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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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Replies: 1,256
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I agree there is no standout candidate in The Derby this year until possibly post The Dante (I hope); Midterm did not beat much at Sandown however the front two did pull 8l clear from the others, and the ground was soft too - all in all a good effort for a horse on only his 2nd run; UAR did similarly well except he was a "talking" horse, receiving 4lbs and could have been outstayed by Port Douglas, the runner-up and stable companion if the jockey of the latter had been more "professional" - the rest in The Derby betting are either 2nd/3rd strings from the O'Brien's stable, possible non-runners, also-rans in the 2000G with suspect staying credentials, etc.
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Tirmizi is running in the Derrinstown at Leopardstown today 15:35.
He ran once in his life, is 3.8 second favourite today, and is 23s for the Epsom Derby. He might be the greatest even, but is this Derby fever taking hold? |
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kincem
Do you adjust your assessments of distance performance by age? 2 year old trips for example would indicate that starting at 5f or perhaps 6f early in year might suggest CC type. 7/8f might suggest CT. 9/10f late season might suggest TT. Yout thoughts? |
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looking at the aob third and fourth strings today and yesterday, i would say he is in a very strong position for all group 1 races this season.
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Tirmizi is the interesting horse in the Ballysax. His price suggests a huge amount of improvement is expected. The ground is good for me. Idaho has a pronouced round action suggesting he might be best on soft whilst Shogun should prefer this ground. The jockey bookings suggest that Shogun is preferred . There might not be much between them. I like the Weld horse to step up and take this.He may be more of an Irish Derby horse though rather than one for Epsom given his size.
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Can see Idaho and Shogun as pacemakers in the Derby.
 interesting to see how they fare today |
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big drift on this weld horse sandown colty?
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Drifting like a BOAT
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Well BEATEN
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No Derby winner in the Derrinstown looked moderate winner only held on.
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AOB third strings a close second and third. interesting
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that plays compliment to Harzand. Even though I backed Harzand , Not sure if it is going to the derby though.
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Trainer rates that hoss as a Ledger horse
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yes.. it is going straight to the Irish Derby and leger. It cannot handle firm ground too. Damn you Harzand
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AOB better not pull out Port douglas too.
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Still points to US Army Ranger as their no 1 with normal improvement and less bends off a strong pace.
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Cloth Of Stars most impressive of any trial winners since Sandown in my humble. They should supp.
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Moonlight Magic 4th fav for the derby....hmmmmmm...... those AOB third strings behind it will surely improve a vast deal from those runs...
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I would not be too keen to write off the winner today.
By Capre Cross out of a staying mare. Where have we seen that before? He looks certain to improve considerably for the extra distance and was "at it" plenty early enough today - the intention was clearly to make it a proper test of stamina. It did'n't look very flashy but I expect significant improvement and a bold show at Epsom. Sir James will have him spot on for the big day. Of that you can be dead certain. |
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I like him too Cry. He won a little cosily in the end in my opinion
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He won a bit like Sharastani did when he won the Dante.
Obviously you can see that the O'Brien pair would be fancied by some to reverse but that looks too easy even a lazy analysis. Moonlight looks a big strong brute with serious scope. Sir James was really clear that he is a Derby horse. After Chester it would be hard to imagine that the Army General thing is that much cop. I love Midterm because of his breeding but he has quite a bit to find. |
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Jim Bolger-
"The other Derby contenders have been an even bunch this year," he said. "We can go there now anyway and I don't fear anything else in the race. "He's a very good horse and temperamentally good. He won the race in a similar style to the way St Jovite did all those years ago, though of course he was beaten at Epsom. "I think he is very versatile - he could run over 1m to 1m4f. I think he just didn't quite fire here on his first run back and he was quiet afterwards." |
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Charlton2005
I am a retired accountant. You should direct your questions to Equinome. Their website says "The Equinome Speed Gene Test analyses a specific position within the myostatin (MSTN) gene, where the code contains either the DNA variant C or T. Each individual has two copies of the gene – one inherited from the dam and one from the sire, so there are three possible genetic combinations: C:C, C:T or T:T." Nothing about dominant / recessive. "Each individual has two copies of the gene" My "work" is guesswork. I have no results from Equinome. I guess the type based on the best distance of the horse (if the horse ran). tbh this seems far too simplistic to build a predictive model. the genetics of eye colour are far more complicated than the above idea, though it seems eye colour would have a far simpler method of transmission. I am no geneticist but I would take those tests and theories with a very large pinch of salt. |
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Sandown
