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Horse Antepost
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These 1256 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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Replies: 1,256
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cheers sandown. i'm guessing 15 might be good enough to win this year
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125
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sandown i understand the stat thing and hadn't actually seen your earlier post
i know you use racing post ratings so what do you see this year's winner running too?? my reasons for fancying this horse, is the horses upside with ground and distance and i don't see massive improvement from the others do you honestly believe there is a 125 running here??? i would go as far to say this is a poor renewal kris kin, sir percy and even pour moi class wise which tells you that i believe a rating between 118-120 can win the day, just an opinion but that is where i am at with these horses running |
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GREEDISGOOD
You may wish to modify your comments about WOD's ability to handle the track following Gosden's comments this morning “Frankie was really happy with him and is thrilled with way he has come on mentally - this place takes no prisoners,” he said. “He loved the way he came down the hill, changed his legs and picked up when he wanted. He’s learnt a lot, come on strongly and didn’t blow much after. “He’s got a cool mind on him and he was business like today. We were not coming here for a flat-out piece of work, we were coming here to learn about the track.” |
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Harzand "a distinct possibility" to line up.
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harry c
I use both RPR's and my own ratings based on sectional times where I can get them. There is an evens chance that we see a 125 rating.  Incidently, on my ratings Pour Moi was much better than his RPR of 121 given his slast 2f time. Well above average imo. To my mind there are 3 horses in the race who are potential big improvers, Ulysses, USAR,and WOD in that order. Given WOD has less to find, he is the one most likely to achieve 125 or better on the day imo. Later in the year, who knows? Most runners improve consierably for the race so I wouldn't say by any means that this may be a below average ear. What it doesn't have is one or two who have shown blinding form to win it so far. |
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Despite WOD coming down the Epsom hill well I'm still not keen on him on account of his lack of race experience, proximity of Deauville (beaten 2x in Gp 2 company and Foundation), a troubled passage encountered by Foundation and the injury incurred by Midterm during the race ie not solid form to warrant near 'fav'. As for Ulyssess the current price is a joke, and most unlikely to contract between now and race day.
Cloth Of Stars (CoS) and PD are the two I fear most as I do not have any benchmark for the former and a step up in distance for the latter has brought about a mega improvement in his form. |
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Headmaster
Harzand "a distinct possibility" to line up. Source? Ground? (Given as soft now so OK for Harzand but good chance it will dry out as it usually does) |
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Despite WOD coming down the Epsom hill well I'm still not keen on him on account of his lack of race experience
The Derby will be his 4th run, the top category with 11 wins in the past 27 years. |
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Source - Dermot Weld
Not overly hard to find Sandown, google "harzand a distinct possibility" |
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Thanks H
Largest field for a while maybe? |
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To my mind there are 3 horses in the race who are potential big improvers, Ulysses, USAR,and WOD in that order. Given WOD has less to find, he is the one most likely to achieve 125 or better on the day imo. Later in the year, who knows?
you know what sandown i totally agree with this statement and is actually where i am at tbh... i tend to put my own ceiling on horses that is a bit brutal to most, just in regards to what i believe they can run on the day when i haven't got a totally solid rating, i just think this may come to soon for us army ranger and he is just more a work in progress type horse for me that i haven't got a full angle on, he may well surprise me but we really are having to take an under price about him... it will be interesting to see the gosden horse back up on fast ground but he is improving fast...maassat a horse nobody wants to talk about because he is thought not able to stay surely is better than all these at up to a distance and if he had turned up in the dante i would of thought he would of been second in it really is a tricky affair this and much to ponder but a good race for debate |
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he's a very overpriced horse this harzand interesting comments from smullen after his win, i didn't think they were bringing him tbh
He´s a progressive big colt - a nice big horse. They went a very good gallop for the ground and he came home very well. It was a really good trial, the best trial run in Ireland this year. I love the way he switches off and is very relaxed. He´s still green and has a lot to learn - trainer Dermot Weld. It was run at a very true pace; there was no hiding place today and that brought out the best in our horse. I think he is too big and heavy to go around Epsom. He could make an Irish Derby horse but personally I think he could be a Doncaster Leger horse - rider Pat Smullen. |
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sure sandown. i don't get right all the time, going full pace around epsom is a diff story though. I'm results orientated, not too bothered tbh as long as i get the winner and in profit.
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i see ulysses is 6-1. looks like we'll have a new fav soon. lol
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. i don't get right all the time, going full pace around epsom is a diff story thoug
Think you will find that do not go full pace around the most awkward part 1.e Tattenham corner, for the obvious reason that its dnagerous. the camber on the straight is the part where some horses lose their stride, change legs and drift to the rail. The Weld horse looks the most obvious one to be ill-suited to the track. |
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Belated thanks for the stats, Sandown and Madhu.
