Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1256 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,256
|
By:
year name sex type
1900 DIAMOND JUBILEE M 1901 VOLODYOVSKI M 1902 ARD PATRICK M 1903 ROCK SAND M C.T 1904 ST AMANT M 1905 CICERO M 1906 SPEARMINT M C.T 1907 ORBY M 1908 SIGNORINETTA F 1909 MINORU M 1910 LEMBERG M C.T 1911 SUNSTAR M C.T 1912 TAGALIE F 1913 ABOYEUR M 1914 DURBAR M 1915 POMMERN M C.T 1916 FIFINELLA F C.C 1917 GAY CRUSADER M T.T 1918 GAINSBOROUGH M C.T 1919 GRAND PARADE M C.C 1920 SPION KOP M C.T 1921 HUMORIST M 1922 CAPTAIN CUTTLE M 1923 PAPYRUS M C.T 1924 SANSOVINO M C.C 1925 MANNA M C.T 1926 CORONACH M 1927 CALL BOY M C.T 1928 FELSTEAD M 1929 TRIGO M C.T 1930 BLENHEIM M C.T 1931 CAMERONIAN M 1932 APRIL THE FIFTH M 1933 HYPERION M C.T 1934 WINDSOR LAD M 1935 BAHRAM M C.T 1936 MAHMOUD M C.T 1937 MID-DAY SUN M 1938 BOIS ROUSSEL M T.T 1939 BLUE PETER M C.T 1940 PONT L'EVEQUE M 1941 OWEN TUDOR M 1942 WATLING STREET M 1943 STRAIGHT DEAL M 1944 OCEAN SWELL M 1945 DANTE M C.T 1946 AIRBORNE M ?.T 1947 PEARL DIVER M 1948 MY LOVE M 1949 NIMBUS M C.C 1950 GALCADOR M 1951 ARCTIC PRINCE M T.T 1952 TULYAR M 1953 PINZA M C.T 1954 NEVER SAY DIE M T.T 1955 PHIL DRAKE M 1956 LAVANDIN M 1957 CREPELLO M C.T 1958 HARD RIDDEN M C.T 1959 PARTHIA M C.T 1960 ST PADDY M T.T 1961 PSIDIUM M C.T 1962 LARKSPUR M T.T 1963 RELKO M T.T 1964 SANTA CLAUS M C.T 1965 SEA-BIRD M C.T 1966 CHARLOTTOWN M C.T 1967 ROYAL PALACE M T.T 1968 SIR IVOR M C.T 1969 BLAKENEY M T.T 1970 NIJINSKY M C.T 1971 MILL REEF M C.T 1972 ROBERTO M C.T 1973 MORSTON M T.T 1974 SNOW KNIGHT M C.T 1975 GRUNDY M C.T 1976 EMPERY M C.T 1977 THE MINSTREL M C.T 1978 SHIRLEY HEIGHTS M T.T 1979 TROY M C.T 1980 HENBIT M C.T 1981 SHERGAR M C.T 1982 GOLDEN FLEECE M C.T 1983 TEENOSO M T.T 1984 SECRETO M C.T 1985 SLIP ANCHOR M T.T 1986 SHAHRASTANI M T.T 1987 REFERENCE POINT M T.T 1988 KAHYASI M C.T 1989 NASHWAN M C.T 1990 QUEST FOR FAME M C.T 1991 GENEROUS M C.T 1992 DR DEVIOUS M C.T 1993 COMMANDER IN CHIEF M T.T 1994 ERHAAB M C.T 1995 LAMMTARRA M T.T 1996 SHAAMIT M C.T? 1997 BENNY THE DIP M C.T 1998 HIGH-RISE M 1999 OATH M C.T 2000 SINNDAR M T.T 2001 GALILEO M T.T 2002 HIGH CHAPARRAL M C.T 2003 KRIS KIN M C.T 2004 NORTH LIGHT M C.T 2005 MOTIVATOR M C.T 2006 SIR PERCY M C.T 2007 AUTHORIZED M T.T 2008 NEW APPROACH M C.T 2009 SEA THE STARS M C.T 2010 WORKFORCE M C.T 2011 POUR MOI M C.T? 2012 CAMELOT M C.T 2013 RULER OF THE WORLD M C.T 2014 AUSTRALIA M T.T? 2015 GOLDEN HORN M C.T Time taken to update all the winners of all group races from 1900 to 2015 with Type was 2.76 seconds |
|
By:
Those types are my opinion, and I sometimes change my opinion.
|
|
By:
yep pretty quick time kincsem
 |
|
By:
I see a few of the earlier winners are C.C - Nimbus, Grand Parade, Sansovino.
