Midterm's run is baffling. Excuses given don't inspire confidence. Worktop was beaten in this but would take a lot of salt to think he could win a Derby in 3 weeks. Wings of Desire has to be a contender(time above average) and it looks like it will stay.  USAR fav by default

I'm just back in the door so didn't see the race.
Derby market shake-up, flip-flopping favourites, turnup for the book and all that.
I'm guessing the ground was a bit faster than they've run on for a while.
You can't beat the Derby for a bit of confusion and mystery.

you don't really need to watch the wolvs rerun.. the dante said it all IMO.

Much similar profile to UAR's profile then, except IMO UAR has superb balance.  If WOD had the balance and poise  I would defo be a backer at ladbrokes 7-.

This is the reason i covered my positions on the race with Wings of Desire at prices up to 27 last night. If I was the owner I would be asking why he cost me £75,000 supplement just to keep a low profile with the horse. Suppose Gosden can tell him to use the Dante winnings but the fact he ran him in the dante means he had the Derby in mind. They knew as Dettori swapped mounts from Foundation. Gosden will get away with it as the owner will be chuffed to have the Dante winner and Derby favourite.

eric_morris 22 Mar 16 23:44 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,167 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
The flat is tougher now as Gosden is very poor in giving out accurate information on his steers. Rare Derby and Arc double winner Golden Horn was underplayed by Gosden right up until the Dante imo intentionally. Not for financial reasons but dont think he likes the pressure of having the best. This costs antepost punters financially the bookies had a virtual skinner on the Derby thanks to Gosden not letting the public know the real quality he was seeing at home. These are the worst type of trainers for antepost punters.
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Small book this year, also took the 5s after

Description    Type    Odds    Stake (£)    Liability (£)    Potential Profit (£)    Status
12-May-16 15:24:34    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68297731776 | Matched 12-May-16 15:25:08    Back    5.00    100.00    --    400.00    Matched
11-May-16 13:33:09    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68237324033 | Matched 11-May-16 13:36:42    Back    24.00    20.00    --    460.00    Matched
11-May-16 13:25:18    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68236979835 | Matched 11-May-16 13:25:18    Back    24.00    2.00    --    46.00    Matched
11-May-16 13:05:12    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68236130094 | Matched 11-May-16 13:05:12    Back    24.00    2.69    --    61.87    Matched
11-May-16 13:04:43    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68236115576 | Matched 11-May-16 13:04:43    Back    25.00    2.00    --    48.00    Matched
11-May-16 13:04:03    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68236091070 | Matched 11-May-16 13:04:03    Back    25.00    3.00    --    72.00    Matched
11-May-16 13:01:21    Epsom 4th Jun Foundation-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235970511 | Matched 11-May-16 13:01:21    Back    21.07    20.00    --    401.46    Matched
11-May-16 13:00:30    Epsom 4th Jun Deauville-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235941055 | Matched 11-May-16 13:00:30    Back    30.00    4.00    --    116.00    Matched
11-May-16 13:00:07    Epsom 4th Jun Deauville-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235925607 | Matched 11-May-16 13:00:07    Back    30.04    10.00    --    290.40    Matched
11-May-16 12:58:27    Epsom 4th Jun Deauville-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235874481 | Matched 11-May-16 12:58:27    Back    32.00    20.00    --    620.00    Matched
11-May-16 12:56:56    Epsom 4th Jun Foundation-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235826436 | Matched 11-May-16 12:56:56    Back    22.49    24.00    --    515.81    Matched
11-May-16 12:55:55    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235792731 | Matched 11-May-16 12:55:55    Back    27.00    7.00    --    182.00    Matched
11-May-16 12:54:03    Epsom 4th Jun Wings of Desire-The Derby | Betfair Bet ID 1:68235733685 | Matched 11-May-16 12:54:03    Back    28.92    5.31    --    148.23    Matched

Dont trust Gosden - new rule

whats your minimum guaranteed profit to no liability? 1k?

Despite Gosden being bullish with Wings Of Desire for the Derby I'm less enthusiastic because I do have reservations about him negotiating the bends and undulations of Epsom given his limited race experience and track knowledge; I also am not particularly keen on the form of the Dante given the rough passage encountered by Foundation - the easy conqueror of Deauville in the Racing Post Trophy who'd the run of the race today - and the dismal show of Midterm.

Good luck to those with betting vouchers on Wings Of Desire but it is a big lay for me at the current price. I cannot see the price of Wings Of Desire contracting from current hence shall wait for the final declaration for confirmation of running plans for Minding and So Mi Dar before having a bet.

So Mi Dar,  wins the Derby if she runs! What a terrible name

Eric

This forum used to be unpolluted by the utter oafs and braggarts that usually infect the horse racing forum.