Here is link to Irish Times article with quotes by Dermot Weld about Harzand: http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/dermot-weld-says-harzand-a-possibility-for-epsom-derby-1.2657819?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter I see Harzand as a big threat but would want a more definitive commitment to the race before getting involved. At the risk of repeating myself, I would n't take the Ballysax form with Moonlight Magic literally either. I get that Ulysses, US Army Ranger and Wings Of Desire are the likelier big improvers but they're priced up as if that improvement is probable rather than possible. There is nothing to say that some of those with more experience at 2yo are n't open to plenty of improvement too. I certainly would n't be writing Deauville off - Royal Lodge form has solid enough look, would n't have liked the ground at Donny in the RP Trophy and reversed the form with Foundation from both those races for step up in trip and better ground in the Dante so that turnaround suggests he's still improving. I also don't necessarily buy into the media driven assumption that Moore will ride USAR either - he might do but he'll make a decision based on which horse he thinks has best chance of winning (obviously with input from AOB) - the market will look very different if Moore chooses other than USAR. |
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Words are like leaves; and where they most abound,
Much fruit of sense beneath is rarely found. False eloquence, like the prismatic glass, Its gaudy colours spreads on every place; |
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kincsem, did you copy and paste that or did you make that up? If you made that up...that's very eloquent
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Just seen the Wings Of Desire gallop. Don't think it will have anyone rushing to the windows.
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I do not rate the Dante form given what happened to the principal runners eg Midterm and Foundation who beat Deauville in the Racing Post Trophy easily despite being blocked by a wall of horses, the same with the Derrinstown Stud Derby where Shogun and Idaho were too far behind to mount a proper challenge to Moonlight Magic. Harzand, on the other hand if turning up, will start a lot shorter than the current 29/1 here and could give the current market leaders a big scare.
As for Ulysses, I'd walk to Epsom for the next three Derby if he wins! |
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that bad was it headmaster? looks like they'll run it regardless,
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something is wrong with yr text input rease
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^ sorry, was trying to say that I agreed and that Frankie was getting much more animated than the jockey on the horse just behind.
Does anybody know who the two horses working with him were? |
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nothing to worry about then, as it did the same thing from the rear in the dante. looks like it will be first off the bridle in the derby too. any idea how it handled the undulations , was it keen?
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Rounded action, bit of knee, not a typical Epsom type and tother two travelling all over him. I've averaged out at 133/1 but have been giving a bit back over the last week or two and pleased with that course of action. Nothing in this race should be less than 6/1 atm.
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(I'd probably have him fav for the Leger though)
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Would n't say he was keen but they came around the bend very wide and very slowly, he just did n't look very dynamic in the straight, think Epsom has had plenty of rain so that might not have helped.
Frankie dismissed it as just the way he works ( he would, would n't he?) and it was also pointed out that general consensus was that Jack Hobbs worked better than Golden Horn this time last year. Probably no big deal but it would n't excite you if you were a backer. |
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Reaseheath- Von Blucher, an 86-rated stablemate
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Thanks, Madhu
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for your perusal GIG- let us know what you think about his balance and center if gravity.
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/43203/wings-of-desire-delights-john-gosden-in-epsom-workout |
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* of
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“Cool” Wings Of Desire flies in Epsom workout???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
John Gosden was in buoyant mood after putting leading Investec Derby fancy Wings Of Desire through his paces at Epsom on Tuesday. This month’s Dante winner, who is disputing favouritism at around 7-2 for next Saturday's race, worked over a mile with two stablemates at the course’s Breakfast With Stars event and was pushed out firmly to the line by Frankie Dettori. The Pivotal colt, who was unraced as a two-year-old and did not make his debut until April 13, put his head down and ran straight when encouraged to belatedly engage top gear and put Von Blucher, an 86-rated stablemate, in his place. Gosden, seeking a third Derby success after the victories of Golden Horn last year and Benny The Dip in 1999, was delighted to be able to give the flashy chestnut a dress rehearsal ahead of his date with destiny. “Frankie was really happy with him, and is thrilled with way he has come on mentally. This place takes no prisoners,” he said. “He loved the way he came down the hill, changed his legs nicely in the straight and picked up when he wanted. He’s learned a lot, come on strongly and didn’t blow much after. “He’s got a cool mind on him and I like the way he was business like today. We were not coming here for a flat-out piece of work, we were coming here [for him] to learn about the track.” Derby winners who did not race as a two-year-old are a rare breed - Reference Point and Ruler Of The World are the only pair since 1974 - and Gosden is full of admiration for the way Wings Of Desire has grasped what is required of him in a short space of time. Reference Point really? Has there ever been a racecourse gallop where connections havent been delighted? I cant recall 1. Trainers/Journalists do spout some bollax |
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Shambles. Swap RP for Commander In Chief imo. Who wrote that Geoff? Pretty ropey from start to finish...
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I give you Telescope at Lingfield 3 years ago, so bad the media described it as 'workmanlike' - he was pulled from the Derby the following day after which the gallop was described as 'lacklustre' and 'unimpressive'
He was injured to be fair. |