffe - I think you'll find that Magnier, Smith and Tabor all have a leg of Deauville. It was bred by Jim Hay so runs in his colours.
They will let their jockey ride the horse with the best chance on the day. |
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Looking at the Derrinstown trial again I thought Idaho ran an eye catching race.Anyone else?
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Sprinter 7--Thanks for the Cloth of Stars link.Quite impressive
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Hibore, indeed I'm aware of that. And from the ownership history on the RP, the 'lads' bought in at some point last year.
to me though, they remain a triumvirate, and as far as I'm aware Hay hasn't been invited into the inner circle. These guys like to win in their own colours. suggests that they aren't overly confident this year. |
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I'm pricing this race up at 7/1 the field with at least 6 horses with chances and others not far off. So many uncertainties, I would have to go back a few years to find such an open race.
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yeah Idaho could be coming in under the radar although he mightnt even run yet so ya wouldnt know,thought first time out in ran well and in the Derrinstown he didnt seem to be given a hard race,ideally yad hope his work has been upped significantly since Leopardstown as he appeared as one to have plenty of improvement in him yet...
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but least I still have Harzand , which at the time thought as a fun bet at the time when in PP. Hopefully it will not topple over around tattenham corner and hopefullly the sticky ground will do its job. lolz
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The heavens have just opened again here in Epsom.
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Id agree with you there Sandown re the prices ive been laying the front few in the market and backing the longer priced 1s for weeks now on the basis there isnt much more than 7 lbs between 10 of em.
Big field may be a few hard luck stories Will probably just as hard to pick the winner coming round Tattenham Corner as it is pre race. |
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Thanks for the French Derby entries. So what about Port Douglas - I assumed it drifted because it was going to France. Surely it runs at Epsom now?
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Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk 15m
Just over 4mm rain @EpsomRacecourse today, on top of the 22.5mm yesterday. Will walk again at 1pm & update going and @TurfTrax Going Stick. |
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Ulysses the latest to go through a price 'correction'. If you could anticipate the drifts and subsequent bounce backs you could have made a fortune in this year's market.
Guessing PD lines up, DJ, yep. We're all guessing now though ![]() |
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Automatically thought PD was going French Derby after yesterdays alarming drift. Which seemed a surprise as hes got the experience and form in the book .
Well overpriced if there was nothing more sinister behind yesterdays drift. |