These are probably errors, and errors that I do not really need to correct as those horses will not be close up in modern pedigrees. I have a full set of form books from around 1900 so I could go back and look at those horses and their sires and dams and fix those. At present I am trying to fill in gaps in the pedigrees of 40,000 horses so that fix above is not a priority. My idea is to write a book about pedigree, a book that would be of use to breeders. I have roughed out about 30,000 words, and put down ideas that need to be tested with data. Most pedigree analysis books are long on description and short on numbers. I sent an e-mail a major organisation 12 days ago asking for permission to use their data. No response so far. |
|
By:
new sire paco boy hasn't bred many with dams who are by a strong staying influence, looking at horses he has bred through dam sires that are a proven influence, they aren't to bad... i can only find a couple so far with peacock who looked like he would stay further and pacify a handicapper by sadlers wells both proven at up to 1m2f
|
|
By:
All that and I still back losers.
 |
|
By:
thanks for that.
so most recent winners are CTs another question- are there any horses that did badly in their derby, that seemingly failed to stay, that are C Cs? Like entrepreneur for example, or cape verdi. Dubai millenuim? |
|
By:
My guess at Galileo Gold type before the 2000 Guineas
His sire Paco Boy was a C.C. All Paco Boy’s runs were at 6f, 7f, 8f, 9f so he never tried middle distances. His one run at 9f was 8th of 16. His sire Desert Style was a C.T and his dam Tappen Zee was a C.T (my guesses) He must have inherited a C from each, a 25% chance. Going down to Galileo Gold’s dam side His fourth dam Floripedes was a T.T (stayer). His third dam Cuixmala did not race so I have her as a ?.T (sire Highest Honor C.T; Floripedes T.T) His second dam Clizia did not race. I have her as C.T? (sire Machiavellian C.T; dam Cuixmala ?.T) His dam Calicuix raced twice only, both at 10f as a 3yo,and was last each time 12th of 12 and 10th of 10. There is very little info to judge the first, second, third dams of Galileo Gold. This comment in the first race of Calicuix, his first dam “Prominent early, lost place soon after halfway, weakened over 2f out, tailed off “ suggests she had some speed. As I have her sire Galileo as a T.T she was probable a C.T (T from Galileo, C from her dam). Her trainer did not start her at 5f, 6f so he probably thought she was a middle distance sort (but she was a poor runner). That leaves Galileo Gold with a C.C sire and a C.T dam. He could be a C.C or a C.T – a 50% chance of each. Galileo Gold’s first two races were at 6f so I guess he showed some speed to his trainer. Derby types (C.T types) often start in 7f races. That swayed me to thinking Galileo Gold was a C.C before the 2000 Guineas. You can see there is a lot of guesswork with a horse descended from all those unraced dams. I'll answer the question about C.C that failed to stay in the Derby in a minute. |
|
By:
Backed Shogun at 44 on here before Sunday`s trial. Maybe bigger after the race but nothing ventured nothing gained.
