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Horse Antepost
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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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I was in a bookies in Ewell when some of Stoute's stable lads came in the back Commander in Chief for the Derby before it ran in a Newmarket maiden @ 50/1. Most of the shop had a £5 or £10 on him...some had more.
Happy days :-) |
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Madhu
Pretty certain that Harzand will not like probable good/fast ground at Epsom especially so he must be doubtful to run. Re WOD and Pivotal. Don't forget that WOD has already won over 12f albeit on polytrack.Judging by the way WOD runs I would say that he is a stayer anyway rather than a quickener. And thirdly,Pivotal may have been a 5f horse but look at his pedigree. He's got Caro, Bustino,Northern Dancer in there and WOD on dam's side has In The wings, sadlers wells,Northern Dancer, Shirley Heights, Alleged, High Top., Mountain Lodge (Cesarwitch). I think there is a case for saying that he has inherited stamina through the dam line.His dosage figs of DI 0.73 CD -0.12 suggest if he loses it won't be because he doen't stay. (he is the only contender with a negatice CD , a stayer indicator and he has the lowest DI of them all.) Check out www.chef-de-race.com if you need expalanations. Interstingly, the received wisdom is that Pivotals stock want soft but Pivotal himself only won on g/f or faster. |
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The thing is Sandown, Pivotal has only really managed to get Sariska and Eagle Top as Group 1 performers over 12f and the latter hasn’t won one over the distance. Harzand for sure, right now, is unlikely to get his ground.
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Madhu
I learned something for once on one of these threads. I think it may have been a post by cryoftruth, maybe not, but he explained the importance of the dam side when it comes to stamina inheritance. Something to do with mitochondrial genes. I checked it out and found that there is something to the theory. It can only be passed on down the female side and it can relate to stamina.WOD has plenty of stamina so I wouldn't worry. And the fact that Pivotal has sired 2 G1 performers over 12f shows that he doesn't just get sprinters. |
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Sandown-
Analogy in humans as well, with mitochondrial genome mutations being passed on 100% of the time from mother to all her offspring and not at all by males. 'And the fact that Pivotal has sired 2 G1 performers over 12f shows that he doesn't just get sprinters.' is a bit limited when it comes to Group 1 class in all honesty. We will see just how good the Dante is in the future but I don't rate that race highly this year at all. |
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Madhu
Aren't you basing your opinion entirely on Pivotal to the exclsuion of the dam side. If he doen't win it will be because he isn't good enough not because he doesn't stay. In fact, I'd he's more likely to stay than anything else. |
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I am not saying he will not stay Sandown, his female line is there for all to see, I just think he will not be up to the class of winning the Derby or a Group 1 over a mile and a half. Pivotal has simply not sired a Group 1 winning colt over 12f and he has not done so in nearly 20 years, even forgiving him given the type of mares he received early on. I take back my comments slightly on the Dante as I still see enormous potential in Muntazaah and Choreographer.
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Sandown- I think re-reading your last post, we more or less agree.
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Troys Derby of 1979 (200th) was wide open from memory.
Until  the final furlong |
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Geoff m- Was that the one with the bog roll?
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Yep Madhu
Troy Derby . http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXlpnJchK8c Toilet roll chucked at 0.40 just as they change camera angle |
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As I look at the Betfair market they bet to approximately 104% with 35 horses in the betting. If 20 is the safety limit then 15 have to come out which for me says now is the time to bet if you are confident of a run. For me the prices can only get shorter.
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The words of a layer
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I make it 101% once you exclude everything 250.0+
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The Coolmore boys have been known to bet on the day of the race eg Giovanni Canalleto and Hans Holbein in the Derby, and Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst last year.
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Once the declarations are made I`ll put up comparative prices from today`s prices.
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I have finally dipped my toe in the water with a small bet on Ulysses. Very good pedigree and Stoute doesn't often run one with so little experience so he must like what he has seen.
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Awtaad been nibbled back in to 50
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Twitter- @EpsomRacecourse, Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk
First going report for @investec Derby Festival @EpsomRacecourse is GOOD with @TurfTrax going stick of 7.0. Showers poss Sat am. |
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One of the O'Brien runners, not USAR at the price, personally I like Idaho - he had a terrible run in the Derrinstown and is a massive price
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They are all quality horses, nothing outstanding so far, but one of them will probably stick their neck out on the day,
that's my opinion, not that I'm backing anything with much confidence. |
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I'd give Shogun a shout too given the ground
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I don't like the fact Idaho hasn't been entered in the Irish Champion. I would expect an O'Brien Derby winner to have that entry. Either the trainer doesn't think he's up to it or is too slow for 1m 2f, in which case he'll be launched early and probably set it up for something else. Either way a big negative.
