on his acca

i agree regarding massaat and gg but not regarding the gurkha . hes got so much speed aiden says which he said about galileo himself . im certain he would win

unlucky mate so mi dar would at least placed if fully fit

last word on this galileo gold has no scope and is going backwards imo from here onwards . massaat is in the care of a trainer owen burrows . i think he may have control regarding what the horse does and he has scope so i see the horse doing ok during the season .i would take him royal ascot for the commonwealth cup then rest and then the  prix del abbaye

What I particularly like about Harzand (apart from the fact we KNOW he stays 10f really well) is that most of his immediate family showed a liking for good ground or firmer.
Sire Sea the Stars did (and liked Epsom) and so do the best of his offspring so far. Dam Hazariyas offspring have shown a definite liking for it while damsire Xaars best progeny are good ground horses too.
Sure enough Harzands best wins are on Heavy ground but check out the way he ran on on Good ground on his debut.
I know jockey Pat Smullen has his doubts that a heavy topped colt like to whether Harzand will act around Epsom but I'm extremely happy that Pat should be the man trying to make sure he does!!!
Crikey - if this fella can put it all together more efficiently on better ground he could be a monster!!!

i wouldnt put you away from harzand as his profile is excellent my nag is that hes 55 days away from the track and that indicates a problem . why didnt he run in the derrinstown ? i dont know you dont know but he did beat idaho fair and square and if they can get him right he has a big shout . i just had a bit myself as i think your shout is a very good one

well i spent the evening looking through the derby . and i couldnt see it till lordnoise said it and ye i think harzand is clicking for me ty lordnoise you have just pinpointed the winner of the derby imo

ya thanks for the interesting and imformative posts .nice to see horse racing chat about  opinions rather than dopes slagging each other off  i think harzand and ballydoyle . gl too

The Gurkha...........3.50



thats mine

On Aug 12 1994, a 2 year old called Lammtarra won his first and only race at 2, the Listed class Washington Singer Stakes at Newbury.He was 3/1 2nd fav, won by 0.75l from Myself the evens fav. He was given a RPR of 100 and a TS of 101.Myself had experience of 3 runs beforehand, been rated 110 and therefore Lammtarra could be rated a very good prospect. Myself (a filly)peaked when winning the G3 Nell Gwynn Stakes as a 3r. She finished her career rated officially at 107.

Lammtarra's next race was the Derby where he went off 14/1 6th fav. I remember thinking at the time that how come he won when others had apparently better cases.The fav Pennekamp had looked a good 2000 gns winner, was by Bering (av 10.0) out of a Green Dancer (11.0) mare. Bred to stay, I had doubts myself.Spectrum, Irish 2000 gns winner was by Rainbow Quest (stamina influence 11.3) out of a Irish River (miler) mare, so not a certain 12f horse.Tamure12/1 was bred to stay being by Sadlers Wells out of Blakeney mare (stamina influence).


Lammtarra went on to prove himself really top class winning the King George Diamond Stakes and the Arc and remained unbeaten.


His win was a shock but at 14/1 he wasn't a complete unknown.

The following year the Derby was won by Shaamit at 12/1. He was first time out at 3 and a winner of a maiden at 2 at Doncaster where he was given an RPR 84. After the Dereby win he was rated 121 an increase of 37 lbs the biggest single race to improvement in the modern era.He was not unnoticed because of Lester P's involvement through his son-in-law William Haggas, the trainer. Apparently gallop reports in the Spring were glowing.

I've followed racing since the early 70's and these 2 winners came as a surprise to most people. Up to then, Morston (73)25/1 had run once, winning at Lingfield, and Blakeney (69) 15/2 were the most surprising to me.Could this be another year when then is a (somewhat) surprising winner?


This year there is no outstanding colt with Classic winning or  placed form coming into the race, Awtaat or Massaat  notwithstanding.The Gurkha goes to France. There often is and the debate then is about whether they will stay or not.

The best trials after the Classics are the Dante,Derrinstown,Lingfield, Chester Vase and the winners of these are represented by WOD,MM,USAR.None of these have looked dominant and all have to improve a lot, but might.

The French send COS but to be honest he doesn't look like a Pour Moi and their record is not outstanding generally with respect to Fabre.

Then there a number of dark horses who have been running in lesser class but who could play a part, the most likely of these being Ulysses who looks as though he might be another Kris Kin for Stoute.