|
|
By:
1992
Alnasr Alwasheek and Rodrigo De Triano – look at their record at up to 10f, and their record beyond. 10f is often a barrier for a C.C type. Rodrigo may have been a C.T. I think 1992 was a bit of a watershed in the Derby. The Dosage Index suggested that you needed some stamina in a pedigree and since then few sprint types have taken part. Trainers said it was a daft theory but they kept their sprinters at home. 1993 Barathea was probably a C.C. I haven’t checked out his dam Brocade’s racing record, but her sire Habitat was a C.C , and her damsire Runnymede was a C.C I should point out that if I am analysing the Derby field I would go through each horse in detail (the dam side). Tenby, the odds on favourite, was a small horse. He had a string of wins, but in small fields against the same horses. He wasn’t a C.C. He was just overhyped. 1998 Cape Verdi 11/4 fav was 9th of 15. Her sire and dam were both I think C.T, but I think she was a C.C. All her form was at 6f, 7f, 8f and she has since produced five C.C foals and two C.T. If she had a T she would have produced a T.T or more C.T imo. (hindsight) King Of Kings 11/2 was a C.C and finished 15th of 15 (reported lame – yeah). A sore race for me as a £50 double Shahtoush 20/1, City Honours 11/1 failed by a head, and I was there. 2003 Refuse To Bend by Sadler’s Wells C.T out of Market Slide C.C. 11/4 fav was 13th of 20. He was probably a C.C. 2004 Snow Ridge was favourite and finished 7th. His sire Indian Ridge was a C.C. 2013 Dawn Approach was a C.C, was 5/4 favourite, and finished 12th of 12. His trained said before the race he was a C.C. I place laid him. Comments I didn’t keep lists of C.C horses in the Derby. The above are just a few that came to mind. You should also be careful of T.T horses in the Derby. I tend to be negative about T.T types in the Derby. You might read afterwards that they “didn’t stay”. What happens is they often lack the pace to take part in the finish. They do stay (slowly). If the ground is slow their chances increase. To be sure of classifications I would need to analyse the racing records of past Derby fields, and of their sires and dams (and backwards and forwards i.e. their parents racing records and the racing records of their (the Derby runner's) offspring) |
|
By:
I was at the 1998 derby too kincsem. maybe we bumped into each other?
how would you assess the derby/oaks trials at lingfield tomorrow? would you be able to throw out certain horses based on their breeding? in any case tremendous stuff. |
|
By:
Did you see someone on suicide watch?
|
|
By:
lol no but I recall not seeing any of the finish and thinking I would never have backed this high-rise horse in a million years anyway.
looking at the oaks trial tomorrow this chinoiseries looks overpriced- hasn't got much to find on ratings anyway and on pedigree and running style looks sure to get the trip. this architecture by contrast who is much shorter in the betting looks a potential non-stayer. Will be interesting to see how chinoiseries gets on in a match against architecture. I like this method of using pedigrees to discount runners. Is there anyway you can look up the dosage of horses online to check whether they are cc's, ct's etc? It would certainly help the average punter who needs all the help they can get to get the better of the bookies. |
|
By:
What would we do without our chief statistician kincsem? Thanks mate.
 |
|
By:
lewisham ranger
Is there anyway you can look up the dosage of horses online to check whether they are cc's, ct's etc? You can look up dosage index figures at pedigreequery.com You can not look up Equinome categories C.C, C.T, T.T. You have to make them up yourself, and of course they will be guesswork. If anyone wants to try to do their own guesses here is a list of recent sires with my guesses of their type (number of progeny in my database in square brackets). You need the pedigree of a runner to get the dam side (pedigree.com is good) sire (dob) [prog] type A P Indy (1974) [261] C.T Acatenango (1974) [219] T.T Acclamation (1993) [402] C.C Alhaarth (1985) [410] C.T Alzao (1969) [633] C.T Anabaa (1977) [535] C.T Aragon (1968) [232] C.C Bahamian Bounty (1985) [422] C.C Barathea (1981) [684] C.T Bering (1973) [375] C.T Bertolini (1977) [389] C.C Big Shuffle (1975) [278] C.C Bluebird (1978) [452] C.C Brief Truce (1976) [218] C.T Cadeaux Genereux (1976) [658] C.C Caerleon (1967) [556] C.T Cape Cross (1983) [799] C.T Captain Rio (1993) [267] C.C Celtic Swing (1982) [220] C.T Choisir (1993) [303] C.C College Chapel (1977) [214] C.C Common Grounds (1976) [310] C.T Compton Place (1985) [392] C.C Cyrano De Bergerac (1964) [208] C.C Dalakhani (1981) [362] T.T Danehill (1977) [1006] C.T Danehill