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Horse Antepost

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Epsom DERBY 2016

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By:
impossible123
When: 16 May 16 14:13
Indeed, it's bookmakers' heaven - TG, to me, is unlikely to run too.

I believe Foundation is also down to run in the French Derby and could meet the Gurkha, if so, I'd take a chance with the former mainly on form. What puzzles me is why the connections of Galileo Gold (GG) have not considered the same race for him? I think GG will be suited by the race, and hosts the best form too.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 16 May 16 14:18
Don't think the Jockey Club is much of a turn on tbh impossible, not in the sheds anyway.  I'd rather have a star Miler that ripped his way through the season than a 2000Gns/French Derby winner.
By:
sinfin
When: 16 May 16 15:10
latest update from Patrick the powers us ranger out to 6 Humphrey bogart out to 40 nrnb far to big if he enters and the gurkha into 5/2 wat do they no
By:
Madhu
When: 16 May 16 15:19
Ditto The Headmaster. You could also look to The Ghurkha’s full sister Queen Nefertiti who won over 7f as a 2yo and was then highly tried over distances up to 1m ¼. That horse is nailed on for the French version, and with Found having a mid-season break, he is sure to be their top flight mile and a quarter horse when Minding mops up the 3yo female division.

As for kin Sam Walker is just a guy who plucks bogus rating figures out of thin air. Utter wise nodding after the event tripe merchant.
By:
kingG111111
When: 16 May 16 17:14
Anyone else think deauville could win ? Was only half fit last time and doesn't look the strongest race
By:
geoff m
When: 16 May 16 17:43
Think any of a dozen could win it. Probably as open a Derby pre race since Troy.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 16 May 16 18:13
Is there a French Derby antepost yet ? Would like to get around 3-4s on The Gurkha if possible
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 16 May 16 18:18

May 16, 2016 -- 8:13AM, impossible123 wrote:


Indeed, it's bookmakers' heaven - TG, to me, is unlikely to run too.I believe Foundation is also down to run in the French Derby and could meet the Gurkha, if so, I'd take a chance with the former mainly on form. What puzzles me is why the connections of Galileo Gold (GG) have not considered the same race for him? I think GG will be suited by the race, and hosts the best form too.


the dante was poor form tbh.  not surprised if any of the dante first three rerouted to france.

By:
geoff m
When: 16 May 16 18:18
4/1 with Sportsbook Greed if you can get more than a quid on good luck
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 16 May 16 18:19
cheers fella will try
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 16 May 16 18:30
aob has never won the french derby and has said all along for the gurhka that the french derby was the target. it may be a second string, but what a second string beast it is!
By:
impossible123
When: 16 May 16 19:20
TG has been backed as if he's a certain runner here, and Minding too into evens for The Oaks.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 16 May 16 19:32
5-2 on minding would have been a reasonable price given it is unproven at 1m 4f.  now unbackable.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 16 May 16 19:33
TG has been backed today because of the press.  Coolmore are never swayed by the press ;-)
By:
geoff m
When: 16 May 16 19:39
So Mi Dar non runner Oaks  lame
By:
sinfin
When: 16 May 16 19:47
oh my god that's anti post racing what a big winner for me back to the drawing board
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 16 May 16 22:56

May 16, 2016 -- 12:18PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:


May 16, 2016 --  2:13PM, impossible123 wrote:Indeed, it's bookmakers' heaven - TG, to me, is unlikely to run too.I believe Foundation is also down to run in the French Derby and could meet the Gurkha, if so, I'd take a chance with the former mainly on form. What puzzles me is why the connections of Galileo Gold (GG) have not considered the same race for him? I think GG will be suited by the race, and hosts the best form too.the dante was poor form tbh.  not surprised if any of the dante first three rerouted to france.


I disagree profoundly on both counts. Foundation won't be re-routed to France because he was always going there anyway. On what logical basis would Gosden then opt to also send Wings Of Desire to France when he is clearly his number one hope for Epsom? - that would be akin to AOB sending USAR to France. Deauville to France would be a headline writer's dream but the form book suggests to me he is near the top of the Ballydoyle pecking order for Epsom.

