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Horse Antepost

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Epsom DERBY 2016

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By:
Jack_Kray
When: 31 May 16 18:41
Someone asked further up which of AOB's will be the hare. Is it guaranteed he'd want a strong pace given that fav WOD is likely to benefit just as much, if not more, than any of AOB's?
By:
impossible123
When: 31 May 16 19:19
I think someone has been mischievous and there's no substance about the rumour on the riding arrangement for UAR as yet. The price for UAR has stabilised and currently trading at around 6.4 here. I do not believe the rain will affect the running plan of UAR either as he's won on soft going in Ireland.
By:
Madhu
When: 31 May 16 19:42
Jack_Kray- They could just as well get to the front and set slow fractions for their benefit.
By:
Jack_Kray
When: 31 May 16 20:07
Madhu - When the word 'hare' was mentioned, I assumed it meant going a good gallop.

I think it's often taken that if a big stable has multiple runners, there is possibly a pacemaker in there for the better fancied one(s), I don't see an obvious one of AOB's that would necessarily benefit from having the race run at a strong pace. Not to the extent that it would give them an advantage over the rest of the field anyway.
By:
Hibore
When: 31 May 16 20:31
Deauville coming in for more support tonight. Riding arrangements should become clearer tomorrow.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 31 May 16 20:31
Deauville is exposed and not certain to stay a strongly run 12 furlongs around Epsom at Derby pace. US Army Ranger has a perfect Derby pedigree and will relish the fast pace over this course and distance and is open to far greater improvement. I know which one I would rather ride if I was Ryan Moore.
By:
Madhu
When: 31 May 16 20:42
Jack_Kray-

Also it will be a disadvantage if you do not get a good position early in the front half of the field. Most of them have never been in a race with more than 12 runners, so quality jockeymanship is key. There will be hard luck stories aplenty with so many inexperienced horses in the field and on such an extreme course. If you manage to pick the winner this year you will have done well.
By:
Davy Jones
When: 31 May 16 20:44
I thought Deauville ran a stormer in the Dante and would have won it if it had been race fit. Surely though Moore wont get off US Army Ranger. Are there any clues as to what OBrien runs in the French Derby?
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Jun 16 05:22
Epsom will definitley get more rain today looking at the forecast. Will probably be Good to Soft on Saturday.
By:
morpteh mackem
When: 01 Jun 16 06:51
with large field , think jockeyship going to be all important, dont want to be wide coming town tattenham corner. is it possible for  a lesser fancied horse to be given an enterprising ride and kick on  and nick race ?
By:
gpz6316
When: 01 Jun 16 07:25
it looks like its fallling into place nicely for harzand
By:
Sandown
When: 01 Jun 16 08:53
Much more rain at Epsom than anyone anticipated with 22.5mm yesterday and a touch more forecast today bringing it to 25mm. Even at epsom that will have an effect and with only 3 days to the Derby its enough for me to get out of my wings of desire bet. I'm pretty certain that this colt want fast ground (g/f at York) and its possible that the soft ground was not to his liking last tuesday at the Epsom breakfast. So, reluctantly, i'm out of him and out of the race  for now.

My Derby book is a mess with losses on Midterm and the saver on Minding and a small trading loss on WOD. But, hey ho, that's life. I shall take a fresh look on saturday when we know whether Harzand is in (the only one who definately wants soft?) and reconsider then.
By:
Hibore
When: 01 Jun 16 09:06
Could Deauville possibly go off fav if/when Moore is confirmed ?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 09:10
Possibly, although I do find it rather odd tbh.  He was never going to be fav until this Moore business started, so does the market assume Deauville has suddenly grown a leg? To my mind it's just a massive negative about Ranger and Deauville is still the horse we all think he is.
By:
Sandown
When: 01 Jun 16 09:11
bDeauville\p needs further. He´s a full brother to The Corsican, who won the Arc trial at Newbury last week, and the faster the ground the better. He´s one to look forward to next year with - Alex Cole, racing manager to Jim and Fitri Hay.

