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Epsom DERBY 2016

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By:
geoff m
When: 14 May 16 19:57
Has there ever been a Derby where the front 2 in the betting where unraced @ 2 and got beat on their 1st runs whilst neither starting fav.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 14 May 16 20:00
yes correct, I'm not massively worried about Midterm or Wings.  They will improve massively yes, but USAR could be a big price..so i;ll need to cover, but I like at least 8-1
By:
sinfin
When: 14 May 16 20:29
now deaville is very weak
By:
eric_morris
When: 14 May 16 20:31
geoff m doesnt sound like he has much of the front 2 in his book imo.
By:
eric_morris
When: 14 May 16 20:34
Dangerous game you need BOTH them in your book imo. They have the most potential for improvement at Epsom.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 May 16 21:43
Imagine the Derby finish is fought out between Humphrey Bogart and Viren's Army - both need to be supplemented - what a result for the layers, if so?
By:
sintonian
When: 14 May 16 21:59
Godolphin could have another string to their bow if they win the Listed Cocked Hat stakes at Goodwood this week with Prize Money. He ran a very respectable 2nd to Taqdeer, conceding him 8lb over Guineas weekend. His OR now 101 after just two runs. The last horse to win the Goodwood race for Godolphin was Rewilding who turned out to be pretty decent.
By:
ffs
When: 14 May 16 22:44
AO'B laughing himself sick.

Has absolutely nothing of any note, yet NAP to fill 3 of the first 5 places, given his horses' knowledge of the track and ease to train to peak on the day.

That said, there is something to like about USAR, but at the odds on here there are better options.
By:
ffs
When: 14 May 16 22:49
Also, have to forgive one/two the Derrinstown race - terrible positioning to try win the race, really looked more like a piece of work / education. Idaho in particular was given an impossible task and I think the run-in at Epsom will suit him well.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 May 16 23:15
Where UAR finish Port Douglas will be close by - the question is, infront on behind? As for WOD he'll do well to stay the trip and negotiate the bends and undulations of Epsom, I believe.
By:
kincsem
When: 15 May 16 05:24
sintonian
I think there are six Derby entries in the Cocked Hat next Friday, and perhaps one who might be supplemented.
Is this a chance for them to boost their rating to prevent them missing the Derby due to a low official rating?
I see William Haggas has Sky Kingdom in the Cocked Hat, a race his Storm The Stars won last year before finishing third in the Derby.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 07:36
Are we going to go unusually deep into Derby trial season this year?  The Cocked Hat, Fairway, Irish 2000, Gallinule and probably some Maiden and the odd Handicap could all throw up further clues. Yikes.
By:
sintonian
When: 15 May 16 08:34
It looks like one of those years Headmaster. Any clue could find some gold. Excited

Yes that is possible Kinscem. With regards to Prize Money, I won't be backing him for the Derby just yet even though he is 50/1 so no harm chucking a tenner at him, but I do wonder if he might be their St.Leger horse. He is by Authorised who Godolphin have done well with... Elite Army went 5/1 fav for the St.Leger a couple of years back after winning the 3yo handicap at Royal Ascot so I wonder if they see Prize Money in the same light.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 09:16
Pretty sure they're giving him the chance to earn his Derby ticket first, sint.  I heard Fairway so the Cocked Hat entry can only be a positive.

Anyone know where we are with UAE Prince?  That Leicester maiden looked hot beforehand and has done nothing to dispel that view subsequently.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 12:22
If AOB's second string - The Gurkha wins today, I would say USAR is a strong bet for the derby.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 12:30
If Crazy Horse wins does that make Wings Of Desire a strong bet too?
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 13:02
i see that logic.... but WOD doesn't have the balance and no-one is denying that.  i'll wait and see what the gurkha does, if it runs well , i'll have to cover my position on usar.  in 3 weeks time i want all my positions covered
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 13:21
I don't see that logic to be honest!Crazy
By:
Charlton2005
When: 15 May 16 13:24
these two are like a gepeto and pinnochio
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 13:43
Every day's a school day, Charlton Laugh
Wink
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 13:43
in racing everyones an expertExcited
By:
Charlton2005
When: 15 May 16 13:56
The Headmaster 15 May 16 13:43 Joined: 14 Nov 01 | Topic/replies: 2,634 | Blogger: The Headmaster's blog
Every day's a school day, Charlton Laugh
Wink


Grin
By:
Madhu
When: 15 May 16 14:07
What an amazing year for Derby horses!

Connections of Ulysses are to discuss whether to pitch the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt into the Investec Derby following his impressive victory in a Newbury maiden on Friday.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10282870/derby-bid-under-consideration-for-ulysses
By:
geoff m
When: 15 May 16 14:27
another maiden @ start of year getting beat on its 3 yr old debut likely to come into derby reckogning.
Unbelieveable Jeff.Laugh
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 14:51
Given we're being enocuraged to take 20/1 about horses that have only won a Maiden I thought the 250+ Blue De Vega was worth a swipe.  And I'll probably keep swiping until I come to my senses.