If you accept that Deauville improved for the step up in trip and better ground then the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Dante ran close to their Royal Lodge form - the Racing Post Trophy blurs the lines a little but that was a messy race in which Foundation was unlucky and Deauville probably did n't like the ground.

The clock would n't be my forte but I note the Dante was quicker than the Middleton for the older fillies 30 mins earlier and also quicker than So Mi Dar's Musidora romp the previous day (albeit the ground was a tad quicker on Thursday)

I reckon the Dante form will turn out to be pretty good in the fullness of time and expect the winner to come from either there or the Derrinstown. Still think Moonlight Magic is most likely winner and I like Muntazah also though there is a nagging thought with that one that he might be a better 4yo over 10f - reminds me a little of Mukhadram of recent vintage.

Deauville is n't the sexiest Ballydoyle contender but I would n't be that surprised if he ended up being Ryan Moore's Derby ride.

By:
lordnoise
When: 17 May 16 11:01
The Gurkhas staying credentials seem to rest on Cumanis (ex O'Brien) QUEST FOR PEACE (Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer mare). 2 x G3 12f wins at Ascot and Goodwood and a listed win over 14f. Then off to Oz where 1.5 lengths behind the winner of the Caulfield Cup before finishing a respectible 6.25 lengths behind the winner in the Melbourne Cup itself. Theres stamina sloshing around in the gene pool somewhere and there is only one Derby.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 16 11:11
I hope The Gurkhas runs but I doubt it will because it's too pacy, and more likely for the French Derby; if it does, sobeit, I can get bigger prices for his stablemates eg UAR and Port Douglas. I'm not a fan of Deauville as I do not firmly believe he stays 12f well unlike his stablemates who ran in the Chester Vase.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 17 May 16 11:14

May 16, 2016 -- 4:56PM, ReaseHeath wrote:


May 16, 2016 --  6:18PM, GREEDISGOOD wrote:May 16, 2016 --  2:13PM, impossible123 wrote:Indeed, it's bookmakers' heaven - TG, to me, is unlikely to run too.I believe Foundation is also down to run in the French Derby and could meet the Gurkha, if so, I'd take a chance with the former mainly on form. What puzzles me is why the connections of Galileo Gold (GG) have not considered the same race for him? I think GG will be suited by the race, and hosts the best form too.the dante was poor form tbh.  not surprised if any of the dante first three rerouted to france.I disagree profoundly on both counts. Foundation won't be re-routed to France because he was always going there anyway. On what logical basis would Gosden then opt to also send Wings Of Desire to France when he is clearly his number one hope for Epsom? - that would be akin to AOB sending USAR to France. Deauville to France would be a headline writer's dream but the form book suggests to me he is near the top of the Ballydoyle pecking order for Epsom.If you accept that Deauville improved for the step up in trip and better ground then the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Dante ran close to their Royal Lodge form - the Racing Post Trophy blurs the lines a little but that was a messy race in which Foundation was unlucky and Deauville probably did n't like the ground.The clock would n't be my forte but I note the Dante was quicker than the Middleton for the older fillies 30 mins earlier and also quicker than So Mi Dar's Musidora romp the previous day (albeit the ground was a tad quicker on Thursday)I reckon the Dante form will turn out to be pretty good in the fullness of time and expect the winner to come from either there or the Derrinstown. Still think Moonlight Magic is most likely winner and I like Muntazah also though there is a nagging thought with that one that he might be a better 4yo over 10f - reminds me a little of Mukhadram of recent vintage.Deauville is n't the sexiest Ballydoyle contender but I would n't be that surprised if he ended up being Ryan Moore's Derby ride.


deauville was the 3rd string you are correct.  in the dante, it ran the last 3 furlongs quicker , however, the biggest concern was the last furlong as it was slowing down according to stats.  however, as you say everyone knew it was not match fit that day.  from a visual pont of view 2f out it looked like it was going to win by a mile, and if it had won, you'd prob see it as 3-1 fav for the derby.  but my concern is 1m 4f, the french derby trip looks ideal but i think would need to be supplemented and i don;t think the owners are mega rich ala coolmore

By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 16 11:17
Midterm is still a possibility for the Derby - he was sore in a hamstring behind after the Dante - whatever that might mean. Anyway, there is a legitimate reason behind his lacklustre run at York.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 16 11:35
This is what John Gosden think about The Gurkha: "I've got to be honest, I think (The Gurkha) beat Group Three horses in France. A horse of my wife was beaten a length for second. I expect Aiden to turn up with six colts at least (at Epsom) and I expect Minding to remain in the Oaks."
By:
kincsem
When: 17 May 16 12:11
A lame excuse. Plain
By:
dunlaying
When: 17 May 16 12:15
The support for The Gurkha is not based upon one piece of form.