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At the moment WOD is in fashion but it could change tomorrow - this game of musical chairs will continue until the day of the race I reckon.
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Interesting to note that significant rain has crept into the forecast on Tuesday and to a lesser degree Wednesday.
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A little bit from tother forum from Studious. Sums up one of my many thoughts on this year's race (apart from the poor renewal bit...I'm reserving judgement on that).
Of the absolute rags I think only Bravery is half interesting and is 100+ on here currently. Hasn't got the most unpromising profile. Beaten FTO by subsequent Irish 2000G's winner, beaten NTO when held up in a big field maiden run at an absolute funereal gallop so had no chance. Won his maiden easily, then not disgraced in G1 company on only his fourth start. The key here is the wack up in trip to 12f, Galileo out of a Rainbow Quest mare, it's been what he'll have wanted all along. The dam has thrown to Group2 class animals by Dylan Thomas & High Chap (god bless him loved the horse and his win in the Derby got me started) but neither of those are Galileo...my point is he's got the potential to be up to the required level over this distance given what the dam has already thrown by lesser lights. Of course a tonne of improve needed but he's 100/1 and Aiden hasn't 'gone for him' yet...once he's had 'that' prep...you could see a few stones improve in the horse and there's no chance in Christendom if he runs he goes off 100/1 or 66/1...will be more like 25/1...he's the only horse at a real price with any cogent upside. There's plenty of If's and But's overall there...hate not having a really assertive opinion on a race I love and which is so important to the racing year but the only conclusive assertive opinion I have is it's 100% a piss poor renewal and as such one can afford to be speculative (Red Verdon, Bravery etc) |
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Re the forecast I'm not seeing much. Bit on Tuesday morning that's about it? The site below is the one the Clerk at Epsom uses and is widely regarded as the most accurate, I've looked at others and they're backing it up.
http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Epsom/long.html Are you trying to lay Harzand, lordnoise? |
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LOL no honest HM! Take a look at the BBC site and put in Epsom and Tuesdays looking a bit grizzly. Couldn't see much at all in the long term early last week.
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No worries!
In the meantime...WTF is going on with Wings Of Desire?!?!? |
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He seems to have disappeared off Weatherbys' list of Derby entries
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Apologies, I'm going mad. Of course he's not on the list, he isn't entered
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I'm in Banstead, which is near Epsom. This month it probably has rained intermittently for 2-3 times a week, so almost certainly it will be good ground come derby day. Touch wood!
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18 go through
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whats yr latest position on the race imp123? I'm AOB all positive, with a few others. I can't really lay off as my positions haven't really changed a significant deal in price over the past few weeks. With hindsight should of backed Ulysses for the trade at 33s, as the Stoute factor was always bound to go down to crazy odds.
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Plenty of rain forecast on Tuesday, then showers and drizzle Wednesday, and possibly the odd spot on Thursday too, and dull and cool all week so if it does go a bit softer it won't dry up that quickly.
With that in mind I have taken a chance on Harzand at 32 on here - probably be a non runner but will surely be about 10/1 if he runs. |
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Algometer is value at 33/1 NRNB with Bet365 and Paddy Power. If there is something with real class in the race it will run him over but Algometer stays and is genuine.
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^ 33/1 e/w of course.
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18 runners. I like.
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GIG
You're in Banstead and I'm in Cheam, a stone's throw away. I'm on UAR and PD and Harzand (nrnb) and still losing money on the Derby book because I took a position on So Mi Dar and Minding which are non runners - some you win, some you lose; I'm not confident on UAR but just hopeful for a massive improvement post Chester Vase - I liked the way he travelled there. I'm also hoping Moore chooses him and not one of his stablemates which I believe is the reason he's taken a walk in the market at the present moment. I'm not a fan of the others including WOD despite the confidence of Gosden - he'd the same opinion with Linguistic. The others eg Ulysses - no way - possibly an afterthought post the eclipse of Midterm; Cloth Of Stars, I might do a forecast with UAR and PD, a tricast for fun if permissible in the Derby. Good ground would be ok for most, if softer, the Irish contingent eg Harzand, would be in his element. |
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yeah. v close, used to go to school in sutton too
 . looks cloudy and looks like it will chuck it down heavy later or tomorrow |