Dancer (1986) [930] C.C Danetime (1986) [253] C.C Dansili (1986) [681] C.T Darshaan (1975) [538] C.T Dashing Blade (1981) [242] C.C Daylami (1985) [310] C.T Desert Prince (1983) [347] C.T Desert Style (1983) [324] C.T Diesis (1969) [538] C.T Diktat (1985) [371] C.C Distinctly North (1979) [203] C.C Dixieland Band (1961) [259] C.T Dr Fong (1977) [386] C.T Dubai Destination (1990) [312] C.T Dubawi (1996) [377] C.T Dynaformer (1969) [381] T.T Efisio (1975) [410] C.C Elusive City (1993) [280] C.C Elusive Quality (1984) [325] C.C Encosta De Lago (1982) [200] C.T Exceed And Excel (1986) [402] C.C Fairy King (1961) [430] C.C Fantastic Light (1985) [283] T.T Fasliyev (1977) [427] C.C Fayruz (1966) [271] C.C Footstepsinthesand (1997) [297] C.C Forzando (1975) [207] C.C Galileo (1981) [1019] T.T Generous (1980) [252] C.T Giant'S Causeway (1983) [522] C.T Gone West (1970) [401] C.C Grand Lodge (1982) [592] C.T Green Desert (1977) [855] C.C Green Tune (1972) [265] C.T Groom Dancer (1974) [315] C.T Gulch (1970) [263] C.T Halling (1980) [452] C.T Hawk Wing (1983) [284] C.T Hernando (1976) [359] T.T High Chaparral (1981) [407] C.T Highest Honor (1975) [338] C.T Holy Roman Emperor (1986) [270] C.C Iffraaj (1990) [211] C.C In The Wings (1981) [414] C.T Inchinor (1975) [299] C.C Indian Ridge (1975) [652] C.C Intikhab (1987) [268] C.T Invincible Spirit (1983) [616] C.C Johannesburg (1993) [219] C.C Kahyasi (1975) [295] C.T Kendor (1975) [238] C.T Key Of Luck (1982) [238] C.T Kheleyf (1983) [261] C.C King'S Best (1990) [531] C.T Kingmambo (1970) [415] C.T Kyllachy (1993) [393] C.C Lahib (1969) [200] C.T Lando (1982) [208] T.T Last Tycoon (1975) [378] C.T Law Society (1974) [237] C.T Lear Fan (1969) [256] C.T Linamix (1981) [441] C.T Lomitas (1976) [254] C.T Machiavellian (1970) [502] C.T Marju (1983) [536] C.T Mark Of Esteem (1981) [404] C.T Medicean (1987) [454] C.T Monsun (1976) [357] T.T Montjeu (1981) [711] T.T Most Welcome (1974) [206] C.T Mr Greeley (1984) [235] C.T Mtoto (1963) [331] C.T Mujadil (1978) [382] C.C Namid (1985) [292] C.C Nashwan (1974) [374] C.T Nayef (1984) [316] C.T Night Shift (1961) [752] C.T Noverre (1985) [222] C.T Oasis Dream (1983) [573] C.C One Cool Cat (1983) [203] C.C Oratorio (1986) [300] C.T Orpen (1989) [427] C.C Peintre Celebre (1977) [436] C.T Perugino (1977) [243] C.C Petong (1969) [303] C.C Petorius (1968) [217] C.C Piccolo (1985) [404] C.C Pivotal (1987) [817] C.C Polar Falcon (1977) [271] C.T Polish Precedent (1977) [432] C.T Primo Dominie (1972) [351] C.C Prince Sabo (1976) [234] C.C Pursuit Of Love (1984) [270] C.T Rahy (1974) [346] C.T Rainbow Quest (1974) [710] T.T Red Ransom (1969) [558] C.T Refuse To Bend (1981) [271] C.T Risk Me (1977) [210] C.C Rock Of Gibraltar (1986) [559] C.T Royal Academy (1967) [594] C.T Royal Applause (1983) [664] C.C Sadler'S Wells (1961) [1569] C.T Sakhee (1992) [200] C.T Salse (1974) [238] C.T Seeking The Gold (1970) [295] C.T Selkirk (1969) [675] C.T Shamardal (1997) [420] C.T Shareef Dancer (1961) [282] C.T Singspiel (1986) [595] C.T Sinndar (1991) [268] T.T Slip Anchor (1975) [280] T.T Smart Strike (1970) [235] C.T Soviet Star (1977) [371] C.T Spectrum (1981) [398] C.T Spinning World (1977) [204] C.T Sri Pekan (1987) [226] C.T Storm Cat (1978) [494] C.C Stravinsky (1977) [218] C.C Street Cry (1987) [290] C.T Sunday Silence (1969) [304] C.T Tagula (1977) [311] C.C Teofilo (1998) [261] C.T Theatrical (1977) [310] T.T Tiger Hill (1986) [324] C.T Titus Livius (1987) [212] C.C Tobougg (1990) [273] C.T Trempolino (1969) [286] C.T Unfuwain (1961) [336] C.T Verglas (1983) [428] C.C Vettori (1987) [297] C.T Warning (1977) [269] C.C Woodman (1970) [482] C.T Xaar (1990) [268] C.T Zabeel (1971) [251] C.T Zafonic (1984) [393] C.C Zamindar (1984) [306] C.C Zilzal (1977) [207] C.T |
|
By:
kincem
Your data contribution should not go unacclaimed. This forum is at its best when people like you contribute something that is genuinely helpful to others based on work which might give you an edge. Yet you have been truly unselfish in sharing it. There are caveats to be made but you have stressed those and it is up to others to take those into account. Such a refreshing change from the petty bickering that often goes on and the competitive one-upmanship. I've been on this forum for 15 years and your contribution is one of the best I've seen. Very well done. Apologies if any of this makes you blush. Be Lucky. And I mean it. You deserve to be. I hope that you can get some backing for publishing your work on pedigrees. |
|
By:
lewisham ranger
how would you assess the derby/oaks trials at lingfield tomorrow? Oaks Trial - 5 runners Place laid: Architecture at 1.70 Win bet: Seventh Heaven at 4.20 |
|
By:
kincsem. This is good stuff.