I was impressed by by the winner in the Dante today and it looked like the best trial so far.But a Derby winner sired by Pivotal ? I dont think so

Ramruna

If anything the temptation to run So Mi Dar in the Derby is greater after the performance of Midterm, In my opinion So Mi Dar has better credentials than Wings Of Desire, and according to Gosden Minding and So Mi Dar are head and shoulders above the colts. Also, So Mi Dar has a free entry into an easier to win Derby than the Oaks - Wings Of Desire needs to be supplemented - unless the connections of Minding blink 1st eg run her in the Irish 1000G or The Derby. This will go to the wire I think.

Can everyone stop talking about the fillies running in the Derby. It will not happen!

The really interesting thing for me is if Godolphin supp COS. On their website today it says they're still deciding. If they don't it's probably because JBolger believes he has the winner.

Godolphin to aim three at Derby- http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10279717/godolphin-boss-john-ferguson-says-linguistic-moonlight-magic-and-cloth-of-stars-could-run-in-the-investec-derby

As for his Investec Derby team, Ferguson offered upbeat reports on all three of his possible runners - two of whom (in common with Dante winner Wings of Desire) will require supplementing for £80,000. Who'd have thought Epsom's stated goal of reaching a £1.5million prize money pot for the race might come a year earlier than expected?

"After the Prix Greffuhle, Andre [Fabre] was obviously delighted with the performance of Cloth Of Stars, as was Mickael [Barzalona], and he felt the options were there for us - either over a mile and a half, or a mile and a quarter in the Prix du Jockey-Club at Chantilly," he said.

"Andre felt a mile and a half over a strong pace was what the horse deserved right now, and that the horse had matured sufficiently to mean that the idea of going for an Epsom Derby wouldn't daunt him, so he is a horse that has come through the ranks and deserves to be close to the front in the betting for the Derby.

"Moonlight Magic was obviously a very, very good two-year-old. He went to Leopardstown, the ground was very heavy that day, and he came back and his scope was a little dirty after that. He put up a real good performance on Sunday. The thing about him is that he is bred to get the trip, like Cloth of Stars, being by Cape Cross out of a Lammtarra mare. They both have pedigrees that give them really good chances of improving at a mile and a half and that's always a big asset in the Derby.

"John is keen to continue with the idea of going for the Derby with Linguistic. He was only beaten narrowly in the Dee. He felt he learned an awful lot that day and if John Gosden feels we have a horse good enough to go for the Derby, then who are we to disagree with him?

"We might have considered splitting them up but Epsom seems the right race for all of them and we've got Newmarket Stakes winner Hawkbill going for the Jockey-Club and we might have a horse called Floodlight too - he was second on Monday at Chantilly. Whether we go there or not isn't decided with him, but he does need to step up to a mile and a quarter."

Lysaghts article is incorrect. It's Foundation that goes to Chantilly.....this was an interview with Gosden, not O'Brien

So how to explain the lack-lustre run from Midterm?

Before doing so, its worth taking another look at Workforce's run in the Dante 2010 when he was outpaced by Cape Blanco, beaten 3.5L.He was 2/1 2nd fav for the race after just one run in the previous Sept.He was 2nd fav for Epsom and after the Dante went out to 10/1.Up to then no horse beaten at York had won the Derby. Workforce went off 6/1 at Epsom and won in a course record time. His RPR went from 114 at York to 129 at Epsom.Can history repeat itself?

Midterm went into yesterday's race a 2 time winner, trained by Stoute with a Derby winning pedigree and looking for all the world as a horse with considerable potential. Held up at the rear, alongside the eventual winner,he never looked happy trying to make up his ground and eventually faded somewhat (jockey eased him) finishing around 0.8 secs slower than WOD over the final 2f.

On that run its hard to see him winning the Derby. It has to be rated lower than his Sandown run unlike Workforce who improved his rating in the Dante.There's only just over 3 weeks to Epsom but at this time of year 3yr can and do make rapid progress sometimes. He might have just had an off-day, he might not have liked the faster ground but more likely it was the pace that caught him out. They race was run in an above average time and WOD must have a very good chance at Epsom although it has to be said that further improvement is required to win a good Derby.

I wouldn't write Midterm off until such time that the trainer has had a chance to assess the horse. The horse remains one with huge potential but perhaps its early days for him.In the meantime I will consider the bet lost but there is no point in laying anything back.

Such is racing.

If anything the temptation to run So Mi Dar in the Derby is greater after the performance of Midterm, In my opinion So Mi Dar has better credentials than Wings Of Desire, and according to Gosden Minding and So Mi Dar are head and shoulders above the colts. Also, So Mi Dar has a free entry into an easier to win Derby than the Oaks - Wings Of Desire needs to be supplemented - unless the connections of Minding blink 1st eg run her in the Irish 1000G or The Derby. This will go to the wire I think.

impossible, I just don't know how you can reach that conclusion.  Gosden is under no pressure from So Mi Dar's connections to run in the Derby.  Quite the opposite, they seem keen on the Oaks.  Then you also have the same trainer fielding the Derby fav for the Bamfords and encouraging Sheikh Mo to supp Linguistic....what set of circumstances then make Gosden think it's a good idea to run his Oaks filly in the race and potentially screw all three set of connections up?