Horse Antepost
Epsom DERBY 2016
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If connections are to be believed, then Cloth of Stars, Linguistic and Humphrye Bogart could all be supplemented. it's going to be a big field this year and there will be the usual bad luck in-running and draw bias.
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I was disappointed Idaho did not win yesterday, however he did not get the run of the race like the winner did and challenged wider off the bend. Basically, he would have covered more ground than the first two. But he still needs to improve.
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Every man and his dog seems to be having a crack at the derby this year, lot of chaff might take a chance on there not being a standout horse in the field. Hopefully Midterm runs a huge race in the dante and puts off a few of the on the fence runners as i would agree could certinly be a badluck story if we have a 15 or 20 runner derby.
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GREEDISGOOD 09 May 16 11:18 Joined: 31 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 1,945 | Blogger: GREEDISGOOD's blog Aiden 'Australia is best I ever had' O'Brien Rate reply: | report block user geoff m geoff m 09 May 16 08:34 Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 8,467 | Blogger: geoff m's blog I think he was taking the P!ss Charlton. apologies :) good call Greed i wonder why they blocked out the name of the horse that I put in brackets (y e a t s)? |
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Any news on "the gurkha" ? Big drift on betfair for this one. They thinking of going French Derby for this?
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The Gurkha=
O'Brien said: "The plan is to go to France with him next weekend for the French Guineas and we were thinking of going back with the filly that was third at Newmarket, Alice Springs, for the fillies' Guineas. "He was third in a good maiden here first time, then he went to Navan and won very easy. He's a Galileo obviously but he's plenty of pace. We'd imagine he'd definitely stay a mile-and-a-quarter but you're never sure. "He travels very strongly so he obviously has plenty of pace." If all goes well for The Gurkha next weekend he could step up in trip for another Classic for his next start, in either the Prix du Jockey Club over 10 furlongs or the Investec Derby. "He could do a lot of things [after the French Guineas], he could go back to France for the French Derby or he could go to Epsom, but we'll see what happens in France [next weekend]. "If you're stepping up to a mile-and-a-quarter you think French Derby and a mile-and-a-half you go to Epsom." |
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thanks MADHU - Obrien being as clear as Mud by entering him everywhere with the usual all options open.
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good thread, particularly enjoyed kincsem's pedigree analysis - thanks for that.
A few random thoughts: The most telling comment I read in the wake of US Army Ranger's Chester win was JO'Bs assertion that he might make up into a better 4yo - Ruler of the World was the only winner since 1993 to win without racing as a juvenile and I don't think the 2013 renewal was a vintage one once Dawn Approach bombed out.This year's race may not be that hot either but I think it's far too early to assess that. Incidentally ROTW could still be backed at 14/1 after winning the Chester Vase by 6 lengths (though doubtless that was due to DA being a hot favourite as an unbeaten Guineas winner. Personally I don't see any value in US Army Ranger's current price. Secondly, I would n't be that surprised if Midterm got turned over by Foundation at York but reversed the form in the Derby itself - on pedigree Foundation looks a doubtful stayer in the Derby whereas Midterm is surely all about stamina - can even see a scenario where the media start considering Midterm as more of a St Leger horse after Thursday. On the other hand, the long straight at York might play to Midterm's strengths. Finally Sintonian's point about luck in running in a likely big field is valid - tactical speed will probably be important too - I liked the burst of speed Moonlight Magic showed to get to the front yesterday plus his super shrewd trainer was confident he could be effective from 8f to 12f, I think he's got a big chance - his sire would n't put you off either. |
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If Midterm wins the Dante by 6 lengths will they suddenly go quiet about supplementing Stars Touching Cloth and Linguistic?
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ReaselHeath- the most telling comment for me was Jim Bolger on Moonlight Magic- 'He won the race in a similar style to the way St Jovite did all those years ago...'. He may be much better suited to course than the later given his comments after Kevin Manning hinted Moonlight Magic might be more the type for the Curragh. I'm on board.
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Foundation had a tall reputation and was once the 'fav' for The Derby but the Craven put paid to that, and now a forgotten horse; there's also a doubt in his ability to stay the Derby distance too, however, The Dante, could be his optimum distance I believe.