It may be your estimate on what these sire pass on, but its an extensive list and adds a string to the bow when assessing 2 and 3yo's Given Galileo Gold being the hot topic at the moment, these results to me show that the genetics of the breeding lines taproot mare (Maid of the Glen) infer sprint to mile, as seemingly shown by the test on Galileo Gold. But every now and again along will come one of those Chef-de-race sires as in Sadlers Wells who'll impart his credentials on future lineage i.e Montjeu So reading between the lines here Paco Boy is highly unlikely to end up one of those Chef-de-Race sires...and dare I say it, in time it may be proven that Galileo will not have the same generation to generation influence as Sadlers Wells. Dawn Approach being a case example |
|
By:
Thanks for the comments.
Much of what I look at turns to dust, but I like to check things. I have loads of ideas examined and more to test when I have the data in good shape. What works for large populations can't become a rule for one bet. My mother used to say to us as kids "You're laughing now, you'll be crying in a minute". |
|
By:
Only 4mm of rain at Leopardstown overnight, and hopefully the track will avoid any heavy showers to racing tomorrow. The going remains good, and may get a bit faster.
Shogun is 50/1 for the Derby, yet tissue 2/1 for the Derrinstown tomorrow. This horse needs proper good ground and middle distances. The horse has yet to race beyond a mile, and the only time it really got decent ground was in the Lagardere at Longchamp. Worth watching that race, as it kept pace with Galileo Gold when the finishing kick happened. This is an over priced horse based on its softer ground runs. Clearly held in high regard at Ballydoyle; the horse ran in the key 2yo maiden race for AOB last year. |
|
By:
5/1 about Shogun for tomorrow available, Lufc.
|
|
By:
kincsem
If a horse had a dosage of 1.0, CD 0.13,whats the score on that getting 12f? cheers. |
|
By:
penzance
I don't take much notice of the Dosage Index. I was a fan 20 years ago but it deals with horse populations, not individuals. In other words it isn't too useful for one horse. My thoughts here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=95615607 (I am diomed on boards.ie, amadán on irishbloodstock.com) |
|
By:
Sint, that 2/1 was the initial tissue price published on the RP site. They'll update as the prices harmonise this evening.
Last months RP Stable Tour of Ballydoyle also gave hints. Shogun was the only 3yo horse to be described as "he did very well over the winter". He needs good ground though |
|
By:
penzance
Best if you give the horse name (or send me a message if you want to keep the name quiet - see top right of screen) I tend to work out if the horseis a C.C, C..T, or T.T. And I check the distances run by the sire and dam (their best races/later career races). Also I look at the ratings of all offspring of the dam and offspring of the second dam. This tells me is the horse comes from high grade or low grade stock. Group wins are not important to me (black type). I prefer ratings. Ancestors in the pedigree are important imo, especially the sires and dams low down in the pedigree i.e. the dam line, which is often the weakest part of the pedigree. |
|
By:
AOB will win the Derby and Oaks. Not sure with which horses though. Just because some of AOB's horses (shogun , idaho , UAR)lost doesn't necessarily mean they are second string bunches. Far from it. He'll have them peaked for Derby time.
