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Horse Antepost
Epsom DERBY 2016
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There are also a few key trends over the last ten years that would put you off Ulysses-
10 of 10 winners had won at least 50% of their career starts 10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ last time out. 9 of 10 winners had won a group race (you could argue a few points there regarding the running of Workforce in the 2010 Dante) |
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Not really Ive laid The Gurkha/Midterm/Wings Of Desire/Us Army ranger @ around 9/2 ish so had plenty of field money in the book.
Horses like Massatt /Port Douglas/Moonlight Magic i can see shortening significantly plus Cloth Of Stars altho price of that has contracted significantly in last couple of weeks. I cant see Ulysses would have finished in front of any of the above 4 in their respective trials hence hes underpiced and they overpriced imo. |
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In the past 27 years, the number of Derby winners by number of runs (including race) and average improvement
Race Wins Av Impr 4 11 8 5 4 4 3 3 20 6 3 5 8 3 6 9 2 4 2 1 23 |
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i really like that tactic geoff. i haven't layed anything here yet but probably will lay anything that goes sub 2.0 in running, but happy with my bets so far
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If he had been a serious Epsom Derby colt in Stoutes eyes then he would have been running @ Chester for the experience /conditioning as per Kris Kin, and even if hed got beat would have been a far better prep for a Derby colt.
Just looks like a hoss as stated previously that was probably targetting King Edward but The Derby comes to the forefront due to Midterm falling by the wayside. |
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geoff i would wait a bit for stoute fever to ride its wave (7-1 with stan james right now - almost going near favoritism) -then lay.
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Can anyone remember the Stoute beast that was Epsom antepost favourite a few years ago, ran abysmally and forgotten?
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Going by the changes in the bookies markets, Ulysses, Humphrey Bogart and Wings of Desire are the only horses supplemented today with Linguistic the absentee.
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Geoff m, regarding the Leicester maiden that Ulysses ran in you mentioned Terimon winning it. Terimon actually won a different one just a week before Epsom but interesting that Stoute won it with Tartan Bearer in 2008 who would have won the Derby if a certain Bolger horse wouldn't have turned up.
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kincsem- Was it the Chester Vase winner Doctor Fremantle?
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No it is not him he went on as a 4yo.
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I know little of the French one and I just cannot back any of the English ones including WOD either. I do not value the win of Moonlight Magic in Ireland and I just hope the almighty trainer, AOB, redeems himself with UAR and Even Song in two weeks' time after the howlers with AFB and Minding at the weekend.
So, UAR and PD are my choice, a one two for AOB in the Derby (hopefully) - reverse f/c. |
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fair enough geoff and i haven't backed the horse, i just think this is a very open race and he is a potential big improver over the distance and better ground...anyway this is where i'm at at present
i'm afraid that there really isn't any real top notchers like you have named above this year which means we have to find something to win... i still rate the dante the best trail to be run but am not that keen on anything from the race, i don't know why but i still feel foundation was the moral winner but didn't get a run and although the winner is improving his price makes no appeal, he might win but not with my money, it will be interesting to see how he backs up on proper quick ground i don't get the angle with us army ranger and i actually thought moore took him into the red in order to win and i wonder how he will back up, he did not look a derby winner to me and neither did the second but the second may just outrun his odds and place maybe...interesting that o'brien said after the race that he thought the second is a solid group 2 horse so getting weight maybe the winner either needs more time in which to fulfill his potential or he isn't that good at this stage...it will be interesting to see how us army progresses but taking 4/1 is horrible the derrinstown trail i just cannot get an angle on i was hoping the solid ventura storm would run well and tirmizi(colty) also, but neither did and they finished in a bunch...the winner looks ok at a level but the race was littered with disappointing types and i suspect it is just average form, the winner should improve on better ground and distance so would be foolish to dismiss totally but he himself never does anything easily so a place at best although not for me the guineas second for me can outrun his odds and maybe place i can see him looming up with 2f to run but maybe just get outstayed, you are getting the right price in order to find out and he isn't a mug against these horses cloth of stars is an interesting runner for me and he ran against a solid group 1 horse in the prix Greffulhe, i have to say am a bit sick i didn't nab the 25/1 on him after his win but hey ho...i agree with sandown earlier in thread in regards him having 6 runs but maybe that is through his keeness in his races the time that day was good...i have a few concerns about the form, the second who i think is a very good soft ground horse didn't have his ground and was returning off the lay off and the third also tempers enthusiasm but he did it well...a big field here looks likely so if he is keen and dropped out in rear which seems likely it isn't going to be easy and if ridden prominently i can see him getting lit up and losing his chance, he is likeable and solid but i do have concerns in the price we have to take here...despite my concerns he is quite solid, will i back i don't know but have been on the fence so will have to see come the day i see ulysses has his knockers but i quite like him here and he is at least improving which can't be said for a lot of these, i know he beat drains last time but visually he looked good and i can totally understand the punt...he looks very uncomplicated to ride and his mother took time to find top gear, he looks like improving for the step up in distance and better ground and would be my choice at this stage against these horses, massaat is slightly keen and he may just get run down but he shouldn't be 16/1 against these and he is is pretty uncomplicated, he will be on the snaff at the 2 pole imo cloth of stars also appeals but i'd sooner see him settle in the run before considering a bet at the odds anyway no bet for me at this stage and a very open race |
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its going to b a big field
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Madhu
I thought the name was one word. |
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Enjoying the stats fest Sandown and Madhu - thanks.
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kincsem - can you tighten 'a few years ago' and when you say ran abysmally do you mean in a trial or the main event? I likes quizzes, me.
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kincsem- Dee stakes winner Tajaaweed?
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Here we are the cavalry is coming!
Derby entry Gershwin wins at Leicester The David Lanigan-trained Gershwin was a cosy winner at Leicester but his trainer appeared to pour cold water on a trip to Epsom: "I think we're too late for the English Derby. He's in there, we'll sit down and have a think." |
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Entrepreneur
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It think it might be time to begin my Oaks and Derby analysis.
Recently I read some 20 year old Weekender articles by James Underwood where he classed sires on the dam line into classic, top class, good class / stayer, middle-distance, miler, sprinter. He liked to see quality on the dam line of Epsom classic candidates in the first three (?) generations. I might have a go at automating that. Takes quill pin and dips in inkwell .... |
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* pen
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No. The Stoute nag I think had "well" bell " or something like that in the name.
It was all the rage, about 4/1, going well on the gallops, yada yada, and couldn't run a yard. |
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The Headmaster
If it was a quiz I would know the answer.  I think this might have been unraced, or raced once at the backend. |
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Ran in a trial then Kincs? Not the Derby? Or neither? We'll crack this nut
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Posts crossed, soz
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I don't think it ran in a trial. Within the last ten years, perhaps five.
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Carlton House?
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right approach
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None of those. I think it didn't run in the Derby.
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Would someone like to telephone Sir Michael and ask?
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Who owned it?
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ballymacol nap
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Greek Well?
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Headmaster
I think you may have hit the dud on the head. |
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Harry, you seem to be quite harsh on US Army Ranger for beating only a group 2 colt receiving weight, yet you are quite keen on Ulysses despite the fact that on his second start he couldn't win a maiden against a subsequent handicap winner (slightly harsh comment perhaps but you get the idea). If you can run well against a genuine group 2 horse on your second start, I reckon you are entitled to run well in a group 1 on your 3rd start. I think Sandown's average improvement stats are extremely interesting. We don't now how much USAR will improve, but at the prices he surely represents a cracking bet.
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https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2006/jan/26/horseracing.gdnsport31
Top of the class, Headmaster, but then you already give the lessons.  |