If you doubt that The Gurkha will get 12f , a reasonable viewpoint , then you might also have reservations about Minding staying as she is bred along similar lines.
By:
geoff m
When: 17 May 16 12:22
dunlaying
17 May 16 12:15
Joined: 12 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 3,159 | Blogger: dunlaying's blog
The support for The Gurkha is not based upon one piece of form.


I dont think anyone seriously considered The Gurkha as a legit Epsom Derby candidate till after sunday he was freely available @ 50s and above last week. He was probably a very unlikely runner for the derby this time last week.
So i would say the support is based upon one piece of form.
By:
dunlaying
When: 17 May 16 12:31
If you wish Geoff m you can say that the Moon is made of cheese.
By:
geoff m
When: 17 May 16 12:40
If you think his 1st 2 runs entitle him to be Dery fav Dunlaying then we will agree to differ.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 17 May 16 13:12

May 17, 2016 -- 6:15AM, dunlaying wrote:


The support for The Gurkha is not based upon one piece of form. If you doubt that The Gurkha will get 12f , a reasonable viewpoint , then you might also have reservations about Minding staying as she is bred along similar lines.


although minding is pure class, aob has already said he is not sure minding will get the trip.

By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 17 May 16 13:14

May 17, 2016 -- 6:22AM, geoff m wrote:


dunlaying17 May 16 12:15Joined: 12 Feb 11| Topic/replies: 3,159 | Blogger: dunlaying's blogThe support for The Gurkha is not based upon one piece of form.I dont think anyone seriously considered The Gurkha as a legit Epsom Derby candidate till after sunday he was freely available @ 50s and above last week. He was probably a very unlikely runner for the derby this time last week.So i would say the support is based upon one piece of form.


i was thinking about the 50s pre race too. i thought the gurhka - a clear 2nd string -was going to run very well though didn't expect it to win.  decided not too back for derby but don't regret it as it is clearly french derby bound.  which i have 50quid  at 4s now

By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 17 May 16 13:18
was just about to back midterm to cover....think i;ll pass now
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 17 May 16 13:21
There is some consolation for John Gosden, whose So Mi Dar has been ruled out of the Oaks through lameness, in the thought that his chance of Derby success may have been improved. The trainer feels his filly’s absence from Epsom next month makes it more likely that the star Irish filly Minding will be targeted at the Oaks rather than tilting at the colts race, in which Gosden will field Wings Of Desire, currently the 5-1 second-favourite.


John Gosden forced to rule So Mi Dar out of the Oaks due to lameness
Read more
Minding’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, now has “a lot of cards to play” in the Derby, Gosden said at a press conference here on Monday evening to promote the Investec-sponsored Classics. “So many runners, why would you need to run Minding when she can run in an Oaks?”

Indeed, Gosden expects his Irish rival to be mob-handed in the Derby and recalled the 2007 race, in which he ran the eventual fourth, Lucarno, while O’Brien had no fewer than eight runners. The Newmarket man is also more respectful than many have been about the quality of O’Brien’s likely runners.

“I think you’ve got very nice horses. US Army Ranger and the horse who was second to him [Port Douglas], they’re bloody good horses. I think Deauville’s a good horse.”

Gosden was especially taken by the success in France on Sunday of O’Brien’s The Gurkha. “He was impressive. I’ve got to be honest, I think he beat Group Three horses. A horse of my wife’s [Crazy Horse] was beaten a length for second and he’s a bit rusty. But he totally showed he’s a Group One horse, so he’s exciting if they run him there.

“Who knows, he could go to the St James’s Palace [at Royal Ascot in mid-June]. He could be that kind of speed. It’s not my business, all I know is I expect Aidan to turn up with about six colts at least and I expect Minding to remain in the Oaks. I’m sure they’ll do that.”