|
|
By:
Unless one of AOB's horses wins handsomely at Leopardstown tomorrow and/or Claudio Monteverdi redeems himself next week in The Dante then AOB's main hopes will be UAR and Port Douglas. But Minding, in my view for "commercial value" reasons, will not line up for the Eposm Derby instead head straight for the Oaks, all being well. What a prospect that would be against So Mi Dar, a filly that should stay 12f and Minding, the 1000G winner yet to run beyond 8f?
|
|
By:
kincsem
not at all,Massaat,was just wondering if those figures were for likely stayers or not. tx. |
|
By:
Massaat
Dosage Index on pedigreequery.com says 1-1-4-2-0=8 DI=1.0 (or 1+1+4/2 = 4 divided by 4/2+2+0 = 4 so 4/1 = 1.0) I don’t use Dosage Index but if I do I prefer doing the calc using 5 generation, not the 4 generations recommended (and used above). Probably for 5 generations 4-3-8-2-0=17 giving 4+3+4 = 11 divided by 4+2+0=6 …. 11/6 = 1.83 Equinome calc is a guess Massaat’s sire Teofilo is imo a C.T Massaat’s dam Madany is imo a C.C. Eleven lifetime runs: 9 runs at 6f, 1 at 6.5f, 1 at 7f say she was a sprinter. Her sire Acclamation was a C.C and her dam Belle De Cadix a C.T (my guesses). What is Massaat? He inherits either a C or a T from his sire. He inherits a C from his dam. It is 50%/50% that he is C.T or C.C. I’m going to guess he is a C.T. Why? He never ran at 5f or 6f. His connections probably did not think he was a sprinter (C.C). His entries are Irish 2000 and St James Palace (both 8f), and the English and Irish Derbys and the King Edward VII (all 12f). He isn’t entered in sprint races. He is entered in mile and middle distance races. 1st race 7f: “closed on winner, ran on well” 2nd race 7f: “ran on well” 3rd race 7f: “outpaced by winner” 4th race 8f: “ridden to lead 2f out, headed, kept on same pace” These in-running comments suggest he doesn’t have high pace, and I’m interpreting that as he does not have sprinter (C.C) pace. However, although I think he is a C.T I wouldn’t be confident he would be suited to 12f. His dam is a C.C / sprinter. I would prefer to see middle-distance sires on his dam line. Instead he has Acclamation C.C; Law Society C.T; Auction Ring C.C. Contrast that dam line with the dam line of Derby winner Sir Percy Sires (nearest to furthest): Blakeney (Derby winner 12f); Sassafras (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner 12f) ; Pinza (Derby winner 12f). A coin flip that he could be a C.C or a C.T. ??? A couple of sprinter sires on his dam line. ??? There must be stronger candidates. I always wait until final declarations. No need to risk a non-runner. |
|
By:
A bit more about Massaat's dam line
Offspring of 2nd dam Belle De Cadix Barissimo G 104 Dolled Up F 106 In A Flash M 93 Madany F 93 Zeiting F 109 Offspring of 3rd dam Gourgandine Belle De Cadix F 90 Ratings shown are my estimate. There may be more offspring. Shown are what I have. The offspring close up i.e. Massaat's dam, Madany, and her siblings are good class without being top class. |
|
By:
Massatt will not be entered. will be surprised if he stays
|
|
By:
Kinsc, as others have pointed out , really good work and most importantly very kind of you to share.
I have a question as I have very limited knowledge of pedigrees. You said, Obviously if the sire is C.C and the dam is C.C, then the foal must be C.C. Is this an established fact or does it make assumptions in regard of dominant and recessive genes? thx again |
|
By:
Tirmizi is an incredibly interesting runner tomorrow in the Derrinstown.