I spend my time gathering pedigrees, and trying out ideas. e.g. examine all the runners of a sire to see what is in the pedigrees of his best. (367,000 horse database) The C.C, C.T, T.T is only one of several things I try (perhaps under 0.5% of my pedigree time). I don't bet often, so am not bothered with most horses. For example, this week I am completing the pedigrees of thousands of horses by sires like Emarati, Kingsalsa, Mazaad, Redoute's Choice, Faustus, Nashamaa, O'Reilly, Public Purse and a few hundred more sires. I'm doing this all day, and have been doing it for months. 23 years gathering pedigrees and analysing them, about 700 pedigree books / stud books. Bought a £1500 set last week, awaiting delivery tomorrow morning. My aim is to have a set of small computer programs that will analyse pedigrees in minutes, any number of horses at a time (e.g. a sales catalogue, all the runners in a year, all dams at stud). The C.C, C.T, T.T type is useful in a few situations, 1) where the horse has not run, or once or twice. Know the parents type, and you can guess the foal type. 2) where the race distance that is on the border between types e.g. 10f (C.C no good), 14f+ (C.T no good?) so you know which might fail. It can be a useful tool to reduce the field by a few runners. It does nothing to tell you the quality of a runner (same as Dosage Index). I would not use it for 2yo racing, but if trying to figure out a 3yo his/her 2yo race distance/performance might give a hint if other info is missing. People often say some 2yos didn't train on. Imo what happens is they run at 5f, 6f, 7f as 2yo and then they are moved on to 10f and 12f and fail. They didn't train on? Perhaps they were C.C and moved up to a distance beyond their type. Have you even seen a horse start at long distance and move down in distance? The racing programme is designed for horses to start at 5f, then months later at 6f, then 7f and up and up. Owners and trainers always want to move a horse up to Derby distance, and if you know they are C.C you win. I will have a type for every sire in my database with current runners. Dams can be assessed when needed. In my pedigree database: geldings 50,049; males 80,743; females 235,641. There are only 27,276 sires of the 367,000 horses from ~ 1700 and many of those sired only one or two (or only one or two were useful and were used for breeding). 5,696 have sired 10 or more (from ~1700 to now), only 1,725 sires (worldwide) born from 1980 have 10 or more offspring (in my database). |
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charlton2005
I'm guessing you think I use the Equinome type to predict winners. I do not. I use it to predict which horses can not win. I use it to reduce the field if I can. Often all the horses are the type suited to the race and none can be eliminated. I do not use it to "build a predictive model". The obvious example of a horse that could have been eliminated was Dawn Approach, the 5/4 favourite in the 2013 Epsom Derby. He finished 12th of 12. Knowing he was a C.C didn't help me predict Ruler Of The World, but I got 16s and predicted him as the winner, and Dawn Approach as a place lay before the race. Check the old antepost thread. People knew Dawn Approach was a C.C type but you heard the same old phrases: "classy"; "switch of"; "relaxed running style". I try to help but people won't listen. I didn't make the C.C, C.T, T.T discovery. If they want a more complicated theory that is what they want. Jim Bolger knew Dawn Approach would not stay. He sold him to a billionaire. You don't tell a billionaire he made is wrong. "Bolger believes that his colt's relaxed nature will help him defy his genetic inclination, allowing jockey Kevin Manning to switch him off and ease him round the horseshoe without expending too much energy." http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/news/bloodstock/dawn-approach-j-s-bolger-world-class-why-jim-bolger-will-be-in-two-minds-watching-saturdays-derby/1279873/ |
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Very disappointed with Idaho today, off the bridle before the straight and just plugged on.
 The winner is worth his place, and Shogun ran OK too but it's hard to see any of them being good enough to win a Derby - even if this is a very weak year. |
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Happy with Shogun today over a trip on the sharp side for him. Be surprised if he does not turn up at Epsom and will be able to trade shorter closer to the time if appropriate.
An uninspiring bunch in my opinion with just the Dante and the Irish and French Guineas to go. Will back Midterm for the Derby before the Dante and then see who if any horses from the two remaining Guineas may have Derby potential. Probably unlikely. That will that for me this year which is sad as I like to have a "tilt" at the Derby but have never liked guessing. |
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Only thing certain about this years Derby is that it will be a massive field. I can see 20 odd runners given how everything with half a chance will have a crack. It's going to be a lottery.
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20 is the max field allowed
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interesting views from sir tom wouldnt back ranger at 25/1
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In my 15 years betting on horses...I've heard it all. 'Right Approach is he best horse I ever sat on' , Kieron Fallon (which was a flop), 'Vautour will defo run in the Gold Cup or it stays at home ', Rich Ricci. 'Jack Hobbs looks like the superstar of the Gosden yard' (before being trounced by Golden Horn)...etc.etc.... However I have yet to hear an over exaggerated claim from the O'Brien camp....
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we wont really know more til after the Dante,even though Idaho didnt win,Seamie didnt appear to be too hard on him in the last couple of furlongs whereas Moore was definitly more vigourous on Shogun,maybe Idaho has a bit of improvement in him yet...
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Dante is also poor. I'd expect Midterm to trounce em
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yeah should win although if there is a very strong gallop set by the o'Brien horses it could give Midterm a tougher race than ideal ahead of the Derby...
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it will by a mile . there is nothing in that race which has progressed since last year.
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I'd prefer Midterm over The Derby distance but do not overlook Foundation over 10.5f - this could be his optimum distance, if so, utmost respect given he started odds-on in The Racing Post Trophy with Port Douglas at 20/1, a horse that seemed to have improved over a longer distance.
Idaho never travels well in any of his races so far maybe The Leger trip could bring the best out of him too. How ironic, no a top Derby horse for Coolmore but several Leger ones eg UAR, Idaho and Shogun to name three. |
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not sure Idaho would get 1m6,maybe 1m4 although maybe wait and see where he turns up next...
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However I have yet to hear an over exaggerated claim from the O'Brien camp....
"he's got so much speed rishi, we could have in the july cup" (on ****) |
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I think he was taking the P!ss Charlton.
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Aiden 'Australia is best I ever had' O'Brien
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