To some extent, Gosden is happy to have a Derby candidate at all, having believed as recently as the middle of last month that he would be unrepresented in the race he won last year. Wings Of Desire held a Derby entry initially but the trainer pulled him out on 7 March, when it would have cost £1,000 to stay in, believing instead the horse would go for the much less prestigious King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal meeting.

“I think it’s still a very good idea,” he joked. “Alas, I’ve been made a fool of. And he only did his first half-speed on 15 March.” Connections must now pay £75,000 to re-enter into the Derby.

For a colt to make such rapid progress, from first gallop to Derby contention, is unusual, Gosden readily conceded, though he sent out Tamure to be second at Epsom in 1995 after a similar preparation. Of Wings Of Desire, he said: “He’s got a gorgeous frame, good mind on him. And he’s done a lot of solid, steady stuff through the winter, but he’d never done any fast work until the third week of March. He’s learning quick.”

Referring to the colt’s success in York’s Dante Stakes last week, Gosden added: “I notice Frankie [Dettori] didn’t hit the front too soon because he’s still a baby but he’s a proper Derby horse, there’s no doubt about it. You’d just love to have got another run into him, that’s all. He’s a big, strapping, strong colt now and last year he wasn’t.”

While the trainer still feels that last year’s Derby winner, Golden Horn, might have won despite a mile and a half being a shade further than his optimum distance, Wings Of Desire is likely to prove a more thorough stayer. “It’ll be his best trip and I won’t bother bringing him back to a mile and a quarter again. Because if things go well, you’d probably put him away for a King George, something like that, he’s a proper mile and a half horse, like his brother [Eagle Top].”

But the very experienced Gosden has seen too much to be taking anything for granted. In Tamure’s year, he also ran the eventual third, Presenting, and still feels that horse would have won if his jockey had not taken the view that he knew better than to follow instructions. “Mr Cash Asmussen wouldn’t listen to me. I told Cash, go to the front, make the running, go for it, he stays, he’s a galloper.

“He just popped him in to give him a little air, then he couldn’t get out again until too late. Typical Asmussen, he always knew the name of The Unknown Soldier.

“There’s a banana skin round every corner. Look at So Mi Dar!”
By:
The Headmaster
When: 17 May 16 13:34
The Gurkha has gone forward at today's confirmation stage for the Irish 2000.  I thought he reminded me of Magician and if he runs on Saturday I wouldn't expect him to line up for the Derby
By:
The Headmaster
When: 17 May 16 13:48
I see Weld has put Derby entrant Ezanak in the Gallinule.  Will be very interesting to see how he gets on if declared.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 17 May 16 17:01
looks like the gurhka is being campaigned (or being seriously considered) over a mile. but i don;t expect it to run unless AFB is seriously off colour though.  Glad to see my posts regarding the gurhka  before haven't been for nothing
By:
sinfin
When: 17 May 16 17:29
according to todays racing post midterm will b struggling to make the race does not sound hopeful
By:
Sandown
When: 17 May 16 17:40
according to todays racing post midterm will b struggling to make the race does not sound hopeful

Maybe, maybe not.

It is not insurmountable or else we would have pulled the plug already.
By:
sinfin
When: 17 May 16 17:52
his got to impress aswell sounds not right also Idaho just bin matched at 50 ?
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 16 18:19
"The Gurkha has gone forward at today's confirmation stage for the Irish 2000"

Could it be as a precaution in case the ground turns against AFB eg soft/heavy as some rain has been predicted this week. AOB has done the same with Minding, I believe.

When has Midterm ever impressed at home? I think he'll run if he's recovered and worked his normal self. Considering he was running with a sore hamstring he did extremely well to finish 4th, and only beaten 5l by WOD in the Dante. And at 27/1 (not 4/1) it is quite tempting and has more chance - slim I admit - than the backers of So Mi Dar in the Oaks of getting a run, no one can dispute that surely.
By:
A_T
When: 17 May 16 19:10
I would be surprised if The Gurkha runs in Ireland just 6 days after France. Maybe just the usual Ballydoyle strategy of flooding a race with entries to put off the others.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 May 16 21:21
He's only in it incase they get way more rain than forecast.
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