Weld had a impressive winner of the Ballysax who they seemed intent on steering towards the Leger after the race. I would fancy big style for the Derby but the fact they have entered up this son of STS. Even after his maiden win Weld mentioned straight away he would go for a trial to test his Derby credentials. If he is fancied more for the Derby than Harzand, i think he has a great chance of outrunning his odds |
|
By:
Charlton2005
I am a retired accountant. You should direct your questions to Equinome. Their website says "The Equinome Speed Gene Test analyses a specific position within the myostatin (MSTN) gene, where the code contains either the DNA variant C or T. Each individual has two copies of the gene – one inherited from the dam and one from the sire, so there are three possible genetic combinations: C:C, C:T or T:T." Nothing about dominant / recessive. "Each individual has two copies of the gene" My "work" is guesswork. I have no results from Equinome. I guess the type based on the best distance of the horse (if the horse ran). |
|
By:
Interesting update from kincsem. Thanks
I am intrigued that no one has done the same with Minding My personal experience is that horses that are so good at one distance rarely can translate that at another. That doesn't mean that Minding cannot win the Oaks or Derby just that the brilliance she has shown at 8f will probably not be translated to 12f When I look at her pedigree I cannot actually see she will stay the trip. My money says she won't win either. Kincsem - thoughts? I would put her in the CC box but clearly you have done more research than I! |
|
By:
Good morning.
My guess is Minding is a C.T. I have her sire Galileo as a T.T and her dam Lillie Langtry as a C.C so the only possibility imo for Minding is a C.T. The Lillie Langtry C.C is based solely on her race record. Her dam Hoity Toity was unraced. Fwiw I notice (but haven't checked) many of the Ballydoyle Oaks and Derby runners have this breeding, one parent a T.T, the other a C.C, perhaps to guarantee a C.T. This morning I started second guessing myself about Galileo being a T.T so did a bit of checking Galileo has 12 winners from 104 runners at 5f-6f for a 14% win rate at those distances. I didn't find any wins at 5f. (Racing Post stallion data) Galileo progeny win rates at other distances say he is a stamina sire: 7-9f 41%; 10-11f 38%; 12-13f 34%; 1ff+ 31%. Cuis Ghaire was 3 of those 12 wins at 5-6f. She won three times at 6f but as a 2yo Minding won at 6f as a 2yo, but had only three opponents who have to date managed one win from 14 starts. There are 1,025 Galileo progeny in my pedigree database. About 40% are marked with a "type", although many are doubtful e.g. C.T? The 60% not marked might be unraced, or I didn't need to guess at their type (yet). But not one of the Galileo offspring is marked as a C.C |
|
By:
I said above I like to look at the dam line of a horse in detail if I am looking at Oaks and Derby possibles.
If is cut and dried C.C, C.T, T.T why bother? I'm sure there are shades of sprinting / staying ability withing those broad categories that are yet to be shown. You get sprinters that are only good at 5f-6f and others that are 7f-8f+. And stayers that get 2m, 2m2f, 2m4f. Minding's dam line sires: Danehill Dancer (a quality sprinter) Darshaan (a 12f classic winner) Shadeed (an 8f classic winner) Lorenzaccio (a quality miler who won the 10f Champion Stakes). A very interesting animal imo in Minding's pedigree is her 5th dam Vive La Reine (by Vienna out of Noble Lassie). Vive La Reine is a full sibling of Vaguely Noble, winner of the Racing Post Trophy, Prix de Guiche, Prix du Lys, Prix Niel, Prix de l'Arc De Triomphe. Minding's fourth dam, Alathea, produced two good ones, Great Commotion and Lead On Time, both rated about 123, both by Nureyev. Minding's second dam produced Count Of Limonade (112) and Lillie Langtry (118) Minding's dam was a quality runner, and Minding has quality on her dam line. |
|
By:
To my eyes, on the colts side, there are no real stand out 12f horses seen yet this season. Midterm could change that this week, but, IMO, he looks like a 4yo in the making.
Minding is extremely interesting, but Coolmore are more concerned with the breeding side, and oaks winner on a cv looks better than a derby loser. She will prob stick to the 3 oaks, English, Irish and Yorkshire, then Vermeille and a tilt at the arc, then packed off to stud. One filly does really excite me, and that's So Mi Dar, who does have a derby entry, but is not quoted by the bookies. Runs in the Musidora this week. Her win lto was better than the bare result suggests, with the 2nd and 3rd both nicely winning trials at Chester and Lingfield this week. We know she handles the course and being by Dar Re Mi, we know she'll get the trip. Gosden is generally not a trainer to pitch his fillies up against the colts in class 1 races, but it's interesting to note that he did in the Epsom trial. |
|
By:
So Mi Dar is going to the Epsom Oaks post the Musidora, all being well - she only went to the Derby trial due to a lack of fillies' conditions races and handicaps, accordong to the manager of the owner of the horse.
|
|
By:
|