I also believe Midterm is more effective over 10f+; Midterm travels very well in his races and can quicken at the end of them. He's also most likely to go for The 'ARC' if he wins The Derby, and The Leger if he does not but not both given the proximity of the two races I'd imagine. Port Douglas (PD) is virtually friendless in the market (23/1) despite his sterling effort trying to give 4lbs to his stablemate (UAR) who is currently trading at 5/1. If the former turns up at Epsom his odds will be significantly shorter no doubt. |
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Supplementing horses
The billionaire owners can easily pay £75,000 to put their horse in the race. What about the owner whose horse is eliminated from the Derby because of these supplemented horses? I'm guessing only the highest rated horses that are entered and pay all the calls get in the race. If a horse was in the race but gets ejected because someone paid £75k do they get compensated? If not they should, perhaps £25k. They probably get £0, do not get a run despite running well in trials, and lose all the money they paid at the various declaration stages. Does anyone know the story? |
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Apart from the odd sales race you get all your stake money back after being balloted or eliminated from a race in GB and the order of elimination will be done on O/Rs or Handicapper's assessment whether you came in as a yearling or at the 5 day stage.
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This thread provides a glimpse of some of the analysis and rational discussion that used to exist on the forum a decade ago.
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Thanks Headmaster
Do you get all back, or just the last declaration stage? (I see you said all but I'm wondering is it just the last people balloted out that get all back .. sorry for the nitpicking). |
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If you declare for a race and are eliminated or balloted out you will get every bit of stake money back that you have paid to be in the race, k. No matter how much it is or how many stages that may be. The lot.
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By the way, the host racecourse doesn't trouser the entire supplementary fee. It only takes the amount it would have charged connections to run if they'd be in from the start. The remainder goes in to the overall prize fund as a way of compensating the other contenders.
So this year's Derby looks like being the richest ever run if all these supps happen. |
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I would be very surprised based on his pedigree if Moonlight Magic stays 12f
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the 2000 guineas winner is being backed on ere ave they changed their mind just backed at 21
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Horse will be left in at next scratching stage. Runs in Irish 2000 first, owner didn't want to scratch tis all.
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Owner's rep says Galileo Gold will be left in the Derby at the next entry stage. Final decision after the Irish Guineas:
http://gu.com/p/4j332/stw |
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Might give everyone a chamce to lay off their stake
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Minding is drifting in Derby market and shortened into 2.2 in Oaks market. Any news
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plenty money now r they guessing or is it more likely to run
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What did I tell you . Never believe anything trainers or owners say about horses. The galileo gold fiasco is just proof of that. Next minute you know, Stoute will say Midterm is better than Shergar. lol
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So galileo gold is 7-2 without a run for the Derby. You must absolutely insane to back that considering what the trainer said a week ago. so you would probably need at least 33-1
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now may be a good time to lay off on galileo gold. these owners and trainers cannot be trusted,
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interesting buick takes over on foundation in dante with dettori riding wings of joy for the bamfords...have i missed something or has he been jocked off? i can't have it he thinks the minor maiden winner is better
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Looks like Investec won;t have to pay a penny to Derby Winner this year.....all the supplements' will cover it
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I don't know a single person who has backed Galileo Gold for the Derby. Anyone?
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Soft ground at York?
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http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=york
seems ok sint |
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sintonian
I think Tom Segal backed it (not just tipped it). He was very hot under the collar and berated the owners for being unsporting or something. If I was the owner I would withdraw it on the morning of the race "stone bruise", "coughed sometime in the distant past", "didn't eat his dinner" i.e. the type of excuses you hear in Irish racing.  |
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sintonian he certainly went out his way to tell the owners think he must of had a few quid on after the 2000
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sorry meant Midterm
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Tom Segal will be saying how s h1te Midterm and US Army ranger will be just because Galileo's gold decision.
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Segal bullying owners and trainers publicly into running whatever next?
You are taking a price for the Irish 2000 Guineas / Epsom Derby double backing him now. If he doesnt win the Irish 2000 doubt he will be aimed at the Derby and even if he does win the Guineas we could see him staying at a mile rather than being asked to step up half a mile. |