Redvers says this is their star 3yo this year.  He's got bags of stamina on the distaff side and geting beat by a good, racefit horse giving him 3lbs on debut was no disgrace. Is it Irish 2000 next or have I done my dough already?
By:
Charlton2005
When: 15 May 16 14:53
Given we're being enocuraged to take 20/1 about horses that have only won a Maiden I thought the 250+ Blue De Vega was worth a swipe.

if he or awtaad show up they would be my bet. gl, hope he runs
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 14:58
Had a wee nibble on Awtaad too, Charlton - but not much hope in his pedigree beyond 10f, the way I read it anyway.
By:
Madhu
When: 15 May 16 15:40
I'm sticking with Moonlight Magic. Jim Bolger making only a slight comment about comparison with St Jovite is good enough for me. I would hazard a guess it will be the usual view of the majority of the field strung out and tailed off looking back down the field from the winner near the winning post. US Army Ranger has enormous potential its there for all to see but would have to overcome obvious immaturity and inexperience.I honestly would like him to do the business though but there is no value with him. Wings of Desire is a Pivotal colt with no chance but I could see him doing an Environment Friend and running well in the Eclispe but that would only happen if Postponed and Found give the race a miss in favour of mid-season break and Minding is not routed there. Cloth of Stars is interesting given who trains him and that he managed to win both the Prix La Force and Prix Greffulhe, while Pour Moi could only win the latter. We will know a lot more after Mickael Barzalona has ridden him copybook like  five years ago at the 'Breakfast With The Stars' morning at Epsom. Incidentally the one horse missing from the party is Ultra by all accounts for me.I cant see Midterm having a turn around like Workforce (seems like everyone knew that was a proper horse all the way through) and living up to the hype, time will tell misplaced if you ask me.  I always wondered if there were stats for first foals as that did put me off him as well. All in all come the day I think Moonlight Magic will be half the odds and so I'll keep adding to him over the next few weeks, and if there is any whisper of more confidence coming from Jim Bolger, I can see him being close to favouritism at the off. As for 'another unraced @ start of year getting beat on its 3 yr old debut' and The Gurkha, even as French guineas winner, he wouldn't interest me either! A 1000 to 70 for Ulysses as well is kin mind-boggling.
By:
geoff m
When: 15 May 16 15:43
another 3 year old unraced hoss beaten on its debut races to the front of the market.
But this was CLASS will it stay?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 16:02
Showed a lot of pace there.  Had them cooked shortly after the 2 pole.  If he stays 12f properly we have a machine on our hands gentlemen, but I doubt it.

Contrary to one opinion the key horse to tie The Gurkha into at Ballydoyle is not UAR but surely Air Force Blue?  If he fluffs his lines again they'll no doubt point The Gurkha at the St James's Palace.  If AFB looks ok though, and bear in mind Coolmore are desperate to produce a stallion son of War Front with Big John sunk to the nuts in this under-achieving piece of yankee junk, I can't see The Gurkha being given the chance to burst that bubble at Royal Ascot. So if AFB is on course for Ascot where does The Gurkha go?  Maybe we should just believe them for once and settle for the Jockey Club before, I would suggest, a Cape Blanco-style campaign.

Gurkha next start (Headbet):
4/5 Jockey Club
7/4 St James
7/4 Derby
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 16:10
Headmaster,  I know you will laugh with my logic but I Just backed USAR for the Derby.  If USAR can canter with the gurkha like that ,  i think USAR is the clear pick now.  I am a man of my word.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 16:12
not sure why the gurkha is 4-1 for epsom...this is complete and utter madness.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 16:14
Not privy to the dark arts of Ballydoyle work mornings, Greed.  Has UAR been on the snaff with The Gurkha then?  I could see why that would give you confidence tbf, if The Gurkha is a good work horse, carrying the same weights etc etc
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 16:16
i did say the gurkha was the marker... and a clear second string...but the thing which makes me sick is that the bookies are playing tricks on ppl by making the gurkha fav dfor the UK derby.   that's a total trap IMO. so what happened to the other gosden horse in that race?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 16:17
Soz mate - has UAR been smashing up The Gurkha at home?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 16 16:18
I have noted that ever since Le Gurkha quickened and put 5 lengths into the Poulains field UAR has done nothing but drift.... Confused
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 16:19
apparently so.
By:
impossible123
When: 15 May 16 16:19
The Gurkha is not for me; it show to much pace for a probable Epsom Derby winner - more of a french Derby - and the form of the French 2000G is suspect given The Gurkha finished well behind Claudio Monteverdi. The price is bordering on the ridiculous now.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 16:20
and the gurkha is fav...shows you what a 5l length  win can do to get ppl in slightest bit excited.
By:
GREEDISGOOD
When: 15 May 16 16:21
in my books providing USAR shows what he shows at home, he'll be a clear cut winner in a month's time.  digusting odds though
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