After 26/9/15 Newmarket

I'd wouldn't have thought that ground on the soft side is up his street either, so favourite? No, shouldn't think so.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 09:13
Apologies GIG, I know you're a fan, but I'm rapidly concluding there is no Derby horse housed at Ballydoyle this year - and I'm green on all of them too Plain
By:
Hibore
When: 01 Jun 16 09:17
2 weeks ago Moore was riding Deauville and I posted this on here. I had the best source possible outside of Moore himself....however maybe Moore didn't know which one he was going to be told to ride.
By:
geoff m
When: 01 Jun 16 09:28
Not a glimmer of sunshine to dry things up.
I bet Weld and Smullen cant believe their luck.
If any one can do it The Aga Khan
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 09:43
If any one can do it The Aga Khan Laugh

I wish I could like the bloke a bit more Cry
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 01 Jun 16 09:53
AOB has pulled all but two of his runners from the Jockey Club

Black Sea
Bravery
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 10:02
That chaffs a bit
By:
Davy Jones
When: 01 Jun 16 10:06
The_LUCwaffe - How do you know about the Obrien runners in the french derby? Thanks. (I was interested in Bravery for Epsom).
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 01 Jun 16 10:13
Davy

http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/Domaines/Courses/course_detail.aspx?aaCrse=2016&spCrse=P&numCrsePgm=00455
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 10:18
1    ZARAK M.PS. 3 a.    58    480         S.A. AGA KHAN    A.DE ROYER DUPRE    45.230
2    RASEED GB M.PS. 3 A.    58    480         HAMDAN AL MAKTOUM    F. HEAD (S)    72.400
3    MEKHTAAL (GB) M.PS. 3 A.    58    525         AL SHAQAB RACING    JC. ROUGET (S)    93.400
4    Royal Julius Ire M.Ps. 3 A.    58    470         MME JADE PRESCILLIA ANGELINI    A. WATRIGANT (S)    47.750
5    ROBIN OF NAVAN M.PS. 3 A.    58    505         CROSS/DEAL/FODEN/SIEFF    HJL. DUNLOP    293.750
6    BLACK SEA IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***         D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR    AP. O'BRIEN    46.020
7    ALMANZOR M.PS. 3 A.    58    475         ECURIE ANTONIO CARO    JC. ROUGET (S)    102.000
8    APILOBAR M.PS. 3 A.    58    465         G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND/K. MORIZE    F. VERMEULEN (S)    83.200
9    Floodlight Usa M.Ps. 3 A.    58    455         GODOLPHIN SNC    A. FABRE (S)    51.000
10    TALISMANIC GB M.PS. 3 A.    58    460         GODOLPHIN SNC    A. FABRE (S)    57.250
11    FOUNDATION IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***         HIGHCLERE T.R. (WELLINGTON)    J. GOSDEN    164.191
12    Golden Bridge M.Ps. 3 A.    58    440         MME F. LEON-DUFOUR/E. DE BRYAS    CH. GOURDAIN (S)    51.650
13    VENTURA STORM IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58    460         MIDDLEHAM PARK RACING LXXII    R. HANNON    42.743
14    ALGOMETER GB M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***         MLLE KIRSTEN RAUSING    DMI. SIMCOCK    58.750
15    BRAVERY IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58    ***         SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR/O'BRIEN    AP. O'BRIEN    21.415
16    PARTHENIUS GER M.PS. 3 A.    58    ***         STALL ANTANANDO    MAR. HOFER    38.20
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 10:19
Algometer still in too
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 01 Jun 16 10:39
If Ryan Moore is on Deauville it would be highly unusual for the Ballydoyle #1 not to be in some form of Coolmore triumvirate colours for a race of this magnitude.

Certainly not one of Ballydoyle's stronger years if there's any sort of indecision.