To my mind this is not a race to go heavy in unless you are building a book. It does not look like what I call a clear betting race, unlike the Oaks where i think that Minding is a clear likely winner  available at odds against, providing she turns up. That for me is a professional bet whereas the Derby is more like a handicap at level weights with too many unknowns.Nevertheless, mhaving so far lost out onn midterm I shall try and recoup stakes for a small profit on Wings of Desire as winner of the best trial, proven at the trip,, and still capable of improvement  this being just his 4th run.

Sandown, I was just about to post that WOD reminds me of Lammtarra at this stage - strong and workmanlike, with tons of stamina. He's never going to coast past horses on the bridle, but kept up to his work from some way out. Even his odds on Wolves win, he was being pushed along before the straight.

You can see Frankie shoving him along before the 3 pole at Epsom, hopefully out of trouble down the outside, inching to the front, then being a tough nut to pass. He needed every yard at York, stepping back up to 12f + natural improvement I think he'll be hard to beat as on evidence so far, there doesn't seem to be anything exceptional among his rivals.

I think he'll outstay them.

Jack_Kray 25 May 16 12:43 Joined: 03 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 749 | Blogger: Jack_Kray's blog
Sandown, I was just about to post that WOD reminds me of Lammtarra at this stage - strong and workmanlike, with tons of stamina. He's never going to coast past horses on the bridle, but kept up to his work from some way out. Even his odds on Wolves win, he was being pushed along before the straight.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic#Judging_frequency_and_probability

one major problem here fellas

lamtarra was triple his price

ulyssses will prove all the doubters wrong and win by a mile. lol

It's just the bookies being cautious. Bet they haven't taken £5000 between them on him.

This is looking a serious lay if you judge form on facts rather than what might be....

The more I see reruns of the Irish 2000 the more Bravery's effort reminds me of Qualify's in last year's Irish 1000 - and we all know what happened next.

They should run him in my humble.

Whatever happens you'll definitely get considerably better than 50% higher on at least 4 of the front 5, "in-running". 

Good luck.

I reckon that a lot on here are scratching around now for value. What is abundantly clear, is that Coolmore do not have yet another Pegasus in the stable, and due to the temporary demise of Midterm, others are taking the supplementary route as an afterthought.

A few very unfair quotes about Ulysses being made that I do not agree with. Firstly, I think we are all in agreement that it is a poor year, quite similar to the Sir Percy year. But, look at that race. If Hala Bek hadn't have decided to do an " Ile De Chypre", he would have won. He was only a maiden winner coming into the race. The second, Dragon Dancer, was a maiden and ran a screamer to be short headed. The third was a donkey called Dylan Thomas, who was already a group winner and went onto better things. Ergo, maiden winners shouldn't be eliminated on the basis of just a solitary win.

Secondly, if Midterm hadn't have flopped at York, then he'd be a short priced fav, Ulysses would still be 20+ and few would be talking about him. But, things ain't gone to plan for the stable and now Ulysses is their main hope. Of all the trials, wether group class or not, he's the only one whom never had a race and won effortlessly, looking even better the further he went. The money coming for him is very significant , he must be tearing up the gallops to half in price.
,
Thirdly, all great derby winners only had 7 letters in their name, if you're not on each way at double figures, then you've missed the boat. Harzand would be interesting if supplemented. Dermoptera weld has summat like a 50% sr win and place over here in the last 5 years.

It looks an open race but I'd not be the slightest bit surprised if there is a clear and outstanding winner in the end from one of the many "inexperienced" runners but who though? If Midterm had not run in the Dante he'd still be 'fav' I'd imagine and so would UAR if Port Douglas was not in the Chester Vase.

With little rain forecast the ground could be on the fast side (good/good to firm), Harzand conducive or not?

If it were not so misty in the morning, the dampness would not of washed out the chalked up winner on the wishing well outside the Amato pub!

Ulysses, and Bravery, considering he has recently been mentioned fail on some key stats.

All of the last 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ last time (8 of 10 posted RPR of 118+)

10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts

9 of 10 winners had won a group race


With Wings of Desire I still come back to his sire Pivotal.

Last 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 9.0F+ (Crystal clear by all accounts)


I think it comes down to only 4- Cloth Of Stars, Moonlight Magic, US Army Ranger, and the big, backward Sea The Stars colt Harzand if it comes up soft or good going. I can see that lot well clear of the rest with a straight head but this year is considerably more puzzling than I can remember. I have nailed my mast to Jim Bolger's after he mentioned him comparable to St Jovite.