I'd certainly agree that Minding won't be in the Derby, their colts might not have looked particularly special this year but they have shown enough to take their chance, it would just go against all commercial reality for them to enter Minding if it ended up costing them a huge breeding fee one of their horses which finishes 2nd to her.

It will knock several 'zeros' off their stallion fees with Minding winning or finishing infront of her male stablemates.

That raises the question, after hearing the quote by John Gosden, the trainer of So Mi Dar,....who said Minding is the best 3yo he's seen this year and she's head and shoulders above the colts, and So Mi Dar is the only filly who can give Minding a proper race.

With that raises another question, what is there to be gained by running against Minding in the Epsom Oaks if The Derby is there for the taking? The Derby could provide history - no filly winner for about 100yrs - £300k more in prize money, and a drubbing for the O'Brien's colts; So Mi Dar can easily do battle with Minding, if so, in the Irish Derby, The 'Arc', etc, later on.

As has been said by others, I don't expect to see Minding run in the Derby. If she won her value as a broodmare would be a fraction of a colt's worth as a stallion, probably not much more than a years stud fees as a Derby winner.The record of fillies in the colts classic is very poor so there is no guarantee that she would win it anyway and if she did and in so doing beat a Coolmre owned horse they would truly have shot themselves in the foot. So, unlikely then that Minding runs anywhere other than the Oaks but at the prices a small insurance bet on her to win the Derby is how I have played  it given that I have backed her to win the Oaks. On my figures, the Gosden horse has another 10lb to find to beat Minding so no saver there for me.

As for the  Derby, we could see Midterm shorten up for the Derby after winning the Dante, and i expect him to do so and to go on and win the Derby.My main reasons are that there only 2 horses who fit my profile for a  potential Derby winner (the other being USAR) and of the two I much prefer his form so far. Both have the potential for considerable improvement over their current ratings and on my figures Midterm is well in front of USAR.

Value is always in the eye of the beholder and whilst this would not count as a great value bet at current prices, if he wins well at York today Midterm could be as short as 6/4 or less for Epsom.

For me, Midterm has already run well enough to place in an average Derby, the question is can he improve enough to win one? Obviously lightly raced 3yos like him can improve significantly but in many cases I reckon improvement is more because of a horse not previously having the opportunity to show what it can do due to being involved in slowly run races. In my view Midterm's Classic Trial win didn't conceal anything about his ability, I believe that's as good as he was at the time so he'll need to improve through experience. On all known form he doesn't need to improve to win the Dante but it's still quite a competitive field with some unknown quantities with the potential to show better form than his so at the prices I'll just watch.

If the two exceptional fillies do not turn up then I'd think Midterm has a very good chance provided he wins as I believe Midterm is a better horse over 12f than the Dante's 10f; if Midterm cannot beat his field today then I'd think the chance of So Mi Dar running here could be significantly enhanced as I cannot see Minding challenging his highly "valued" stablemates.

My view is that





I believe Midterm is a better horse over 12f than the Dante's 10f;


I agree with that entirely. On his sectionals that looks to be the case as it does on breeding.


For me, Midterm has already run well enough to place in an average Derby,

I agree with that too. The factors which convince me that he can improve considerably are more to do with those other than the figures. Whilst he has not shown a great turn of foot so far,  both runs so far have been FTO and after a break. He is a lazy worker which suggests he only does enough and he looks stronger at the end of his races. His conformation looks to be a good bodied type which suggests plenty of lung room. I feel certain that all in all he will improve for  12f.

USAR looks to be a work-in-progress with AOB stating that he will be better at 4yrs. He is green in his races, the Derby may come too soon for him, but with AOB being fulsome we can expect considerable improvement eventually.

quite interested in foundation at the 8/1 here first time he has had his ground the worry is is he a sleeper in regards not improving but i don't think he needs to improve much to win and at last gets its ground, deuville is probably an improver on better ground and haggis's and gosdens other runner are potentially decent improvers should be an informative race

Well you can Forget Midterm for the Derby.  Looking at where deauville finished...AOB must be laughing

Derby going back to Ballydoyle

Wings of Desire 3-1 fav for the Derby>>>>???   is this some kind of joke?

Deauville's owner pre race said it wasn't fully fit for the Dante, the Derby being the one aimed at.  Pity it got tired last furlong.

won't win. can you imagine that epsom?  that would never in a million years handle the bends

breeding doesn't matter, golden horn's breeding was suspect last year pre derby but you knew it had the acceleration and class to win the derby.   Wings doesn't have the balance to handle Epsom just like Dubai Millenium...surprised this 3-1 fav...should be more like 12-1

'breeding doesn't matter' = tripe

Cannot see Pivotal as Derby sire even in a poor year.

before the dante, very few thought he would stay...even frankie.

i think wings will stay and improve. if it runs like it did today, it defo won't handle the bends  hence probably why gosden initially pulled him out of the derby.

yep, Sariska went radio rental as 4yo.

I am not doubting Wings of Desire will stay, given he has a King George runner-up and a Park Hill Stakes winner close-up in pedigree but Pivotal as a Derby sire to me is a non-event.

Regarding the comparison to ‘experts’ on Golden Horn’s chances of staying at Epsom, you only had to look at what type of class horses Cape Cross had  previously produced over a mile and a half- Sea The Stars, Behkabad, Ouija Board- to give you more than hope he could produce a Derby winner but Pivotal?

Going from a maiden to Wolverhampton to here and then 4/1 for the Derby is p issing at rainbows- his sire-line and inexperience will let him down. Not a kin chance even in a poor year if you ask me.

'Going from a maiden to Wolverhampton to here and then 4/1 for the Derby' has no bearing whether it will win or not on the Derby.  Lammtarra did it in 2, so it is possible.  However, I agree, this was a poor Dante from the start without Midterm and still is, and Wings ust will not have the balance to handle the undulations of epsom