I'm on Shogun since last summer, so hope it now stays dry so he gets to run. Shame about yesterdays heavy rain, as on good to firm he'd be a serious player......just watch last years Lagadere for evidence of that.
Hugo Palmer also indicated that racing that day at Longchamp was on fast ground.
By:
Hibore
When: 01 Jun 16 10:52
LUFCwaffe - I think you'll find that Magnier, Smith and Tabor all have a leg of Deauville. It was bred by Jim Hay so runs in his colours.

They will let their jockey ride the horse with the best chance on the day.
By:
HarmonicaPhil
When: 01 Jun 16 10:59
Looking at the Derrinstown trial again I thought Idaho ran an eye catching race.Anyone else?
By:
HarmonicaPhil
When: 01 Jun 16 11:10
Sprinter 7--Thanks for the Cloth of Stars link.Quite impressive
By:
The_LUFCwaffe
When: 01 Jun 16 11:18
Hibore, indeed I'm aware of that. And from the ownership history on the RP, the 'lads' bought in at some point last year.

to me though, they remain a triumvirate, and as far as I'm aware Hay hasn't been invited into the inner circle.
These guys like to win in their own colours.

suggests that they aren't overly confident this year.
By:
Sandown
When: 01 Jun 16 11:22
I'm pricing this race up at 7/1 the field with at least 6 horses with chances and others not far off. So many uncertainties, I  would have to go back a few years to find such an open race.
By:
sykes10
When: 01 Jun 16 11:22
yeah Idaho could be coming in under the radar although he mightnt even run yet so ya wouldnt know,thought first time out in ran well and in the Derrinstown he didnt seem to be given a hard race,ideally yad hope his work has been upped significantly since Leopardstown as he appeared as one to have plenty of improvement in him yet...
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 01 Jun 16 11:34

Jun 1, 2016 -- 4:13AM, The Headmaster wrote:


Apologies GIG, I know you're a fan, but I'm rapidly concluding there is no Derby horse housed at Ballydoyle this year - and I'm green on all of them too


It is drizzling right now in Carlshalton, together with yesterday's rain it really does confuse things and I almost feel like I just want to lay off like I did with the Oaks. i could lay off all green for 20 squid but I can't be bothered now. As this Derby is slowing descending into a lottery, it's almost like backing antepost was a waste of time,  but mind, at least I got some good banter on the way.

By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 01 Jun 16 11:37
but least I still have Harzand , which at the time thought as a fun bet at the time when in PP. Hopefully it will not topple over around tattenham corner and hopefullly the sticky ground will do its job.  lolz
By:
Hibore
When: 01 Jun 16 11:37
The heavens have just opened again here in Epsom.
By:
geoff m
When: 01 Jun 16 11:39
Id agree with you there Sandown re the prices ive been laying the front few in the market and backing the longer priced 1s for weeks now on the basis there isnt much more than 7 lbs between 10 of em.
Big field may be a few hard luck stories
Will probably just as hard to pick the winner coming round Tattenham Corner as it is pre race.
By:
Davy Jones
When: 01 Jun 16 11:50
Thanks for the French Derby entries. So what about Port Douglas - I assumed it drifted because it was going to France. Surely it runs at Epsom now?
By:
geoff m
When: 01 Jun 16 12:03
Andrew Cooper ‏@ACooperClerk 15m

Just over 4mm rain @EpsomRacecourse today, on top of the 22.5mm yesterday. Will walk again at 1pm  & update going and @TurfTrax Going Stick.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 01 Jun 16 12:04
Ulysses the latest to go through a price 'correction'.  If you could anticipate the drifts and subsequent bounce backs you could have made a fortune in this year's market.

Guessing PD lines up, DJ, yep.  We're all guessing now though Crazy
By:
geoff m
When: 01 Jun 16 12:11
Automatically thought PD was going French Derby after yesterdays alarming drift. Which seemed a surprise as hes got the experience and form in the book .
Well overpriced if there was nothing more sinister behind yesterdays drift.
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